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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290816
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Confidence is low with the forecast this morning with regards to
precipitation chances. We currently have an upper low over central
Minnesota that is moving very slowly east. Cloud top cooling has
been occurring around the low since midnight with showers increasing
in coverage and intensity across portions of central Minnesota as
well as southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. It`s the
showers in central Minnesota that are troubling. The CAMS are having
a tough time with the showers with several indicating them too far
north. Others that use a hot start fade the showers in 1 to 2 hours
which has not been the case. Therefore, opted to drive scattered
showers all the way southeast through the Twin Cities early this
morning before allowing things to diminish some off to the east.

This then feeds into what happens from late morning onward as more
showers are shown in the CAMS developing from Alexandria all the way
down to the Iowa border and then back northeast across west central
Wisconsin. Feel a little more confident about these showers given
the steep lapse rates seen from the SFC-700 mb along with a skinny
CAPE profile. The showers shouldn`t be too widespread with isolated
wording used in the forecast. The showers will fade early this
evening will the loss of daytime heating and ridging aloft spreading
in from the west.

It will be dry from late evening onward. A concern overnight is the
potential for fog development, especially from central Minnesota
through west central Wisconsin. These areas have the lowest temp/dew
point spreads under weak high pressure. You also have the damp
ground from the recent rains. Indicated areas of fog developing
after midnight for the aforementioned areas.

Highs forecast for today remain on the high side of most guidance.
The forecast is closer to the NAM then anything else given some
breaks in the cloudiness during the afternoon along with the cold
trough at 850 mb moving east of the area. Little change to the lows
forecast for tonight with around 50 in the central Minnesota to the
upper 50s in the Twin Cities on southward.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The longer term concerns are the development and movement of the
next closed low moving through the northern stream Tuesday
through wednesday night.

initially on monday...waa/theta-e advection lifts northeast
across the southwest portion of the cwa by Monday evening. We
will likely see at least some elevated thunder develop perhaps as
early as Monday morning over the far southwest per latest trend
of the NAM WRF and ECMWF which both paint some light qpf into
southwest MN before 18z. Instability increases with the surface
warm front lifting northeast into southwest MN monday night. This
should generate more widespread activity along with some threat
large hail and wind gusts into Monday night.

On Tuesday...CIPS Analog guidance is indicating at least a chance
of severe weather as the trough swings east along with a surface
cold front. The 00z gfs was showing moderate instability
developing and increasing shear as the trough approaches. Only
real limiting factor will be cloud cover/heating concerns with
possible morning activity lingering. This shifts east tuesday
night and should take any significant thunder threat with it.
Rainfall for the Monday night through Tuesday night period
approaches the 1 inch mark for most of the cwa. With PW`s
increasing to 1.5 inches...this looks feasible considering the
amount of forcing indicated. As the trough exits the area
wednesday...we still could see some showers/perhaps some isolated
thunder as it moves through into Wednesday night.

The warmest day of the upcoming forecast looks to be Memorial Day
with some lower 80s indicated. We should see plenty of sunshine at
least early in the day...with increasing mid/high level clouds
from the west during the afternoon. After that...we trend to
below normal through Thursday with the passage of the trough.
Then warmer conditions develop with increasing sunshine. Some
chance of showers/thunder returning to the area next Friday night
into Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF bring in a frontal system
then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

There is a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings out there this evening. We
think some of these low clouds will expand tonight and could even
lower with time. We are not completely sold on this scenario,
especially given the time of year, but the moisture will hang
around tonight and any amount of nocturnal cooling should help
keep the low clouds in place. Our computer models disagree on how
low the clouds get tonight, adding to the uncertainty.

KMSP...

MVFR conditions are possible late tonight and early tomorrow
morning given all the residual moisture low in the atmosphere.
It`s also possible the airport bounces from VFR to MVFR tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and -TSRA late. Winds S 5-10KT.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR, -TSRA likely. Winds S 10-20KT.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance of -SHRA. Winds W 10-20KT.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290037
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
737 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Concerns are thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening and
another threat tomorrow afternoon.

Upper low is on the move and is now into southeastern South Dakota.
Models open it up as a wave later tonight and the trough axis should
be out of western Wisconsin Sunday mid morning. Brief upper ridging
takes place, but with relatively zonal flow from the Pacific coast
to the Upper Midwest, it appears that a weak short wave will move
across the Dakotas Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile a surface low was just north of Sioux City, with a front
extending northeast to the southeast Twin Cities metro and then
toward Rice Lake. Modest instability has been evident across
southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, and with a bit of clearing late
this morning, showers and a few storms quickly developed. With not
much shear, decent low level lapse rates and some instability, a
boundary in the area, and upper low just west of us, it is possible
there may be a funnel cloud or two and maybe even a landspout
tornado. This threat will taper off early this evening.

North of the boundary, an abundance of low clouds will keep
temperatures from dropping too much tonight. Lows should mainly be
55-60. There is enough low level moisture so that it will take quite
some time before clearing takes place, most likely Sunday
morning.

The clearing tomorrow morning will open the door for the potential
of more storms Sunday afternoon as the next short wave arrives. A
variety of models show more instability late tomorrow afternoon. In
fact, there looks to be more CAPE tomorrow than today. Moisture will
be sufficient, especially in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thus
there may be more storms Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main forecast concern is timing of Monday nights` precipitation
chances.

Dry conditions should prevail Sunday night through Monday
afternoon as a dry west-northwest flow continues, and moisture
remains limited. There is some uncertainty late Monday afternoon
in southwest/south central Minnesota as moisture begins to return
ahead of a storm system across the Rockies. Depending upon the
speed and moisture return, parts of southwest/south central
Minnesota could see a few thunderstorms by the late afternoon.
Otherwise, the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until
late Monday night, and Tuesday as strong moisture advection and a
negatively tilted trough moves across the Upper Midwest. I
wouldn`t be surprised to see severe thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon in west central/southwest/south central Minnesota based
on shear and MLCAPE values. Behind this system, a cool/cold air
mass moves in, and last for a few days. This cool period has been
advertised by the models but the strength of the colder air
remains questionable. Models have lowered highs by
Thursday/Friday, but these numbers could be lower if more of the
air mass originates in north central Canada, vs, the Canadian
Rockies. Some of the GEFS plumes on temperatures by late in the
week have lows back in the 40s in the Twin Cities, with highs in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Isolated to scattered showers will continue for the next several
hours, but outside of KEAU, there shouldn`t be thunderstorms near
the TAF sites. In addition to the rain, there is a mix of VFR/MVFR
ceilings. We think some of these low clouds will expand tonight
and could even lower with time. We are not completely sold on this
scenario, especially given the time of year, but the moisture will
hang around tonight and any amount of nocturnal cooling should
help keep the low clouds in place. Our computer models disagree on
how much clearing occurs tonight.

KMSP...

While thunderstorms are no longer a threat, light rain and
MVFR conditions will likely linger through most of the night. It`s
also possible the airport bounces from VFR to MVFR tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and -TSRA late. Winds S 5-10KT.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR, -TSRA likely. Winds S 10-20KT.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance of -SHRA. Winds W 10-20KT.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF



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000
FXUS63 KDLH 281743
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

widespread drizzle and lifr/mvfr conditions will prevail today and
overnight as the forecast area remains in a saturated and unstable
air mass. Locally dense fog will be found at KDLH for much of the
period. winds will turn out of the northwest sunday morning,
allowing for improving condtions generally after 12-14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  53  72  51 /  40  50  40  10
INL  64  52  70  48 /  70  60  50  10
BRD  69  54  77  53 /  50  50  30  10
HYR  71  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  64  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...Graning




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281149
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

updated aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions for all except KINL this morning,
with areas of drizzle or light rain showers. KINL to also
deteriorate to IFR by 18z. A break of the precipitation and
perhaps temporary higher ceilings is expected generally 15z-
21z...plus/minus a few hours. Another area of showers and isolated
thunder is expected to spread north into the area from the
south after 21z...once again bringing ifr/lifr conditions for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  53  72  51 /  60  60  40  10
INL  68  52  70  48 /  60  60  50  10
BRD  71  54  77  53 /  60  50  30  10
HYR  73  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  67  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 281059
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The short term concern remains the extent of shower/thunder threat
today and tonight.

Water vapor imagery showing negatively tilted upper trough lifting
slowly northeast. Moisture feed continues into southern MN ahead of
the trough.  Various short term hires models continue to show slug
of showers/isolated thunder moving through Iowa into southern MN
will continue its northward trek through the morning. Will
continue high pop trend through the day...as upper trough continues
to lift northeast. Surface boundary is rather diffuse and appears
to be moving into far southern MN early this morning.  Remnants of
yesterdays boundary appears to be weakening further into west
central WI.  Here some fog developed as dewpoints remain high.
This is expected to dissipate as showers lifts into the area later
this morning. Thunder threat will lift north during the morning as
well...though should remain rather limited.

This afternoon...a weak surface low will develop along the boundary
in southern MN and will be the focus of more concentrated thunder
threat.  Appears some threat of isolated severe with large
hail/strong wind gusts associated with he stronger storms mainly
across southern third of MN into west central WI. Some NST/brief
weak tornado concern as well...depending on how much heating and
destabilization takes place. The namwrf showed best chance of this
occurring was south central MN during the afternoon/early evening as
the surface low moves east along with the front.  Will have to
monitor radar trends closely into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
held down in the 60s once again over the northwest cwa as cloud cover
remains over the area. some lower and possible mid 70s into western
Wisconsin if modest breaks develop.

The trough swings east tonight and should take most of the
shower/thunder threat with it.  We will trail pops off to the west
during the night along with ending any thunder threat after
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The balance of the holiday weekend is not looking too bad as a
drying trend ensues on Sunday in the wake of the upper low headed
our way this morning from the central plains. Memorial Day is
pretty much dry across the entire forecast area. The main concern
with Monday is how fast will showers and thunderstorms return
across west central through south central Minnesota. The GFS is
dry in these areas until Monday evening. This is even drier than
the 27.18z run. The ECMWF on the other hand remains a fast
outlier with some activity possible in the aforementioned areas
Monday afternoon. The 28.00z run is even faster than the 27.12z
run. Hence, the two models are going in opposite directions. The
GEM is more of the middle ground with some precipitation seen.
This speed difference between the ECMWF and GFS is tied to a
vigorous upper low/short wave moving our way from the northern
Rockies on Monday. The ECMWF is a little faster aloft and the
height fields are much more negatively tilted over those on the
GFS. In the end, allowed from some small pops to develop in the
afternoon from west central through south central MN. Highs/lows
both days will be some 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

The wave approaching from the northern Rockies on Monday will
take until late Thursday to clear the Upper Mississippi Valley
region. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a wet period with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. A surface low and
associated cold front will be moving slowly across Minnesota
Tuesday afternoon and evening which may result in some of the
convection being strong to severe if sufficient breaks in the
cloud cover occur allowing for destabilization. Rain amounts from
Monday night through Tuesday night will likely fall into the 0.50
to 1.5 inch range with the heavier amounts tied to the convection.

The balance of the long term (Wednesday through Friday) will see
increasing northerly flow across the region as a strong ridge
builds in the western United States. This will bring our temperatures
back closer to seasonal levels with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s common. A few instability showers can`t be ruled out as
well across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area due to
the cold air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main concern is the threat for thunder today. Some isolated
thunder to the southwest near krwf...but this should wane through
the morning. Two areas of showers one associated with the main
upper circulation near omaha and another lifting to the northeast
over western Wisconsin. This will affect mainly western wi area
this morning. Fog issue should gradually dissipate through 16z-17z
over WI with cigs lifting from lifr/ifr to mvfr by 17z.
Redeveloping shra/tsra expected into the afternoon early
evening....mainly affecting the southern area. Will mention tsra
at keau/krwf/keau for this threat. Expect lifting cigs at least
early in evening as the winds turn more nw. Some threat of mvfr
cigs in the wake of the system...with ifr threat at keau late
tonight. Light winds becoming more east/southeast and then more
n-nw with fropa developing from west to east.

KMSP...
MVFR conditions with sub-1700ft cigs to prevail much of the
morning. a passing shower to the east with r3edeve3lopment into
the afternoon/evening as the upper trough lifts out. Will mention
tempo thunder after 21z but should be limited in overall coverage
and mainly to the south and east.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280848
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Expecting IFR/LIFR cigs/visbys at all terminals overnight. KINL
will gradually see VFR conditions deteriorate to IFR overnight.
This is a result of light winds combined with the recent moisture
received...allowing fog to develop at all terminals. This is
already evident at several obs sites across the region...and
indicated by the latest guidance.

Still expecting winds to remain light across the region on
Saturday and clouds to remain. Based on the latest guidance was a
little more pessimistic with conditions only improving to
MVFR...but think that VFR visby will develop. During the
afternoon expecting showers and thunderstorms to move into the
region from south as a low moves in from the south. Still
uncertain on how widespread shower/thunderstorm activity will
be...so left in as VCSH for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  53  72  51 /  60  60  40  10
INL  68  52  70  48 /  60  60  50  10
BRD  71  54  77  53 /  60  50  30  10
HYR  73  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  67  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280833
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The short term concern remains the extent of shower/thunder threat
today and tonight.

Water vapor imagery showing negatively tilted upper trough lifting
slowly northeast. Moisture feed continues into southern MN ahead of
the trough.  Various short term hires models continue to show slug
of showers/isolated thunder moving through Iowa into southern MN
will continue its northward trek through the morning. Will
continue high pop trend through the day...as upper trough continues
to lift northeast. Surface boundary is rather diffuse and appears
to be moving into far southern MN early this morning.  Remnants of
yesterdays boundary appears to be weakening further into west
central WI.  Here some fog developed as dewpoints remain high.
This is expected to dissipate as showers lifts into the area later
this morning. Thunder threat will lift north during the morning as
well...though should remain rather limited.

This afternoon...a weak surface low will develop along the boundary
in southern MN and will be the focus of more concentrated thunder
threat.  Appears some threat of isolated severe with large
hail/strong wind gusts associated with he stronger storms mainly
across southern third of MN into west central WI. Some NST/brief
weak tornado concern as well...depending on how much heating and
destabilization takes place. The namwrf showed best chance of this
occurring was south central MN during the afternoon/early evening as
the surface low moves east along with the front.  Will have to
monitor radar trends closely into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
held down in the 60s once again over the northwest cwa as cloud cover
remains over the area. some lower and possible mid 70s into western
Wisconsin if modest breaks develop.

The trough swings east tonight and should take most of the
shower/thunder threat with it.  We will trail pops off to the west
during the night along with ending any thunder threat after
midnight.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The balance of the holiday weekend is not looking too bad as a
drying trend ensues on Sunday in the wake of the upper low headed
our way this morning from the central plains. Memorial Day is
pretty much dry across the entire forecast area. The main concern
with Monday is how fast will showers and thunderstorms return
across west central through south central Minnesota. The GFS is
dry in these areas until Monday evening. This is even drier than
the 27.18z run. The ECMWF on the other hand remains a fast
outlier with some activity possible in the aforementioned areas
Monday afternoon. The 28.00z run is even faster than the 27.12z
run. Hence, the two models are going in opposite directions. The
GEM is more of the middle ground with some precipitation seen.
This speed difference between the ECMWF and GFS is tied to a
vigorous upper low/short wave moving our way from the northern
Rockies on Monday. The ECMWF is a little faster aloft and the
height fields are much more negatively tilted over those on the
GFS. In the end, allowed from some small pops to develop in the
afternoon from west central through south central MN. Highs/lows
both days will be some 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

The wave approaching from the northern Rockies on Monday will
take until late Thursday to clear the Upper Mississippi Valley
region. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a wet period with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. A surface low and
associated cold front will be moving slowly across Minnesota
Tuesday afternoon and evening which may result in some of the
convection being strong to severe if sufficient breaks in the
cloud cover occur allowing for destabilization. Rain amounts from
Monday night through Tuesday night will likely fall into the 0.50
to 1.5 inch range with the heavier amounts tied to the convection.

The balance of the long term (Wednesday through Friday) will see
increasing northerly flow across the region as a strong ridge
builds in the western United States. This will bring our temperatures
back closer to seasonal levels with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s common. A few instability showers can`t be ruled out as
well across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area due to
the cold air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The next batch of more concentrated showers will lift north into
the area from the south overnight, and affect the TAF sites
between 09z and 17z. There will likely be some isolated thunder,
but probability/coverage at any one site is too low for inclusion
in the TAF. Once the precip starts, expect it to be pretty dreary
until we see breaks in the precip /and possibly even scattering
clouds/ during the afternoon. IFR/MVFR conditions will prevail
through Saturday morning. Those breaks could fuel afternoon
thunderstorm development however...especially closer to the
surface low over southwest MN near KRWF. Light north/northeast to
variable winds will become south/southwest Saturday.

KMSP...
Expect MVFR conditions with sub-1700ft cigs to prevail through
Saturday morning. Area of showers looks to arrive around/after
11z Sat. We do have a chance to scour out the MVFR deck on
Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low. Could also see
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/eve.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 280439
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...for 06z aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Things look to remain unsettled through the short term period as the
surface boundary continues to linger across the region. Current slug
of precipitation should shift north of most of the area this evening
as the shortwave helping to drive it pushes north. The next feature
of interest can be seen over the central Plains in water vapor
imagery, rotating around the main upper low. This looks to help
drive another area of showers with perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms north into the area late tonight into Saturday
morning. We`ll eventually see the primary surface low work toward
the area by Saturday evening. Certainly cannot go with any
completely dry time frame through the period given lingering
elevated instability and continued southerly flow of moisture, but
this evening into the overnight appears to be the best time frame
for that possibility. The CAM guidance is in decent agreement on
this idea as well, and doesn`t really bring a more consolidated area
of precipitation back into the area until Saturday morning, with
that then continuing for much of the day, which makes sense given
the timing of the upper level wave and approaching surface low.
Temperatures could be tricky on Saturday if we are able to see any
decent breaks in cloud cover, since readings could quickly surge
above forecast values for a short time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Confidence remains low on timing and how widespread the
thunderstorm activity remains for Saturday night, through Monday.
However, there remains enough consistency to lower chances once
the surface low moves out of the area late Saturday night, with a
broad area of drier westerlies behind this system on Sunday,
Sunday night. It still looks relativity good for outdoor
activities on Sunday and most of Monday.

By Monday evening, a strong storm system that will be moving
onshore in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, will begin to
spread deeper moisture northward across the Plains, and into the
Upper Midwest by Monday. However, initial dry air mass, and some
timing problems associated with the system moving onshore this
weekend, will lead to some uncertainties of timing for the next
batch of widespread rainfall. Although confidence is high for
another widespread rainfall event early next week, have kept
chances from 45 to 65% Monday night through Tuesday night. The
amount of jet energy and moisture with this system should lead to
another widespread 1-2" rainfall event by Wednesday morning.

The upper air pattern will begin to change from south-southwest,
to a more northwest-north flow by late next week. Depending upon
the strength of a deepening trough developing late next week, will
depend upon how cool temperature will play out. As with a pattern
change of this significances, deep moisture and instability
parameters will lower, so severe weather chances will diminish.

The latest probabilistic forecast of the GEFS /Ensemble of the
GFS/ for the 6-14 day period does show an anomalous upper trough
deepening across the eastern United States. This type of pattern
is also conducive for much drier conditions for early June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The next batch of more concentrated showers will lift north into
the area from the south overnight, and affect the TAF sites
between 09z and 17z. There will likely be some isolated thunder,
but probability/coverage at any one site is too low for inclusion
in the TAF. Once the precip starts, expect it to be pretty dreary
until we see breaks in the precip /and possibly even scattering
clouds/ during the afternoon. IFR/MVFR conditions will prevail
through Saturday morning. Those breaks could fuel afternoon
thunderstorm development however...especially closer to the
surface low over southwest MN near KRWF. Light north/northeast to
variable winds will become south/southwest Saturday.

KMSP...
Expect MVFR conditions with sub-1700ft cigs to prevail through
Saturday morning. Area of showers looks to arrive around/after
11z Sat. We do have a chance to scour out the MVFR deck on
Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low. Could also see
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/eve.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 272030
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Things look to remain unsettled through the short term period as the
surface boundary continues to linger across the region. Current slug
of precipitation should shift north of most of the area this evening
as the shortwave helping to drive it pushes north. The next feature
of interest can be seen over the central Plains in water vapor
imagery, rotating around the main upper low. This looks to help
drive another area of showers with perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms north into the area late tonight into Saturday
morning. We`ll eventually see the primary surface low work toward
the area by Saturday evening. Certainly cannot go with any
completely dry time frame through the period given lingering
elevated instability and continued southerly flow of moisture, but
this evening into the overnight appears to be the best time frame
for that possibility. The CAM guidance is in decent agreement on
this idea as well, and doesn`t really bring a more consolidated area
of precipitation back into the area until Saturday morning, with
that then continuing for much of the day, which makes sense given
the timing of the upper level wave and approaching surface low.
Temperatures could be tricky on Saturday if we are able to see any
decent breaks in cloud cover, since readings could quickly surge
above forecast values for a short time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Confidence remains low on timing and how widespread the
thunderstorm activity remains for Saturday night, through Monday.
However, there remains enough consistency to lower chances once
the surface low moves out of the area late Saturday night, with a
broad area of drier westerlies behind this system on Sunday,
Sunday night. It still looks relativity good for outdoor
activities on Sunday and most of Monday.

By Monday evening, a strong storm system that will be moving
onshore in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, will begin to
spread deeper moisture northward across the Plains, and into the
Upper Midwest by Monday. However, initial dry air mass, and some
timing problems associated with the system moving onshore this
weekend, will lead to some uncertainties of timing for the next
batch of widespread rainfall. Although confidence is high for
another widespread rainfall event early next week, have kept
chances from 45 to 65% Monday night through Tuesday night. The
amount of jet energy and moisture with this system should lead to
another widespread 1-2" rainfall event by Wednesday morning.

The upper air pattern will begin to change from south-southwest,
to a more northwest-north flow by late next week. Depending upon
the strength of a deepening trough developing late next week, will
depend upon how cool temperature will play out. As with a pattern
change of this significances, deep moisture and instability
parameters will lower, so severe weather chances will diminish.

The latest probabilistic forecast of the GEFS /Ensemble of the
GFS/ for the 6-14 day period does show an anomalous upper trough
deepening across the eastern United States. This type of pattern
is also conducive for much drier conditions for early June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

MVFR and some IFR will predominate through he period as the
surface trough lingers over the area and a few weak shortwaves
move through. Main windows for poor conditions look to be this
afternoon, with some improvement from late afternoon into this
evening, then again late tonight and Saturday morning. Stuck
fairly close to timing of LAMP guidance, but in general did not go
quite as pessimistic with the specifics. Thunder is a possibility,
but doesn`t look sufficiently likely to include at this point,
especially with the better chances for that looking like they`d
occur with the precipitation late tonight/Saturday morning.

KMSP...Have reasonable confidence in the overall forecast and
timing, but do believe it`s possible that conditions could be a
bit worse with both ceiling and visibility in the 09Z-15Z time
period, so subsequent forecasts may need to adjust.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Saturday night...MVFR ceilings possible. Northwest wind 5 to 10
knots.
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271751
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated for the new 18Z aviation discussion below.



UPDATE Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of rain extended north through our Minnesota zones as far
north as the Iron Range. A dry east-southeast flow as seen on the
300k isentropic surface was keeping a good portion of northwest
Wisconsin dry. This dry flow does break down as moisture surges
into that area later today into tonight. The various short term
guidance agrees on keeping the bulk of the rain over the western
half of the CWA today. The precip has been just rain at this time
with little or no thunder. We decreased the chance for thunder
until later today...but even then the better CAPE remains near or
just south of our Wisconsin zones.

Looking ahead to tonight, the HRRR is handling this precipitation
well at this time and it shows coverage diminishing late today
into this evening. The latest GFS/NAM also show show this general
trend. We will wait for the rest of the guidance to come in before
making too many significant changes to the forecast tonight but it
does look like we will have to cut back some on pops tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

At 4 AM, it was dry across the CWA, with mainly high clouds
streaming in from the south and west. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 40s to the lower 50s for much of the area. Areas of dense
fog persisted across the region, especially close to Lake
Superior, where there was a persistent moist marine layer.

The main focus for today through Saturday will be resolving the
various precipitation threats for the Northland. Today will be
fairly quiet initially, but the potential for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from the south as the day wears on. A
shortwave lifting north through the plains today will result in an
increase in showers and storms. The chance of precipitation will
vary between likely and scattered coverage. Highs today will be in
the 70s, but it will once again be cooler near the lake.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight, as
the main upper level low and trough lifts into the western Great
Lakes region. That means an increase in showers and storms as the
night wears on, with numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Moisture will spread in from the south, generating the
fairly decent precipitation amounts. Highs should generally be in
the 70s, but clouds and precipitation could keep temperatures a
bit lower in spots.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The extended highlights include the passage of a cold front early
in the period, then upper level ridging followed by another
extensive upper low.

By Sunday Night the current surface low over the southern and
central Plains will be right over the northland and with the
greatest instability and lift forecast over northwestern
Wisconsin. This will continue the extensive rain and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday morning with possible residual showers
lingering Sunday afternoon. The low will move north into Ontario
followed by a surface high so Memorial Day will be dry and sunny.

However, that will be short-lived as the upper air pattern will
again feature a large long wave trof currently over British
Columbia digging into the western U. S. Monday night and closing
off over the High Plains by Tuesday. By Wednesday the resulting
surface low will be across the Dakotas and it will move across
Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Widespread rain across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin will
continue to lift northward through this afternoon, bringing light
rain to Northland terminals. Showers are likely this evening, but
will then lift northward to north of Minnesota by Saturday
morning. There will is a low risk of isolated thunder through
this evening, too low to warrant having thunder in the TAFs at
this time. The best chance of thunder will be for KHYR this
evening. May need to add thunder back into the TAFs will later
updates.

The conditions will primarily remain VFR through early this
evening, but there will be lowering ceilings and visibility
tonight into early Saturday. There will likely be widespread
LIFR/IFR conditions by dawn Saturday. Conditions will slowly
improve to IFR/MVFR by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  51  64  50 /  90  60  70  60
INL  75  56  71  52 /  50  60  60  50
BRD  68  56  72  54 /  80  60  60  60
HYR  72  56  74  56 /  60  70  80  60
ASX  60  48  69  52 /  50  70  70  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Grochocinski




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271718
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The short term concern remains the extent of shower/thunder threat
today and tonight and cloud trends.

Water vapor imagery currently showing remnants of Iowa convection
lifting north in southerly flow aloft over the central conus.
Radar has been showing some isolated activity trying to develop in
weak theta-e advection over the area, We do expect coverage to
increase during the morning..similar to trend of the Hopwrf mean
as the wave lifts out to the north. We will continue the trend of
likely pop as it moves through. There should be some break in the
overall coverage of any showers into the afternoon from the
south...and this should linger into the evening. Cloud cover is
expected to remain much of the day as moisture continues to stream
north. This should limit heating somewhat and help keep
temperatures into the low-mid 70s and keep the severe weather
threat low for the cwa.

The upper trough to the southwest is forecast to lift northeast
later tonight and should begin to generate more widespread activity
mainly late tonight.  We will increase pops once again after 06z
sat...into central MN by 12z. QPF forecast should range around three
tenths of an inch to the west and up to three-quarters of an inch to
the east through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The long term period will begin with a significant closed upper
low/short wave lifting slowly northeastward across the forecast
area. This feature has been well advertised and remains in great
agreement between the various deterministic solutions. Hence,
showers are likely with thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon and continuing for a time Saturday evening. Rain amounts
from a half to three-quarters of an inch are likely as well. A
concern on Saturday is a potential bust with the high
temperatures. 850mb temperatures are only in the 12 to 14 deg C
range. With a very moist column, it may be hard to get past the
upper 60s to lower 70s from west to east. Therefore, trimmed back
the highs into the lower to middle 70s which still may be on the
warm side but it does leave some room in case the showers are not
as widespread as forecast and some breaks in the clouds occur.

This wave will exit the area on Sunday with weak surface ridging
and height rises aloft. The day may be pretty much dry. The fly-
in-the-ointment is the instability that develops across the area
during the afternoon with SBCAPE from 1000-1500 j/kg along with
the best LI from -4 to -6. A small disturbance is seen in the
westerly flow that may trigger a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. On Memorial Day, the instability is farther south
along the IA border. Pushed pops a little more to the south with a
dry forecast from the Twin Cities on northward.

Another strong wave will impact the region from Tuesday through
Wednesday with another slug of rainfall. This feature comes at us
from the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF is faster and deeper with
this feature over that of the GFS. The GEM sides more with the GFS
on this one. Rain amounts from 1 to 1.5 inches are possible,
especially from south central Minnesota through the Twin Cities
and west central Wisconsin. The month of May and the start of
June will end/begin on a wet note.

A drying trend will occur in the wake of this feature with deeper
northerly flow aloft developing due to an expanding ridge across
the western United States. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest
days with highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

MVFR and some IFR will predominate through he period as the
surface trough lingers over the area and a few weak shortwaves
move through. Main windows for poor conditions look to be this
afternoon, with some improvement from late afternoon into this
evening, then again late tonight and Saturday morning. Stuck
fairly close to timing of LAMP guidance, but in general did not go
quite as pessimistic with the specifics. Thunder is a possibility,
but doesn`t look sufficiently likely to include at this point,
especially with the better chances for that looking like they`d
occur with the precipitation late tonight/Saturday morning.

KMSP...Have reasonable confidence in the overall forecast and
timing, but do believe it`s possible that conditions could be a
bit worse with both ceiling and visibility in the 09Z-15Z time
period, so subsequent forecasts may need to adjust.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Saturday night...MVFR ceilings possible. Northwest wind 5 to 10
knots.
Sunday...VFR, but brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. West wind 5 to 15 knots.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 271047
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
547 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The short term concern remains the extent of shower/thunder threat
today and tonight and cloud trends.

Water vapor imagery currently showing remnants of Iowa convection
lifting north in southerly flow aloft over the central conus.
Radar has been showing some isolated activity trying to develop in
weak theta-e advection over the area, We do expect coverage to
increase during the morning..similar to trend of the Hopwrf mean
as the wave lifts out to the north. We will continue the trend of
likely pop as it moves through. There should be some break in the
overall coverage of any showers into the afternoon from the
south...and this should linger into the evening. Cloud cover is
expected to remain much of the day as moisture continues to stream
north. This should limit heating somewhat and help keep
temperatures into the low-mid 70s and keep the severe weather
threat low for the cwa.

The upper trough to the southwest is forecast to lift northeast
later tonight and should begin to generate more widespread activity
mainly late tonight.  We will increase pops once again after 06z
sat...into central MN by 12z. QPF forecast should range around three
tenths of an inch to the west and up to three-quarters of an inch to
the east through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The long term period will begin with a significant closed upper
low/short wave lifting slowly northeastward across the forecast
area. This feature has been well advertised and remains in great
agreement between the various deterministic solutions. Hence,
showers are likely with thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon and continuing for a time Saturday evening. Rain amounts
from a half to three-quarters of an inch are likely as well. A
concern on Saturday is a potential bust with the high
temperatures. 850mb temperatures are only in the 12 to 14 deg C
range. With a very moist column, it may be hard to get past the
upper 60s to lower 70s from west to east. Therefore, trimmed back
the highs into the lower to middle 70s which still may be on the
warm side but it does leave some room in case the showers are not
as widespread as forecast and some breaks in the clouds occur.

This wave will exit the area on Sunday with weak surface ridging
and height rises aloft. The day may be pretty much dry. The fly-
in-the-ointment is the instability that develops across the area
during the afternoon with SBCAPE from 1000-1500 j/kg along with
the best LI from -4 to -6. A small disturbance is seen in the
westerly flow that may trigger a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. On Memorial Day, the instability is farther south
along the IA border. Pushed pops a little more to the south with a
dry forecast from the Twin Cities on northward.

Another strong wave will impact the region from Tuesday through
Wednesday with another slug of rainfall. This feature comes at us
from the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF is faster and deeper with
this feature over that of the GFS. The GEM sides more with the GFS
on this one. Rain amounts from 1 to 1.5 inches are possible,
especially from south central Minnesota through the Twin Cities
and west central Wisconsin. The month of May and the start of
June will end/begin on a wet note.

A drying trend will occur in the wake of this feature with deeper
northerly flow aloft developing due to an expanding ridge across
the western United States. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest
days with highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Area of showers lifting mainly across eastern areas. This should
fill in through the morning and continue to lift into
central/northern MN. Area of thunder moving through southern WI
now...should affect eastern areas into the morning as well.
Instability will develop to east per model trends and will limit
it to eastern taf sites for now. Cigs are expected to lower as
well...and will mention mvfr cigs developing from west to east
06z-12z sat. We could see lower ifr cigs across the northern area
as weak surface trough moves into central mn...but confidence
remains low at this time. Also...fog is expected with 3-5sm at
least. Will work that into the area for now. Expect next -shra
surge to develop later tonight...mainly after 06z-09z and will
linger through much of sat morning.

KMSP... Primary window for thunder looks to be from 13-17Z with
showers beginning as early as 13Z. MVFR conditions are possible
with the stronger showers and thunderstorms...with more
widespread MVFR cigs developing late tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Chance MVFR. TSRA Likely. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...Chance MVFR. Chance of TSRA. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE




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