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000
FXUS63 KDLH 201137
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE ON-GOING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SRN SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL...WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BACK TOWARD SRN MN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE THE NEAR-SFC AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO
SATURATION. VSBYS HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-5 MILES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...AND COULD POSSIBLY DIP TO AROUND 1 MI IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND COMBINE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING FROM THE SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY BUT CHANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NORTHLAND. ONE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO SRN MN/SWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL RIDE IN
FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC...BUT NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE END RESULT IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
60S AGAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS THERE BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND
CLEAR...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WING WE
SHOULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS COOLER AT THIS POINT THAN THE GFS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH TIMING IS GOING TO BE QUITE TRICKY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE DEEPER AND SLOWER GFS.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE OR TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT...BUT EXPECT TO BE
MAKING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

SATURDAY CHILLY BUT QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
KDLH...KHIB...AND KHYR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT OR
ABOVE 3KFT...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BROKEN. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  38  60  33 /  10  10  10   0
INL  60  40  52  31 /  10  30  20  10
BRD  68  44  63  35 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  63  38  65  33 /  10  20  30   0
ASX  56  33  62  34 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 201119
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
619 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS DROP
FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND WINDS IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRIMARY ISSUES ARE AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY OCCURRING... CHANCES FOR
SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER
TONIGHT. SHRA FROM OVERNIGHT HAS FINALLY SAGGED SOUTH OF MOST OF
THE AREA... ALTHOUGH KEAU COULD STILL SEE SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE DAY... BUT AN UPPER WAVE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD WORK TO BRING SOME SHRA BACK NORTH AGAIN. AT THIS POINT DID
NOT INCLUDE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN... BUT TRIED TO REFLECT
SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE FOG WHICH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND SOME LOCALIZED IFR AND LIFR. LUCKILY SUNRISE WILL BE
OCCURRING... SO WE SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MANY FOG CONCERNS BEYOND
13... EXCEPT NEAR KRNH WHERE THE LOSS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY ALLOWED THINGS TO
BECOME VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z... WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT OK.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE FOG DURING THE FIRST HOUR
OR TWO OF THE TAF... WHICH COULD BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO AOB 1SM.
HOWEVER... GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AND THE FACT
THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF... DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT LOW IN THE
FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PCPN RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. TRIED TO CAPTURE A COUPLE OF
POTENTIAL TIME FRAMES WHEN SHRA LOOK MOST LIKELY NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE THIS EVENING AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE THE TIMING VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST...
SO THAT WILL LIKELY BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200859
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE ON-GOING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SRN SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL...WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BACK TOWARD SRN MN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE THE NEAR-SFC AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO
SATURATION. VSBYS HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-5 MILES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...AND COULD POSSIBLY DIP TO AROUND 1 MI IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND COMBINE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING FROM THE SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY BUT CHANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NORTHLAND. ONE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO SRN MN/SWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL RIDE IN
FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC...BUT NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE END RESULT IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
60S AGAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS THERE BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND
CLEAR...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WING WE
SHOULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS COOLER AT THIS POINT THAN THE GFS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH TIMING IS GOING TO BE QUITE TRICKY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE DEEPER AND SLOWER GFS.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE OR TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT...BUT EXPECT TO BE
MAKING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

SATURDAY CHILLY BUT QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER HYR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF HYR. STILL ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS QUIET WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  38  60  33 /  10  10  10   0
INL  60  40  52  31 /  10  30  20  10
BRD  68  44  63  35 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  63  38  65  33 /  10  20  30   0
ASX  56  33  62  34 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200829
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS DROP
FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND WINDS IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT PCPN ON
NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST... WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHRA GOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KMSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN DROP IT
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS KEAU BY MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHRA... BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DIP
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SCATTERED SHRA WE/RE SEEING FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW MELTED YESTERDAY. COULD
DEFINITELY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT KSTC
AND KRNH THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT
ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REJUVENATING THE
SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STILL
BE LOITERING IN THE VICINITY. IT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z... SO AT THIS POINT THE ONLY TAF WHERE ANY MENTION IS
NEEDED SHOULD BE KMSP... SO INCLUDED A VCSH THERE AFTER 07Z.

KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WHEN WE/LL SEE THE CURRENT
SHRA ACTIVITY FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING... BUT IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
1-2 HOURS SLOWER. IN ADDITION... INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEPARTS AND WE POTENTIALLY SEE
A BIT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY
IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW... AND IT COULD EASILY NOT OCCUR OR BE A BIT
WORSE SHOULD CLOUDS DEPART MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200524
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS OFF THE 19.12 GFS IDENTIFIED 5 WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THREE OF THESE WAVES WERE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ONE IN THE
CENTER WAS OVER MANITOBA...WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE EQUIDISTANT
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE WITH THE REMAINING TWO WAVES WERE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRADDLING EITHER COAST...WITH ONE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA...AND THE OTHER OVER FLORIDA.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
OVER MANITOBA REVEALED A 1004MB SURFACE LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY HAD DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AS OF 19Z. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED
POPS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND CAUSE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM ALONG THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MIDWEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM OMAHA...THROUGH LA
CROSSE WI...TO GREEN BAY WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE THUNDER AS WELL...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI. MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE THAN AN
INCH OF QPF LIKELY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A
GROWING CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND EC WOULD
SUGGEST HAVING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. WE NOTICED TODAY THAT THE EC WAS A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HELD LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO EAU
CLAIRE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO LADYSMITH.

THE SHOWERS END EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED AT THIS
TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
EC WOULD HAVE THE LOW REACHING SOUTHERN MN. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON ALL THREE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THURSDAY
HAPPENS TO BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER DRILL DAY.

THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS HOW FAST THIS STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE EC IS THE FASTEST AND WOULD HAVE
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GEM WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS...IT WOULD OFFER
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT PCPN ON
NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST... WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHRA GOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KMSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN DROP IT
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS KEAU BY MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHRA... BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DIP
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SCATTERED SHRA WE/RE SEEING FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW MELTED YESTERDAY. COULD
DEFINITELY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT KSTC
AND KRNH THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT
ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REJUVENATING THE
SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STILL
BE LOITERING IN THE VICINITY. IT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z... SO AT THIS POINT THE ONLY TAF WHERE ANY MENTION IS
NEEDED SHOULD BE KMSP... SO INCLUDED A VCSH THERE AFTER 07Z.

KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WHEN WE/LL SEE THE CURRENT
SHRA ACTIVITY FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING... BUT IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
1-2 HOURS SLOWER. IN ADDITION... INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEPARTS AND WE POTENTIALLY SEE
A BIT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY
IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW... AND IT COULD EASILY NOT OCCUR OR BE A BIT
WORSE SHOULD CLOUDS DEPART MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200503
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1203 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA AT
11 PM. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BECOMING LARGER IN VCNTY OF THIS
FRONT AND HAVE DIALED BACK ON THE PATCHY FOG MENTION. MAINTAINED
THE PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE SMALLER. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MENTIONED OVER SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL WI AND MOVE TOWARD PRICE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER HYR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF HYR. STILL ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS QUIET WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200416
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1116 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA AT
11 PM. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BECOMING LARGER IN VCNTY OF THIS
FRONT AND HAVE DIALED BACK ON THE PATCHY FOG MENTION. MAINTAINED
THE PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE SMALLER. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MENTIONED OVER SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL WI AND MOVE TOWARD PRICE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200104
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
804 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS OFF THE 19.12 GFS IDENTIFIED 5 WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THREE OF THESE WAVES WERE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ONE IN THE
CENTER WAS OVER MANITOBA...WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE EQUIDISTANT
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE WITH THE REMAINING TWO WAVES WERE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRADDLING EITHER COAST...WITH ONE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA...AND THE OTHER OVER FLORIDA.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
OVER MANITOBA REVEALED A 1004MB SURFACE LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY HAD DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AS OF 19Z. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED
POPS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND CAUSE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM ALONG THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MIDWEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM OMAHA...THROUGH LA
CROSSE WI...TO GREEN BAY WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE THUNDER AS WELL...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI. MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE THAN AN
INCH OF QPF LIKELY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A
GROWING CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND EC WOULD
SUGGEST HAVING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. WE NOTICED TODAY THAT THE EC WAS A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HELD LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO EAU
CLAIRE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO LADYSMITH.

