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000
FXUS63 KDLH 012153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
453 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 453 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHICH ARE MAINTAINING STRENGTH
FOR NOW. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
GONE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AT 19Z AND ENTERING NW WI.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL.
THESE FEATURES WERE COMBINING TO PROMOTE A CU FIELD OVER THE AREA
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE LARGEST AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER THE THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO THE NW CORNER OF
THE FA AS THE NEXT SFC TROF APPROACHES. THIS TROF WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SFC TROFS EXIT THE AREA FOLLOWED BEHIND BY WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT.

THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION BEING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE WI FA WHERE A MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES UP FROM THE SW AND BRINGS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE AND
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PLACE IN THE MORNING. LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ATTM WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVES INTO MN AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE RAIN WILL REACH THE NW CORNER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

 GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RETREATING
SFC HIGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS INITIALLY MARGINAL
SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE ACTUAL PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW WILL
FAVOR NRN TIER OF CWA TUES NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS SATURATION THROUGHOUT
A DEEPER LAYER OCCURS. SUSPECT THAT WE MAY BE A BIT FAST ON PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT SOP WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS TIME APPROACHES.MAJORITY
OF MDLS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TAKING SHORTWAVE TROF INTO NRN PLAINS
EARLY THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF SFC LOW WITH BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF ASCENT
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. INITIAL GLANCE AT FCST
WIND/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGESTS SOME VIGOROUS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON NWP SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
RESULT. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN QUICKLY BY EARLY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING POPS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA. SFC HIGH PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR
NOW. A FRONTAL BDRY MAY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER SHALLOW FEATURE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AS SFC HIGH WILL STILL DOMINATE. TEMPS WILL TREND
BLO CLIMO LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LARGE AREA OF CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SWRN CORNER NEAR
KBRD. A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS LIFTING THIS AFTN
WITH BDRY LYR WARMING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES
AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MIXING LAYER MAXIMIZES DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5K AND 7K OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  73  57  76 /  10  20  10  40
INL  47  72  52  75 /  20  30  20  30
BRD  53  75  57  78 /  40  10  10  40
HYR  52  74  55  79 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  54  74  57  80 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 012030
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AT 19Z AND ENTERING NW WI.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL.
THESE FEATURES WERE COMBINING TO PROMOTE A CU FIELD OVER THE AREA
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE LARGEST AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER THE THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO THE NW CORNER OF
THE FA AS THE NEXT SFC TROF APPROACHES. THIS TROF WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SFC TROFS EXIT THE AREA FOLLOWED BEHIND BY WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT.

THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION BEING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE WI FA WHERE A MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES UP FROM THE SW AND BRINGS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE AND
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PLACE IN THE MORNING. LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ATTM WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVES INTO MN AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE RAIN WILL REACH THE NW CORNER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

 GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RETREATING
SFC HIGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS INITIALLY MARGINAL
SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE ACTUAL PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW WILL
FAVOR NRN TIER OF CWA TUES NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS SATURATION THROUGHOUT
A DEEPER LAYER OCCURS. SUSPECT THAT WE MAY BE A BIT FAST ON PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT SOP WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS TIME APPROACHES.MAJORITY
OF MDLS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TAKING SHORTWAVE TROF INTO NRN PLAINS
EARLY THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF SFC LOW WITH BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF ASCENT
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. INITIAL GLANCE AT FCST
WIND/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGESTS SOME VIGOROUS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON NWP SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
RESULT. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN QUICKLY BY EARLY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING POPS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA. SFC HIGH PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR
NOW. A FRONTAL BDRY MAY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER SHALLOW FEATURE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AS SFC HIGH WILL STILL DOMINATE. TEMPS WILL TREND
BLO CLIMO LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LARGE AREA OF CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SWRN CORNER NEAR
KBRD. A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS LIFTING THIS AFTN
WITH BDRY LYR WARMING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES
AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MIXING LAYER MAXIMIZES DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5K AND 7K OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  73  57  76 /   0  20  10  40
INL  47  72  52  75 /  30  30  20  30
BRD  53  75  57  78 /   0  10  10  40
HYR  52  74  55  79 /   0  20  10  30
ASX  54  74  57  80 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






000
FXUS63 KDLH 012030
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AT 19Z AND ENTERING NW WI.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL.
THESE FEATURES WERE COMBINING TO PROMOTE A CU FIELD OVER THE AREA
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE LARGEST AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER THE THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO THE NW CORNER OF
THE FA AS THE NEXT SFC TROF APPROACHES. THIS TROF WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SFC TROFS EXIT THE AREA FOLLOWED BEHIND BY WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT.

THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION BEING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE WI FA WHERE A MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES UP FROM THE SW AND BRINGS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE AND
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PLACE IN THE MORNING. LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ATTM WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVES INTO MN AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE RAIN WILL REACH THE NW CORNER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

 GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RETREATING
SFC HIGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS INITIALLY MARGINAL
SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE ACTUAL PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW WILL
FAVOR NRN TIER OF CWA TUES NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS SATURATION THROUGHOUT
A DEEPER LAYER OCCURS. SUSPECT THAT WE MAY BE A BIT FAST ON PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT SOP WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS TIME APPROACHES.MAJORITY
OF MDLS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TAKING SHORTWAVE TROF INTO NRN PLAINS
EARLY THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF SFC LOW WITH BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF ASCENT
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. INITIAL GLANCE AT FCST
WIND/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGESTS SOME VIGOROUS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON NWP SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
RESULT. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN QUICKLY BY EARLY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING POPS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA. SFC HIGH PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR
NOW. A FRONTAL BDRY MAY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER SHALLOW FEATURE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AS SFC HIGH WILL STILL DOMINATE. TEMPS WILL TREND
BLO CLIMO LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LARGE AREA OF CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SWRN CORNER NEAR
KBRD. A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS LIFTING THIS AFTN
WITH BDRY LYR WARMING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES
AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MIXING LAYER MAXIMIZES DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5K AND 7K OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  73  57  76 /   0  20  10  40
INL  47  72  52  75 /  30  30  20  30
BRD  53  75  57  78 /   0  10  10  40
HYR  52  74  55  79 /   0  20  10  30
ASX  54  74  57  80 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 012005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 012005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 012005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 012005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SUNSET ACROSS WC/SW MN
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A STRONGER
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHRA
ACROSS MAINLY SC/SW MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON COVERAGE IN SD THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS ON TUESDAY AS SKIES CLR BEHIND THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH PRONOUNCED SFC RETURN
SLY FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURGING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
BEHIND THE HIGH BUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AID
INCREASES IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SPARSE FOR WED DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND NO
INFLUENTIAL SFC FEATURES...LEAVING PURE CONVECTION AS THE MODE FOR
PRECIP GENERATION. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
DEVELOPMENT. CHCS INCRS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WED NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CROSS OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LARGER CULPRIT WILL BE A
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHOVE A DEVELOPMENT LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS WED EVE THEN INTO NRN MN EARLY THU MRNG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ALONG WITH IT...WHILE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER NE/IA
AND SHIFTS INTO SRN MN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
POTENTIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WX...WHETHER OVER NRN OR SRN MN AND
WRN WI...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO AT LEAST THINK
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE PARENT LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF INTO
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE ALONG WITH THE UPR LVL TROF DURG THE DAY
THU...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWFA BY
THEN. TEMPS WILL GO ON A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR WED-THU
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID
80S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LWR 70S...SPELLING A PAIR
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER WARM AND MUGGY DAYS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...COOLER DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
ESE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OR AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS DURG THE DAYTIME PERIODS...AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED BACK DOWN TO ARND 70 WITH LOWS TO ARND 50.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE START OF
THE FULL WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND...DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA ON MON COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MAKE FOR A SETUP OF SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 011753 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 16Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET THIS MORNING
AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE FA. TRENDED DOWN THE POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LARGE AREA OF CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SWRN CORNER NEAR
KBRD. A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS LIFTING THIS AFTN
WITH BDRY LYR WARMING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES
AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MIXING LAYER MAXIMIZES DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5K AND 7K OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  68  47  73  53 /  30  20  30  30
BRD  72  52  76  56 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  71  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  71  53  76  56 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011753 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 16Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET THIS MORNING
AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE FA. TRENDED DOWN THE POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LARGE AREA OF CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT SWRN CORNER NEAR
KBRD. A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS LIFTING THIS AFTN
WITH BDRY LYR WARMING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES
AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MIXING LAYER MAXIMIZES DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5K AND 7K OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  68  47  73  53 /  30  20  30  30
BRD  72  52  76  56 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  71  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  71  53  76  56 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON






000
FXUS63 KMPX 011657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011657
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN WC/SW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-9K BY LATE IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE WNW/NW THIS AFTN AND GUSTY EARLY. WINDS WILL
BACK OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS...WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING UP TO 10 KTS IN WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS WITH ONLY
AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SHRTWV
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH UP TO
18 KTS...THEN BACKING TO THE W/WSW THIS EVENING...AND DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S/SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011413
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 16Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET THIS MORNING
AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE FA. TRENDED DOWN THE POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  68  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  72  52  76  56 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  71  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  71  53  76  56 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 011413
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 16Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET THIS MORNING
AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE FA. TRENDED DOWN THE POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  68  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  72  52  76  56 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  71  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  71  53  76  56 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  80  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 011134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  80  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 011044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS MN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT WORKS ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CLEAR EAU BY 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THEREAFTER. WAVE CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS MONTANA WILL WORK ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND MN TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ISO
ACTIVITY OUT IN WRN MN AROUND 0Z...BUT NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO
BE ENOUGH TO PUT A MENTION IN TAFS. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS THE
REASON FOR THE RETURN OF 070-100 CIGS IN TAFS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS TODAY BEFORE THEY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...WE HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AN MVFR CIG THIS MORNING...BUT WE
HAVE DONE SO A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
FIELD...TAKING THOSE CIG RESTRICTIONS WITH. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF
THE TAF DRY...THOUGH WAVE OVER MT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z. HOWEVER...BY THEN WE WILL HAVE LOST
OUR DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THAT ENERGY
THAT COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AFTER DARK LOOKS TO BE HEADING FOR IA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 010947
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
447 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS THE TROUGH WORKING INTO WRN IA/SRN MN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR
SIOUX FALLS...AS EVIDENCE BY THE NICE SPIN SEEN WITHIN THE KFSD
REFLECTIVITY. AT THE SFC...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS MN...THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT AND T/TD DROP YOU COULD ASSOCIATE
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM ABOUT CANBY UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 8Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED ABOUT 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH LIFT FROM THE WAVE NEAR SIOUX FALLS EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SEE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT IN WRN
MN. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE CAMS HAVE HANDLED THIS TRAILING ACTIVITY
WELL...THE LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED IT THE BEST THIS MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SLOWLY DRAGGING POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF WRN WI. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NIL...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT GET UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO ERN IDAHO WILL BE SPREADING MID CLOUDS INTO WRN MN AS IT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL
FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR WRN MN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED POPS AFTER 3Z. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MN/WI TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALL CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DECIDED TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FORCING THAN MODEL GENERATED
QPF IN GOING WITH THE DRY FORECAST AFTER 3Z.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...DO EXPECT A DESCENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 16C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW US MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 AND MIXING THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
THE SFC ON THE NAM SPIT BACK OUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...SO DID
NUDGE HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH SIMPLY PUT US TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SIGNS OF EARLY FALL ARE IN THE AIR WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THERE ARE ALSO A STRONG COLD FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7-10 DAYS PRECEDED BY BRIEF BOUTS OF WARMTH AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...AND SURFACE RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE PLAINS REPLACES THE COOLER AIR MASS TIED TO
MONDAY`S TROUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN TERMS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MN. A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEARLY HUDSON BAY IN
APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO NW MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...WITH THE 01.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING QPF BULLS EYE NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
GENERATE 2000-2500J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
DECENT FLOW ALOFT WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEER AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH. SOUTH OF THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND STEAMY. WARMEST PLUME OF 850MB ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
FEATURE A LOT OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY
AND COOLER WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SO IT LOOKS A FAIRLY QUIET
EXTENDED UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF
WARM-UP AND SHARP COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING UP OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THUNDER THREAT LARGELY DONE ACROSS THE MPX AIRSPACE...BUT STRONG
UPPER WAVE BACK BY SIOUX FALLS STILL HAS TO WORK ACROSS SRN MN/WRN
WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE HRRR. BIGGER QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEE OUT THERE NOW WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
ATMO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRATUS...BUT CIGS AT THE START
ARE LARGELY UP AROUND 10K FT...SO WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO. FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF THE RAP THOUGH WITH STATUS EVENTUALLY FILLING IN
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH...WHICH AT 6Z
STRETCHED FROM ABOUT NEW ULM TO MILLE LACS LAKE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY QUICK BY WNW WINDS IN THE
MORNING...WITH MOST OF LABOR DAY GOING BY WITH VFR CONDS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN PROVIDE US WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEEING NOW FAVORED ME TOWARD KEEPING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 018 CIGS WE HAD IN THE TAF...BUT WITH CIGS
STILL ABOVE 5K FT...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THOSE RESTRICTIONS
HAPPENING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  40  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  40  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...KK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 010533
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THUNDER THREAT LARGELY DONE ACROSS THE MPX AIRSPACE...BUT STRONG
UPPER WAVE BACK BY SIOUX FALLS STILL HAS TO WORK ACROSS SRN MN/WRN
WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE HRRR. BIGGER QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEE OUT THERE NOW WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
ATMO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRATUS...BUT CIGS AT THE START
ARE LARGELY UP AROUND 10K FT...SO WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO. FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF THE RAP THOUGH WITH STATUS EVENTUALLY FILLING IN
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH...WHICH AT 6Z
STRETCHED FROM ABOUT NEW ULM TO MILLE LACS LAKE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY QUICK BY WNW WINDS IN THE
MORNING...WITH MOST OF LABOR DAY GOING BY WITH VFR CONDS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN PROVIDE US WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEEING NOW FAVORED ME TOWARD KEEPING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 018 CIGS WE HAD IN THE TAF...BUT WITH CIGS
STILL ABOVE 5K FT...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THOSE RESTRICTIONS
HAPPENING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 010533
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THUNDER THREAT LARGELY DONE ACROSS THE MPX AIRSPACE...BUT STRONG
UPPER WAVE BACK BY SIOUX FALLS STILL HAS TO WORK ACROSS SRN MN/WRN
WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE HRRR. BIGGER QUESTION MARK
REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CERTAINLY THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEE OUT THERE NOW WILL HELP MOISTEN THE
ATMO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRATUS...BUT CIGS AT THE START
ARE LARGELY UP AROUND 10K FT...SO WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO. FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF THE RAP THOUGH WITH STATUS EVENTUALLY FILLING IN
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH...WHICH AT 6Z
STRETCHED FROM ABOUT NEW ULM TO MILLE LACS LAKE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY QUICK BY WNW WINDS IN THE
MORNING...WITH MOST OF LABOR DAY GOING BY WITH VFR CONDS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN PROVIDE US WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...STRATIFORM RAIN WE ARE SEEING NOW FAVORED ME TOWARD KEEPING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUB 018 CIGS WE HAD IN THE TAF...BUT WITH CIGS
STILL ABOVE 5K FT...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THOSE RESTRICTIONS
HAPPENING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S BCMG W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  55  76 /  20  30  10  30
INL  48  73  51  76 /  20  30  30  20
BRD  53  76  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
HYR  52  75  56  80 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  55  76 /  20  30  10  30
INL  48  73  51  76 /  20  30  30  20
BRD  53  76  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
HYR  52  75  56  80 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  55  76 /  20  30  10  30
INL  48  73  51  76 /  20  30  30  20
BRD  53  76  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
HYR  52  75  56  80 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  55  76 /  20  30  10  30
INL  48  73  51  76 /  20  30  30  20
BRD  53  76  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
HYR  52  75  56  80 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 312353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO SW MN ALONG FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD. MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND EVEN A FEW IN WESTERN WISC. WILL HAVE STORMS IN
TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KEAU BEING THE LAST SITE FOR THE
STORMS TO END. ONLY KAXN AND WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD ESCAPE STORMS.
AFTER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
DAYBREAK. QUIET ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
STORMS THE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN WISC SUGGEST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES. HAVE STORM THREAT
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 312353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO SW MN ALONG FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD. MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND EVEN A FEW IN WESTERN WISC. WILL HAVE STORMS IN
TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KEAU BEING THE LAST SITE FOR THE
STORMS TO END. ONLY KAXN AND WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD ESCAPE STORMS.
AFTER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
DAYBREAK. QUIET ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
STORMS THE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN WISC SUGGEST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES. HAVE STORM THREAT
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 312353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO SW MN ALONG FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD. MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND EVEN A FEW IN WESTERN WISC. WILL HAVE STORMS IN
TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KEAU BEING THE LAST SITE FOR THE
STORMS TO END. ONLY KAXN AND WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD ESCAPE STORMS.
AFTER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
DAYBREAK. QUIET ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
STORMS THE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN WISC SUGGEST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES. HAVE STORM THREAT
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 312353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO SW MN ALONG FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD. MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND EVEN A FEW IN WESTERN WISC. WILL HAVE STORMS IN
TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH KEAU BEING THE LAST SITE FOR THE
STORMS TO END. ONLY KAXN AND WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD ESCAPE STORMS.
AFTER STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
DAYBREAK. QUIET ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
STORMS THE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN WISC SUGGEST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES. HAVE STORM THREAT
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 312325 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD MVFR/VFR CIGS BETWEEN
2500 AND 4000 FT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND THERE WAS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS AFFECTING THE KINL AND KBRD
TERMINALS. THERE WAS ALSO A STORM SOUTH OF DULUTH AND MOVING
NORTH AND APPROACHING THE KDLH TERMINAL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING...AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
AREAS. THE STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE THE
KHYR ARE HAS A LOW RISK OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM BR/FG. THE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP AID THE FORMATION OF BR/FG.

