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000
FXUS63 KDLH 060904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH NW
MN. ALOFT...THERE WAS A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THESE FEATURES WERE
GENERATING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN HEADING FOR WI. ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY DRY BELOW 8K FT AS SEEN ON 00Z INL SOUNDING AS WELL AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES AS A RESULT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ASSISTED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOISTURE IS SPARSE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THESE FEATURES AND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
MENTION. REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WAA IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT DID LOWER THEM
A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS ALBEDO FACTOR WILL BE HIGH WITH THE
LACK OF CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP TONIGHT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS IS THE FASTEST AND HAS BEEN
IGNORED. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR TIMING OF THE SNOW
WHICH MEANS POPS JUST FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND REACHES NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE FOUND
IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW WHICH WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A POTENT VORT
MAX ACCOMPANYING THE SFC LOW. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR THIS FRONT...EXCEPT NEAR THE ARROWHEAD AND
KEPT SOME POPS THERE AS A RESULT. GFS IS TOO WET AND HAS BEEN
TOSSED. KEPT THE COMPROMISE FROM THE OTHER MODELS. A NW FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH CAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE
A SMALL POP OVER IRON COUNTY ANYWAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CAA PATTERN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO DOES THE WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AND KEPT THE SMALL POPS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES
NEARBY. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATED
CAA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. THERE
ARE BOTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS SOME
INCONSISTENCY WITHIN EACH MODEL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE BEYOND
TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST AND ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS
EARLIER FORECAST.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AS WELL. WE
INCREASED POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS.

WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS OVERALL THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS
SOME SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIP MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK
WAVE IMPACT THE AREA. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES DO NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG SO WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE GFS IS
MUCH COLDER BY WEDNESDAY SENDING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -14C ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 12Z WED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
ALSO COOLED QUITE A BIT OVER ITS PREVIOUS RUN...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
THE GFS. THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THE LOW LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WHICH PUSHES THE COLDER AIR FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. WE COOLED TEMPS SOME FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
DID NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE GFS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST WITH IT BECOMING
LESS AMPLIFIED BY MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL CREATE AN
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GEM SUPPORTS THE WARMER ECMWF
ON THURSDAY. WE DID COOL HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS THE GFS.. WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO KEEP
LAKESIDE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND WE DID DROP THOSE TEMPS SOME.

WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE THIRTIES SUNDAY...THEN WARM THEN INTO THE
FORTIES ON TUESDAY. WE COOLED TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID THIRTIES
NORTH TO MID FORTIES FAR SOUTH...AND HAVE THEM MAINLY IN THE
THIRTIES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LLWS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION LATE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH SCATTERED WORDING AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...A CORE OF COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR FLURRIES AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KINL AND KHIB TERMINALS THROUGH
MORNING. A FAST MOVING RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  19  31  19 /  10  40  10  20
INL  29  15  28  15 /  10  40  20  30
BRD  34  21  34  21 /  10  30  10  20
HYR  31  21  32  17 /  10  30  10  20
ASX  32  23  33  18 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH NW
MN. ALOFT...THERE WAS A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THESE FEATURES WERE
GENERATING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN HEADING FOR WI. ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY DRY BELOW 8K FT AS SEEN ON 00Z INL SOUNDING AS WELL AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES AS A RESULT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ASSISTED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOISTURE IS SPARSE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THESE FEATURES AND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
MENTION. REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WAA IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT DID LOWER THEM
A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS ALBEDO FACTOR WILL BE HIGH WITH THE
LACK OF CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP TONIGHT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS IS THE FASTEST AND HAS BEEN
IGNORED. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR TIMING OF THE SNOW
WHICH MEANS POPS JUST FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND REACHES NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE FOUND
IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW WHICH WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A POTENT VORT
MAX ACCOMPANYING THE SFC LOW. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR THIS FRONT...EXCEPT NEAR THE ARROWHEAD AND
KEPT SOME POPS THERE AS A RESULT. GFS IS TOO WET AND HAS BEEN
TOSSED. KEPT THE COMPROMISE FROM THE OTHER MODELS. A NW FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH CAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE
A SMALL POP OVER IRON COUNTY ANYWAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CAA PATTERN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO DOES THE WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AND KEPT THE SMALL POPS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES
NEARBY. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATED
CAA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. THERE
ARE BOTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS SOME
INCONSISTENCY WITHIN EACH MODEL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE BEYOND
TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST AND ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS
EARLIER FORECAST.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AS WELL. WE
INCREASED POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS.

WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS OVERALL THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS
SOME SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIP MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK
WAVE IMPACT THE AREA. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES DO NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG SO WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE GFS IS
MUCH COLDER BY WEDNESDAY SENDING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -14C ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 12Z WED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
ALSO COOLED QUITE A BIT OVER ITS PREVIOUS RUN...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
THE GFS. THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THE LOW LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WHICH PUSHES THE COLDER AIR FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. WE COOLED TEMPS SOME FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
DID NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE GFS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST WITH IT BECOMING
LESS AMPLIFIED BY MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL CREATE AN
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GEM SUPPORTS THE WARMER ECMWF
ON THURSDAY. WE DID COOL HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS THE GFS.. WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO KEEP
LAKESIDE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND WE DID DROP THOSE TEMPS SOME.

WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE THIRTIES SUNDAY...THEN WARM THEN INTO THE
FORTIES ON TUESDAY. WE COOLED TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID THIRTIES
NORTH TO MID FORTIES FAR SOUTH...AND HAVE THEM MAINLY IN THE
THIRTIES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LLWS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION LATE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH SCATTERED WORDING AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...A CORE OF COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR FLURRIES AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KINL AND KHIB TERMINALS THROUGH
MORNING. A FAST MOVING RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  19  31  19 /  10  40  10  20
INL  29  15  28  15 /  10  40  20  30
BRD  34  21  34  21 /  10  30  10  20
HYR  31  21  32  17 /  10  30  10  20
ASX  32  23  33  18 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 060838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.

THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.

THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.

THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060838
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.

THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060604
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LLWS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION LATE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH SCATTERED WORDING AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...A CORE OF COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR FLURRIES AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KINL AND KHIB TERMINALS THROUGH
MORNING. A FAST MOVING RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   3  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   4  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -1  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   3  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 060604
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LLWS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION LATE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH SCATTERED WORDING AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...A CORE OF COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR FLURRIES AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KINL AND KHIB TERMINALS THROUGH
MORNING. A FAST MOVING RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   3  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   4  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -1  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   3  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 060524
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1124 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 060524
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1124 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY LLWS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW AT 40 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED WITH A SCATTERED WORDING FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS VORT MAX
WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BRING
ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR A STRATUS LAYER/FLURRIES WITH MVFR
CIGS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KINL AND KHIB
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 060049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY LLWS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW AT 40 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED WITH A SCATTERED WORDING FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS VORT MAX
WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BRING
ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR A STRATUS LAYER/FLURRIES WITH MVFR
CIGS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KINL AND KHIB
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 060049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY LLWS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW AT 40 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED WITH A SCATTERED WORDING FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS VORT MAX
WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BRING
ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR A STRATUS LAYER/FLURRIES WITH MVFR
CIGS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KINL AND KHIB
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 060049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY LLWS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW AT 40 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED WITH A SCATTERED WORDING FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS VORT MAX
WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BRING
ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR A STRATUS LAYER/FLURRIES WITH MVFR
CIGS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KINL AND KHIB
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 060007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 052209
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 052209
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 052209
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 052209
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 052202
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 052202
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052202
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A 1040MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER W OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SNAKING WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWRD...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MEAGER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK. ONCE THIS
TROF MOVES THRU...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME BUT WITH A MORE
PACIFIC COMPONENT RATHER THAN ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...SFC FLOW WILL
REMAIN W TO SW THRU THE DAY TMRW. THUS...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED WAA TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MN. THIS COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL SPELL
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON FRI THAT WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF /AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER WAY
AROUND/. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS
SIMILAR...WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT DID ALL OF
FEBRUARY...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM STILL ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRN RIDGE
WILL REMAIN...BUT THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...ALLOWING
FOR A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS. AS WE WORK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE STARTS WORKING EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS...A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST ARE COMING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES...THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND LIMITED ON MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW GOING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94...SO
LIMITED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE SATURDAY NIGHT
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING TWO
CAMPS WHEN IN COMES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MPX AREA. THE
NCEP MODELS /INCLUDING THE SREF/ KEEP THE MPX AREA MAINLY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A NICE BURST OF SNOW TO THE
TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES. THE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO STEM FROM HOW FAR SOUTH
ENERGY FROM A WAVE GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WILL EXTEND...WITH THE
MORE BULLISH MODELS BRINING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT POPS AT 30S OR LESS IN PLACE...JUST ORIENTED THE
CHANCE POPS AREA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SNOW FALLING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...WE WILL SEE
THE UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT STORM TRACK LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 925 TEMPS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10C AND
14C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW DEEP WILL WE MIX. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO AT LEAST 925MB...WITH THAT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GFS KEEPS MIXING PRETTY SHALLOW /LIKE
AROUND 950 MB/. THIS WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THIS WARMING GOES INTO
BUILDING A STRONG INVERSION...WITH HIGHS HOLDING ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. WITH BLENDED FORECAST USED...THE
ECMWF IS OUT ON ITS OWN...SO CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. BESIDE THOSE WARM HIGHS...SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MON AND TUE
NIGHTS...SO WE WILL BE STARTING THE MELT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KDLH 051759 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 051759 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 051759 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 051759 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KMPX 051758
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH
WINDS AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW
THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH
RATHER LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
FAR WEST. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 051758
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH
WINDS AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW
THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH
RATHER LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
FAR WEST. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 051203
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
603 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 18Z...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST...AND AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KHIB/KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 051203
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
603 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 18Z...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST...AND AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KHIB/KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL



000
FXUS63 KMPX 050909
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT W/NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL



000
FXUS63 KDLH 050853
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050853
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 050853
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050853
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 050534 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050534 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 050534 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050534 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE KBRD AREA
HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT BY THE LATE EVENING. THE JET WIND SPEEDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR THE LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 050427 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050427 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050427 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050427 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050427 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING IN THE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS ARE CALM...SUCH AS NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY. LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /   0   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /   0   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 050403
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT W/NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL



000
FXUS63 KMPX 050403
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT W/NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 050004 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /  10   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /  10   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 050004 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THERE WERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 5 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /  10   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /  10   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS GOING BELOW 10 KT FROM
AROUND 03Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION AT RWF AS A SNOW SHOWER
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
02-03Z THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS GOING BELOW 10 KT FROM
AROUND 03Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION AT RWF AS A SNOW SHOWER
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
02-03Z THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL



000
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS GOING BELOW 10 KT FROM
AROUND 03Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION AT RWF AS A SNOW SHOWER
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
02-03Z THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042216
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 042216
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WIND CHILLS ARE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS CRUDELY IDENTIFIED A SUPERPOSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS LED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH WERE A BYPRODUCT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AS WELL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM...SO DO NOT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ISSUED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEATHER WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
ADVERTISED IS THE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

DURING THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE STARTING WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH ALL OF FEBRUARY...RIDGE WEST/TROUGH
EAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE THE WRN RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OUT IN THE
PAC BETWEEN HI AND AK...WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THERE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE
THE TWO MODELS ENDING UP ABOUT 180 DEGS OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTING BEYOND
TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE
OF WEAK FAST MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL CAUSE THE H85-H7 TEMP
GRADIENT TO BUCKLE SLIGHT...WITH RESULTANT WAA HELPING AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAD TO PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHETHER THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ANY PRECIP IS DEBATABLE...BUT WITH
BOTH WAVES...MODELS ARE CREATING SPORADIC LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...SO
ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS THE BLENDING PROCEDURE TO COME UP WITH TO
REMAIN. SINCE MOST OF THESE WAVE LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW...BUT IF ANY SORT OF
TIMING CHANGES OCCURS TO WHERE THESE WAVES WILL COME IN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE PLACE OF
SNOW AS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH
40S POSSIBLE AS WELL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

THE REAL WARMTH...AT LEAST THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE
THE 2ND THROUGH THE FOURTH OF NOVEMBER LAST YEAR COMES AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE AREA. IN ITS
WAKE...THOSE 925 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETTER THAN +10C. FOR NOW...WE
ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S...BUT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SHOWS THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE AN EXTRA 10 DEGREES ON TOP OF
THAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE THAT FAR AS THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CLEAN IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THOSE SW WINDS END UP BEING. BESIDE HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE
40S...WE WILL SEE DEWPS RISE INTO THE 30S...SO EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH SOME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY BIG MODEL SPREAD GETS RATHER LARGE. THE ECMWF SHOW US
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON HIGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY OFF TO THE RACED TO END THE WEEK. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH COMING IN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ITS WARMEST DAY COMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BOOT. BASICALLY...BY FRIDAY...WE
HAVE THE ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS PUSHING +10C WITH DEWPS IN THE 40S
WHILE THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS PUSHING -20C AND DEWPS BELOW ZERO F. THE
DISCREPANCIES START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AK.
THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONG/SHARPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENS THE WAVE...ALLOWING THE ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AM A LITTLE
SCEPTICAL ABOUT HOW STRONG THE GFS IS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 042146
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /  10   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /  10   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 042146
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /  10   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /  10   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 042146
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /  10   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /  10   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN FLURRIES...SO HAVE VFR IN THE TAFS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TAKE
ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY.

KMSP...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KDLH 041223
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 041223
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 041223
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 041223
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
550 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
550 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
550 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINED THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS. WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
BROKEN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /   0   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /   0   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








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