THE SHOWERS END EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED AT THIS
TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
EC WOULD HAVE THE LOW REACHING SOUTHERN MN. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON ALL THREE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THURSDAY
HAPPENS TO BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER DRILL DAY.

THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS HOW FAST THIS STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE EC IS THE FASTEST AND WOULD HAVE
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GEM WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS...IT WOULD OFFER
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUIET AVIATION PERIOD AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEAL
WITH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
THE CLOUD COVER PRODUCING THE SHOWERS IS ALL 5K FEET AND UP.
LATEST HOPWRF RUN AND SHOW BAND OF PRECIPITATION STALLING FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY.

KMSP...BAND OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE SOUTH. WITH OTHERWISE VFR
CIGS EXPECTED...THIS BAND IS OF HIGHEST CONCERN TO THE AIRFIELD.
LATEST HOPWRF AND HRRR SUGGEST PRECIP BAND LINGERING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE SOUTH METRO...SO DID INCLUDE SOME SHRA...BUT IT IS
VERY BORDERLINE AND MAY END UP SETTING UP 20 TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF
MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N 5 TO 10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSE AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200001
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN NODAK INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  31  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  37  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  39  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  39  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 192046
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS OFF THE 19.12 GFS IDENTIFIED 5 WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THREE OF THESE WAVES WERE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ONE IN THE
CENTER WAS OVER MANITOBA...WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE EQUIDISTANT
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE WITH THE REMAINING TWO WAVES WERE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRADDLING EITHER COAST...WITH ONE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA...AND THE OTHER OVER FLORIDA.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
OVER MANITOBA REVEALED A 1004MB SURFACE LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY HAD DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AS OF 19Z. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED
POPS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND CAUSE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM ALONG THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MIDWEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM OMAHA...THROUGH LA
CROSSE WI...TO GREEN BAY WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE THUNDER AS WELL...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI. MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE THAN AN
INCH OF QPF LIKELY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A
GROWING CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND EC WOULD
SUGGEST HAVING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. WE NOTICED TODAY THAT THE EC WAS A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HELD LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO EAU
CLAIRE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO LADYSMITH.

THE SHOWERS END EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED AT THIS
TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
EC WOULD HAVE THE LOW REACHING SOUTHERN MN. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON ALL THREE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THURSDAY
HAPPENS TO BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER DRILL DAY.

THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS HOW FAST THIS STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE EC IS THE FASTEST AND WOULD HAVE
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GEM WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS...IT WOULD OFFER
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT AS OF 1PM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ST CLOUD TO
ASHLAND WI. HERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINED UP WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE WERE
GUSTING 20 TO 30KTS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LINE.
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST...AND SO TO
WILL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

KMSP...CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
KMSP...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N 5 TO 10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSE AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KDLH 192044
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
344 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN NODAK INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.




.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.


.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG DUE TO
TODAYS RAIN/SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  31  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  37  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  39  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  39  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  MOVEMENT IS EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
50 KTS. THIS DOES EXTEND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTER SOUTH
DAKOTA.  PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE...AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WINDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL...WITH STRONG LLJ
ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ISOLD THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. WE DO EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN. THE BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING.  INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER WITH THE SYSTEM.  BEST LI`S ARE FAIRLY MEAGER AND THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF MN.  STILL
WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED TYPE SHOWERS.  WILL RETAIN THE ISOLD THUNDER
MENTION AS WELL...ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE CLOSE TO 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH
60S COMMON IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MN.  CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE
SOUTH...BUT CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS FAR
SRN MN AND PORTIONS OF WRN WI...BUT THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. NAM/GFS ARE
MUCH DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER
NORTH AND SEEM TO PHASE A BIT WITH THE FEATURE APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. DID NOT MODIFY POPS A WHOLE LOT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY...BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED A BIT IF THE NAM/GFS TREND TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEW POINTS MAY END UP BEING A BIT DRIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EASILY TAPPING INTO THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
MAKING FOR A RATHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS NRN MN AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THERMAL RIDGING WILL BE TAMPED
DOWN LATE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME AND AVAILABLE
SUNSHINE TO BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS MN WILL BECOME ELONGATED...
STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST...A COOL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ROBUST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD
THE EML NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI MIDWEEK. LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES THE
SYSTEM OVER THE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GEM IS FURTHER NORTH AND NEUTRALLY
TILTED WITH THE WARM SECTOR PUSHING NORTH INTO MN. THE GFS IS EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...BUT IS QUITE FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
SLOTS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH BACKSIDE SHOWERS REACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT MOST SIGNS POINT TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT AS OF 1PM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ST CLOUD TO
ASHLAND WI. HERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINED UP WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE WERE
GUSTING 20 TO 30KTS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LINE.
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST...AND SO TO
WILL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

KMSP...CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
KMSP...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N 5 TO 10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSE AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191623 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

CLOUD DECK THINNING MORE THAN EXPECTED ALLOWING PARTIALLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO MN ZONES.PRECIP MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS COOK/LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE DROPPED WSY FROM SRN LAKE
AND NRN/CTRL ST LOUIS COUNTIES.





UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
IS OCCURRING OVER ARROWHEAD IN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED BY SPEC MESOANALYSIS. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AT LUTSEN
WITHIN PAST HR AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ENE AS PER LATEST
88D TRENDS. WILL DROP WSY OVER TWIN PORTS AS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAIN RESULT SO FAR HAS BEEN ON DECKS...TREE LIMBS...AND
OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS. ANY ADDITIONAL ICING WOULD BE MINIMAL.
ENDING PRECIP EARLIER OVER WRN CWA BASED ON LATEST ANIMATION OF
SAT IMAGERY AND OUTPUT FROM HI-RES NWP. WILL LET NRN ST LOUIS WSY
GO A LITTLE LONGER HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT EARLIER THAN
ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  60  40  10  10
ASX  49  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191454 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
IS OCCURRING OVER ARROWHEAD IN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED BY SPEC MESOANALYSIS. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AT LUTSEN
WITHIN PAST HR AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ENE AS PER LATEST
88D TRENDS. WILL DROP WSY OVER TWIN PORTS AS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAIN RESULT SO FAR HAS BEEN ON DECKS...TREE LIMBS...AND
OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS. ANY ADDITIONAL ICING WOULD BE MINIMAL.
ENDING PRECIP EARLIER OVER WRN CWA BASED ON LATEST ANIMATION OF
SAT IMAGERY AND OUTPUT FROM HI-RES NWP. WILL LET NRN ST LOUIS WSY
GO A LITTLE LONGER HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT EARLIER THAN
ISSUED.





UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  49  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ011-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191154
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  46  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 191026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  MOVEMENT IS EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
50 KTS. THIS DOES EXTEND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTER SOUTH
DAKOTA.  PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE...AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WINDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL...WITH STRONG LLJ
ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ISOLD THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. WE DO EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN. THE BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING.  INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER WITH THE SYSTEM.  BEST LI`S ARE FAIRLY MEAGER AND THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF MN.  STILL
WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED TYPE SHOWERS.  WILL RETAIN THE ISOLD THUNDER
MENTION AS WELL...ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE CLOSE TO 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH
60S COMMON IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MN.  CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE
SOUTH...BUT CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS FAR
SRN MN AND PORTIONS OF WRN WI...BUT THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. NAM/GFS ARE
MUCH DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER
NORTH AND SEEM TO PHASE A BIT WITH THE FEATURE APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. DID NOT MODIFY POPS A WHOLE LOT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY...BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED A BIT IF THE NAM/GFS TREND TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEW POINTS MAY END UP BEING A BIT DRIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EASILY TAPPING INTO THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
MAKING FOR A RATHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS NRN MN AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THERMAL RIDGING WILL BE TAMPED
DOWN LATE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME AND AVAILABLE
SUNSHINE TO BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS MN WILL BECOME ELONGATED...
STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST...A COOL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ROBUST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD
THE EML NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI MIDWEEK. LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES THE
SYSTEM OVER THE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GEM IS FURTHER NORTH AND NEUTRALLY
TILTED WITH THE WARM SECTOR PUSHING NORTH INTO MN. THE GFS IS EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...BUT IS QUITE FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
SLOTS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH BACKSIDE SHOWERS REACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT MOST SIGNS POINT TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS OF SHRA LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN NORTH...AFFECTING KAXN/KSTC. THEN
FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FORCING REMAINS WEAK...BUT SCT SHRA STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. ANY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE THREAT WILL END WITH FROPA. STRONG SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING EAST AND SOUTH...DIMINISHING
FIRST TO THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST TO WET WITH FROPA...AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTH OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
STILL THINK MOST OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEST SHOT AT
SHRA IN THE 19Z/23Z PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
DIMINISH AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KTS BECOMING VRBL.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190912
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
412 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN MOVES NEARBY.
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E. HAVE A BRIEF 2 TO 3 HOUR MENTION
OF -FZRA AT DLH/HIB/INL FROM 10Z TO 13Z. PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
AFTER 13Z. GUSTY SFC WIND WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 00Z/20. PATCHY BR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER SUNDOWN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  51  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  58  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  51  39  64  37 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  46  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190840
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  MOVEMENT IS EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
50 KTS. THIS DOES EXTEND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTER SOUTH
DAKOTA.  PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE...AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WINDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL...WITH STRONG LLJ
ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ISOLD THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. WE DO EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN. THE BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING.  INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER WITH THE SYSTEM.  BEST LI`S ARE FAIRLY MEAGER AND THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF MN.  STILL
WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED TYPE SHOWERS.  WILL RETAIN THE ISOLD THUNDER
MENTION AS WELL...ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE CLOSE TO 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH
60S COMMON IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MN.  CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE
SOUTH...BUT CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS FAR
SRN MN AND PORTIONS OF WRN WI...BUT THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. NAM/GFS ARE
MUCH DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER
NORTH AND SEEM TO PHASE A BIT WITH THE FEATURE APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. DID NOT MODIFY POPS A WHOLE LOT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY...BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED A BIT IF THE NAM/GFS TREND TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF.

MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEW POINTS MAY END UP BEING A BIT DRIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EASILY TAPPING INTO THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
MAKING FOR A RATHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS NRN MN AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THERMAL RIDGING WILL BE TAMPED
DOWN LATE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME AND AVAILABLE
SUNSHINE TO BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS MN WILL BECOME ELONGATED...
STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST...A COOL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ROBUST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD
THE EML NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI MIDWEEK. LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES THE
SYSTEM OVER THE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GEM IS FURTHER NORTH AND NEUTRALLY
TILTED WITH THE WARM SECTOR PUSHING NORTH INTO MN. THE GFS IS EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...BUT IS QUITE FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
SLOTS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH BACKSIDE SHOWERS REACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT MOST SIGNS POINT TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THERE IS CHANCE FOR TWO ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WE ARE STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL...TO
CENTRAL...TO NORTHWEST WI. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT
KSTC AND KAXN WITH THE EARLY ROUND. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A 2-3 PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS /BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS/ AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS.

KMSP...

WE THINK MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN 40-60 MILES W-NW OF THE AIRPORT. THAT
BEING SAID...THE RISK FOR THUNDER AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SLOWLY VEER EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS
LATE.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190452
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN JUST A BIT. USED THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRIM BACK THE ICE ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN MOVES NEARBY.
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E. HAVE A BRIEF 2 TO 3 HOUR MENTION
OF -FZRA AT DLH/HIB/INL FROM 10Z TO 13Z. PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
AFTER 13Z. GUSTY SFC WIND WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 00Z/20. PATCHY BR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER SUNDOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  90  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  20  70  50   0
ASX  28  49  38  59 /  50  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-
     037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-
     026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190243
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
943 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS IDENTIFIED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO.
THE NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTED
IN EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DRIVING
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL MIRROR THE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION...WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE...SO SHOULD SEE A LINE OF RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
SO HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WILL MITIGATE AFTERNOON
HIGHS...BUT THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD RAISE TEMPS NEAR
70 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE NORTH. IF THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ABSENT FROM THIS FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK...
BUT REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK... ALTHOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SHOULD
BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER WAVE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH THE LATEST GFS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN IT
WAS WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...
NEITHER IS EXACTLY FAST WITH THAT FEATURE... WHICH MEANS WE/LL
HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO HANG
UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN MID-UPPER FLOW SHIFTS A BIT
NORTH AND IS ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR
CHANCES OF PCPN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E HOVERING
NEAR/BELOW ZERO ACROSS THAT AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY ASSERT ITSELF BY MONDAY TO PUSH ANY LINGERING PCPN
SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA... WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS WELL... SO A MENTION OF THUNDER
WILL NEED TO ACCOMPANY THE ELEVATED POPS. SHOULD WE GET MORE
ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN EXPECTED WE MIGHT NEED TO THINK MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS... BUT AT THIS POINT THE
BETTER INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH BY FRIDAY... BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL LOITER OVER THE REGION...
NECESSITATING A CONTINUATION OF SOME CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THERE IS CHANCE FOR TWO ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WE ARE STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL...TO
CENTRAL...TO NORTHWEST WI. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT
KSTC AND KAXN WITH THE EARLY ROUND. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A 2-3 PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS /BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS/ AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS.

KMSP...

WE THINK MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN 40-60 MILES W-NW OF THE AIRPORT. THAT
BEING SAID...THE RISK FOR THUNDER AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SLOWLY VEER EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS
LATE.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN JUST A BIT. USED THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRIM BACK THE ICE ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS.
HYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE GUSTY WIND. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 06Z AT INL/BRD AND SPREAD E OVERNIGHT REACHING HYR BY 13Z.
-FZRASN AT INL BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z. -FZRA AT
HIB/DLH CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AT HIB BY 12Z AND DLH BY 15Z. BRD/HYR
WILL SEE ALL RAIN. MVFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE BANDS OF PCPN
AT HIB AND INL. THE GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  90  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  20  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  50  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS.
HYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE GUSTY WIND. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 06Z AT INL/BRD AND SPREAD E OVERNIGHT REACHING HYR BY 13Z.
-FZRASN AT INL BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z. -FZRA AT
HIB/DLH CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AT HIB BY 12Z AND DLH BY 15Z. BRD/HYR
WILL SEE ALL RAIN. MVFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE BANDS OF PCPN
AT HIB AND INL. THE GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  80  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  30  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182016
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEING IN THE WEST NEAR 06S THEN SPREAD
EAST. CIGS WILL FALL TO AOB OVC010 WITH VSBYS BLO 3SM FROM KDLH AND
NORTH. KBRD AND KHYR ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT CIGS
THERE WILL BE MVFR. ONCE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AFT 12Z SOME OF THE
AREAS WILL SEE THE FZRA AND SNOW TURN TO RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  80  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  30  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181951
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS IDENTIFIED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO.
THE NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTED
IN EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DRIVING
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL MIRROR THE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION...WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE...SO SHOULD SEE A LINE OF RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
SO HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WILL MITIGATE AFTERNOON
HIGHS...BUT THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD RAISE TEMPS NEAR
70 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...AND NEAR 60 ACROSS THE NORTH. IF THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ABSENT FROM THIS FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK...
BUT REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK... ALTHOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SHOULD
BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER WAVE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH THE LATEST GFS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN IT
WAS WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...
NEITHER IS EXACTLY FAST WITH THAT FEATURE... WHICH MEANS WE/LL
HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO HANG
UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN MID-UPPER FLOW SHIFTS A BIT
NORTH AND IS ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR
CHANCES OF PCPN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E HOVERING
NEAR/BELOW ZERO ACROSS THAT AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY ASSERT ITSELF BY MONDAY TO PUSH ANY LINGERING PCPN
SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA... WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS WELL... SO A MENTION OF THUNDER
WILL NEED TO ACCOMPANY THE ELEVATED POPS. SHOULD WE GET MORE
ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN EXPECTED WE MIGHT NEED TO THINK MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS... BUT AT THIS POINT THE
BETTER INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH BY FRIDAY... BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL LOITER OVER THE REGION...
NECESSITATING A CONTINUATION OF SOME CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
CLOUD BASES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE
RAIN...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE VFR THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH
AND WEST OF KMSP...SO JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE TAFS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHC MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181756
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE FOG TO THE EAST AND THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST TODAY.  THEN FOCUS TURNS TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MAINLY CLEAR EAST THIS MORNING.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FOG INTO EASTERN PARTS OF MINNESOTA...INTO EARLY MORNING.
MAY GO LOCALLY DENSE IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR A TIME...BEFORE
THE CLOUDS COME IN BY 12Z OR SO.  WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.  THEN THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER INTO THE MORNING OVER WESTERN AREAS.
THERE IS SOME FGEN MOVING INTO THE WEST...AND CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED
TO AROUND 5K FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS.  THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN/-SHRA THROUGH THE MORNING.  PRETTY DRY
FARTHER TO THE EAST...SO DO ANTICIPATE ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP TO
DRY UP AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THEN THE NEXT THREAT OF WEATHER ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AREAS.  WAA AND INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EAST INTO
EASTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE HEADING EAST SATURDAY. FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS SATURDAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY IT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO STRONG WAA. BREAKS
IN THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WILL BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDER...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO
NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND STALL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS FAR SRN
MN AND PORTIONS OF WRN WI.

MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS MAY END UP BEING
A BIT DRIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EASILY TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND MAKING FOR A RATHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS NRN MN AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THERMAL RIDGING WILL BE TAMPED
DOWN LATE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME AND AVAILABLE
SUNSHINE TO BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE RIDGE PUSHING ACROSS MN WILL BECOME ELONGATED...STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK.
AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST...A COOL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ROBUST WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD THE EML
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI MIDWEEK. LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE SPREAD AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS DECREASED ENOUGH
TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
CLOUD BASES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE
RAIN...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE VFR THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH
AND WEST OF KMSP...SO JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE TAFS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...CHC MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS WC
MN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

AT 4 AM...THERE WAS A VARIETY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
MID CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON AREA RADARS ACROSS SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WC MN. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL POP ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IN CASE IT GROWS A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED. NAM MAINTAINS NO QPF AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOWS LOW
REFLECTIVITY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

DESPITE HAVING A MAJOR SNOW STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MELTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. INTENSE WAA DUE TO A 60 KNOT LLJ...ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE 4 KM NMM WRF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH ITS FORECAST REFLECTIVITY OVERNIGHT...AND QPF IS QUITE HIGH.
PTYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF ICY
PRECIPITATION. A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER COULD RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET FOR A TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
COMPLEX SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OUR CONCERN IS
GROWING THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THINK
SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD...WITH AN INCH OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR EITHER
THE ICE OR THE SNOW. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE SLICK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ENE THROUGH
FAR NW ONTARIO. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER. PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WITH MUCH WARMER
WEATHER THAN OUR RECENT COLD STREAK...AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TUESDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S SHOULD MELT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE...AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH IS WHY TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. INCREASE SOUTH TO SSE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...PARTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING MUCH HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEING IN THE WEST NEAR 06S THEN SPREAD
EAST. CIGS WILL FALL TO AOB OV010 WITH VSBYS BLO 3SM FROM KDLH AND
NORTH. KBRD AND KHYR ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT CIGS
THERE WILL BE MVFR. ONCE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AFT 12Z SOME OF THE
AREAS WILL SEE THE FZRA AND SNOW TURN TO RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  28  47  35 /  10  60  80  10
INL  46  31  51  35 /  10  70  80   0
BRD  49  36  61  37 /  10  60  70   0
HYR  46  30  56  39 /  10  20  70  50
ASX  42  27  51  37 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-026-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC







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