THE KHYR WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR ISSUES EARLY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WINDS ALOFT
BELOW 2 KFT AND WEAK WIND NEAR THE SURFACE.

WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP
LIFT AND SCATTER THE LOW CIGS. MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE VFR
CIGS DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 312019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 312019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 311954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL
ADJUST AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SVR WX PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS AFTN CAP /BASED ON
18Z KMPX SOUNDING/ WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE/IA/MN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGER STORM NORTH OF KOMA AS OF 19Z IS A
REFLECTION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS JET ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO.

SHORT TERM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS /HRRR/RUC/ HAVE
DEPICTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY 00Z...WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER/SVR ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. IN
ADDITION...THESE SAME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES ARND 2-4Z ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT...AS SAID BEFORE...THE AFTN CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVENING EVENT.
OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SFC FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. BY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
MPX FA...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHRA IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SPELL A WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REGION WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT STAYS S OF THE REGION MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE FAIRLY INEFFECTIVE CAPPING WITHIN A CONTINUED DEEPLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WEAK BUCKLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW CAN EASILY SPARK
ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A HANDFUL OF TSTMS ACRS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SPOTTY SLGT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE
FCST. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SOME PRECIP WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL GO ON A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WLY TO SLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MON WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
REGION TUE EVE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER MT...SHIFTING IT INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN BY MIDDAY THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AND THIS LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND MN WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED THRU THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MN THU...SO THIS
MAY ALTER THE DURATION OF HAVING POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THOUGH THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY DAYBREAK FRI MRNG...THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION DURG THE DAY ON FRI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
RELATIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL PASSING THRU. BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...MORE PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DOMINATE THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS SE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S AND LWR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL
ADJUST AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEAL OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE ATTM. LINE OF
STORMS FROM NEAR STC TO SW MN WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NEWD. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FACTORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 311750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEAL OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE ATTM. LINE OF
STORMS FROM NEAR STC TO SW MN WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NEWD. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FACTORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 311750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEAL OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE ATTM. LINE OF
STORMS FROM NEAR STC TO SW MN WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NEWD. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FACTORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 311750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEAL OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE ATTM. LINE OF
STORMS FROM NEAR STC TO SW MN WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NEWD. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FACTORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 311707
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST
AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311707
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST
AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311707
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST
AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 311707
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
KRWF/KFRM AS OF 17Z. WILL USE REGIONAL RADAR AND MOVEMENT TRENDS
FOR THE FIRST 3 HRS AS THIS LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE. KRWF/KSTC WILL BE MOST IMPACTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELSEWHERE...TSRA/SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 21Z...WITH A
BETTER CHC AFT 00Z AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN FROM THE
S/SW...WITH A MORE SW/WSW BY THE LATE AFTN IN WC/SW MN AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. EC MN/WC WI WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 00Z FROM THE S/SSW.

AM CONCERN WITH AREAS FROM SC/EC MN...EASTWARD ACROSS WC WI AFT 2Z
AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL ADJUST
AS NECESSARY BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KRNH/KEAU LOOK MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

BASED ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL AFT 20-21Z...WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS FROM
20-23Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. A BETTER CHC OF
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFT 2Z...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA AND LOW VSBYS. AFT 6Z...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TYPICAL 09-14Z TIME FRAME. IF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT VFR CONDS UNTIL AFT 16-18Z ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KDLH 311419
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  50  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  40  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311419
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  50  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  40  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311419
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  50  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  40  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311419
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  50  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  40  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311138 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WI BENEATH THE SFC
HIGH HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO ERN MN/WRN WI ON SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SRLY AND PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THAT SNUCK INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APPART AS THEY WORK ACROSS MN AND FEEL
VCSH MENTIONS AT MN TERMINALS IS ENOUGH FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE HRRR/ARW TREND FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 20Z ON
A LEAD TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ACTIVITY NOT LOOKING TO
REALLY GET GOING IN MN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...GFSLAMP IS WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS...BUT 925-850
RH FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE THE STRATUS BEING FAVORED
FOR NRN MN...SO KEPT CIGS VFR TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT THE CERTAIN LEVEL FOR MSP GETTING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY IMPACTING WI...WHILE STRONGER STORMS
TONIGHT STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT IS THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTING THE
FIELD...WHICH IS WHY THE TEMPO GROUP IS STILL THERE FROM 1-4Z.
MOVED THE VCTS MENTION UP TO 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS...SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG TO
MIX OUT LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH THAT LOOKING TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WI BENEATH THE SFC
HIGH HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO ERN MN/WRN WI ON SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SRLY AND PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THAT SNUCK INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APPART AS THEY WORK ACROSS MN AND FEEL
VCSH MENTIONS AT MN TERMINALS IS ENOUGH FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE HRRR/ARW TREND FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 20Z ON
A LEAD TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ACTIVITY NOT LOOKING TO
REALLY GET GOING IN MN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...GFSLAMP IS WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS...BUT 925-850
RH FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE THE STRATUS BEING FAVORED
FOR NRN MN...SO KEPT CIGS VFR TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT THE CERTAIN LEVEL FOR MSP GETTING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY IMPACTING WI...WHILE STRONGER STORMS
TONIGHT STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT IS THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTING THE
FIELD...WHICH IS WHY THE TEMPO GROUP IS STILL THERE FROM 1-4Z.
MOVED THE VCTS MENTION UP TO 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS...SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG TO
MIX OUT LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH THAT LOOKING TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WI BENEATH THE SFC
HIGH HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO ERN MN/WRN WI ON SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SRLY AND PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THAT SNUCK INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APPART AS THEY WORK ACROSS MN AND FEEL
VCSH MENTIONS AT MN TERMINALS IS ENOUGH FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE HRRR/ARW TREND FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 20Z ON
A LEAD TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ACTIVITY NOT LOOKING TO
REALLY GET GOING IN MN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...GFSLAMP IS WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS...BUT 925-850
RH FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE THE STRATUS BEING FAVORED
FOR NRN MN...SO KEPT CIGS VFR TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT THE CERTAIN LEVEL FOR MSP GETTING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY IMPACTING WI...WHILE STRONGER STORMS
TONIGHT STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT IS THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTING THE
FIELD...WHICH IS WHY THE TEMPO GROUP IS STILL THERE FROM 1-4Z.
MOVED THE VCTS MENTION UP TO 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS...SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG TO
MIX OUT LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH THAT LOOKING TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WI BENEATH THE SFC
HIGH HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO ERN MN/WRN WI ON SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SRLY AND PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THAT SNUCK INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APPART AS THEY WORK ACROSS MN AND FEEL
VCSH MENTIONS AT MN TERMINALS IS ENOUGH FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE HRRR/ARW TREND FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 20Z ON
A LEAD TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL ACTIVITY NOT LOOKING TO
REALLY GET GOING IN MN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...GFSLAMP IS WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS...BUT 925-850
RH FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATE THE STRATUS BEING FAVORED
FOR NRN MN...SO KEPT CIGS VFR TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT THE CERTAIN LEVEL FOR MSP GETTING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY IMPACTING WI...WHILE STRONGER STORMS
TONIGHT STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT IS THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTING THE
FIELD...WHICH IS WHY THE TEMPO GROUP IS STILL THERE FROM 1-4Z.
MOVED THE VCTS MENTION UP TO 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS...SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG TO
MIX OUT LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH THAT LOOKING TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 310838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND ITS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE
HERE...THE CAMS STILL LEAVE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL SURGE OF THE LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SODAK. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND MOST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
NODAK AND ON ITS WAY TO NW MN...ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LLJ TO GET SCT
CONVECTION DOWN INTO NE NEB. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/NMM/ARW ALL SHOW
THIS BAND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO WORKED SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS MN THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO START WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MN AND LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO WI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS /SEE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MPX
LAST NIGHT/.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H85 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20C. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL PUT A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THAT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID
ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. WHERE WE ARE SEEING
SOME VARIABILITY THOUGH WITH THE CAMS IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF WHAT YOU
COULD CONSIDER THE MAIN SHOW FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE STRONG WAVE ON
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS. THIS FEATURE HAS A FEW
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE CAMS THAT
ARE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE MPXWRF AND ARW...AND
ALTHOUGH IT ENDS AT 21Z...YOU GET A SENSE FROM THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST...IT MAY BE GOING THE SAME WAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE IMPACT OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD HIGHER
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE POSITION OF THE
SFC FEATURES WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION...THE MAIN TREND SEEN WITH
THE CAMS AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS DELAY ITS START
SOME...WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE CAPPING SEEN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR OMAHA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT UP IN MN COMING A BIT
CLOSER TO 00Z. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS
IOWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPINGING WRLY MID LEVEL JET WITH
A 40-50 KT SWRLY LLJ LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE SHEAR. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH THE
DAY1 SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING FROM I-90 SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 0-3/0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-60
KTS WITH VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT ACROSS
IOWA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING A STRONG MCS WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE NMM/ARW CERTAINLY SHOW
EVOLVING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY
SEE THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPLIT THE MPX CWA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. CERTAINLY THE HRRR MSLP FORECAST SHOWS SOME MERIT
TO THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH TWO SFC LOWS NOTED BY 21Z. ONE UP IN NRN
MN AND THE OTHER IN WRN KS.

FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE NMM AND THE ARW TO A LESSER
EXTENT HANGING UP ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA AS
THEY BOTH DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE WAKE IN THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS A BIT
LONGER BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH IT WOULD SET UP MORE IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS...SO IT COULD POSE MORE OF
A HYDRO THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT A BAND OF NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK EXISTING FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD
FRONT. EVENTUALLY...A LINE OR TWO OF STORMS LOOKS TO FORM...WITH THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WHERE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FROM ERN NEB INTO
WRN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONGER TERM WILL INCLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA AS WE SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK... BUT DIVERGES A FAIR AMOUNT BY THE WEEKEND... WHICH
LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND NECESSITATES THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA SNEAK BACK INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY... WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH... WITH A LONG PERIOD OF MAINLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA VARIES QUITE A BIT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...
AND AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING SPECIFIC. UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH... WE/LL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST... WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING VARYING AMPLITUDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT... KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BOUNDARY
HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KMPX 310552
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG HAD
GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST...SO CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE DURING
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
CYCLONIC CONTINUES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THESE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
LATER TONIGHT...ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WC WI AS THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETREAT ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BOTH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES...ALONG A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE TO CONCLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE UPPER JET CORE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A JET
COUPLET FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS...SHOULD LEAD
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS JET COUPLET WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING MORNING TSRA COULD LIMIT
FULL AFTERNOON ISOLATION. THE BEST AREA FOR BOTH JET STRUCTURE/HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ACROSS IOWA. FAR SC/SW MN
COULD ALSO BE IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER SVR WX POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED MONITOR STRENGTH OF THIS JET ALONG WITH TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WX THREAT...PWATS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5"
RANGE. IF ANY TSRA BEGIN TO TRAIN OR BACK BUILD...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING
HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

POTENT COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA BY
DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH IT PROGRESSING JUST BARELY INTO WRN WI
AND SERN MN. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN
FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BUT
STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...MEANING THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE BEEN TAPPED BY THIS POINT. SUPPORTING THIS FACT IS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWFA AND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND A SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER OVER KS. HIGH
PRES WILL THEN NUDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL WNW-ESE. A FEW BUCKLES IN THE FLOW WITHIN A
PERSISTENTLY DEEP MOIST ATMO MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME LATE MON THRU MUCH OF WED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
E INTO THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY THEN OHIO VALLEY BY WED MORNING...
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...HELPING SET UP A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND AID IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THU THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
QPF NOR STORM STRENGTH...BUT FINDING SOLID DRY TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. CANNOT SAY ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT ATTM...BUT ALSO
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE TIMEFRAME OVER ANOTHER FOR BEST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE
WORKWEEK...CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID-UPR 70S INTO THE LWR 80S BY
FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS
WHICH ON SMALL SCALES MAY CREATE SOME VARIETY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
BY SAT... THIS LOW PRES COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S AND E OF THE MPX
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR A COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 310552
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG HAD
GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS ROBUST...SO CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE DURING
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
CYCLONIC CONTINUES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THESE LOW
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
LATER TONIGHT...ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WC WI AS THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETREAT ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BOTH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES...ALONG A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE TO CONCLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE UPPER JET CORE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A JET
COUPLET FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS...SHOULD LEAD
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS JET COUPLET WHICH LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING MORNING TSRA COULD LIMIT
FULL AFTERNOON ISOLATION. THE BEST AREA FOR BOTH JET STRUCTURE/HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ACROSS IOWA. FAR SC/SW MN
COULD ALSO BE IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER SVR WX POTENTIAL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED MONITOR STRENGTH OF THIS JET ALONG WITH TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WX THREAT...PWATS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5"
RANGE. IF ANY TSRA BEGIN TO TRAIN OR BACK BUILD...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING
HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

POTENT COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MPX CWFA BY
DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH IT PROGRESSING JUST BARELY INTO WRN WI
AND SERN MN. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN
FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD BUT
STRENGTH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...MEANING THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE BEEN TAPPED BY THIS POINT. SUPPORTING THIS FACT IS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWFA AND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER OVER WRN
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND A SECONDARY LOW PRES CENTER OVER KS. HIGH
PRES WILL THEN NUDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL WNW-ESE. A FEW BUCKLES IN THE FLOW WITHIN A
PERSISTENTLY DEEP MOIST ATMO MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME LATE MON THRU MUCH OF WED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT
E INTO THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY THEN OHIO VALLEY BY WED MORNING...
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...HELPING SET UP A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND AID IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THU THROUGH SAT. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
QPF NOR STORM STRENGTH...BUT FINDING SOLID DRY TIME WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. CANNOT SAY ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT ATTM...BUT ALSO
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE TIMEFRAME OVER ANOTHER FOR BEST TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE
WORKWEEK...CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID-UPR 70S INTO THE LWR 80S BY
FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS
WHICH ON SMALL SCALES MAY CREATE SOME VARIETY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
BY SAT... THIS LOW PRES COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S AND E OF THE MPX
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR A COOLING OF TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER CAMS SHOWING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS MN WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
LLJ...STARTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH IN THE MORNING TO ALL MN
TERMINALS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCT ACTIVITY CLEAR DOWN INTO NC NEB. THE
ATMO HAS ALREADY TIPPED ITS HAND WHEN IT COMES TO FOG AT EAU...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM DOWN THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 050-080 LEVEL IN ERN
MN INTO WRN WI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
VSBYS AT RNH/EAU AS THEY SKIP BETWEEN 050-080 CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES /WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG/. STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY WITH THE 00Z CAMS IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME FIRST...SO DID DELAY AFTERNOON TS MENTION AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM WHAT THE 00Z TAF HAD. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE
AFTERNOON TS MENTION AT AXN...WITH AXN LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY BE
WEST OF THAT ROUND OF STORMS.

KMSP...BEGINNING TO GAIN CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED WITH INTRODUCING A
VCSH GROUP. BY 9Z...SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR WHETHER OR NOT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THAT AMD TO SEE IF WE NEED
ANY STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MENTION. 00Z TAF LOOKED TO HAVE GOOD TIMING
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA...SO STUCK WITH THAT. IS POTENTIAL
THAT MSP COULD GET SPLIT BY ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH BETTER LLJ FORCING DOWN
IN IOWA AND GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE GOING ACROSS NRN MN. STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT/FORCING...ODDS LOOK BETTER THAT MSP WILL SEE SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY THAN STORMS MISSING THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/TSRA ENDING EARLY. VFR BY AFTERNOON WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310533 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  72  53  72 /  80  30  10  30
INL  57  70  49  72 /  80  20  10  30
BRD  60  73  53  75 /  70  20  20  20
HYR  64  75  52  75 /  80  50  10  30
ASX  63  73  54  73 /  80  50  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310248 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 310248 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310239
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TEH REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310239
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TEH REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310239
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TEH REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310239
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TEH REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







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