Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 252109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE
END OF THIS PERIOD. FOR WINDS...WE WILL SEE OUR BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS DIE OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AT SUNSET...GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND SETUP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE WINDS GET PRETTY BREEZY OUT IN WRN
MN AS WELL AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND H85 WINDS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS.

WE HAVE SEEN DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 30S BEING COMMON TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE GOOD WAA AT H85
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL NOT REALIZE THOSE
TEMPERATURES WITH SE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...STILL 925 MB TEMPS LOOK
MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGHS MAKING A RUN BACK INTO THE
70S OUT IN THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST...DESPITE THE HEALTHY H85
THETA-E ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE MOVING IN. ISENTROPIC SFCS BETWEEN
300K AND 310K DO NOT MOISTEN UP UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON. BESIDE
ISENTROPIC MOISTENING...BOTH THE GFS/NAM DO NOT SHOW MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON...FURTHER SUPPORTING ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF THETA-E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER ERN MN AFTER 21Z. THE 12Z ECMWF HINTS AT THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE QPF IT GENERATES OVER LA CROSSE BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SREF PRECIP PROBS NON EXISTENT AND THE NMM/ARW
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COMING IN DRY AS WELL...FELT COMFORTABLE
KEEPING THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
NORTHERN STATES... WITH UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL NORMALLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF OVERALL TRENDS...AND
DETAILS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAIN DIFFERENCE LATE NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FASTER...BUT THIS IS RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCE WITH OTHER
MODELS.

FIRST SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH BROAD AREA
OF LIFT. FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ONE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FOR LATE OCTOBER REACHES OUR AREA... WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GENERALLY 1.O TO 1.3 INCHES FROM SC MN INTO WC WISC.
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS...LIFTED INDICES GO
NEGATIVE ALOFT...AND CAPE SPIKES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC.
MIGHT EVEN BE SOME SMALL HAIL HERE AND THERE.

PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WITH FRONT ARCING FROM LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...INTO
WISCONSIN AND THEN LOOPING BACK TO THE SW INTO KANSAS. NEXT SHORT
WAVE ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH WILL HELP BRING PRECIP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN/WI MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITH 5H MAX ON THE ORDER OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN MN MIDDAY MONDAY AND HELP SET OFF THE NEXT BATCH
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM SW/SC MN INTO WISC WHERE THE BEST LIFT
WILL MATCH UP WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
EAST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL MN INTO WISC. WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WISC. POPS ARE MEAGER FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
BEST LIFT WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT IF TROUGH ENCROACHES
A LITTLE MORE INTO OUR AREA...THERE MAY BE A SHOT AT SOME WET SNOW
MIXING IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RIDGE ARRIVES AFTER THAT... WITH A BRIEF WARMUP DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. ACTIVE PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS
LOOKS TO PERSIST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY TIME FRAME...NOT AN UNUSUAL
PATTERN FOR THE AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GO FROM
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL RESULT IN WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT GO LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTING UP OUT OF THE SE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY THE END OF THE TAF AXN/RWF WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE SE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS BY 18Z MON. VFR CONDS WILL
DOMINATE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN BETWEEN 080-120 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN. ANY MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM THE NW TO THE SE BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z TONIGHT.
MY SUN AFTERNOON...MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THE
BETTER WIND GUSTS LOOK TO STAY OFF TO THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY EARLY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MPG






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 252011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE WINDS STAY HIGHER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD THIS EVENING.

THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY WE ELECTED TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO WAA
AND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 0.8 INCHES BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW FROM
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL HELP TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTH. SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY INITIALLY SUNDAY...AND WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WE
HELD ONTO SOME SMALL POPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND WE HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LEAD S/W TROF AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DRIVE RATHER STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
MARGINAL RETURN OF MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
MODEL SPREAD OF CAPE VALUES BETWEEN A FEW HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG
DEPENDING ON THE PARTICULAR MODEL OR ENSEMBLE MEMBER.  THUS..THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE DULUTH CWA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN LOBE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES ENEWD.

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND PARTS
OF NW WISCONSIN ON MONDAY..THE NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
PRODUCES 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 60-120M. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MN..WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH.  FOR THE MOST
PART..THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF
THE PRECIP TO FALL IN THE LIQUID FORM..BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS AND RAPID COOLING OF THE ENTIRE COLUMN OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW FOR A TIME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF FAR NE MN.

TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AFTER THIS
SYSTEM..BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES TOWARD
THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE ONLY TWO IMPACTFUL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG
LATER TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS HAVE RESPONDED TO RATHER
STRONG WNW GRADIENT AND MIXING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-18KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 22-28KT RANGE AS OF
17Z. HOWEVER..PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BE NEAR THEIR PEAK WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BETWEEN 22-01Z WITH THE RAPID
ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING..AND FURTHER TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER THE
04-06Z TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH
LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AND GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LY
FAVORED TIME OF YEAR..THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEEMINGLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
KHYR/KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  56  45  56 /   0  10  60  20
INL  28  56  43  57 /   0  20  60  20
BRD  34  60  44  59 /   0  10  30  20
HYR  29  59  46  56 /   0  10  70  20
ASX  34  57  44  57 /   0   0  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251805 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE ONLY TWO IMPACTFUL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG
LATER TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS HAVE RESPONDED TO RATHER
STRONG WNW GRADIENT AND MIXING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-18KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 22-28KT RANGE AS OF
17Z. HOWEVER..PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BE NEAR THEIR PEAK WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BETWEEN 22-01Z WITH THE RAPID
ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING..AND FURTHER TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER THE
04-06Z TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH
LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AND GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TIME OF YEAR..THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEEMINGLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
KHYR/KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  60  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  60  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251805 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE ONLY TWO IMPACTFUL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG
LATER TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS HAVE RESPONDED TO RATHER
STRONG WNW GRADIENT AND MIXING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-18KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 22-28KT RANGE AS OF
17Z. HOWEVER..PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BE NEAR THEIR PEAK WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BETWEEN 22-01Z WITH THE RAPID
ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING..AND FURTHER TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER THE
04-06Z TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH
LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AND GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TIME OF YEAR..THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEEMINGLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
KHYR/KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  60  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  60  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KMPX 251749
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GO FROM
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL RESULT IN WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT GO LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTING UP OUT OF THE SE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY THE END OF THE TAF AXN/RWF WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE SE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS BY 18Z MON. VFR CONDS WILL
DOMINATE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN BETWEEN 080-120 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN. ANY MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM THE NW TO THE SE BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z TONIGHT.
MY SUN AFTERNOON...MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THE
BETTER WIND GUSTS LOOK TO STAY OFF TO THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY EARLY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251749
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GO FROM
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL RESULT IN WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT GO LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTING UP OUT OF THE SE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY THE END OF THE TAF AXN/RWF WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE SE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS BY 18Z MON. VFR CONDS WILL
DOMINATE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN BETWEEN 080-120 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN. ANY MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM THE NW TO THE SE BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z TONIGHT.
MY SUN AFTERNOON...MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THE
BETTER WIND GUSTS LOOK TO STAY OFF TO THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY EARLY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE REGION
WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT WINDS IN
THE 25 TO 30 KT ARE FOUND IN THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FOUND THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  58  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  59  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE REGION
WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT WINDS IN
THE 25 TO 30 KT ARE FOUND IN THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FOUND THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  58  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  59  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION
CONCERN IS GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 18-24 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
WC WI DEVELOPING BY 15-17Z...AND ENDING AROUND 23Z. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE E/SE AND INCREASE AFT TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. WNW/NW WINDS OF
10-14 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY
16-18Z...AND END PRIOR TO 23-00Z. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH AN EAST/SE WIND ARND 6-10 KTS BY 15-18Z SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY EARLY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 251033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION
CONCERN IS GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 18-24 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
WC WI DEVELOPING BY 15-17Z...AND ENDING AROUND 23Z. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE E/SE AND INCREASE AFT TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN MN.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. WNW/NW WINDS OF
10-14 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY
16-18Z...AND END PRIOR TO 23-00Z. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH AN EAST/SE WIND ARND 6-10 KTS BY 15-18Z SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY EARLY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KDLH 250859
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT IN BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN DROPPING BACK
TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING
AFTER 15Z MIXING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS TO BEGIN
AGAIN...AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN DROPPING BACK TO
AROUND OR LESS THAN 10KTS. SOME CIRRUS AND AC MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  58  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  59  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250851
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN LATE
THIS EVENING. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN
THE VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN MN ATTM AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH KMSP...KRNH
AND KEAU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AT KRNH BY 07Z AND KEAU BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS. WINDS ON
SATURDAY BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY IS
FORECAST BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS NW ON SATURDAY
WITH 14G22KTS AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250850
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT IN BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN DROPPING BACK
TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING
AFTER 15Z MIXING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS TO BEGIN
AGAIN...AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN DROPPING BACK TO
AROUND OR LESS THAN 10KTS. SOME CIRRUS AND AC MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  58  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  59  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
WITH SW TO WSW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH SHORE. THIS IS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHED THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO NW
MINNESOTA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA. THERE WAS POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAD MOVED INTO
THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY A BIT.
THEREFORE...LEANED ON MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
REFRAINED FROM THE COLDER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY, WINDY, AND COOLER. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GOOD MIXING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD
WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AREA
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE DULUTH AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S, ABOUT 1O TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 1 INCH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRING A THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST
MB/NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND AS SOME CAPE
DEVELOPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER FIFTIES TO AROUND 60. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
FORTIES BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT IN BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN DROPPING BACK
TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING
AFTER 15Z MIXING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS TO BEGIN
AGAIN...AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN DROPPING BACK TO
AROUND OR LESS THAN 10KTS. SOME CIRRUS AND AC MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  56  44  55 /   0  10  50  30
INL  30  55  40  52 /   0  10  50  20
BRD  34  61  46  56 /   0  20  20  30
HYR  29  59  45  58 /   0  10  50  30
ASX  35  57  44  56 /   0   0  60  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KMPX 250357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE TROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A 1020MB
HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT BAY.
WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
40S/50S...INDICATING WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIR MASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN LATE
THIS EVENING. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN
THE VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN MN ATTM AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH KMSP...KRNH
AND KEAU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AT KRNH BY 07Z AND KEAU BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS. WINDS ON
SATURDAY BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY IS
FORECAST BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS NW ON SATURDAY
WITH 14G22KTS AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE TROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A 1020MB
HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT BAY.
WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
40S/50S...INDICATING WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIR MASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN LATE
THIS EVENING. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN
THE VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN MN ATTM AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH KMSP...KRNH
AND KEAU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AT KRNH BY 07Z AND KEAU BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS. WINDS ON
SATURDAY BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY IS
FORECAST BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS NW ON SATURDAY
WITH 14G22KTS AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KDLH 242355
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
WITH SW TO WSW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH SHORE. THIS IS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHED THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO NW
MINNESOTA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA. THERE WAS POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAD MOVED INTO
THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY A BIT.
THEREFORE...LEANED ON MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
REFRAINED FROM THE COLDER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY, WINDY, AND COOLER. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GOOD MIXING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD
WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AREA
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE DULUTH AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S, ABOUT 1O TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 1 INCH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRING A THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST
MB/NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND AS SOME CAPE
DEVELOPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER FIFTIES TO AROUND 60. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
FORTIES BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. SKIES TO REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST
(240) TO WEST-NORTHWEST(290) AT 10-15KTS AND BEGIN GUSTING TO OVER
20KTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING IN THE LATE
EVENING GUSTING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG OR LAST AS LONG AS ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...AND HAVE PUT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER A FEW HOURS. SOME STRATUS AFFECTING KHYR
EXPECTED TO BE SWEPT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS TO BEGIN AGAIN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS AND AC MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  58  34  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  41  56  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  43  58  34  61 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  43  60  29  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  45  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 242340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE TROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A 1020MB
HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT BAY.
WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
40S/50S...INDICATING WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIR MASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE GETTING WORSE THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF
BETTER IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS TEMPORARY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE TWO STATE BORDER AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE KEAU IS VFR. THE MN TAF SITES ARE
FINE WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND STAY THERE ON SATURDAY. PROFILE
DATA SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 20 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY FOR KSTC...KMSP...
KRNH AND KEAU FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WIND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
W AND THEN NW BEFORE DAYBREAK. RAISED THE SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS
A FEW KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 242106
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH WAS JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 3PM. 20-30 KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT JET UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE TROUGH SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS
INVERSION...WE ARE SEEING NO PRECIP GENERATION...BUT ARE SEEING A
STRATUS DECK EXPAND BENEATH THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
WORK EAST WITH THE THROUGH...CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. A
1020MB HIGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS AT
BAY. WITH THE HIGH COMING IN...CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE CUT THINGS BACK A LITTLE
TOO MUCH AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S/50S...INDICATING
WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS DROP AS AGGRESSIVELY AS WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94 AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE NE. ONLY CHANGE FOR
SATURDAY WAS TO BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO WHAT THE
WEIGHTED MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING...WHICH HAVE
BEEN THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS IN THESE SORTS OF AIRMASSES THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND ALSO BOOSTED
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE
PASSING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE 800-600MB FGEN
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST IN MOISTENING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE - NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE
ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. IT ALSO APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN KMSP AND KEAU...SO THE METRO MAY IN FACT MISS OUT ON THE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT RAIN. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND
TROUGH SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF PRECIP/...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD /ALBEIT STILL LIGHT/ PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMALS IN MN/WI FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THE COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL NOT AS
COLD AS WHAT WE SAW IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINED
IN THE 40S FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS.
ACTUALLY...THE PREVIOUS 24.06Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE AGREEABLE WITH
THE WARMER ECMWF...BUT BACKED OFF WITH THE MORNING RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH AT 18Z WAS NEAR A MKT/MSP/RZN LINE WITH A TONGUE OF
MVFR CIGS RACING NORTH TO THE EAST OF IT. RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE CIGS THIS MORNING...SO THIS FORECAST FAVORS TRENDS
FROM THOSE MODELS CLOSELY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN...SO THAT WILL KEEP ANY STRATUS/FOG OUT OF THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH GOES FROM SW
MN INTO IA.

KMSP...MVFR CLOUDS SHOWED UP AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SFC
TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MSP WILL BE BACK TO VFR AND
VFR FOR GOOD BY 20Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG








000
FXUS63 KDLH 242023
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
WITH SW TO WSW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH SHORE. THIS IS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHED THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO NW
MINNESOTA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA. THERE WAS POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAD MOVED INTO
THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY A BIT.
THEREFORE...LEANED ON MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
REFRAINED FROM THE COLDER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY, WINDY, AND COOLER. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GOOD MIXING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD
WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AREA
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE DULUTH AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S, ABOUT 1O TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 1 INCH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRING A THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST
MB/NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND AS SOME CAPE
DEVELOPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER FIFTIES TO AROUND 60. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
FORTIES BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WAS AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS
SURGING NORTH TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WE ADDED A PERIOD OF
1500-3000FT CEILINGS AT KHYR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALSO CONTINUED ALONG A STRETCH OF THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BOTH PRECEDE AND OCCUR JUST AFTER
PASSAGE FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  58  34  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  41  56  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  43  58  34  61 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  43  60  29  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  45  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 241804
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS IN THE SE CWA DUE TO ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRST...S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGAN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WHICH LED TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE/FOG FORMATION IN EC/SE
MN TO HALT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER
CLDS/FOG ACROSS WC WI THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADV HAS BEEN DROPPED IN MN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOODHUE CTY/.
EVEN IN WC WI...THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. MOST OF THE OBS WERE NOTING
LOW CIGS...BUT VSBYS WERE AOA 1SM. THE SW/S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE SURGING N/NE ACROSS SC/SE/EC
MN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF WC WI DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WITH 60S A BETTER
SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN REASONABLE WITH
NEAR 80 IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN SE/SC MN
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST 10K...WAA IN THIS LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP CONDS DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT FOR LATER THIS MORNING.

NO CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AND ENDS CALMLY. IT/S THE MIDDLE
PORTION THAT IS UNSETTLED DUE TO A POTENT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM WITH IT.

SATURDAY WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS OWN...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THRU SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING ITS AXIS TO MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURG THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED ON MODELS SO THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
TDA/S CDFNT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PAC NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE
EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN /NRN STREAM/ LOW EWD WHILE PICKING
UP THE ROCKIES /SRN STREAM/ LOW. THE ROCKIES LOW AGAIN LOOKS
WEAKER IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...MAKING THE CANADIAN LOW THE
MAIN FEATURE BUT STILL WITH SFC FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM IT. THE CONGLOMERATION OF THESE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL
SHIFT ACRS MN/WI MON THRU TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...THE UPR LVL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE COMPACT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT FOR BETTER
PRECIP GENERATION. PROBLEM IS...THERE ARE STILL MODEL-TO-MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY OF HANDLING THE PHASING...OR RATHER NON-PHASING... OF
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS UPSTREAM FROM THE MPX CWFA. THIS MAKES
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP A BIT PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SUNDAY BUT MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE. WITHIN THAT RANGE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MON
NIGHT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS THE SRN STREAM LOW THRU THE AREA.

THE UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CENTERS THEN SHIFT THRU
THE REGION BY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING ZONAL /SLIGHTLY
WNW-ESE/ FLOW ALOFT AND A NON-DESCRIPT SFC PRES PATTERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE WX CONDS WITH PTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS DROP TO
30S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THE 20S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SFC TROUGH AT 18Z WAS NEAR A MKT/MSP/RZN LINE WITH A TONGUE OF
MVFR CIGS RACING NORTH TO THE EAST OF IT. RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE CIGS THIS MORNING...SO THIS FORECAST FAVORS TRENDS
FROM THOSE MODELS CLOSELY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN...SO THAT WILL KEEP ANY STRATUS/FOG OUT OF THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH GOES FROM SW
MN INTO IA.

KMSP...MVFR CLOUDS SHOWED UP AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SFC
TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MSP WILL BE BACK TO VFR AND
VFR FOR GOOD BY 20Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241737
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CUT BACK ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AS MOST OF THE
WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FROM THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THROUGH 10 AM AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE
THEN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WAS AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS
SURGING NORTH TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WE ADDED A PERIOD OF
1500-3000FT CEILINGS AT KHYR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALSO CONTINUED ALONG A STRETCH OF THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BOTH PRECEDE AND OCCUR JUST AFTER
PASSAGE FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241243
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
743 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CUT BACK ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AS MOST OF THE
WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FROM THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THROUGH 10 AM AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE
THEN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LINGERING MORNING FOG WITH WILL BE FOUND AROUND KDLH AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD...BUT DRY...FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KHYR...WHERE MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...TO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BY SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 35-40 KT OVERNIGHT. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241153 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CUT BACK ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AS MOST OF THE
WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FROM THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THROUGH 10 AM AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE
THEN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING
KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z FRIDAY. KBRD AND KINL MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG...BUT MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 241039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS IN THE SE CWA DUE TO ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRST...S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGAN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WHICH LED TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE/FOG FORMATION IN EC/SE
MN TO HALT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER
CLDS/FOG ACROSS WC WI THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADV HAS BEEN DROPPED IN MN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOODHUE CTY/.
EVEN IN WC WI...THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. MOST OF THE OBS WERE NOTING
LOW CIGS...BUT VSBYS WERE AOA 1SM. THE SW/S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE SURGING N/NE ACROSS SC/SE/EC
MN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF WC WI DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WITH 60S A BETTER
SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN REASONABLE WITH
NEAR 80 IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN SE/SC MN
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST 10K...WAA IN THIS LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP CONDS DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT FOR LATER THIS MORNING.

NO CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AND ENDS CALMLY. IT/S THE MIDDLE
PORTION THAT IS UNSETTLED DUE TO A POTENT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM WITH IT.

SATURDAY WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS OWN...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THRU SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING ITS AXIS TO MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURG THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED ON MODELS SO THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
TDA/S CDFNT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PAC NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE
EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN /NRN STREAM/ LOW EWD WHILE PICKING
UP THE ROCKIES /SRN STREAM/ LOW. THE ROCKIES LOW AGAIN LOOKS
WEAKER IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...MAKING THE CANADIAN LOW THE
MAIN FEATURE BUT STILL WITH SFC FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM IT. THE CONGLOMERATION OF THESE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL
SHIFT ACRS MN/WI MON THRU TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...THE UPR LVL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE COMPACT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT FOR BETTER
PRECIP GENERATION. PROBLEM IS...THERE ARE STILL MODEL-TO-MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY OF HANDLING THE PHASING...OR RATHER NON-PHASING... OF
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS UPSTREAM FROM THE MPX CWFA. THIS MAKES
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP A BIT PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SUNDAY BUT MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE. WITHIN THAT RANGE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MON
NIGHT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS THE SRN STREAM LOW THRU THE AREA.

THE UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CENTERS THEN SHIFT THRU
THE REGION BY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING ZONAL /SLIGHTLY
WNW-ESE/ FLOW ALOFT AND A NON-DESCRIPT SFC PRES PATTERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE WX CONDS WITH PTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS DROP TO
30S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THE 20S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL/SW MN /KAXN KRWF &
KSTC THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE S/SW TO A MORE
W/NW DIRECTION LATER TODAY. EC MN/WC WI REMAINED IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF IFR CONDS
REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR KEAU. KRNH REMAINS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 12-13Z. LATER THIS MORNING A
SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE BLW 5K IS EVIDENT IN MODELS TO MOVE FROM
IA...NE ACROSS SC/SE AND EC MN AND INTO WC WI THIS AFTN. KEPT
CONDS MVFR BY THE LATE MORNING THRU MOST OF THE AFTN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE S/SW TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD BY MID/LATE MORNING AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTS N/NE
ACROSS IA...AND INTO SC/EC MN. DEPENDING UPON THE AMT OF MIXING
THIS AFTN AND WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW/W...WILL DETERMINE TIMING
OF WHEN THE MVFR CIGS LIFT OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE FOR
CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY 19-20Z. VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE LATE
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W/NW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR EARLY. POSS MVFR CIGS IN SHRA LATE. WNDS BCMG SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR SHRA EARLY. VFR LATE. WNDS BCMG W/NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ078.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 240926
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS IN THE SE CWA DUE TO ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FIRST...S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGAN TO INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WHICH LED TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE/FOG FORMATION IN EC/SE
MN TO HALT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER
CLDS/FOG ACROSS WC WI THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADV HAS BEEN DROPPED IN MN /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOODHUE CTY/.
EVEN IN WC WI...THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. MOST OF THE OBS WERE NOTING
LOW CIGS...BUT VSBYS WERE AOA 1SM. THE SW/S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE SURGING N/NE ACROSS SC/SE/EC
MN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF WC WI DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH...WITH 60S A BETTER
SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN REASONABLE WITH
NEAR 80 IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC MN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN SE/SC MN
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST 10K...WAA IN THIS LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP CONDS DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO LOOK
AT FOR LATER THIS MORNING.

NO CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AND ENDS CALMLY. IT/S THE MIDDLE
PORTION THAT IS UNSETTLED DUE TO A POTENT INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM WITH IT.

SATURDAY WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS OWN...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THRU SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING ITS AXIS TO MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURG THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED ON MODELS SO THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
TDA/S CDFNT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PAC NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE
EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN /NRN STREAM/ LOW EWD WHILE PICKING
UP THE ROCKIES /SRN STREAM/ LOW. THE ROCKIES LOW AGAIN LOOKS
WEAKER IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...MAKING THE CANADIAN LOW THE
MAIN FEATURE BUT STILL WITH SFC FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM IT. THE CONGLOMERATION OF THESE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL
SHIFT ACRS MN/WI MON THRU TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...THE UPR LVL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE COMPACT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
DAYBREAK TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT FOR BETTER
PRECIP GENERATION. PROBLEM IS...THERE ARE STILL MODEL-TO-MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY OF HANDLING THE PHASING...OR RATHER NON-PHASING... OF
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS UPSTREAM FROM THE MPX CWFA. THIS MAKES
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP A BIT PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SUNDAY BUT MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE. WITHIN THAT RANGE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MON
NIGHT...ESP OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS THE SRN STREAM LOW THRU THE AREA.

THE UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CENTERS THEN SHIFT THRU
THE REGION BY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING ZONAL /SLIGHTLY
WNW-ESE/ FLOW ALOFT AND A NON-DESCRIPT SFC PRES PATTERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE WX CONDS WITH PTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS DROP TO
30S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THE 20S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN
WI AND FAR SE MN WILL BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE
TWIN CITIES...OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE
UNDER THE STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS OF EASTERN MN WHERE IT
IS CLEAR RIGHT NOW HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
FOR THE WESTERN MN TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A LARGER TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THERE IS A ALSO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HENCE...VFR
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR KRWF..KSTC AND KAXN. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WI. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY VEERING SW ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON 8-10
KNOTS.

KMSP...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE DRIFTING NW TOWARDS THE
AIRFIELD WITH BKN-OVC010 EXPECTED BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AND
PUSHES THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ078.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240832
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING
KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z FRIDAY. KBRD AND KINL MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG...BUT MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING
KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z FRIDAY. KBRD AND KINL MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG...BUT MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  57  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  58  35  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  45  58  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KMPX 240346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN
WI AND FAR SE MN WILL BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE UNDER THE
STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS OF EASTERN MN WHERE IT IS CLEAR
RIGHT NOW HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
FOR THE WESTERN MN TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A LARGER TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THERE IS A ALSO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED FOR KRWF..KSTC AND KAXN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WI. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY
VEERING SW ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON 8-10 KNOTS.

KMSP...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE DRIFTING NW TOWARDS THE
AIRFIELD WITH BKN-OVC010 EXPECTED BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AND
PUSHES THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-070-077-
     078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 240346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN
WI AND FAR SE MN WILL BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE UNDER THE
STRATUS DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS OF EASTERN MN WHERE IT IS CLEAR
RIGHT NOW HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
FOR THE WESTERN MN TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A LARGER TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS. THERE IS A ALSO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED FOR KRWF..KSTC AND KAXN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WI. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY
VEERING SW ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON 8-10 KNOTS.

KMSP...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE DRIFTING NW TOWARDS THE
AIRFIELD WITH BKN-OVC010 EXPECTED BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AND
PUSHES THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-070-077-
     078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT OF THE MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT SUNSHINE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THAT PART
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN WI COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES SKIES BY NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD...SO CONTINUED THE 0 POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...IN PARTICULAR THE
23.12 HAVE BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT DEVELOPS A 988 LOW OVER MN...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER MUCH INTERROGATION...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFERENCE STEM FROM
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY QUICKER...SO IT PLACES THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ON THE FOOTHILLS OF WY BY 18Z MONDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY THIS
PV ANOMALY BECOMES PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CYCLOGENESIS FOLLOWS LEADING TO A WELL DEVELOPED
CYCLONE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE EC AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND THE
POLAR JET IS DELAYED AND DISPLACED...AND AS A RESULT BY 18Z TUESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPARED TO THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE GFS. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. USED 6HR GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIP.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY FOR THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRIER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE MN/WI BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IS ABOUT AS FAR AS IT WILL GO
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON KEAU CLEARING THIS
EVENING. IF THEY DO...THEY WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY TO LIFR OR
VLIFR. KRNH IS CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS. THIS WILL LIKELY
HEAD BACK INTO FAR EASTERN MN LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. KSTC...KRWF AND KAXN ARE MUCH BETTER OFF WITH VFR
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FOR
OUR TWO WI TAF SITES.

KMSP...SOME MVFR BR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK IN
ON LIGHT SE WINDS. A CONCERN IS THAT LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO
SPREAD IN AFTER 09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS. ITS JUST
A SMALL POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. SOME BKN-OVC035-045 MAY ALSO
PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ON THIS WITH IT BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ053-063-
     070-077-078-084-085-093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KDLH 232343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE











    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities