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000
FXUS63 KDLH 040024
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS
BEFORE THEY SHOULD EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MLCAPE
VALUES WERE 1000-1500J/KG AS OF 00Z SPC MESOANALYSIS BUT CAPE WAS
ONLY AROUND 30 KT. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP...GAIN
STRENGTH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING DUE TO
THIS COMBO OF SHEAR/CAPE.

EARLIER THIS EVENING WE ADDED SOME SMOKE TO THE GRIDS AS SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE/HAZE AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR/MVFR. WE WILL SEE SKIES
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WE HAVE SEEN ONE CELL BECOME SEVERE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...AND THAT IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  56  81 /  10   0   0  20
INL  50  84  61  81 /   0  10  20  80
BRD  59  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  70
HYR  52  82  60  82 /  50  10  10  10
ASX  54  74  56  83 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040024
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS
BEFORE THEY SHOULD EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MLCAPE
VALUES WERE 1000-1500J/KG AS OF 00Z SPC MESOANALYSIS BUT CAPE WAS
ONLY AROUND 30 KT. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP...GAIN
STRENGTH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING DUE TO
THIS COMBO OF SHEAR/CAPE.

EARLIER THIS EVENING WE ADDED SOME SMOKE TO THE GRIDS AS SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE/HAZE AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR/MVFR. WE WILL SEE SKIES
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WE HAVE SEEN ONE CELL BECOME SEVERE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...AND THAT IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  56  81 /  10   0   0  20
INL  50  84  61  81 /   0  10  20  80
BRD  59  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  70
HYR  52  82  60  82 /  50  10  10  10
ASX  54  74  56  83 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 032340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND SMOKE/FOG ENCROACHMENT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO
THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SAGS IN.  WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NOW
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO
GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

SMOKE IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.  VSBY REDUCTION HAS BEEN MINOR THUS
FAR...AFTERNOON MIXING IS PROVIDING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER NORTHWEST
MN.  STILL...AIR QUALITY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SMOKE AREA DROPPING
OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION AREAS/PATCHY SMOKE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.  THEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL TO THE FAR
EAST...ALTHOUGH SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MARGINAL.  STILL...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS EXTENT OF ANY REDEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA INTO EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION MONDAY/AFTERNOON.  STILL
WILL HAVE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK
WARM FRONT.  WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY ON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING AS A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE AROUND. 12Z MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE REGARDING TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO COME...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 00Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH WILL
AID IN THE ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. AFTER THE EVENING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE APPEAR QUITE
LIKELY.

BY 18Z MONDAY...TODAY/S 12Z RUN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
POSITIONED THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SETS IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED...SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVER.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL
EXISTENCE OF SAID FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WILDFIRES IN CANADA.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE IFR RANGE AT AXN ALREADY...AND
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR AT THAT TERMINAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. SMOKE/HAZE HAS ALSO
MOVED OVER THE ST. CLOUD TERMINAL...AND IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER SUNSET
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS AT THE REMAINDER OF OUR
TERMINALS...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
THICKER SMOKE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS SHOW PATCHY
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT EAU AND RNH BY THE EARLY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT SMOKE IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...THE SMOKE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN COULD IMPACT MSP AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY AT 6SM OR HIGHER
IN THE TAF FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND SMOKE/FOG ENCROACHMENT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO
THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SAGS IN.  WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NOW
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO
GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

SMOKE IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.  VSBY REDUCTION HAS BEEN MINOR THUS
FAR...AFTERNOON MIXING IS PROVIDING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER NORTHWEST
MN.  STILL...AIR QUALITY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SMOKE AREA DROPPING
OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION AREAS/PATCHY SMOKE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.  THEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL TO THE FAR
EAST...ALTHOUGH SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MARGINAL.  STILL...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS EXTENT OF ANY REDEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA INTO EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION MONDAY/AFTERNOON.  STILL
WILL HAVE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK
WARM FRONT.  WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY ON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING AS A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE AROUND. 12Z MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE REGARDING TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO COME...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 00Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH WILL
AID IN THE ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. AFTER THE EVENING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE APPEAR QUITE
LIKELY.

BY 18Z MONDAY...TODAY/S 12Z RUN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
POSITIONED THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SETS IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED...SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVER.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL
EXISTENCE OF SAID FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WILDFIRES IN CANADA.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE IFR RANGE AT AXN ALREADY...AND
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR AT THAT TERMINAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. SMOKE/HAZE HAS ALSO
MOVED OVER THE ST. CLOUD TERMINAL...AND IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER SUNSET
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS AT THE REMAINDER OF OUR
TERMINALS...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
THICKER SMOKE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS SHOW PATCHY
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT EAU AND RNH BY THE EARLY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT SMOKE IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...THE SMOKE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN COULD IMPACT MSP AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY AT 6SM OR HIGHER
IN THE TAF FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND SMOKE/FOG ENCROACHMENT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO
THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SAGS IN.  WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NOW
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO
GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

SMOKE IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.  VSBY REDUCTION HAS BEEN MINOR THUS
FAR...AFTERNOON MIXING IS PROVIDING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER NORTHWEST
MN.  STILL...AIR QUALITY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SMOKE AREA DROPPING
OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION AREAS/PATCHY SMOKE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.  THEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL TO THE FAR
EAST...ALTHOUGH SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MARGINAL.  STILL...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS EXTENT OF ANY REDEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA INTO EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION MONDAY/AFTERNOON.  STILL
WILL HAVE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK
WARM FRONT.  WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY ON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING AS A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE AROUND. 12Z MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE REGARDING TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO COME...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 00Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH WILL
AID IN THE ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. AFTER THE EVENING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE APPEAR QUITE
LIKELY.

BY 18Z MONDAY...TODAY/S 12Z RUN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
POSITIONED THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SETS IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED...SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVER.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL
EXISTENCE OF SAID FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WILDFIRES IN CANADA.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE IFR RANGE AT AXN ALREADY...AND
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR AT THAT TERMINAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. SMOKE/HAZE HAS ALSO
MOVED OVER THE ST. CLOUD TERMINAL...AND IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER SUNSET
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS AT THE REMAINDER OF OUR
TERMINALS...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
THICKER SMOKE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS SHOW PATCHY
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT EAU AND RNH BY THE EARLY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT SMOKE IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...THE SMOKE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN COULD IMPACT MSP AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY AT 6SM OR HIGHER
IN THE TAF FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND SMOKE/FOG ENCROACHMENT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO
THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SAGS IN.  WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NOW
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO
GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

SMOKE IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.  VSBY REDUCTION HAS BEEN MINOR THUS
FAR...AFTERNOON MIXING IS PROVIDING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER NORTHWEST
MN.  STILL...AIR QUALITY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SMOKE AREA DROPPING
OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION AREAS/PATCHY SMOKE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.  THEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL TO THE FAR
EAST...ALTHOUGH SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MARGINAL.  STILL...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS EXTENT OF ANY REDEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA INTO EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION MONDAY/AFTERNOON.  STILL
WILL HAVE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK
WARM FRONT.  WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY ON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING AS A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE AROUND. 12Z MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE REGARDING TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO COME...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 00Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH WILL
AID IN THE ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. AFTER THE EVENING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE APPEAR QUITE
LIKELY.

BY 18Z MONDAY...TODAY/S 12Z RUN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
POSITIONED THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SETS IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED...SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVER.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL
EXISTENCE OF SAID FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WILDFIRES IN CANADA.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE IFR RANGE AT AXN ALREADY...AND
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR AT THAT TERMINAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. SMOKE/HAZE HAS ALSO
MOVED OVER THE ST. CLOUD TERMINAL...AND IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER SUNSET
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS AT THE REMAINDER OF OUR
TERMINALS...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
THICKER SMOKE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS SHOW PATCHY
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT EAU AND RNH BY THE EARLY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT SMOKE IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...THE SMOKE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN COULD IMPACT MSP AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY AT 6SM OR HIGHER
IN THE TAF FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 032019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE
HAS BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
INL  50  84  61  81 /   0  10  20  80
BRD  59  85  63  85 /   0  10  10  70
HYR  52  82  60  82 /  40  10  10  10
ASX  54  74  56  83 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE
HAS BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
INL  50  84  61  81 /   0  10  20  80
BRD  59  85  63  85 /   0  10  10  70
HYR  52  82  60  82 /  40  10  10  10
ASX  54  74  56  83 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032019
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND SMOKE/FOG ENCROACHMENT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO
THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SAGS IN.  WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NOW
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO
GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

SMOKE IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.  VSBY REDUCTION HAS BEEN MINOR THUS
FAR...AFTERNOON MIXING IS PROVIDING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER NORTHWEST
MN.  STILL...AIR QUALITY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SMOKE AREA DROPPING
OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION AREAS/PATCHY SMOKE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.  THEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL TO THE FAR
EAST...ALTHOUGH SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MARGINAL.  STILL...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS EXTENT OF ANY REDEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA INTO EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION MONDAY/AFTERNOON.  STILL
WILL HAVE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK
WARM FRONT.  WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY ON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING AS A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE AROUND. 12Z MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE REGARDING TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO COME...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 00Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH WILL
AID IN THE ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. AFTER THE EVENING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE APPEAR QUITE
LIKELY.

BY 18Z MONDAY...TODAY/S 12Z RUN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
POSITIONED THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SETS IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED...SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVER.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL
EXISTENCE OF SAID FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE
HAS BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
INL  50  84  61  81 /   0  10  20  80
BRD  59  85  63  85 /   0  10  10  70
HYR  52  82  60  82 /  40  10  10  10
ASX  54  74  56  83 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032019
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND SMOKE/FOG ENCROACHMENT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO
THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SAGS IN.  WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...NOW
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO
GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

SMOKE IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.  VSBY REDUCTION HAS BEEN MINOR THUS
FAR...AFTERNOON MIXING IS PROVIDING SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER NORTHWEST
MN.  STILL...AIR QUALITY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SMOKE AREA DROPPING
OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION AREAS/PATCHY SMOKE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.  THEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL TO THE FAR
EAST...ALTHOUGH SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MARGINAL.  STILL...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS EXTENT OF ANY REDEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA INTO EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION MONDAY/AFTERNOON.  STILL
WILL HAVE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK
WARM FRONT.  WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY ON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING AS A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE AROUND. 12Z MODELS WERE FAIRLY AGREEABLE REGARDING TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO COME...WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 00Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED IN NATURE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH WILL
AID IN THE ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. AFTER THE EVENING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE APPEAR QUITE
LIKELY.

BY 18Z MONDAY...TODAY/S 12Z RUN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
POSITIONED THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SETS IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED...SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVER.
THE FIRST IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20
POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL
EXISTENCE OF SAID FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS/CAMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL MENTION VCSH AT WI TAF SITES FOR NOW THROUGH
03Z. THEN SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG GENERATING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET SOME SHRA AT THE TAF SITES AND
THE SKY CLEARS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT POTENTIAL AT KEAU.
OTHER ISSUE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
SMOKE POTENTIAL. DID MENTION MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LAT KSTC FOR NOW.
SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO AND POTENTIAL MIXING WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

KMSP...WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z AS BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SOME THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION BECAUSE OF
SMOKE/FU MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
SOME 6SM BR DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FU
AFFECTING THE AREA BEFORE THAT TIME. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT MORE SW AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MORE
SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031726
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  30  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031726
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  30  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031726
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  30  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031726
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  30  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WITH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF NOW GOING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING PRETTY
BLEAK...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. TERMINALS
MOST LIKE TO SEE A SHRA/TSRA ARE RNH/EAU...THOUGH STC/MSP CAN NOT
RULE SOMETHING OUT. FOG MAY BE AN ISSUES AGAIN AT EAU SATURDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO INTRODUCED AN
MVFR VIS FOR THEM TO END THE TAF FOR NOW.

KMSP...IF MSP SEES A SHRA/TSRA IT WOULD BE BETWEEN 23Z AND
3Z...BUT THAT THREAT STILL LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH A CROSS WIND FOR THE 30S/12Z MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH
WITH SPEED GENERALLY 8 KTS OR LESS...IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WITH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF NOW GOING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING PRETTY
BLEAK...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. TERMINALS
MOST LIKE TO SEE A SHRA/TSRA ARE RNH/EAU...THOUGH STC/MSP CAN NOT
RULE SOMETHING OUT. FOG MAY BE AN ISSUES AGAIN AT EAU SATURDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO INTRODUCED AN
MVFR VIS FOR THEM TO END THE TAF FOR NOW.

KMSP...IF MSP SEES A SHRA/TSRA IT WOULD BE BETWEEN 23Z AND
3Z...BUT THAT THREAT STILL LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH A CROSS WIND FOR THE 30S/12Z MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH
WITH SPEED GENERALLY 8 KTS OR LESS...IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030906
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE ONLY
ISSUE FOR TAFS. EXPECT ISO/SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 18-20Z IN
CENTRAL MN THAT WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD WRN WI INTO THE EVENING. AT
THIS POINT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS. ONLY FIELD THAT YOU
CAN SAY FOR SURE NO PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT IS RWF...BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW EVERYWHERE ELSE AS WELL. WINDS WILL START
OF SWRLY THIS MORNING AND BACK TOWARD THE NW AS THE FRONT WORKS
INTO THE AREA.

KMSP...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE. MAY SEE SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT SCARCE COVERAGE...SO
CONTINUED TO LEAVE ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT. TIME PERIOD FOR SEEING
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE 23Z TO 03Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030906
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE ONLY
ISSUE FOR TAFS. EXPECT ISO/SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 18-20Z IN
CENTRAL MN THAT WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD WRN WI INTO THE EVENING. AT
THIS POINT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS. ONLY FIELD THAT YOU
CAN SAY FOR SURE NO PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT IS RWF...BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW EVERYWHERE ELSE AS WELL. WINDS WILL START
OF SWRLY THIS MORNING AND BACK TOWARD THE NW AS THE FRONT WORKS
INTO THE AREA.

KMSP...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE. MAY SEE SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT SCARCE COVERAGE...SO
CONTINUED TO LEAVE ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT. TIME PERIOD FOR SEEING
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE 23Z TO 03Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KMPX 030610
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE ONLY
ISSUE FOR TAFS. EXPECT ISO/SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 18-20Z IN
CENTRAL MN THAT WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD WRN WI INTO THE EVENING. AT
THIS POINT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS. ONLY FIELD THAT YOU
CAN SAY FOR SURE NO PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT IS RWF...BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW EVERYWHERE ELSE AS WELL. WINDS WILL START
OF SWRLY THIS MORNING AND BACK TOWARD THE NW AS THE FRONT WORKS
INTO THE AREA.

KMSP...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE. MAY SEE SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT SCARCE COVERAGE...SO
CONTINUED TO LEAVE ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT. TIME PERIOD FOR SEEING
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE 23Z TO 03Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KMPX 030610
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE ONLY
ISSUE FOR TAFS. EXPECT ISO/SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 18-20Z IN
CENTRAL MN THAT WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD WRN WI INTO THE EVENING. AT
THIS POINT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENOUGH THAT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS. ONLY FIELD THAT YOU
CAN SAY FOR SURE NO PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT IS RWF...BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW EVERYWHERE ELSE AS WELL. WINDS WILL START
OF SWRLY THIS MORNING AND BACK TOWARD THE NW AS THE FRONT WORKS
INTO THE AREA.

KMSP...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE. MAY SEE SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT SCARCE COVERAGE...SO
CONTINUED TO LEAVE ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT. TIME PERIOD FOR SEEING
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE 23Z TO 03Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022333 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022333 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022333 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022333 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022333 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022333 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. APPEARS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER
BY 00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
JET. STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z
MONDAY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN
THE WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  APPEARS THE 12Z ECWMF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY
00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY EVENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET.
STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE HE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY.  SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  APPEARS THE 12Z ECWMF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY
00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY EVENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET.
STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE HE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY.  SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  APPEARS THE 12Z ECWMF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY
00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY EVENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET.
STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE HE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY.  SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  APPEARS THE 12Z ECWMF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY
00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY EVENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET.
STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE HE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY.  SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  APPEARS THE 12Z ECWMF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY
00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY EVENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET.
STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE HE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY.  SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER MURKY SKY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OWING TO THE FOREST FIRES OF WESTERN
CANADA. THE FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...UNTIL A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING
FRONTAL WEST/EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THERE
EXISTENCE...THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY HAVE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ANY 3HR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER WITH FRIDAYS STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
INTO THE 4TH AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE FRIDAY BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT INTO SATURDAY.  VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERNED THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE INCLUDED AN
ISOLATED TRW MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
THAT TIME...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO HOLD DOWN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS STRONGEST IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FROPA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  APPEARS THE 12Z ECWMF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE GFS IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...NOT 6 HOURS SLOWER LIKE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT MOVES ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY
00Z MON. THIS SHOULD BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE FAR WEST. THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL/LIKELY EVENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOME UPPER 80S LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGGING THE FRONT AND ANCHORED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET.
STILL HAVE SOME THREAT INTO THE HE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR KMSP BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY/THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY.  SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END IN THE
WESTERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENERGY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  80  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  77  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  76  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  80  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  77  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  76  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KMPX 021740
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCARCE...AND PROBABILITY IS LOW...SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAF.
THE BEST TIME PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 21 TO 03Z FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOG AROUND KHIB IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 13Z THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
REMAINING SITES SHOULD ALSO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO POP UP OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA GENERALLY 21Z-03Z...BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. AFTER 05Z SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KINL AND
THEN KHIB AROUND 08Z...AND HAVE PUT IN VCSH TO THESE LOCATIONS FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 021152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOG AROUND KHIB IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 13Z THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
REMAINING SITES SHOULD ALSO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO POP UP OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA GENERALLY 21Z-03Z...BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. AFTER 05Z SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KINL AND
THEN KHIB AROUND 08Z...AND HAVE PUT IN VCSH TO THESE LOCATIONS FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS LIGHT FOG AT KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. KRWF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A SHOWER OR WEAK STORM LATER ON THIS MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD...AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS LIGHT FOG AT KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. KRWF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A SHOWER OR WEAK STORM LATER ON THIS MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD...AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS LIGHT FOG AT KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. KRWF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A SHOWER OR WEAK STORM LATER ON THIS MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD...AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS LIGHT FOG AT KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. KRWF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A SHOWER OR WEAK STORM LATER ON THIS MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD...AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS LIGHT FOG AT KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. KRWF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A SHOWER OR WEAK STORM LATER ON THIS MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD...AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS LIGHT FOG AT KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. KRWF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A SHOWER OR WEAK STORM LATER ON THIS MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD...AND IT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 020916
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
KSTC/KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND. AT KRWF AND KAXN

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 020916
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND EVER CLOSER TO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A DECENT 500MB JET ORIENTATED FROM NW-SE ACROSS MT/WY/SD AND
NOSING INTO NORTHERN NE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ARE PRODUCING THE TWO-THREE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ND/SD/NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND IN WESTERN MN. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WONT
LIMP INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE ACTIVITY DOESNT WARRANT LIKELY WORDING. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST. WE
INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF 20-40% RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER
ON THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE
ARE ONCE AGAIN SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES. THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS SHOULD
BE ATTAINABLE. LOW TO MID 70S ARE MORE LIKELY IF WE HOLD ONTO MORE
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR
TWO PERIODS...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
NORTH METRO LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.
ARW/NMM AND THE NAMNEST SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN MN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING AT LEAST THE
NORTH METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THEREFORE...BROUGHT
SOME SMALL POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING FRIDAY EVENING FROM WEST OF THE
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES BY ALOFT. THIS LEADS
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 12Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT BY THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
TROUBLESOME AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. IT/S A REFLECTION OF SMALL
WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST TIMES IT WOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE...BUT ONCE AGAIN PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS NEARLY
AT THE TOP OF OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HENCE...HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING A CONCERN WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CHECK OF THE
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS SOME SMALL PROBABILITIES
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
MIX-DOWN WAS MUCH WARMER AND WAS BLENDED IN TO KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
KSTC/KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND. AT KRWF AND KAXN

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020839
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  10  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020839
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  10  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 020603
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SHORT WAVE EXITING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TAKING THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITH IT. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OF THE AREA UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. THE 18Z NAM_WRF AND
ECMWF DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE CAMS/HIRES MODELS GENERATE
MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA LATE AND DRIVES
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVENT BEEN
HANDLING THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN VERY WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AREAS INTO
THURSDAY...WORKING OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER
THREAT RATHER LOW ONCE GAIN...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. MENTIONED JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
THREAT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO TODAY IN CLOUD
TREND OVERALL...WITH THICKER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST MAINLY
AFTER 06Z THU. FARTHER EAST...LESS CLOUD EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WIND...SHOULD RADIATE PRETTY WELL AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
SURFACE RIDGE. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE EAST AS
WELL...AS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER AND CLOUDS
LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN TO THE EAST AND NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY...DECREASING IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FLOW LOOKS TO UNDERGO SOME CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LONGER TERM... ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 6 AND 7. IN GENERAL... THE WESTERN RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES EAST
THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER DURING THE PERIOD... BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO
THAT... WE/LL SEE A PIECE OF THIS SHORTWAVE... WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SHEARING OFF INTO NORTHWEST CANADA... WORK BY TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THAT FEATURE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA... BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK TO DIG SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH TO PUSH IT
THROUGH MORE THAN THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. AS
MENTIONED... THE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE DIFFERENCES
INITIALLY BECOMING NOTABLE WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...
AND BRINGS THE UPPER WAVE INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY... PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER... RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY... AND A REDUCED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
GIVEN THEIR NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING FROPA. THE HOPWRF-TS... USING
GFS FOR INITIAL/BOUNDARY CONDITIONS... DEVELOPS SOME DECENT
LOOKING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROPA... INITIALLY FORMING OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE THE CAP
WOULD BE WEAKER... BUT THEN CONTINUING DOWN ALONG THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. NEEDLESS TO SAY... THE DETAILS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE MUCH DIFFERENT... WITH THINGS DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT... AND THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE BETTER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. AFTER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TO OUR
NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER... THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF... RESULTING IN THINGS COOLING
DOWN QUITE A BIT DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD KEEP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
KSTC/KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND. AT KRWF AND KAXN

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...TRH
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 020603
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SHORT WAVE EXITING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TAKING THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITH IT. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OF THE AREA UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. THE 18Z NAM_WRF AND
ECMWF DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE CAMS/HIRES MODELS GENERATE
MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA LATE AND DRIVES
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVENT BEEN
HANDLING THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN VERY WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AREAS INTO
THURSDAY...WORKING OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER
THREAT RATHER LOW ONCE GAIN...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. MENTIONED JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
THREAT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO TODAY IN CLOUD
TREND OVERALL...WITH THICKER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST MAINLY
AFTER 06Z THU. FARTHER EAST...LESS CLOUD EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WIND...SHOULD RADIATE PRETTY WELL AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
SURFACE RIDGE. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE EAST AS
WELL...AS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER AND CLOUDS
LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN TO THE EAST AND NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY...DECREASING IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FLOW LOOKS TO UNDERGO SOME CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LONGER TERM... ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 6 AND 7. IN GENERAL... THE WESTERN RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES EAST
THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER DURING THE PERIOD... BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO
THAT... WE/LL SEE A PIECE OF THIS SHORTWAVE... WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SHEARING OFF INTO NORTHWEST CANADA... WORK BY TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THAT FEATURE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA... BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK TO DIG SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH TO PUSH IT
THROUGH MORE THAN THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. AS
MENTIONED... THE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE DIFFERENCES
INITIALLY BECOMING NOTABLE WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...
AND BRINGS THE UPPER WAVE INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY... PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER... RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY... AND A REDUCED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
GIVEN THEIR NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING FROPA. THE HOPWRF-TS... USING
GFS FOR INITIAL/BOUNDARY CONDITIONS... DEVELOPS SOME DECENT
LOOKING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROPA... INITIALLY FORMING OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE THE CAP
WOULD BE WEAKER... BUT THEN CONTINUING DOWN ALONG THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. NEEDLESS TO SAY... THE DETAILS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE MUCH DIFFERENT... WITH THINGS DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT... AND THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE BETTER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. AFTER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TO OUR
NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER... THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF... RESULTING IN THINGS COOLING
DOWN QUITE A BIT DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD KEEP THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
KSTC/KRNH/KEAU THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND. AT KRWF AND KAXN

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH -TSRA LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...TRH
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020435
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020435
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020256
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020256
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020256
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020256
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




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