000
FXUS63 KDLH 222039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE SOURCE FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING CAA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FCST WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND INTO NRN WI
WHERE H85 TEMPS REACH NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO
KEEP TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM IN
THE 20S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IF WINDS GO CALM
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FURTHER.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 KFT THURSDAY. DEW POINTS/RH WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RH REACHING THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH...15-20 PERCENT IN SPOTS...WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES AND ACROSS NORTHERN WIS. WINDS THURSDAY
WILL BE GUSTY...MAINLY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THE IN THE 60S. COOLER READINGS WILL BE
FOUND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP KEEP
THE NORTHLAND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE...SO IT MAY BE TIME TO PULL IN THOSE POTTED PLANTS. I DID NOT
PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OUR OFFICE IS NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THERE
SHOULD EB WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES COVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KINL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS OR VSBYS FROM -RA AND BR...AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND THEN CLEAR OUT. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KDLH DUE THE STRONG WINDS COMING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  30  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  64  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  36  62  27  68 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  31  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KMPX 221737
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME PROGRESSION... ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY
SLOW... IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR MANY MANY DAYS IS SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION... GIVING WAS TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING FAIR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS... BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AFTER THAT. BUT... UNTIL
THEN THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST WE SHOULDN/T
HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
ONCE THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF CONCERN GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN
LATELY. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT AND SOME WINDS TO KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHES IN LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA... WITH WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE SUNSHINE... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH OUR PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS FOR THE FA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND VERY LOW
DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT IN OUR WI CWA AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR WI COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. USED THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL AS A START FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CONSRAW/CONSMOS. THIS BROUGHT DEW POINTS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS NEAR FREEZING
INDICATED AROUND LADYSMITH WITH MIDDLE 30S AS FAR WEST AS THE
MN/WI BORDER AND WELL AS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
INDICATED FROST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE STARTING WITH LOWS
36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO SLOWLY UNWIND WITH
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE NAM AT THIS POINT IS THE FASTEST ON FRIDAY
ON BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MN CWA ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GEM/GFS AND EURO WOULD KEEP ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST DRY. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND KEPT THE 18Z-24Z POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THE GEM/GFS/EURO THEN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LEAST IN THE FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT (RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

PROGRESSING DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOWS TWO CAMPS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS IS WET ACROSS US SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO IS BASICALLY DRY. THE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS TORMENTED US FOR THE
PAST FIVE DAYS REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AND DEEPENS
AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT FROM THE NORTH. THE EURO IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTUALLY BUILDS THE SURFACE
HIGH BACK WEST FOR A TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEM DOES NOT
HAVE AN UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS FOR MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HENCE...CHANCES POPS INDICATES FOR
MANY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

THE CIPS ANALOGS WERE LOOKED AT OVERNIGHT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRED WITH OUR PATTERN AHEAD. USING THE 144 HOUR
ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWED ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING OVER SD/NE/KS/IA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER
FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GFS
HAVING LOW PRESSURE FORMING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MEANDERING TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EURO WOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. SO WE MAY DODGE SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CLIMB BACK ABOVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A
CHANGE AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY WORKS INTO THE
REGION. UNTIL THAT OCCURS... HOWEVER... WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING... WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO DROPPING INTO MVFR WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
HIGH... BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THINGS AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD VARY A BIT MORE THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH VARIABILITY OR NEED
FOR AMENDMENTS AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTED TRENDS WITH A REASONABLE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON COULD IMPROVE A BIT
QUICKER THAN SUGGESTED... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL
STAY DOWN NEAR 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT WITH PATCHES OF RAIN WHEN THEY COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 3-4SM FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE
N/NNE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THE BIG IMPROVMENT TO VFR
TONIGHT MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HOURS OR SO FROM FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221729
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES COVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KINL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS OR VSBYS FROM -RA AND BR...AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND THEN CLEAR OUT. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KDLH DUE THE STRONG WINDS COMING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND RIBBON OF -RA/DZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REGION OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR SINKS
INTO THE NRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT 1030 AM...VIS SAT
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAD PUSHED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MN...AND REACHED A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE..TO BEMIDJI. BASED
ON RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH THE RANGE CITIES BY NOON...REACHING A KBRD TO KDLH LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 4-5 PM/...THEN PASSING OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  57  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  65  37  66 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  36  61  32  66 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  32  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1034 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND RIBBON OF -RA/DZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REGION OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR SINKS
INTO THE NRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT 1030 AM...VIS SAT
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAD PUSHED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MN...AND REACHED A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE..TO BEMIDJI. BASED
ON RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH THE RANGE CITIES BY NOON...REACHING A KBRD TO KDLH LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 4-5 PM/...THEN PASSING OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO WIN THE BATTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT THE DAY AND
REMAIN VFR AT KINL. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
FROM LARGELY IFR/LIFR TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR...THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  37  57  36 /  80  10   0   0
INL  70  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  58  42  65  37 /  80  10   0   0
HYR  52  38  61  32 /  50  40   0   0
ASX  45  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO WIN THE BATTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT THE DAY AND
REMAIN VFR AT KINL. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
FROM LARGELY IFR/LIFR TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR...THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  37  60  36 /  70  10   0   0
INL  66  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  60  42  65  37 /  70  10   0   0
HYR  53  38  61  32 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  49  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP

000
FXUS63 KMPX 221016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
516 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE STORY TODAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DAMP
CONDITIONS AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO IT IS
DEFINITELY JACKET WEATHER OUT THERE. WE COOLED TEMPERATURES TODAY BY
A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WI WHICH SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TODAY AND WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST...WE MIGHT ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM 6-8
DEGREES FROM WHERE TEMPERATURES STAND NOW. YESTERDAY...ST.CLOUD ONLY
HIT 50 DEGREES FOR A HIGH GIVEN THE COOLING FROM THE NEARLY 0.50" OF
RAIN THAT FELL. THE RAIN WON`T BE NEARLY AS HEAVY TODAY...BUT THE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUFFER AND THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY. THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD
COVER IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE NICE DIURNAL
WARMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUD CLEAR BEFORE OR AROUND THE NOON HOUR IN CENTRAL MN...THE
WE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW WITH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING TREND DOES MEAN WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
/OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER/ OFF THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NICE DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
FOG EARLY THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. IT IS NOT
A BIG CONCERN THROUGH BECAUSE WE ARE QUICKLY ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WE LEFT THE
FOG OUT FOR NOW. WE ALSO KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY
EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS IA/WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN. WE JUST DON`T HAVE THE INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED TOO
MUCH WITH THIS. IN FACT...WE EVEN ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF CHANGING
THE WEATHER FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TODAY. IT
ALL AMOUNTS TO THE SAME THING...COOL AND DAMP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH OUR PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS FOR THE FA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND VERY LOW
DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT IN OUR WI CWA AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR WI COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. USED THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL AS A START FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CONSRAW/CONSMOS. THIS BROUGHT DEW POINTS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS NEAR FREEZING
INDICATED AROUND LADYSMITH WITH MIDDLE 30S AS FAR WEST AS THE
MN/WI BORDER AND WELL AS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
INDICATED FROST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE STARTING WITH LOWS
36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO SLOWLY UNWIND WITH
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE NAM AT THIS POINT IS THE FASTEST ON FRIDAY
ON BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MN CWA ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GEM/GFS AND EURO WOULD KEEP ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST DRY. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND KEPT THE 18Z-24Z POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THE GEM/GFS/EURO THEN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LEAST IN THE FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT (RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

PROGRESSING DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOWS TWO CAMPS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS IS WET ACROSS US SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO IS BASICALLY DRY. THE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS TORMENTED US FOR THE
PAST FIVE DAYS REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AND DEEPENS
AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT FROM THE NORTH. THE EURO IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTUALLY BUILDS THE SURFACE
HIGH BACK WEST FOR A TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEM DOES NOT
HAVE AN UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS FOR MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HENCE...CHANCES POPS INDICATES FOR
MANY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

THE CIPS ANALOGS WERE LOOKED AT OVERNIGHT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRED WITH OUR PATTERN AHEAD. USING THE 144 HOUR
ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWED ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING OVER SD/NE/KS/IA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER
FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GFS
HAVING LOW PRESSURE FORMING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MEANDERING TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EURO WOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. SO WE MAY DODGE SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CLIMB BACK ABOVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

IFR CEILINGS WITH VFR/MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. NOT TOO MUCH
TO ADD HERE BEYOND THE TAF. THE SHOWERS ARE HIT AND MISS...SO THE
VIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WITH MUCH PRECISION. THE CEILINGS
WILL HANG BETWEEN 500-1200 FT THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM NW-SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKC IN MANY SPOTS BY THE LATE
EVENING. THREW IN A FEW HOUR TEMPO FOR FOG AT A COUPLE SITES AFTER
SKIES CLEAR AND BEFORE DRIER AIR MAKES IT IN.

KMSP...

LIFR OR IFR LOOKS TO LINGER THREW MOST OF THE MORNING WITH THE
CEILINGS BEING THE BIGGEST PROBLEM. EVENTUALLY THE AIRPORT SHOULD
GET ABOVE 1000 FT TODAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 1700 FT SHOULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME IN AND OUT OF THE AIRPORT. RAIN MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VIS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 4SM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

000
FXUS63 KMPX 220910
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE STORY TODAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DAMP
CONDITIONS AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO IT IS
DEFINITELY JACKET WEATHER OUT THERE. WE COOLED TEMPERATURES TODAY BY
A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WI WHICH SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TODAY AND WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST...WE MIGHT ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM 6-8
DEGREES FROM WHERE TEMPERATURES STAND NOW. YESTERDAY...ST.CLOUD ONLY
HIT 50 DEGREES FOR A HIGH GIVEN THE COOLING FROM THE NEARLY 0.50" OF
RAIN THAT FELL. THE RAIN WON`T BE NEARLY AS HEAVY TODAY...BUT THE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUFFER AND THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY. THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD
COVER IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE NICE DIURNAL
WARMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUD CLEAR BEFORE OR AROUND THE NOON HOUR IN CENTRAL MN...THE
WE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW WITH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING TREND DOES MEAN WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
/OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER/ OFF THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NICE DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
FOG EARLY THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. IT IS NOT
A BIG CONCERN THROUGH BECAUSE WE ARE QUICKLY ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WE LEFT THE
FOG OUT FOR NOW. WE ALSO KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY
EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS IA/WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN. WE JUST DON`T HAVE THE INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED TOO
MUCH WITH THIS. IN FACT...WE EVEN ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF CHANGING
THE WEATHER FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TODAY. IT
ALL AMOUNTS TO THE SAME THING...COOL AND DAMP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH OUR PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS FOR THE FA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND VERY LOW
DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT IN OUR WI CWA AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR WI COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. USED THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL AS A START FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CONSRAW/CONSMOS. THIS BROUGHT DEW POINTS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS NEAR FREEZING
INDICATED AROUND LADYSMITH WITH MIDDLE 30S AS FAR WEST AS THE
MN/WI BORDER AND WELL AS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
INDICATED FROST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE STARTING WITH LOWS
36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO SLOWLY UNWIND WITH
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE NAM AT THIS POINT IS THE FASTEST ON FRIDAY
ON BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MN CWA ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GEM/GFS AND EURO WOULD KEEP ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST DRY. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND KEPT THE 18Z-24Z POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THE GEM/GFS/EURO THEN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LEAST IN THE FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT (RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

PROGRESSING DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOWS TWO CAMPS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS IS WET ACROSS US SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO IS BASICALLY DRY. THE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS TORMENTED US FOR THE
PAST FIVE DAYS REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AND DEEPENS
AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT FROM THE NORTH. THE EURO IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTUALLY BUILDS THE SURFACE
HIGH BACK WEST FOR A TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEM DOES NOT
HAVE AN UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS FOR MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HENCE...CHANCES POPS INDICATES FOR
MANY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

THE CIPS ANALOGS WERE LOOKED AT OVERNIGHT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRED WITH OUR PATTERN AHEAD. USING THE 144 HOUR
ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWED ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING OVER SD/NE/KS/IA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER
FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GFS
HAVING LOW PRESSURE FORMING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MEANDERING TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EURO WOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. SO WE MAY DODGE SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CLIMB BACK ABOVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. APPEARS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRIEST...WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW TRYING TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. STILL LOOKS GOOD IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS. KAXN WILL BE
ON THE EDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND KRNH AND KEAU TO THE EAST. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE APPEARS MOST LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST...COULD SEE MORE STEADY RAIN
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING NORTHWEST AND THEN CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THIS
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO KMSP AFTER 05Z//THU. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE MORNING
OUT WEST.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINS ON THE EDGE ACROSS THE FILED.
THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER 10Z. WILL CONTINUE
THE IFR CIGS AS WELL...GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS MAIN LIGHT RAIN AREA DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CLEARING TREND INTO THE EVENING...WITH SKC DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z/WED. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT. SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 220812
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.



.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  37  60  36 /  70  10   0   0
INL  66  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  60  42  65  37 /  70  10   0   0
HYR  53  38  61  32 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  49  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....DAP

000
FXUS63 KDLH 220548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SCATTERED LIGHT...OCCASIONALLY MDT
RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT FOG WITH GUSTY NE WINDS. THE LIGHT BAND OF
RAIN CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED FROM 10/11Z
UNTIL AROUND 18/19Z. THE BRD DLH AND HYR TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO
50 KT AROUND 2K FT OVER HYR WILL PRODUCE LLWS WED EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES FOR AREAS ENSHROUDED IN
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY...AND ALSO LOWERED TEMPS TOMORROW
NIGHT A FEW MORE DEGREES...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND FAR NWRN
WI. THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB TEMPS ROUGHLY
ZERO TO -2 DEG C...AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING FROST TO FORECAST IF WINDS TREND
DOWNWARD. QPF AMTS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALLOWS FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DZ
AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT/MDT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 18
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT REPRIEVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO
LEANED ON A BLEND.

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR
SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST
AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW
AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING
OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION
TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS
MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  60  36  64 /  10   0   0   0
INL  39  62  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  42  65  38  67 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  38  61  33  66 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  38  54  32  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...TENTINGER

000
FXUS63 KMPX 220356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR BOTTLED UP AND STAGNANT UPPER
AIR PATTERN STILL IN PLACE... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN OUR
AREA AND ANOTHER CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING
SOME OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS OR SO. SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE IS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ARISING FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT LACED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWFA. WITH
THINGS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GENERAL LOOK
OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN... MEANING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE PSEUDO-
WARM SECTOR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
EAST OF US AT THAT TIME. PCPN NORTH/WEST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME... ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES. DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT OR CLOUDS TO EXIT
UNTIL WE MOVE BEYOND TOMORROW/S DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONTIGUOUS US FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DP/DT INDICATED SLOWER EXIT
OF 50H LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUS HAVE SLOWED DECREASE OF POPS
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FA WEDNESDAY EVENING...VERY EARLY THU
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SAME. NICE SURGE OF CANADIAN POLAR
AIR OVER FA...BEHIND EXITING CUT OFF LOW ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN FA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SAME WILL BE SEEN ABOVE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY SAT/12Z...AS 50H CUT OFF LOW NOTED UPSTREAM
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN BRINGING IN
DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER REGION FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
BEST FORCING NOTED OVER SW THIRD OF FA. BY SUN/12Z BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY TREKS INTO WESTERN SODAK...AND
WESTERN NE BY SUNDAY/12Z TIME PERIOD.

PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OR OVER PORTIONS OF CWA
SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS40 MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY AND PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
OPPOSED TO EUROPEAN. WITH THAT SAID JUST TWEAKED POPS FOR
SUN-TUESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST POP PROBABILITIES PAINTED OVER
SW AND WEST CENTRAL CWA. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL PROGGED OVER FAR WESTERN MN INTO SE SODAK ON WED
AFTN...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF FA NEXT WED NIGHT
...AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI INTO FAR NORTHERN IA.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER SFC CYCLONE FORMS ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY...INSURING PROBABLE
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ENDING THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. APPEARS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRIEST...WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW TRYING TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. STILL LOOKS GOOD IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS. KAXN WILL BE
ON THE EDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND KRNH AND KEAU TO THE EAST. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE APPEARS MOST LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST...COULD SEE MORE STEADY RAIN
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING NORTHWEST AND THEN CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THIS
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO KMSP AFTER 05Z//THU. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE MORNING
OUT WEST.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINS ON THE EDGE ACROSS THE FILED.
THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER 10Z. WILL CONTINUE
THE IFR CIGS AS WELL...GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS MAIN LIGHT RAIN AREA DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CLEARING TREND INTO THE EVENING...WITH SKC DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z/WED. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT. SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...DWE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 220144 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
844 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES FOR AREAS ENSHROUDED IN
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY...AND ALSO LOWERED TEMPS TOMORROW
NIGHT A FEW MORE DEGREES...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND FAR NWRN
WI. THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB TEMPS ROUGHLY
ZERO TO -2 DEG C...AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING FROST TO FORECAST IF WINDS TREND
DOWNWARD. QPF AMTS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A BIT TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALLOWS FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DZ
AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT/MDT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 18
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT REPRIEVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO
LEANED ON A BLEND.

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR
SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST
AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW
AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING
OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION
TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS
MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  54  37  60 /  70  70  10   0
INL  42  66  39  62 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  44  60  42  65 /  70  70  10   0
HYR  42  53  38  61 /  50  50  20   0
ASX  40  49  38  54 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER

000
FXUS63 KMPX 220017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
717 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR BOTTLED UP AND STAGNANT UPPER
AIR PATTERN STILL IN PLACE... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN OUR
AREA AND ANOTHER CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING
SOME OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS OR SO. SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE IS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ARISING FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT LACED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWFA. WITH
THINGS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GENERAL LOOK
OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN... MEANING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE PSEUDO-
WARM SECTOR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
EAST OF US AT THAT TIME. PCPN NORTH/WEST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME... ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES. DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT OR CLOUDS TO EXIT
UNTIL WE MOVE BEYOND TOMORROW/S DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONTIGUOUS US FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DP/DT INDICATED SLOWER EXIT
OF 50H LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUS HAVE SLOWED DECREASE OF POPS
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FA WEDNESDAY EVENING...VERY EARLY THU
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SAME. NICE SURGE OF CANADIAN POLAR
AIR OVER FA...BEHIND EXITING CUT OFF LOW ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN FA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SAME WILL BE SEEN ABOVE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY SAT/12Z...AS 50H CUT OFF LOW NOTED UPSTREAM
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN BRINGING IN
DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER REGION FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
BEST FORCING NOTED OVER SW THIRD OF FA. BY SUN/12Z BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY TREKS INTO WESTERN SODAK...AND
WESTERN NE BY SUNDAY/12Z TIME PERIOD.

PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OR OVER PORTIONS OF CWA
SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS40 MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY AND PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
OPPOSED TO EUROPEAN. WITH THAT SAID JUST TWEAKED POPS FOR
SUN-TUESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST POP PROBABILITIES PAINTED OVER
SW AND WEST CENTRAL CWA. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL PROGGED OVER FAR WESTERN MN INTO SE SODAK ON WED
AFTN...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF FA NEXT WED NIGHT
...AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI INTO FAR NORTHERN IA.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER SFC CYCLONE FORMS ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY...INSURING PROBABLE
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ENDING THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OCCLUDED FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR KRWF-KSGS-NORTH OF KEAU THIS
EVENING WILL DROP SOUTH OVER WESTERN AREAS AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE EAST...AS THE UPPER LOW SHITS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RAIN AREA ON RADAR WILL ALSO REMAIN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SPREAD LOW END MVFR INTO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT OVER ALL BUT KEAU DURING THE
NIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD
SEE CEILINGS LIFT TO LOWER END MVFR(1500 FT) OR SO INTO THE
AFTERNOON MOST SECTIONS WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CEILINGS LIFT TO 2500 FEET OVER THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
OVER KEAU AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY UNTIL OCCLUDED FRONT EXITS
LATER TONIGHT.

KMSP...OCCLUDED BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
FIELD...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHIFTING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENT THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST-NORTH WIND
DIRECTION DURING THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS THE LIGHT RAIN AREA DROPS INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT IFR CIGS...PERHAPS OCNL MVFR EARLY BECOMING IFR AND
REMAINING SO INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DZ EXPECTED
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...DWE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 212347 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DZ
AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT/MDT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 18
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT REPRIEVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO
LEANED ON A BLEND.

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR
SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST
AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW
AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING
OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION
TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS
MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  39  60 /  60  60  10   0
INL  39  68  38  62 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  45  60  43  65 /  60  60  10   0
HYR  44  56  40  61 /  60  50  10   0
ASX  40  52  38  54 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...TENTINGER

000
FXUS63 KMPX 212126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR BOTTLED UP AND STAGNANT UPPER
AIR PATTERN STILL IN PLACE... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN OUR
AREA AND ANOTHER CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING
SOME OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS OR SO. SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE IS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ARISING FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT LACED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWFA. WITH
THINGS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GENERAL LOOK
OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN... MEANING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE PSEUDO-
WARM SECTOR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
EAST OF US AT THAT TIME. PCPN NORTH/WEST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME... ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES. DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT OR CLOUDS TO EXIT
UNTIL WE MOVE BEYOND TOMORROW/S DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONTIGUOUS US FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DP/DT INDICATED SLOWER EXIT
OF 50H LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUS HAVE SLOWED DECREASE OF POPS
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FA WEDNESDAY EVENING...VERY EARLY THU
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SAME. NICE SURGE OF CANADIAN POLAR
AIR OVER FA...BEHIND EXITING CUT OFF LOW ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN FA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SAME WILL BE SEEN ABOVE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY SAT/12Z...AS 50H CUT OFF LOW NOTED UPSTREAM
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN BRINGING IN
DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER REGION FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
BEST FORCING NOTED OVER SW THIRD OF FA. BY SUN/12Z BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY TREKS INTO WESTERN SODAK...AND
WESTERN NE BY SUNDAY/12Z TIME PERIOD.

PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OR OVER PORTIONS OF CWA
SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS40 MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY AND PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
OPPOSED TO EUROPEAN. WITH THAT SAID JUST TWEAKED POPS FOR
SUN-TUESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST POP PROBABILITIES PAINTED OVER
SW AND WEST CENTRAL CWA. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL PROGGED OVER FAR WESTERN MN INTO SE SODAK ON WED
AFTN...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF FA NEXT WED NIGHT
...AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI INTO FAR NORTHERN IA.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER SFC CYCLONE FORMS ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY...INSURING PROBABLE
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ENDING THE MONTH OF MAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... MEANING A CONTINUATION OF THE CONDITIONS
WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... WITH A
DIURNAL WANING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH THE LOW
SLIDING EAST WE WILL FIND MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT/WEAK FORCING LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME
LIFR TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE VFR... ALTHOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CEILINGS LOWER AND SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT... INCLUDING KMSP... WITH SHIFTS OF
AROUND 180 DEGREES IN DIRECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL DRIFT A BIT NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS IN THE TAF...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. CEILINGS COULD WIND
UP LOWER THAN FORECAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN THE BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS PERMANENTLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WIND DIRECTION IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE
CURRENT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWINGING BACK TO THE NORTH
FOR GOOD THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES COULD CERTAINLY BE LOWER FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHRA... AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER DURATION MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOWER CEILINGS RETURN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY... OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...TH

000
FXUS63 KMPX 212125
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR BOTTLED UP AND STAGNANT UPPER
AIR PATTERN STILL IN PLACE... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN OUR
AREA AND ANOTHER CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING
SOME OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS OR SO. SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE IS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ARISING FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT LACED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWFA. WITH
THINGS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GENERAL LOOK
OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN... MEANING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE PSEUDO-
WARM SECTOR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
EAST OF US AT THAT TIME. PCPN NORTH/WEST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME... ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES. DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT OR CLOUDS TO EXIT
UNTIL WE MOVE BEYOND TOMORROW/S DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONTIGOUS US FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DP/DT INDICATED SLOWER EXIT
OF 50H LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUS HAVE SLOWED DECREASE OF POPS
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FA WEDNESDAY EVENING...VERY EARLY THU
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SAME. NICE SURGE OF CANADIAN POLAR
AIR OVER FA...BEHIND EXITING CUT OFF LOW ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN FA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SAME WILL BE SEEN ABOVE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY SAT/12Z...AS 50H CUT OFF LOW NOTED UPSTREAM
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGION. BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN BRINGING IN
DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER REGION FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
BEST FORCING NOTED OVER SW THIRD OF FA. BY SUN/12Z BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY TREKS INTO WESTERN SODAK...AND
WESTERN NE BY SUNDAY/12Z TIME PERIOD.

PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OR OVER PORTIONS OF CWA
SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND EXENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS40 MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY AND PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
OPPOSSED TO EUROPEAN. WITH THAT SAID JUST TWEAKED POPS FOR
SUN-TUESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST POP PROBALITIES PAINTED OVER
SW AND WEST CENTRAL CWA. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL PROGGED OVER FAR WESTERN MN INTO SE SODAK ON WED
AFTN...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF FA NEXT WED NIGHT
...AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI INTO FAR NORTHERN IA.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER SFC CYCLONE FORMS ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY...INSURING PROBABLE
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ENDING THE MONTH OF MAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... MEANING A CONTINUATION OF THE CONDITIONS
WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... WITH A
DIURNAL WANING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH THE LOW
SLIDING EAST WE WILL FIND MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT/WEAK FORCING LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME
LIFR TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE VFR... ALTHOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CEILINGS LOWER AND SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT... INCLUDING KMSP... WITH SHIFTS OF
AROUND 180 DEGREES IN DIRECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL DRIFT A BIT NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS IN THE TAF...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. CEILINGS COULD WIND
UP LOWER THAN FORECAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN THE BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS PERMANENTLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WIND DIRECTION IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE
CURRENT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWINGING BACK TO THE NORTH
FOR GOOD THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES COULD CERTAINLY BE LOWER FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHRA... AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER DURATION MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOWER CEILINGS RETURN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY... OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...TH

000
FXUS63 KMPX 212057
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR BOTTLED UP AND STAGNANT UPPER
AIR PATTERN STILL IN PLACE... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN OUR
AREA AND ANOTHER CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING
SOME OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS OR SO. SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE IS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ARISING FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT LACED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWFA. WITH
THINGS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GENERAL LOOK
OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN... MEANING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE PSEUDO-
WARM SECTOR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
EAST OF US AT THAT TIME. PCPN NORTH/WEST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME... ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES. DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT OR CLOUDS TO EXIT
UNTIL WE MOVE BEYOND TOMORROW/S DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONTIGOUS US FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DP/DT INDICATED SLOWER EXIT
OF 50H LOW PRESSURE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUS HAVE SLOWED DECREASE OF POPS
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FA WEDNESDAY EVENING...VERY EARLY THU
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SAME. NICE SURGE OF CANADIAN POLAR
AIR OVER FA...BEHIND EXITING CUT OFF LOW ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN FA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SAME WILL BE SEEN ABOVE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY SAT/12Z...AS 50H CUT OFF LOW NOTED UPSTREAM
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGION. BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN BRINGING IN
DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER REGION FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
BEST FORCING NOTED OVER SW THIRD OF FA. BY SUN/12Z BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY TREKS INTO WESTERN SODAK...AND
WESTERN NE BY SUNDAY/12Z TIME PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... MEANING A CONTINUATION OF THE CONDITIONS
WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... WITH A
DIURNAL WANING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH THE LOW
SLIDING EAST WE WILL FIND MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT/WEAK FORCING LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME
LIFR TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE VFR... ALTHOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CEILINGS LOWER AND SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT... INCLUDING KMSP... WITH SHIFTS OF
AROUND 180 DEGREES IN DIRECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL DRIFT A BIT NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS IN THE TAF...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. CEILINGS COULD WIND
UP LOWER THAN FORECAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN THE BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS PERMANENTLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WIND DIRECTION IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE
CURRENT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWINGING BACK TO THE NORTH
FOR GOOD THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES COULD CERTAINLY BE LOWER FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHRA... AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER DURATION MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOWER CEILINGS RETURN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY... OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...TH

000
FXUS63 KDLH 212003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO
LEANED ON A BLEND.

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR
SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST
AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW
AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING
OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION
TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS
MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  39  60 /  60  60  10   0
INL  39  68  38  62 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  45  60  43  65 /  60  60  10   0
HYR  44  56  40  61 /  60  50  10   0
ASX  40  52  38  54 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211756
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...

THE FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE WAS THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. I ALLOWED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE NATURALLY AT 10 AM SINCE IT APPEARS
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FELL ON SOME AREAS THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A
BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO I ISSUED A NEW
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES
DUE TO RISING STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...AND STANDING WATER ON
SOME ROADS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING INTO
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THE AREA THAT THE RAIN IS MOVING INTO HAS
NOT HAD A LOT OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE SOME AREAS AROUND
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS HAVE GOTTEN UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE THE ADDITIONAL
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN THE CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODING.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. I GAVE THE FAR SE
FORECAST AREA NEAR PHILLIPS IN NW WISCONSIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...I LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH A THE LATEST
BLEND OF THE MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEFLY LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES
AS WELL DUE TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AFFECTING KINL WITH DRAMATICALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP TO REVEAL VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...CWA REMAINS UNDER LARGE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BEEN TRAPPED OVER CTRL CONUS LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN
IS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA. WILL
LET FFA CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ALTHOUGH BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS SRN CWA WHERE MAIN FORCING SHOULD OCCUR.

TODAY...AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER CURRENTLY OVER SRN CWA IS ALIGNED WITH
SHARPENING 85H THETAE AXIS AS IT WRAPS INTO MID LVL LOW. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO STRETCH EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN CWA TODAY.
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS CLOUD CANOPY AND DEEPLY SATURATED
COLUMN MAKE FOR SOME LOW CAPE VALUES SFC/ALOFT. MOST FAVORABLE
COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SERN WISC
ZONES IN THE AFTN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT OVER NRN MN ZONES IS FCST TO WEAKEN SO HAVE TAPERED POPS
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMITS TEMP RISE.

TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO
MN ZONES. BEST THERMODYNAMICS...85H THETAE AXIS...SHIFTS SOUTH OF
REGION BY 12Z. BRD LAKES REGION MAY REMAIN UNDERNEATH MID LVL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLLAPSING LOW LVL THETAE RIDGE LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP QPF A BIT HIGHER THAN REMAINDER OF CWA.

TOMORROW...MID LVL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF CWA AND RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT. SFC HIGH INCREASES AND PWATS DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
DAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO MAKE NWRN PART OF CWA THE WARMEST
WITH LOWEST READINGS OCCURRING IN SERN CWA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE NORTHLAND COMPLETELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AFTER
SEEING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY MAKES IT INTO AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION. DO THINK IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
MOST DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
60S FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  57  40  61 /  60  50  10   0
INL  40  66  39  63 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  45  61  44  66 /  60  50  10   0
HYR  44  56  42  63 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  40  52  39  56 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING

000
FXUS63 KMPX 211756
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR BOTTLED UP AND STAGNANT UPPER
AIR PATTERN STILL IN PLACE... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN OUR
AREA AND ANOTHER CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING
SOME OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS OR SO. SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE IS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ARISING FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT LACED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWFA. WITH
THINGS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GENERAL LOOK
OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN... MEANING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE PSEUDO-
WARM SECTOR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
EAST OF US AT THAT TIME. PCPN NORTH/WEST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER TIME... ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES. DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT OR CLOUDS TO EXIT
UNTIL WE MOVE BEYOND TOMORROW/S DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CLOUDY...COOL...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW STILL TAKING ITS TIME
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REALLY THINK BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SHOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT WE
SHOULD JUST BE DEALING WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER. WE
ARE DRY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. WENT JUST A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
THE GUIDANCE TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT SIMPLY THINK IT IS MORE TO DO
WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COOL FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER 30S ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT AND THAT HIGH MOVING IN.

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH WEST/EAST COASTS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND A
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS INDICATED IN
THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GFS RUNS. THERE ARE A LOT OF
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THEM...EVEN
GIVEN WE HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HERE`S WHY ITS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE POPS. CLIMATOLOGY IS
RIGHT AROUND 25% FOR A 24 POP FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
21.00Z GFS HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW HERE AND THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN QUASI ZONAL. BOTH OF THESE PATTERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND WOULD CERTAINLY WARRANT KEEPING POPS AT LEAST AT THE
MUTED/AVERAGED VALUES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... MEANING A CONTINUATION OF THE CONDITIONS
WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... WITH A
DIURNAL WANING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH THE LOW
SLIDING EAST WE WILL FIND MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT/WEAK FORCING LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME
LIFR TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE VFR... ALTHOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CEILINGS LOWER AND SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT... INCLUDING KMSP... WITH SHIFTS OF
AROUND 180 DEGREES IN DIRECTION EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL DRIFT A BIT NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST.


KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS IN THE TAF...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. CEILINGS COULD WIND
UP LOWER THAN FORECAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN THE BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS PERMANENTLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WIND DIRECTION IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE
CURRENT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWINGING BACK TO THE NORTH
FOR GOOD THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES COULD CERTAINLY BE LOWER FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHRA... AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER DURATION MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOWER CEILINGS RETURN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY... OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211513
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...

THE FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE WAS THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. I ALLOWED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE NATURALLY AT 10 AM SINCE IT APPEARS
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FELL ON SOME AREAS THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A
BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO I ISSUED A NEW
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES
DUE TO RISING STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...AND STANDING WATER ON
SOME ROADS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING INTO
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THE AREA THAT THE RAIN IS MOVING INTO HAS
NOT HAD A LOT OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE SOME AREAS AROUND
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS HAVE GOTTEN UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE THE ADDITIONAL
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN THE CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODING.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. I GAVE THE FAR SE
FORECAST AREA NEAR PHILLIPS IN NW WISCONSIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...I LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH A THE LATEST
BLEND OF THE MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEFLY LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES
AS WELL DUE TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AFFECTING KINL WITH DRAMATICALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP TO REVEAL VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...CWA REMAINS UNDER LARGE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BEEN TRAPPED OVER CTRL CONUS LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN
IS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA. WILL
LET FFA CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ALTHOUGH BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS SRN CWA WHERE MAIN FORCING SHOULD OCCUR.

TODAY...AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER CURRENTLY OVER SRN CWA IS ALIGNED WITH
SHARPENING 85H THETAE AXIS AS IT WRAPS INTO MID LVL LOW. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO STRETCH EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN CWA TODAY.
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS CLOUD CANOPY AND DEEPLY SATURATED
COLUMN MAKE FOR SOME LOW CAPE VALUES SFC/ALOFT. MOST FAVORABLE
COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SERN WISC
ZONES IN THE AFTN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT OVER NRN MN ZONES IS FCST TO WEAKEN SO HAVE TAPERED POPS
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMITS TEMP RISE.

TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO
MN ZONES. BEST THERMODYNAMICS...85H THETAE AXIS...SHIFTS SOUTH OF
REGION BY 12Z. BRD LAKES REGION MAY REMAIN UNDERNEATH MID LVL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLLAPSING LOW LVL THETAE RIDGE LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP QPF A BIT HIGHER THAN REMAINDER OF CWA.

TOMORROW...MID LVL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF CWA AND RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT. SFC HIGH INCREASES AND PWATS DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
DAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO MAKE NWRN PART OF CWA THE WARMEST
WITH LOWEST READINGS OCCURRING IN SERN CWA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE NORTHLAND COMPLETELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AFTER
SEEING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY MAKES IT INTO AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION. DO THINK IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
MOST DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
60S FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  57  41 /  90  60  50  10
INL  52  40  66  39 /  60  30  10   0
BRD  56  45  61  44 /  60  60  50  10
HYR  62  44  56  42 /  60  60  60  20
ASX  48  40  52  40 / 100  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KMPX 211239
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN /NEARLY
STATIONARY/ ACROSS EASTERN SD. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...THE SMALL 500 M HEIGHT FALLS YESTERDAY ACTUALLY HELPED
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW BY 2-3 MB AND PERHAPS EVEN TIGHTEN UP THE
CIRCULATION AND CORRESPONDING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FOCUSING THE VIOLENT WEATHER
IN THE STATES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT EVEN THIS MORNING THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI IS THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE SAME AREAS. THERE IS NICE
MID LEVEL DRYING STRETCHING FROM THE MN/WI BORDER ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO KS AND OK. THIS DRYING WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI DRY AT LEAST DURING
THE MORNING. CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CENTRAL MN
/ESPECIALLY WEST CENTRAL/ THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT STRATIFORM TYPE
PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT A WISE MOVE TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS IN THE WARM QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...BECAUSE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
GIVEN DECENT BL MOISTURE TO POP SOME CU AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT THUNDER CHANCE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN
EASTERN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY. AVAILABLE SHORT-RANGE WRF
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HOP-WRF /AT HOPWRF.INFO/ SUPPORT THIS.

OVERALL...THE LOW FILLS AND DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT POP MENTION EVEN WITH THE
WEAKENING TREND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP. JUST PULL UP A
RADAR MOSAIC AND LOOK AT THE RADARS TO OUR NORTH
/KABR/KFGF/KDLH...THOSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW AND WHEN THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THOSE SHOWERS WILL COME ALONG WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CLOUDY...COOL...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW STILL TAKING ITS TIME
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REALLY THINK BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SHOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT WE
SHOULD JUST BE DEALING WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER. WE
ARE DRY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. WENT JUST A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
THE GUIDANCE TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT SIMPLY THINK IT IS MORE TO DO
WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COOL FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER 30S ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT AND THAT HIGH MOVING IN.

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH WEST/EAST COASTS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND A
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS INDICATED IN
THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GFS RUNS. THERE ARE A LOT OF
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THEM...EVEN
GIVEN WE HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HERE`S WHY ITS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE POPS. CLIMATOLOGY IS
RIGHT AROUND 25% FOR A 24 POP FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
21.00Z GFS HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW HERE AND THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN QUASI ZONAL. BOTH OF THESE PATTERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND WOULD CERTAINLY WARRANT KEEPING POPS AT LEAST AT THE
MUTED/AVERAGED VALUES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SEVERAL COMPLICATIONS WITH THIS TAF SET DUE TO A WOBBLING WMFNT
OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI...INCLUDING OVER NEARLY ALL TAF SITES.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS...CLOUD HEIGHTS AND
TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE FNT LIFTS N...MAINLY N THRU
KRWF-KMSP-KRNH-EAU...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM E TO SW OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS THE CDFNT LINGERS OVER WRN MN. N OF THE
WMFNT...KAXN-KSTC WILL LIKELY REMAIN NE THRU THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN MOST SITES REPORTING LOW-END MVFR TO IFR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
GENERALLY BE A LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS TDA...CIGS WILL MAINLY
REMAIN WITHIN MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. SCALED BACK THE PRECIP DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND THE MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP
RATHER THAN A SOLID RAIN SHIELD. THAT SAID...THERE STILL MAY BE
SOME ISOLD POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN THAT COULD IMPACT VSBY
INCLUDING TSTMS. PRECIP CHCS REMAIN GENERALLY 30-60 PERCENT THRU
THE DAY...LOWERING THIS EVENING INTO TNGT THEN LOW STRATUS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...ASIDE FROM PATCHY SHWRS THIS MRNG WHICH ARE NOT XPCTD TO
DEGRADE VSBY...WILL KEEP MSP DRY THRU THE NEXT 30 HRS. STILL MAY
SEE SOME PASSING SHWRS DURING THIS TIME BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD
DROP VSBY BELOW 6SM. WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 3 KFT
MIDDAY TDA BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN THIS EVENING THRU TNGT. GOOD
CHC THAT CIGS WILL DROP BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD OVERNIGHT TNGT
AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE WED MRNG PUSH AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER WRN MN SHIFTS INTO WI. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE
WOBBLING FRONT OVERHEAD FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM E TO SW BY AROUND NOON...BUT THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC TO PIN DOWN AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 7 KT
SO HAVE USED VRB05 THRU THE MRNG TO GET TO THE EARLY AFTN WIND
SHIFT. WINDS DROP TO VRB AGAIN TNGT BEFORE PICKING UP TO NLY BY
DAYBREAK TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA LIKELY. WINDS NE AT 5G10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211209
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
709 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEFLY LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES
AS WELL DUE TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AFFECTING KINL WITH DRAMATICALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP TO REVEAL VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...CWA REMAINS UNDER LARGE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BEEN TRAPPED OVER CTRL CONUS LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN
IS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA. WILL
LET FFA CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ALTHOUGH BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS SRN CWA WHERE MAIN FORCING SHOULD OCCUR.

TODAY...AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER CURRENTLY OVER SRN CWA IS ALIGNED WITH
SHARPENING 85H THETAE AXIS AS IT WRAPS INTO MID LVL LOW. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO STRETCH EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN CWA TODAY.
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS CLOUD CANOPY AND DEEPLY SATURATED
COLUMN MAKE FOR SOME LOW CAPE VALUES SFC/ALOFT. MOST FAVORABLE
COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SERN WISC
ZONES IN THE AFTN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT OVER NRN MN ZONES IS FCST TO WEAKEN SO HAVE TAPERED POPS
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMITS TEMP RISE.

TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO
MN ZONES. BEST THERMODYNAMICS...85H THETAE AXIS...SHIFTS SOUTH OF
REGION BY 12Z. BRD LAKES REGION MAY REMAIN UNDERNEATH MID LVL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLLAPSING LOW LVL THETAE RIDGE LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP QPF A BIT HIGHER THAN REMAINDER OF CWA.

TOMORROW...MID LVL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF CWA AND RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT. SFC HIGH INCREASES AND PWATS DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
DAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO MAKE NWRN PART OF CWA THE WARMEST
WITH LOWEST READINGS OCCURRING IN SERN CWA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE NORTHLAND COMPLETELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AFTER
SEEING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY MAKES IT INTO AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION. DO THINK IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
MOST DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
60S FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TUE...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER HYR
EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE
NE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND DLH. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SRN TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
OF BEING IMPACTED...MAINLY HYR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  57  41 /  70  60  50  10
INL  52  40  66  39 /  60  30  10   0
BRD  57  45  61  44 /  70  60  50  10
HYR  64  44  56  42 /  70  60  60  20
ASX  49  40  52  40 /  80  50  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP

000
FXUS63 KMPX 210930
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN /NEARLY
STATIONARY/ ACROSS EASTERN SD. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...THE SMALL 500 M HEIGHT FALLS YESTERDAY ACTUALLY HELPED
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW BY 2-3 MB AND PERHAPS EVEN TIGHTEN UP THE
CIRCULATION AND CORRESPONDING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FOCUSING THE VIOLENT WEATHER
IN THE STATES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT EVEN THIS MORNING THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI IS THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE SAME AREAS. THERE IS NICE
MID LEVEL DRYING STRETCHING FROM THE MN/WI BORDER ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO KS AND OK. THIS DRYING WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI DRY AT LEAST DURING
THE MORNING. CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CENTRAL MN
/ESPECIALLY WEST CENTRAL/ THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT STRATIFORM TYPE
PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT A WISE MOVE TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS IN THE WARM QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...BECAUSE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
GIVEN DECENT BL MOISTURE TO POP SOME CU AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT THUNDER CHANCE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN
EASTERN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY. AVAILABLE SHORT-RANGE WRF
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HOP-WRF /AT HOPWRF.INFO/ SUPPORT THIS.

OVERALL...THE LOW FILLS AND DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT POP MENTION EVEN WITH THE
WEAKENING TREND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP. JUST PULL UP A
RADAR MOSAIC AND LOOK AT THE RADARS TO OUR NORTH
/KABR/KFGF/KDLH...THOSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW AND WHEN THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THOSE SHOWERS WILL COME ALONG WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CLOUDY...COOL...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW STILL TAKING ITS TIME
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REALLY THINK BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SHOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT WE
SHOULD JUST BE DEALING WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER. WE
ARE DRY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. WENT JUST A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
THE GUIDANCE TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT SIMPLY THINK IT IS MORE TO DO
WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COOL FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER 30S ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT AND THAT HIGH MOVING IN.

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH WEST/EAST COASTS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND A
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS INDICATED IN
THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GFS RUNS. THERE ARE A LOT OF
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THEM...EVEN
GIVEN WE HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HERE`S WHY ITS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE POPS. CLIMATOLOGY IS
RIGHT AROUND 25% FOR A 24 POP FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
21.00Z GFS HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW HERE AND THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN QUASI ZONAL. BOTH OF THESE PATTERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND WOULD CERTAINLY WARRANT KEEPING POPS AT LEAST AT THE
MUTED/AVERAGED VALUES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL
DEGRADE TO MVFR AT MN SITES...WITH IFR CIGS AT KAXN-KSTC-KRWF IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CIGS GRADUALLY
SCATTER AND IMPROVE BY 18Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY AT ALL BUT KAXN/KSTC WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

KMSP...
AFTER THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS MSP /BY
08Z/...SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1800 FEET
OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTER OUT FOR AWHILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK...AND THEN SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA LIKELY. WINDS NE AT 05G10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS

000
FXUS63 KDLH 210901
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
401 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...CWA REMAINS UNDER LARGE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BEEN TRAPPED OVER CTRL CONUS LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN
IS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA. WILL
LET FFA CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING ALTHOUGH BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS SRN CWA WHERE MAIN FORCING SHOULD OCCUR.

TODAY...AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER CURRENTLY OVER SRN CWA IS ALIGNED WITH
SHARPENING 85H THETAE AXIS AS IT WRAPS INTO MID LVL LOW. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO STRETCH EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN CWA TODAY.
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS CLOUD CANOPY AND DEEPLY SATURATED
COLUMN MAKE FOR SOME LOW CAPE VALUES SFC/ALOFT. MOST FAVORABLE
COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SERN WISC
ZONES IN THE AFTN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT OVER NRN MN ZONES IS FCST TO WEAKEN SO HAVE TAPERED POPS
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMITS TEMP RISE.

TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO
MN ZONES. BEST THERMODYNAMICS...85H THETAE AXIS...SHIFTS SOUTH OF
REGION BY 12Z. BRD LAKES REGION MAY REMAIN UNDERNEATH MID LVL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLLAPSING LOW LVL THETAE RIDGE LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP QPF A BIT HIGHER THAN REMAINDER OF CWA.

TOMORROW...MID LVL LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF CWA AND RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT. SFC HIGH INCREASES AND PWATS DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
DAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO MAKE NWRN PART OF CWA THE WARMEST
WITH LOWEST READINGS OCCURRING IN SERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE NORTHLAND COMPLETELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AFTER
SEEING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY MAKES IT INTO AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION. DO THINK IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
MOST DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
60S FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.


.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TUE...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER HYR
EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE
NE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND DLH. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SRN TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
OF BEING IMPACTED...MAINLY HYR ONCE AGAIN.



.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  57  41 /  70  60  50  10
INL  52  40  66  39 /  60  30  10   0
BRD  57  45  61  44 /  70  60  50  10
HYR  64  44  56  42 /  70  60  60  20
ASX  49  40  52  40 /  80  50  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....DAP

000
FXUS63 KDLH 210552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TUE...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER HYR
EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE
NE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND DLH. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SRN TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
OF BEING IMPACTED...MAINLY HYR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...
REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER CHANCES OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINED THE CHC OF T-STORMS TO MAINLY NW WI
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE. RAIN CONTINUES
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER WI IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
NRN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG WITH PERSISTENT NE
WINDS...GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT. BRD TERMINAL WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BECOME ENTRENCHED
IN IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG...WITH VCSH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE DLH TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERSISTENT NE WINDS AROUND
20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DLH THROUGH TOMORROW. HYR SITE WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TUES
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW HAVE PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TUESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS
CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND. MUCH OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED NORTH OR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR OR ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. INDEED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL NEED EXTRA MONITORING. I AM ALSO
CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AT 2000Z/300PM...THERE WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WOBBLING AROUND NEAR THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRAINERD LAKES
REGION AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
COVERED THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A BIT OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD MODERATE TO QUITE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE COLD
SECTOR...WHILE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES...SAVE FOR PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN THAT HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WERE A
COUPLE OBSERVATIONS OF FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING AT
DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY NW WISCONSIN...COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH AND
ORGANIZATION WILL BEST ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WHERE THE NAM12 INDICATES CAPE COULD APPROACH 1500
J/KG...DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) WIND SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS...DEW POINTS WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES...AND THERE WILL BE MUCH BETTER FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAM. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND WE MAY NEED A CONVECTIVE WATCH AT SOME POINT. IN THE
MEANTIME...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WILL MAINLY SEE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THERE COULD
CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE DUE TO THE STRONG AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY COME TO
AN END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ONGOING WEAK
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND NW WISCONSIN. THERE COULD STILL BE
PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

TUESDAY...THE WOBBLING STACKED LOW MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE DAKOTAS. WHATEVER THE TRACK...THE NORTHLAND
SHOULD STILL SEE LIKELY CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MORE SOUTH THAN IT IS TODAY...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE COULD BE
A FEW STRONG STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...BUT THE 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WED...EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT WITH BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH
DRIER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH RAPIDLY ADVECTS
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WED
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING CLOUDS/SHOWERS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE RESULTING STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING THURS AFTERNOON AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH. THE FORECAST AREA THEN BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY FROM LARGELY FROM VFR AT KHYR...TO VLIFR AT KDLH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...KEEPING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  53  42  56 /  70  60  10   0
INL  43  66  42  63 /  30  30  10   0
BRD  47  58  45  66 /  60  60  10   0
HYR  45  58  44  62 /  60  60  30   0
ASX  41  51  42  54 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...TENTINGER

000
FXUS63 KMPX 210355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS...WINDS...OVERLAID WITH SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWED A VERTICALLY
STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER. A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
WAS ORIENTED WEST/EAST FROM THE ELBOW OF WESTERN MINNESOTA UP
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS A
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WHICH WAS THE DRIVING FACTOR
BEHIND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. 19Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED 500J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
CYCLONE...WITH NO CIN...THUS THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...BUT THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
CONTROLLED RELEASE OF CAPE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION VIA THE
CELLULAR CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIA BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MUCH SHALLOWER CAPE
PROFILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...SO HAVE REMOVED
THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. IN SHORT TUESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE AREA... ENHANCED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
AND PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER... THE TREND OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BEING DISPLACED EAST
WILL CONTINUE... SO CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE FOCUSED EAST OF OUR AREA.
WE FINALLY LOOK TO GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH SURFACE RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY. THE GFS... NAM... AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THINGS... SO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
WE/LL FINALLY SEE A COMPLETELY DRY DAY BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY... WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING TO
SETUP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT... THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO
DIVERGE SOME... BUT MAINLY WITH THE DEGREE TO FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT... WITH THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY GENERATING PCPN SOONER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS POINT... AM INCLINED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL
DEGRADE TO MVFR AT MN SITES...WITH IFR CIGS AT KAXN-KSTC-KRWF IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CIGS GRADUALLY
SCATTER AND IMPROVE BY 18Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY AT ALL BUT KAXN/KSTC WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

KMSP...
AFTER THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS MSP /BY
08Z/...SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1800 FEET
OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTER OUT FOR AWHILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK...AND THEN SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA LIKELY. WINDS NE AT 05G10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TRH
AVIATION...LS

000
FXUS63 KDLH 210309 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1009 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER CHANCES OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINED THE CHC OF T-STORMS TO MAINLY NW WI
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE. RAIN CONTINUES
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER WI IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
NRN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG WITH PERSISTENT NE
WINDS...GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT. BRD TERMINAL WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BECOME ENTRENCHED
IN IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG...WITH VCSH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE DLH TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERSISTENT NE WINDS AROUND
20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DLH THROUGH TOMORROW. HYR SITE WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TUES
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW HAVE PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TUESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS
CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND. MUCH OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED NORTH OR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR OR ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. INDEED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL NEED EXTRA MONITORING. I AM ALSO
CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AT 2000Z/300PM...THERE WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WOBBLING AROUND NEAR THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRAINERD LAKES
REGION AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
COVERED THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A BIT OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD MODERATE TO QUITE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE COLD
SECTOR...WHILE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES...SAVE FOR PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN THAT HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WERE A
COUPLE OBSERVATIONS OF FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING AT
DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY NW WISCONSIN...COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH AND
ORGANIZATION WILL BEST ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WHERE THE NAM12 INDICATES CAPE COULD APPROACH 1500
J/KG...DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) WIND SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS...DEW POINTS WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES...AND THERE WILL BE MUCH BETTER FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAM. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND WE MAY NEED A CONVECTIVE WATCH AT SOME POINT. IN THE
MEANTIME...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WILL MAINLY SEE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THERE COULD
CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE DUE TO THE STRONG AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY COME TO
AN END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ONGOING WEAK
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND NW WISCONSIN. THERE COULD STILL BE
PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

TUESDAY...THE WOBBLING STACKED LOW MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE DAKOTAS. WHATEVER THE TRACK...THE NORTHLAND
SHOULD STILL SEE LIKELY CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MORE SOUTH THAN IT IS TODAY...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE COULD BE
A FEW STRONG STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...BUT THE 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WED...EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT WITH BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH
DRIER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH RAPIDLY ADVECTS
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WED
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING CLOUDS/SHOWERS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE RESULTING STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING THURS AFTERNOON AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH. THE FORECAST AREA THEN BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY FROM LARGELY FROM VFR AT KHYR...TO VLIFR AT KDLH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...KEEPING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  50  41  53 /  70  80  70  60
INL  44  54  43  66 /  80  60  30  30
BRD  48  59  47  58 /  60  70  60  60
HYR  49  64  45  58 /  70  70  60  60
ASX  43  48  41  51 /  70  70  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ140>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER

000
FXUS63 KMPX 202356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS...WINDS...OVERLAID WITH SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWED A VERTICALLY
STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER. A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
WAS ORIENTED WEST/EAST FROM THE ELBOW OF WESTERN MINNESOTA UP
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS A
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WHICH WAS THE DRIVING FACTOR
BEHIND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. 19Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED 500J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
CYCLONE...WITH NO CIN...THUS THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...BUT THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
CONTROLLED RELEASE OF CAPE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION VIA THE
CELLULAR CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIA BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MUCH SHALLOWER CAPE
PROFILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...SO HAVE REMOVED
THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. IN SHORT TUESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE AREA... ENHANCED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
AND PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER... THE TREND OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BEING DISPLACED EAST
WILL CONTINUE... SO CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE FOCUSED EAST OF OUR AREA.
WE FINALLY LOOK TO GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH SURFACE RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY. THE GFS... NAM... AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THINGS... SO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
WE/LL FINALLY SEE A COMPLETELY DRY DAY BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY... WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING TO
SETUP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT... THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO
DIVERGE SOME... BUT MAINLY WITH THE DEGREE TO FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT... WITH THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY GENERATING PCPN SOONER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS POINT... AM INCLINED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS A VICINITY MENTION HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THE
00Z-04Z TIMEFRAME WHEN INSTABILITY IS HIGHER AND A TEMPO SHRA/TS
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEARS REASONABLE AT MOST SITES. CIGS WILL
DEGRADE TO MVFR AT MN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH IFR CIGS AT KAXN-
KSTC-KRWF IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CIGS
GRADUALLY SCATTER AND IMPROVE BY 18Z TUESDAY. COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BACK TO EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY AND LOSE THE GUSTINESS BY 02Z...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AT ALL BUT KAXN/KSTC
WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.

KMSP...
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z. AFTER THAT...COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
08Z...WITH SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR THROUGH SUNRISE. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1800 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTER OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY /110-130
DEGREES/ BY 03Z THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK...AND THEN SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA LIKELY. WINDS NE AT 05G10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TRH
AVIATION...LS

000
FXUS63 KDLH 202327 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
627 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
NRN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG WITH PERSISTENT NE
WINDS...GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT. BRD TERMINAL WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BECOME ENTRENCHED
IN IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG...WITH VCSH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE DLH TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERSISTENT NE WINDS AROUND
20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DLH THROUGH TOMORROW. HYR SITE WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TUES
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW HAVE PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TUESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS
CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND. MUCH OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED NORTH OR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR OR ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. INDEED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL NEED EXTRA MONITORING. I AM ALSO
CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AT 2000Z/300PM...THERE WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WOBBLING AROUND NEAR THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRAINERD LAKES
REGION AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
COVERED THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A BIT OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD MODERATE TO QUITE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE COLD
SECTOR...WHILE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES...SAVE FOR PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN THAT HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WERE A
COUPLE OBSERVATIONS OF FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING AT
DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY NW WISCONSIN...COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH AND
ORGANIZATION WILL BEST ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WHERE THE NAM12 INDICATES CAPE COULD APPROACH 1500
J/KG...DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) WIND SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS...DEW POINTS WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES...AND THERE WILL BE MUCH BETTER FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAM. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND WE MAY NEED A CONVECTIVE WATCH AT SOME POINT. IN THE
MEANTIME...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WILL MAINLY SEE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THERE COULD
CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE DUE TO THE STRONG AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY COME TO
AN END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ONGOING WEAK
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND NW WISCONSIN. THERE COULD STILL BE
PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

TUESDAY...THE WOBBLING STACKED LOW MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE DAKOTAS. WHATEVER THE TRACK...THE NORTHLAND
SHOULD STILL SEE LIKELY CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MORE SOUTH THAN IT IS TODAY...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE COULD BE
A FEW STRONG STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...BUT THE 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WED...EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT WITH BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH
DRIER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH RAPIDLY ADVECTS
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WED
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING CLOUDS/SHOWERS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE RESULTING STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING THURS AFTERNOON AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH. THE FORECAST AREA THEN BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY FROM LARGELY FROM VFR AT KHYR...TO VLIFR AT KDLH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...KEEPING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  51  41  53 /  70  70  70  60
INL  44  54  43  66 /  70  60  30  30
BRD  51  60  47  58 /  70  70  60  60
HYR  54  68  45  58 /  70  70  60  60
ASX  45  52  41  51 /  70  70  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ140>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

AVIATION...TENTINGER

000
FXUS63 KDLH 202217 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
517 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW HAVE PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TUESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS
CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND. MUCH OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED NORTH OR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR OR ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. INDEED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL NEED EXTRA MONITORING. I AM ALSO
CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AT 2000Z/300PM...THERE WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WOBBLING AROUND NEAR THE FAR EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRAINERD LAKES
REGION AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
COVERED THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A BIT OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD MODERATE TO QUITE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE COLD
SECTOR...WHILE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES...SAVE FOR PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN THAT HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WERE A
COUPLE OBSERVATIONS OF FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING AT
DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY NW WISCONSIN...COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH AND
ORGANIZATION WILL BEST ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WHERE THE NAM12 INDICATES CAPE COULD APPROACH 1500
J/KG...DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) WIND SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS...DEW POINTS WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES...AND THERE WILL BE MUCH BETTER FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAM. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND WE MAY NEED A CONVECTIVE WATCH AT SOME POINT. IN THE
MEANTIME...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WILL MAINLY SEE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THERE COULD
CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE DUE TO THE STRONG AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY COME TO
AN END BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ONGOING WEAK
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND NW WISCONSIN. THERE COULD STILL BE
PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

TUESDAY...THE WOBBLING STACKED LOW MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE DAKOTAS. WHATEVER THE TRACK...THE NORTHLAND
SHOULD STILL SEE LIKELY CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MORE SOUTH THAN IT IS TODAY...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE COULD BE
A FEW STRONG STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE COLD SECTOR...BUT THE 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WED...EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT WITH BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH
DRIER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH RAPIDLY ADVECTS
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WED
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING CLOUDS/SHOWERS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE RESULTING STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING THURS AFTERNOON AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH. THE FORECAST AREA THEN BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY FROM LARGELY FROM VFR AT KHYR...TO VLIFR AT KDLH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...KEEPING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  51  41  53 /  70  70  70  60
INL  44  54  43  66 /  70  60  30  30
BRD  51  60  47  58 /  70  70  60  60
HYR  54  68  45  58 /  70  70  60  60
ASX  45  52  41  51 /  70  70  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ140>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER