Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 051748
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AS OF MIDDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL..BUT THE RIDGE AXIS HAS TRANSLATED
EASTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO INCREASE..BUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE
SUNNY IN MOST LOCALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OUT
WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND PRESSURE
FALLS..BUT WE WILL ALSO BE MIXING INTO A LAYER ALOFT WHERE WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 4-6 KFT LAYER AGL ARE WEAKER PER THE 12Z KMPX/KINL
SOUNDINGS..SO WE DO NOT EXPECT A CONTINUED ACCELERATION OF WINDS
AND GUST SPEEDS. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF THAT WITH A
SHORT LIVED BURST OF 17-22 MPH GUSTS FOR 1-2 HRS AFTER BREAKING
THE MORNING INVERSION /WHERE THE MAX WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED IN
THE SOUNDINGS/ OUT WEST..BUT SINCE THEN GUST SPEEDS HAVE
DIMINISHED A BIT. THE OTHER PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECASTS A BIT MORE..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS LOW AS 12-14 PERCENT AS OF MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE..CHANGES WERE RELATIVELY MINOR AND UPDATES TO REFLECT
THE ABOVE THINKING ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

THE AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE ESE TO SSE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ALOFT. THIS IS
BORDERLINE FOR INCLUDING LLWS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT IT OUT FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADD LATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ADDED -SHRA TO FORECASTS...BUT KEPT -TSRA OUT
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CHANCES OF STORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AT TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  30  40  40
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  30  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  50  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  40  40  30
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KDLH 051748
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AS OF MIDDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL..BUT THE RIDGE AXIS HAS TRANSLATED
EASTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO INCREASE..BUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE
SUNNY IN MOST LOCALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OUT
WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND PRESSURE
FALLS..BUT WE WILL ALSO BE MIXING INTO A LAYER ALOFT WHERE WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 4-6 KFT LAYER AGL ARE WEAKER PER THE 12Z KMPX/KINL
SOUNDINGS..SO WE DO NOT EXPECT A CONTINUED ACCELERATION OF WINDS
AND GUST SPEEDS. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF THAT WITH A
SHORT LIVED BURST OF 17-22 MPH GUSTS FOR 1-2 HRS AFTER BREAKING
THE MORNING INVERSION /WHERE THE MAX WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED IN
THE SOUNDINGS/ OUT WEST..BUT SINCE THEN GUST SPEEDS HAVE
DIMINISHED A BIT. THE OTHER PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECASTS A BIT MORE..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS LOW AS 12-14 PERCENT AS OF MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE..CHANGES WERE RELATIVELY MINOR AND UPDATES TO REFLECT
THE ABOVE THINKING ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

THE AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE ESE TO SSE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ALOFT. THIS IS
BORDERLINE FOR INCLUDING LLWS IN THE FORECAST. KEPT IT OUT FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADD LATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ADDED -SHRA TO FORECASTS...BUT KEPT -TSRA OUT
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CHANCES OF STORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AT TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  30  40  40
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  30  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  50  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  40  40  30
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 051724
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS
MORNING... BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
BACK...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
AND WRN MN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE
AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...
FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING. MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF
TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO START BUT AS A WMFNT APCHS FROM THE S...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY TAKE OVER. LOW SCT CLOUDS WITH MIDLVL CEILINGS WILL
PRECEDE MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
INTO TMRW WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
RATHER THAN MORE SUSTAINED RAINS...WHICH LOOK TO COME MID-TO-LATE
DAY WED. MODEST IMPROVEMENT MAY COME WITH THE RAINFALL BUT
CEILINGS STILL LOOK TO HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 5SM. WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY SE THROUGHOUT
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 1700FT THRESHOLD
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVE...THEN DROP BELOW MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AS PRECIP COMES IN...SOME OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
WASHED OUT...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE BUT JUST ABOVE
THE 1700FT MARK. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL TMRW AFTN AND
CHCS FOR TSTMS ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 051724
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS
MORNING... BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
BACK...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
AND WRN MN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE
AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...
FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING. MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF
TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO START BUT AS A WMFNT APCHS FROM THE S...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY TAKE OVER. LOW SCT CLOUDS WITH MIDLVL CEILINGS WILL
PRECEDE MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
INTO TMRW WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
RATHER THAN MORE SUSTAINED RAINS...WHICH LOOK TO COME MID-TO-LATE
DAY WED. MODEST IMPROVEMENT MAY COME WITH THE RAINFALL BUT
CEILINGS STILL LOOK TO HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 5SM. WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY SE THROUGHOUT
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 1700FT THRESHOLD
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVE...THEN DROP BELOW MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AS PRECIP COMES IN...SOME OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
WASHED OUT...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE BUT JUST ABOVE
THE 1700FT MARK. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL TMRW AFTN AND
CHCS FOR TSTMS ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 051724
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS
MORNING... BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
BACK...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
AND WRN MN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE
AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...
FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING. MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF
TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO START BUT AS A WMFNT APCHS FROM THE S...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY TAKE OVER. LOW SCT CLOUDS WITH MIDLVL CEILINGS WILL
PRECEDE MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
INTO TMRW WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
RATHER THAN MORE SUSTAINED RAINS...WHICH LOOK TO COME MID-TO-LATE
DAY WED. MODEST IMPROVEMENT MAY COME WITH THE RAINFALL BUT
CEILINGS STILL LOOK TO HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 5SM. WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY SE THROUGHOUT
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 1700FT THRESHOLD
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVE...THEN DROP BELOW MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AS PRECIP COMES IN...SOME OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
WASHED OUT...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE BUT JUST ABOVE
THE 1700FT MARK. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL TMRW AFTN AND
CHCS FOR TSTMS ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 051150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 051150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 051150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 051150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 051150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 051150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 051138 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH THE CLOUD LINE ESSENTIALLY
FROM DXX TO MSP AND EAU. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY
WHICH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH. CIGS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND A PASSING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO ARRIVE MID EVENING WITH CIGS AOB FL017
OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051138 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH THE CLOUD LINE ESSENTIALLY
FROM DXX TO MSP AND EAU. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY
WHICH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH. CIGS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND A PASSING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO ARRIVE MID EVENING WITH CIGS AOB FL017
OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 051138 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH THE CLOUD LINE ESSENTIALLY
FROM DXX TO MSP AND EAU. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY
WHICH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH. CIGS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND A PASSING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO ARRIVE MID EVENING WITH CIGS AOB FL017
OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050844
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRNEDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOSITURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS OF 040-050 TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA AT KRWF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-16
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. ESE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING TO 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF 040-050 DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050844
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRNEDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOSITURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS OF 040-050 TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA AT KRWF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-16
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. ESE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING TO 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF 040-050 DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050844
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRNEDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOSITURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS OF 040-050 TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA AT KRWF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-16
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. ESE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING TO 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF 040-050 DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 050841
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME CONFIDENCE IN GETTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO KBRD AND
KHYR AFTER END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 050841
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. GENERALLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TODAY...DRY AND MILD. SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...STRONGEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND THUS DO NOT
EXPECT RH/WINDS TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO PRECIP WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO WHILE THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
AGGRESSIVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY
AIR AT LOW/MID LEVELS COULD LIMIT PRECIP THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE
GROUND...AND AM ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH REGARD TO SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CRITICAL TO SUSTAINING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE
LESS-THAN-STELLAR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MUCAPE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...ELSEWHERE WARMER IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES NORTH FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY BEING DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS...BUT AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY LENGTHY BREAK IN PRECIP. THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALMOST DUE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEW POINT VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 60...AND 0-1KM MIXING RATIO VALUES
NEAR 10 G/KG...APPROACHING TO EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP NOR ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TO PROVIDE SMALL
SCALE ASCENT...THIS WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FULLY
UTILIZED TO BRING THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS MIGHT
ONLY REACH THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE POSITIONED IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINN THURSDAY...THEN WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MN ZONES. THE SFC
LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BEING NEAREST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST
FORCING. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KHIB/KELO ALL SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURS
TIME FRAME AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5" AND LONG SKINNY CAPE.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY AROUND SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME CONFIDENCE IN GETTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO KBRD AND
KHYR AFTER END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  45  62  51 /   0  20  30  30
INL  72  43  69  57 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  72  52  70  60 /   0  60  60  60
HYR  70  45  72  59 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  69  42  66  57 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 050538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME CONFIDENCE IN GETTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO KBRD AND
KHYR AFTER END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  57  54  70 /  30  50  50  70
INL  44  65  55  71 /  10  50  60  70
BRD  48  72  60  73 /  60  60  60  70
HYR  47  73  60  74 /  50  40  40  60
ASX  44  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 050538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME CONFIDENCE IN GETTING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO KBRD AND
KHYR AFTER END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  57  54  70 /  30  50  50  70
INL  44  65  55  71 /  10  50  60  70
BRD  48  72  60  73 /  60  60  60  70
HYR  47  73  60  74 /  50  40  40  60
ASX  44  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 050354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS OF 040-050 TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA AT KRWF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-16
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. ESE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING TO 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF 040-050 DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS OF 040-050 TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA AT KRWF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-16
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. ESE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING TO 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF 040-050 DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 050000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY
BUT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WON/T SHOW UP AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HENCE...VFR CONTINUES. NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BECOMING E TO SE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-16 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY
BUT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WON/T SHOW UP AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HENCE...VFR CONTINUES. NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BECOMING E TO SE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-16 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 050000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY
BUT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WON/T SHOW UP AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HENCE...VFR CONTINUES. NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BECOMING E TO SE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-16 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY
BUT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WON/T SHOW UP AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HENCE...VFR CONTINUES. NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BECOMING E TO SE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-16 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 042339
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO SENT OUT A QUICK GRID
UPDATE FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AS OF ISSUANCE TIME TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  68  44  57 /   0   0  30  50
INL  32  72  44  65 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  40  71  48  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  34  72  47  73 /   0  10  50  40
ASX  33  68  44  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 042339
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO SENT OUT A QUICK GRID
UPDATE FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AS OF ISSUANCE TIME TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  68  44  57 /   0   0  30  50
INL  32  72  44  65 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  40  71  48  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  34  72  47  73 /   0  10  50  40
ASX  33  68  44  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 042339
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO SENT OUT A QUICK GRID
UPDATE FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AS OF ISSUANCE TIME TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  68  44  57 /   0   0  30  50
INL  32  72  44  65 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  40  71  48  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  34  72  47  73 /   0  10  50  40
ASX  33  68  44  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 042339
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO SENT OUT A QUICK GRID
UPDATE FOR SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AS OF ISSUANCE TIME TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  68  44  57 /   0   0  30  50
INL  32  72  44  65 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  40  71  48  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  34  72  47  73 /   0  10  50  40
ASX  33  68  44  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KMPX 042054
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT
THRU TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S
/WHICH IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES
INCRS BY MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE
VCSH TO ADDRESS THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z
TMRW. BREEZY N WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042054
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA TDA HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE CDFNT FROM YDA WHICH HAS STALLED
OUT OVER THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CAA AS EVIDENCED BY NLY WINDS ALL DAY
LONG HAS KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCRS
TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED
FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. HOWEVER...
PER OVERALL MODEL TREND FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...THIS NWD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWER AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF
THE RETURN OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO SRN MN TUE. IN ADDITION...A NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE
DAY TUE...AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO KEEP THE FCST DRY UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY TUE MRNG THEN
KEPT THE PRECIP ONLY IN FAR SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF MN TUE. HAVE
ALSO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN LOW-CHC RANGE DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND ALSO CONFINED TSTM MENTION TO TUE WITH NO TSTM
MENTION FOR TNGT. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY SIMILAR TMRW AS WHAT
WAS RECORDED TDA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70...DUE TO
NO APPRECIABLE TEMP ADVECTION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM ARND 40
IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA TO ARND 50 NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED/MORE HUMID
AND AN ANOMALOUS FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL FOCUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY...ANY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
BASICALLY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON FRONTAL PASSAGES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL.

AS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH A
SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY PARAMETERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEEP WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHC/S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PWATS ANOMALIES ARE NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THURSDAY WITH
VALUES NEAR 1.30" TO 1.50". THE MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS BLW
70H ARE OVER THE TOP WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS HIGH AS 4-5 ABV
NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHERE DOES THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN OR FOCUS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE IS A HINT OF A STRONG LLJ FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MN/WI DOES ANY TYPE OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT
THRU TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S
/WHICH IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES
INCRS BY MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE
VCSH TO ADDRESS THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z
TMRW. BREEZY N WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KDLH 042010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  68  44  57 /   0   0  30  50
INL  32  72  44  65 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  40  71  48  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  34  72  47  73 /   0  10  50  40
ASX  33  68  44  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 042010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S GOING INTO TONIGHT. THESE ARE
ALL FACTORS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WHILE
AREAS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S...INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO VERY LOW 70S.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS DELAYED THAT TIMING...SO NOW HAVE A
DRY FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION
OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN
THURSDAY...AND FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN MN/WI IN THE
STRONG WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE 7-9 DEGREE C RANGE...AND WITH
INCREASING SRLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY WILL HAVE RISEN 3
TO 5 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WARMING THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO MN...PROVIDING MORE LIFT IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LI`S WILL BE DOWN TO -2 IN
SRN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COOL EAST FLOW AND THE
RESULTING MARINE LAYER MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A STABILIZING FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AN EVEN STRONGER
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
WORKING WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
GENERATION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ALSO HELP BOOST
UPDRAFTS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF
OUTLOOKS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  68  44  57 /   0   0  30  50
INL  32  72  44  65 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  40  71  48  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  34  72  47  73 /   0  10  50  40
ASX  33  68  44  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 041735 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 041735 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041735 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 041733
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT THRU
TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S /WHICH
IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES INCRS BY
MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z TMRW. BREEZY N
WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041733
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT THRU
TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S /WHICH
IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES INCRS BY
MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z TMRW. BREEZY N
WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041733
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT THRU
TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S /WHICH
IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES INCRS BY
MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z TMRW. BREEZY N
WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041733
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT THRU
TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S /WHICH
IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES INCRS BY
MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z TMRW. BREEZY N
WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041733
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION TDA MAKES FOR SOLID VFR CONDS THRU
TNGT. CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT THRU
TMRW AS HIGH PRES EXITS AND A WMFNT APPROACHES FROM THE S /WHICH
IS ACTUALLY THE STALLED CDFNT FROM YESTERDAY/. CHANCES INCRS BY
MIDDAY FOR SCATTERED -RA BUT TIMING OF THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE VCSH TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE S BEFORE 18Z TMRW. BREEZY N
WINDS TDA SETTLE DOWN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE E OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
SE TMRW AND INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR TNGT THRU TMRW WITH NO PRECIP...THEN PRECIP CHCS INCRS
TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KDLH 041220
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041220
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041220
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041220
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041220
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 041220
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 041142 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT RETURNING BACK TO THE NORTH...AND EXPECT
RAIN TO REMAIN CONFINED TO IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL
VEER EASTERLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. CHC SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS.
WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041142 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT RETURNING BACK TO THE NORTH...AND EXPECT
RAIN TO REMAIN CONFINED TO IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL
VEER EASTERLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. CHC SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS.
WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041142 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT RETURNING BACK TO THE NORTH...AND EXPECT
RAIN TO REMAIN CONFINED TO IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL
VEER EASTERLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. CHC SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS.
WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 041142 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT RETURNING BACK TO THE NORTH...AND EXPECT
RAIN TO REMAIN CONFINED TO IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL
VEER EASTERLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. CHC SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS.
WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 040848
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN (1+") THAT FELL IN AND AROUND KEAU WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY BR MAY FORM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN
THE TAF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ON MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH PROFILE DATA SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING AROUND 18 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
SLACKENING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THIS CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040848
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN (1+") THAT FELL IN AND AROUND KEAU WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY BR MAY FORM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN
THE TAF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ON MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH PROFILE DATA SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING AROUND 18 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
SLACKENING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THIS CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040848
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN (1+") THAT FELL IN AND AROUND KEAU WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY BR MAY FORM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN
THE TAF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ON MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH PROFILE DATA SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING AROUND 18 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
SLACKENING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THIS CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040848
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SUNK SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF...WHEN AND TO WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT WAY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH NOT ONLY THIS PERIOD...BUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS
HAVE SHOWN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
NAM...WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HOPWRF MEMBERS AND
RAP ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PROPAGATION OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IOWA INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB
JET ON THE 00Z NAM WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS ITS
NOSE SETS UP OVER NRN IA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL ISSUES
WITH THIS SOLUTION. FIRST...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST
STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL VERY LIKELY STEER THE LLJ TO
THE EAST...NOT NORTH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD INDICATE. AFTER MUCH
COLLABORATION BETWEEN ABR...FSD...DMX...AND ARX...DECIDED TO REDUCE
POPS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX TO ACCOUNT
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT. TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE CAMS AT
TIMES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A BETTER
COURSE TO TAKE. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED...THE
06Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.
OF COURSE BEST LAID PLANS...

SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY BUT THEY MAY DECREASE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 70
AREA WIDE. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME PLACES OF
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST WITH POPS IN GENERALLY EVERY DAY IN THE
PERIOD. I TRIED TO DELINEATE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD(6 HRS OR
MORE) BASED ON MODEL TRENDS.

INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
AND DIRECTED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP TREND INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE CWA
FRO THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT MORE AFTER THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER WITH MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL TRY
AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY/UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION IN LATER
PERIODS...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE ORPHAN
CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SLOW THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION EAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING THIS INTO THE REGION ,ATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD. WILL HOLD ONTO MODEL GUIDANCE OF LIKELY POPS
FOR NOW.

WITH THE GENERAL CLOUDY PERIOD DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS 0.50 TO
0.80 OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHER END QPF COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN (1+") THAT FELL IN AND AROUND KEAU WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY BR MAY FORM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN
THE TAF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ON MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH PROFILE DATA SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING AROUND 18 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
SLACKENING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THIS CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040840
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 040840
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY AND MILD TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO MIXING BEYOND
800MB...LEADING TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WEAKEN TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OTHERWISE IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

TUESDAY...INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST WHERE SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH RH VALUES WILL RISE. GENERALLY THE DRIEST
AIR WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S....WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.

THE WAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY...AND
FINALLY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW/WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR CAN
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

LATEST ECM/GEM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LVL RIDGING
RETURNS BRIEFLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A RETURN FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  42  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
INL  64  38  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  67  41  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  67  42  70  47 /   0   0  10  50
ASX  64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 040527 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  45  57 /   0  10  40  60
INL  34  74  45  65 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  41  70  50  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  37  69  48  73 /   0  10  50  50
ASX  37  70  45  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 040527 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  45  57 /   0  10  40  60
INL  34  74  45  65 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  41  70  50  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  37  69  48  73 /   0  10  50  50
ASX  37  70  45  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 040527 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  45  57 /   0  10  40  60
INL  34  74  45  65 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  41  70  50  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  37  69  48  73 /   0  10  50  50
ASX  37  70  45  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 040527 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  45  57 /   0  10  40  60
INL  34  74  45  65 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  41  70  50  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  37  69  48  73 /   0  10  50  50
ASX  37  70  45  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 040343
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN (1+") THAT FELL IN AND AROUND KEAU WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY BR MAY FORM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN
THE TAF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ON MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH PROFILE DATA SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING AROUND 18 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
SLACKENING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THIS CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 15-20 KTS.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 040343
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN (1+") THAT FELL IN AND AROUND KEAU WITH THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY BR MAY FORM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN
THE TAF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ON MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY MID MORNING WITH PROFILE DATA SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING AROUND 18 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
SLACKENING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THIS CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 15-20 KTS.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 032350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EARLY EVENING...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...AS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY JUST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DECOUPLING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KHYR AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING
BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  68  37  59 /  10   0   0  10
INL  36  67  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  68  41  70 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  41  68  37  69 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  39  68  37  70 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 032350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EARLY EVENING...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...AS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY JUST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DECOUPLING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KHYR AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING
BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  68  37  59 /  10   0   0  10
INL  36  67  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  68  41  70 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  41  68  37  69 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  39  68  37  70 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 032350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EARLY EVENING...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...AS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY JUST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DECOUPLING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KHYR AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING
BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  68  37  59 /  10   0   0  10
INL  36  67  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  68  41  70 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  41  68  37  69 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  39  68  37  70 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 032350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EARLY EVENING...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...AS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY JUST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DECOUPLING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KHYR AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING
BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  68  37  59 /  10   0   0  10
INL  36  67  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  68  41  70 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  41  68  37  69 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  39  68  37  70 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 032347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z FOR KEAU WITH GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KRNH AND KMSP THROUGH 03Z. SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KSTC...KRWF AND KAXN THIS EVENING. CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONTINUING ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH VFR MONDAY. NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WITH 10-15 KNOTS THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
 WINDS S 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z FOR KEAU WITH GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KRNH AND KMSP THROUGH 03Z. SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KSTC...KRWF AND KAXN THIS EVENING. CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONTINUING ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH VFR MONDAY. NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WITH 10-15 KNOTS THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
 WINDS S 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z FOR KEAU WITH GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KRNH AND KMSP THROUGH 03Z. SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KSTC...KRWF AND KAXN THIS EVENING. CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONTINUING ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH VFR MONDAY. NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WITH 10-15 KNOTS THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
 WINDS S 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z FOR KEAU WITH GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KRNH AND KMSP THROUGH 03Z. SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR KSTC...KRWF AND KAXN THIS EVENING. CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONTINUING ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH VFR MONDAY. NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WITH 10-15 KNOTS THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
      10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
 WINDS S 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 032103
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KDLH TO KBRD AND KHYR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KBRD AND KDLH
AREAS...AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KHYR. WHILE WINDS WILL GUST TO
UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. IT WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  68  37  59 /  10   0   0  10
INL  36  67  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  68  41  70 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  41  68  37  69 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  39  68  37  70 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 032103
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KDLH TO KBRD AND KHYR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KBRD AND KDLH
AREAS...AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KHYR. WHILE WINDS WILL GUST TO
UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. IT WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  68  37  59 /  10   0   0  10
INL  36  67  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  68  41  70 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  41  68  37  69 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  39  68  37  70 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 032024
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN WAS NOT ADVERTISED WELL IN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS DO HAVE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN THRU THE
EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SC/SE SD
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER ON MORE TSRA BY MID/LATE ALONG
THIS FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW ON THE CONFIDENCE SCALE. BEST BET IS CONTINUE THE VCTS DURING
THE AFTN...WITH A TEMPO WHICH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
HIGHEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR AFT 3Z...WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA POSSIBLE AT KEAU AFT 3Z...THRU 6Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AND BECOME MORE N/NE MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...AM FOLLOWING THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ON THE
EXPANSION OF HIGHER RADAR RETURNS ARND 20-22 NW OF THE
TERMINAL...AND MOVING THRU THE TERMINAL AREA BETWEEN 22-01Z.
TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE TERMINAL WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSRA AFT
22Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG IT WILL OCCUR AND ENDING TIME.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A MORE NE
FLOW MONDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities