Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 201835
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVAILING TREND THIS MONTH...WHICH
IS TO RAISE CEILINGS AND IMPROVE VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS AT NIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW AND MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW MID TO LATE
MORNING THAT COULD YIELD LIGHT PRECIP...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD THAT WILL BE - WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FOR THE PRECIP TOMORROW.

KMSP...

IT APPEARS AS IF THE IFR HAS LIFTED AT THE AIRPORT ALREADY AND MAY
EVEN IMPROVE A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE TYPICALLY SEE
CEILINGS LOWER AND THE VIS BECOME WORSE AT NIGHT...SO THAT`S THE
TREND WE`RE FOLLOWING OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -RA. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 201835
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVAILING TREND THIS MONTH...WHICH
IS TO RAISE CEILINGS AND IMPROVE VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS AT NIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW AND MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW MID TO LATE
MORNING THAT COULD YIELD LIGHT PRECIP...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD THAT WILL BE - WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FOR THE PRECIP TOMORROW.

KMSP...

IT APPEARS AS IF THE IFR HAS LIFTED AT THE AIRPORT ALREADY AND MAY
EVEN IMPROVE A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE TYPICALLY SEE
CEILINGS LOWER AND THE VIS BECOME WORSE AT NIGHT...SO THAT`S THE
TREND WE`RE FOLLOWING OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -RA. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 201835
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVAILING TREND THIS MONTH...WHICH
IS TO RAISE CEILINGS AND IMPROVE VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS AT NIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW AND MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW MID TO LATE
MORNING THAT COULD YIELD LIGHT PRECIP...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD THAT WILL BE - WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FOR THE PRECIP TOMORROW.

KMSP...

IT APPEARS AS IF THE IFR HAS LIFTED AT THE AIRPORT ALREADY AND MAY
EVEN IMPROVE A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE TYPICALLY SEE
CEILINGS LOWER AND THE VIS BECOME WORSE AT NIGHT...SO THAT`S THE
TREND WE`RE FOLLOWING OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -RA. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 201835
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVAILING TREND THIS MONTH...WHICH
IS TO RAISE CEILINGS AND IMPROVE VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY AND LOWER THE CIGS/VIS AT NIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW AND MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW MID TO LATE
MORNING THAT COULD YIELD LIGHT PRECIP...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD THAT WILL BE - WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FOR THE PRECIP TOMORROW.

KMSP...

IT APPEARS AS IF THE IFR HAS LIFTED AT THE AIRPORT ALREADY AND MAY
EVEN IMPROVE A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE TYPICALLY SEE
CEILINGS LOWER AND THE VIS BECOME WORSE AT NIGHT...SO THAT`S THE
TREND WE`RE FOLLOWING OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -RA. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 201821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1221 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DIMINISHED...AREAS OF FOG AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE UNTREATED
SIDEWALKS/ROADS TO BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHICHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A
NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVC LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM BR/HZ AND -SN. THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. THE KHYR AREA HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CIGS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE LOWERING CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BET
IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER VSBYS DUE TO HZ/BR AND OCCASIONAL -SN. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE A
VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  32  31  33 /  40  40  50  70
INL  27  32  29  32 /  60  60  20  40
BRD  27  34  31  34 /  30  30  50  70
HYR  27  34  33  36 /  30  40  60  70
ASX  27  35  33  37 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1221 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DIMINISHED...AREAS OF FOG AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE UNTREATED
SIDEWALKS/ROADS TO BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHICHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A
NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVC LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM BR/HZ AND -SN. THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. THE KHYR AREA HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CIGS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE LOWERING CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BET
IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER VSBYS DUE TO HZ/BR AND OCCASIONAL -SN. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE A
VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  32  31  33 /  40  40  50  70
INL  27  32  29  32 /  60  60  20  40
BRD  27  34  31  34 /  30  30  50  70
HYR  27  34  33  36 /  30  40  60  70
ASX  27  35  33  37 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 201802 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHICHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A
NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVC LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VBSYS FROM BR/HZ AND -SN. THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. THE KHYR AREA HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CIGS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE LOWERING CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BET
IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER VSBYS DUE TO HZ/BR AND OCCASIONAL -SN. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE A
VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  27  32  31 /  40  40  40  50
INL  30  27  32  29 /  40  60  60  20
BRD  31  27  34  31 /  20  30  30  50
HYR  31  27  34  33 /  30  30  40  60
ASX  33  27  35  33 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201802 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHICHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A
NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVC LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VBSYS FROM BR/HZ AND -SN. THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. THE KHYR AREA HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CIGS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE LOWERING CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BET
IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER VSBYS DUE TO HZ/BR AND OCCASIONAL -SN. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE A
VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  27  32  31 /  40  40  40  50
INL  30  27  32  29 /  40  60  60  20
BRD  31  27  34  31 /  20  30  30  50
HYR  31  27  34  33 /  30  30  40  60
ASX  33  27  35  33 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201802 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHICHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A
NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVC LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VBSYS FROM BR/HZ AND -SN. THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. THE KHYR AREA HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CIGS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE LOWERING CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BET
IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER VSBYS DUE TO HZ/BR AND OCCASIONAL -SN. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE A
VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  27  32  31 /  40  40  40  50
INL  30  27  32  29 /  40  60  60  20
BRD  31  27  34  31 /  20  30  30  50
HYR  31  27  34  33 /  30  30  40  60
ASX  33  27  35  33 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201802 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHICHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A
NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OVC LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VBSYS FROM BR/HZ AND -SN. THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. THE KHYR AREA HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CIGS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE LOWERING CIGS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BET
IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWER VSBYS DUE TO HZ/BR AND OCCASIONAL -SN. THERE IS
A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW BECAUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE A
VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  27  32  31 /  40  40  40  50
INL  30  27  32  29 /  40  60  60  20
BRD  31  27  34  31 /  20  30  30  50
HYR  31  27  34  33 /  30  30  40  60
ASX  33  27  35  33 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201158 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTIES
WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SLEET
MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A NOSE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS FAIRLY LIMITED
ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN
THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPOTTY
IFR. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC006-013 WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1-2SM IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FZDZ. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  28  32  30 /  30  40  40  40
INL  30  27  31  28 /  20  40  30  20
BRD  30  27  33  29 /  10  30  20  50
HYR  30  27  31  31 /  20  20  40  40
ASX  32  26  34  32 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201158 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTIES
WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SLEET
MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A NOSE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS FAIRLY LIMITED
ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN
THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPOTTY
IFR. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC006-013 WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1-2SM IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FZDZ. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  28  32  30 /  30  40  40  40
INL  30  27  31  28 /  20  40  30  20
BRD  30  27  33  29 /  10  30  20  50
HYR  30  27  31  31 /  20  20  40  40
ASX  32  26  34  32 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201115
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... AS WE MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. SOME BR WITH MAINLY ISOLD VSBYS BLO 2SM WITH MAINLY
3-5SM THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
03Z SUN. PRECIPITATION THREAT IS LIMITED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. COULD SEE ACTIVITY BUILD BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS MAINLY AT OR BELLOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL FILL BACK IN TO LOW END
MVFR/BELOW 1700 FT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THWY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1K FEET. IFR POSSIBLE AGIAN LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z
WITH SOME 3-5SM BR AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT WITH THE LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCHES IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201115
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... AS WE MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. SOME BR WITH MAINLY ISOLD VSBYS BLO 2SM WITH MAINLY
3-5SM THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
03Z SUN. PRECIPITATION THREAT IS LIMITED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. COULD SEE ACTIVITY BUILD BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS MAINLY AT OR BELLOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL FILL BACK IN TO LOW END
MVFR/BELOW 1700 FT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THWY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1K FEET. IFR POSSIBLE AGIAN LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z
WITH SOME 3-5SM BR AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT WITH THE LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCHES IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201115
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... AS WE MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. SOME BR WITH MAINLY ISOLD VSBYS BLO 2SM WITH MAINLY
3-5SM THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
03Z SUN. PRECIPITATION THREAT IS LIMITED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. COULD SEE ACTIVITY BUILD BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS MAINLY AT OR BELLOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL FILL BACK IN TO LOW END
MVFR/BELOW 1700 FT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THWY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1K FEET. IFR POSSIBLE AGIAN LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z
WITH SOME 3-5SM BR AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT WITH THE LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCHES IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201115
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... AS WE MAINTAIN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. SOME BR WITH MAINLY ISOLD VSBYS BLO 2SM WITH MAINLY
3-5SM THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
03Z SUN. PRECIPITATION THREAT IS LIMITED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. COULD SEE ACTIVITY BUILD BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS MAINLY AT OR BELLOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL FILL BACK IN TO LOW END
MVFR/BELOW 1700 FT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THWY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1K FEET. IFR POSSIBLE AGIAN LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z
WITH SOME 3-5SM BR AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT WITH THE LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCHES IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF KAXN AND NORTH OF KSTC.
SAID SITES WILL BE JUST ON THE FRINGES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 150-180
DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS. INCREASES
ABOVE THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING BELOW 1400 FT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY...THEN COULD SEE THEM LIFT TO NEAR 1500 FT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LIES
TO THE NORTH OF KMSP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF KAXN AND NORTH OF KSTC.
SAID SITES WILL BE JUST ON THE FRINGES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 150-180
DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS. INCREASES
ABOVE THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING BELOW 1400 FT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY...THEN COULD SEE THEM LIFT TO NEAR 1500 FT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LIES
TO THE NORTH OF KMSP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF KAXN AND NORTH OF KSTC.
SAID SITES WILL BE JUST ON THE FRINGES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 150-180
DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS. INCREASES
ABOVE THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING BELOW 1400 FT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY...THEN COULD SEE THEM LIFT TO NEAR 1500 FT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LIES
TO THE NORTH OF KMSP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201017
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.  FEW
STATIONS REPORTING HAZE/SNOW NEAR BRAINERD AND NEAR MILLE LACS CO.
MAY YET SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN.  NOT TOO WIDESPREAD BUT ARX AND DMX RADARS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE LOWER AND SOME MID 30S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  THIS
SYSTEM RIDES EAST TODAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS WELL...AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND COULD GENERATE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE SOME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG RANGE IS BECOMING EVER MORE COMPLEX AS TIME GOES ON WITH
UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY RISING IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH NEXT WEEK - ONE BEING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER
LOW BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN...TWO IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT BECOMES A MONSTER CYCLONE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AND THE THIRD BEING A PANHANDLE HOOK
SYSTEM ON THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED.

FEATURE NUMBER ONE EMERGES ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENCY WITH THIS HAS DECREASED...WITH EACH
MODEL ADVERTING ITS OWN SOLUTION. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IT SWINGS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS THE
REGION IS DRY SLOTTED. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA...WITH FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ALL OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FAVORING NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IS PROBABLY THE BEST
ROUTE AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN
ON THE SOUTHERN GFS...SHOW JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT QPF
MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST PER THE DRY
SLOTTING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM.

THAT BRINGS US TO FEATURE NUMBER TWO. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FIRST
FEATURE COMPOUNDS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ONE. DEPENDING WHERE
THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW STALLS...IF IT DOES AT ALL...WILL
ULTIMATELY JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM...GEM...AND DGEX STALL THE NORTHERN UPPER
LOW OVER MINNESOTA. THIS ALLOWS THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG MORE
SOUTH THAN EAST...AND BRING THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE OF MICHIGAN OR LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED NEARLY HALF OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN FACT...THE 06Z GFS IS
COMING IN AS THIS AFD IS BEING TYPED AND HAS SHIFTED WEST A BIT
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. A STORM ON
NOV 11 1991 IDENTIFIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG WHICH SUBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIES CLOSEST TO THE UPPER PATTERN...DROPPED A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW /IN EXCESS OF A FOOT/ ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND
WESTERN WI. SO THIS ONE HAS NOT BEEN WRITTEN OFF FOR THE MPX AREA
YET.

FINALLY...FEATURE NUMBER THREE. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE
SECOND FEATURE LATE WEEK. A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL EJECT A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. DECENT BAROCLINICITY AND A ROBUST MID
LEVEL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
FRIDAY. ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER UNCERTAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BUT MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF KAXN AND NORTH OF KSTC.
SAID SITES WILL BE JUST ON THE FRINGES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 150-180
DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS. INCREASES
ABOVE THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING BELOW 1400 FT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY...THEN COULD SEE THEM LIFT TO NEAR 1500 FT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LIES
TO THE NORTH OF KMSP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KDLH 201013
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTIES
WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SLEET
MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A NOSE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS FAIRLY LIMITED
ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN
THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE 06Z
TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THIS VALID TAF PERIOD AS WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE A PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED THE LAST 9-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  28  32  30 /  30  40  40  40
INL  30  27  31  28 /  20  40  30  20
BRD  30  27  33  29 /  10  30  20  50
HYR  30  27  31  31 /  20  20  40  40
ASX  32  26  34  32 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 201013
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LONG-DURATION LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE GRADUALLY TO NEAR-FREEZING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST LOW TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANK IN THE TOP TEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT DLH AND INL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS...ONE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST PUSH OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPENDS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN IN A
FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMED TO BE WORKING
OUT WELL WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG CAUSING ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF AREA EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTERS.
NO SURFACE STATION REPORTS OF FZDZ SPECIFICALLY...BUT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER SENSORS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL DIFFERENTIATING MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE TURNING MORE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WE HAVE BETTER ICE CRYSTAL
GENERATION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MILD...WARMING UP TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...EARLY IN THE EVENING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS AND WARMING AT CLOUD
TOP LEVEL...QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS KOOCHING/ITASCA/NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTIES
WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SLEET
MAY MIX IN AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION DUE TO A NOSE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS IS FAIRLY LIMITED
ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS MID-DAY SUNDAY. LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN
THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ALOFT IN THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION MEANS THE STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
APPROACHING FREEZING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH IN
MOST SPOTS...WITH THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTH POSSIBLY
RECEIVING JUST OVER AN INCH DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD DEVELOP A
THIN LAYER OF ICE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DIGGING TROF THAT WILL CLOSE OFF
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CREATE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THIS WEATHER SCHEME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. AND THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BUT WHERE THESE WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI...WHERE AN AREA OF STRONG
FGEN WILL DEVELOP...WITH NORTHLAND POSSIBLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
LIFT GENERATED BY THE FGEN PROCESS. THIS AREA REMAINS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF MONDAY...SO WE`LL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...AS MONDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THERE
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGEOVER OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES..AND WILL REFINE
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW SOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE  CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD
GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND AND 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -10C COLD GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE 06Z
TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THIS VALID TAF PERIOD AS WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE A PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED THE LAST 9-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  28  32  30 /  30  40  40  40
INL  30  27  31  28 /  20  40  30  20
BRD  30  27  33  29 /  10  30  20  50
HYR  30  27  31  31 /  20  20  40  40
ASX  32  26  34  32 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200544 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE 06Z
TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THIS VALID TAF PERIOD AS WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE A PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED THE LAST 9-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  29  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  24  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  30  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  24  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  23  32  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200544 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE 06Z
TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THIS VALID TAF PERIOD AS WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE A PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED THE LAST 9-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  29  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  24  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  30  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  24  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  23  32  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KMPX 200429
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1029 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE ARE BACK INTO A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
ENDLESS STRATUS THIS WEEKEND AS WAA IN THE 900 TO 700 MB LAYER
RESULTS IN ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR
AS WARM AS THE WARM NOSE WE WERE DEALING WITH A WEEK AGO. THIS
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT...AND PERSISTENT
SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONLY HELP REINFORCE THE MOISTURE AND KEEP
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONLY HOPE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEEING SOME
CLEARING IS SAT AFTERNOON OUT IN WRN MN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CLEARING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MAKES IT. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE STRATUS STAYING.

FOR PRECIP...THERE WILL BE THREE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA
DURING JUST THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE IS OUT OVER NE MN INTO NRN
WI AND HAS BROUGHT THE OCCASIONAL SNOW REPORT TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR
IN WI...BUT THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE LADYSMITH AREA PRETTY QUICK THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE TWO IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MN PER COOLER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...OMEGA PLOTS SHOW VERY LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION GETTING
INDUCED BY THE WAVE...SO NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE DGZ THAT THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AS WE GET A
SEEDER-FEEDER SCENARIO SETTING UP. FOR DRIZZLE...LIFT DOWN IN THE
STRATUS LAYER LOOKS WEAK AS WELL...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIZZLE EITHER. SHORT TERM HI-RES SUPPORT THE LIMITED PRECIP IDEA
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING REALLY GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
GIVEN THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT...KEPT
PRECIP MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH PATCHY FZDZ. THE
THIRD WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WASH/ORE AND WILL BE GETTING NEAR
WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH
IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FOG THREAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
LOW AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 20S. WILL LIKELY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...BUT THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. INSTEAD...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1 AND 3 MILES IN HAZE AND BR TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...FINISHING IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BY SUNSET SATURDAY. BOOSTED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
AS RESULT...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BASICALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE PTYPE
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. A
LULL IN THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TWIN
CITIES...AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. AREAS
OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THERMAL PROFILE ENDS UP. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. IT IS HERE THAT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY DO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE GFS WOULD BRING A
SURFACE LOW FROM CHICAGO TO THE WESTERN TIP OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AS WELL WHICH CUTS DOWN
ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS 29
MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS WITH 10 MILLIBARS PROGGED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO FROM 12Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW BEING FARTHER EAST...THE DRY SLOW IT FARTHER EAST AND THE FA
IS IN A MUCH BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY. THE GEM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN QUITE
GOOD WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND THIS HAS
ALSO BEEN SEEN IN THE PARALLEL RUN AS WELL. HENCE...IF THE ECMWF
HOLDS...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN STORE.

YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE GFS IS STARTING TO HINT
AT THIS IDEA WHILE THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WE COULD END UP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THESE TWO EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF KAXN AND NORTH OF KSTC.
SAID SITES WILL BE JUST ON THE FRINGES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 150-180
DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS. INCREASES
ABOVE THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING BELOW 1400 FT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY...THEN COULD SEE THEM LIFT TO NEAR 1500 FT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LIES
TO THE NORTH OF KMSP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS






000
FXUS63 KMPX 200429
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1029 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE ARE BACK INTO A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
ENDLESS STRATUS THIS WEEKEND AS WAA IN THE 900 TO 700 MB LAYER
RESULTS IN ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR
AS WARM AS THE WARM NOSE WE WERE DEALING WITH A WEEK AGO. THIS
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT...AND PERSISTENT
SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONLY HELP REINFORCE THE MOISTURE AND KEEP
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONLY HOPE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEEING SOME
CLEARING IS SAT AFTERNOON OUT IN WRN MN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CLEARING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MAKES IT. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE STRATUS STAYING.

FOR PRECIP...THERE WILL BE THREE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA
DURING JUST THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE IS OUT OVER NE MN INTO NRN
WI AND HAS BROUGHT THE OCCASIONAL SNOW REPORT TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR
IN WI...BUT THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE LADYSMITH AREA PRETTY QUICK THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE TWO IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MN PER COOLER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...OMEGA PLOTS SHOW VERY LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION GETTING
INDUCED BY THE WAVE...SO NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE DGZ THAT THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AS WE GET A
SEEDER-FEEDER SCENARIO SETTING UP. FOR DRIZZLE...LIFT DOWN IN THE
STRATUS LAYER LOOKS WEAK AS WELL...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIZZLE EITHER. SHORT TERM HI-RES SUPPORT THE LIMITED PRECIP IDEA
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING REALLY GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
GIVEN THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT...KEPT
PRECIP MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH PATCHY FZDZ. THE
THIRD WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WASH/ORE AND WILL BE GETTING NEAR
WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH
IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FOG THREAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
LOW AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 20S. WILL LIKELY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...BUT THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. INSTEAD...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1 AND 3 MILES IN HAZE AND BR TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...FINISHING IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BY SUNSET SATURDAY. BOOSTED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
AS RESULT...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BASICALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE PTYPE
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. A
LULL IN THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TWIN
CITIES...AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. AREAS
OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THERMAL PROFILE ENDS UP. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. IT IS HERE THAT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY DO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE GFS WOULD BRING A
SURFACE LOW FROM CHICAGO TO THE WESTERN TIP OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AS WELL WHICH CUTS DOWN
ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS 29
MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS WITH 10 MILLIBARS PROGGED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO FROM 12Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW BEING FARTHER EAST...THE DRY SLOW IT FARTHER EAST AND THE FA
IS IN A MUCH BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY. THE GEM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN QUITE
GOOD WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND THIS HAS
ALSO BEEN SEEN IN THE PARALLEL RUN AS WELL. HENCE...IF THE ECMWF
HOLDS...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN STORE.

YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE GFS IS STARTING TO HINT
AT THIS IDEA WHILE THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WE COULD END UP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THESE TWO EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY EAST OF KAXN AND NORTH OF KSTC.
SAID SITES WILL BE JUST ON THE FRINGES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 150-180
DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS. INCREASES
ABOVE THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING BELOW 1400 FT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY...THEN COULD SEE THEM LIFT TO NEAR 1500 FT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LIES
TO THE NORTH OF KMSP OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     050.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200316 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
916 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OF MID EVENING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXHIBIT PRETTY
CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE CHARACTERISTICS..WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ICE..BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING..WE SEE LITTLE
REASON WHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL NOT PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN A FEW PLACES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS MESS WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR NOW..WE HAVE
CONFINED THE ADVISORY TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH/WEST OF A LAKE MILL
LACS TO TWIN PORTS LINE..BUT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS
FARTHER EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT..IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST FOR 12-16 HOURS OR MORE..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE UNTREATED ROADS TO ACQUIRE A THIN COATING OF ICE AND
RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS..AS WELL AS THE
ADVISORY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  30  30  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  10  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200040 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  20  20  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  20  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200040 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  20  20  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  20  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200040 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  20  20  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  20  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200040 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF
THIS 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS VERY SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CEILINGS/FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RESULTANT MORE FROM FOG THAN FROM
PRECIPITATION. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  20  20  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  25  31  26  32 /  20  20  20  30
HYR  22  30  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  31  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE ARE BACK INTO A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
ENDLESS STRATUS THIS WEEKEND AS WAA IN THE 900 TO 700 MB LAYER
RESULTS IN ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR
AS WARM AS THE WARM NOSE WE WERE DEALING WITH A WEEK AGO. THIS
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT...AND PERSISTENT
SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONLY HELP REINFORCE THE MOISTURE AND KEEP
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONLY HOPE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEEING SOME
CLEARING IS SAT AFTERNOON OUT IN WRN MN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CLEARING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MAKES IT. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE STRATUS STAYING.

FOR PRECIP...THERE WILL BE THREE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA
DURING JUST THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE IS OUT OVER NE MN INTO NRN
WI AND HAS BROUGHT THE OCCASIONAL SNOW REPORT TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR
IN WI...BUT THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE LADYSMITH AREA PRETTY QUICK THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE TWO IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MN PER COOLER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...OMEGA PLOTS SHOW VERY LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION GETTING
INDUCED BY THE WAVE...SO NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE DGZ THAT THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AS WE GET A
SEEDER-FEEDER SCENARIO SETTING UP. FOR DRIZZLE...LIFT DOWN IN THE
STRATUS LAYER LOOKS WEAK AS WELL...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIZZLE EITHER. SHORT TERM HI-RES SUPPORT THE LIMITED PRECIP IDEA
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING REALLY GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
GIVEN THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT...KEPT
PRECIP MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH PATCHY FZDZ. THE
THIRD WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WASH/ORE AND WILL BE GETTING NEAR
WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH
IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FOG THREAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
LOW AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 20S. WILL LIKELY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...BUT THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. INSTEAD...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1 AND 3 MILES IN HAZE AND BR TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...FINISHING IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BY SUNSET SATURDAY. BOOSTED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
AS RESULT...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BASICALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE PTYPE
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. A
LULL IN THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TWIN
CITIES...AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. AREAS
OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THERMAL PROFILE ENDS UP. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. IT IS HERE THAT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY DO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE GFS WOULD BRING A
SURFACE LOW FROM CHICAGO TO THE WESTERN TIP OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AS WELL WHICH CUTS DOWN
ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS 29
MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS WITH 10 MILLIBARS PROGGED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO FROM 12Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW BEING FARTHER EAST...THE DRY SLOW IT FARTHER EAST AND THE FA
IS IN A MUCH BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY. THE GEM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN QUITE
GOOD WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND THIS HAS
ALSO BEEN SEEN IN THE PARALLEL RUN AS WELL. HENCE...IF THE ECMWF
HOLDS...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN STORE.

YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE GFS IS STARTING TO HINT
AT THIS IDEA WHILE THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WE COULD END UP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THESE TWO EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME THE STANDARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO
BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE STRATUS...BUT AT THIS POINT
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. NOT
MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT THE STRATUS DECK
SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BEOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HANG
IN THE 150-180 DEGREE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF
5-10 KTS.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT...WITH VSBYS IN
THE 3-5SM RANGE. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL VERY CLOSELY...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE IT BEING AN
ISSUE. MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO A CIG CIRCA 1400 FT AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE ARE BACK INTO A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
ENDLESS STRATUS THIS WEEKEND AS WAA IN THE 900 TO 700 MB LAYER
RESULTS IN ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR
AS WARM AS THE WARM NOSE WE WERE DEALING WITH A WEEK AGO. THIS
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT...AND PERSISTENT
SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONLY HELP REINFORCE THE MOISTURE AND KEEP
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONLY HOPE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEEING SOME
CLEARING IS SAT AFTERNOON OUT IN WRN MN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CLEARING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MAKES IT. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE STRATUS STAYING.

FOR PRECIP...THERE WILL BE THREE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA
DURING JUST THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE IS OUT OVER NE MN INTO NRN
WI AND HAS BROUGHT THE OCCASIONAL SNOW REPORT TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR
IN WI...BUT THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE LADYSMITH AREA PRETTY QUICK THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE TWO IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MN PER COOLER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...OMEGA PLOTS SHOW VERY LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION GETTING
INDUCED BY THE WAVE...SO NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE DGZ THAT THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AS WE GET A
SEEDER-FEEDER SCENARIO SETTING UP. FOR DRIZZLE...LIFT DOWN IN THE
STRATUS LAYER LOOKS WEAK AS WELL...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIZZLE EITHER. SHORT TERM HI-RES SUPPORT THE LIMITED PRECIP IDEA
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING REALLY GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
GIVEN THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT...KEPT
PRECIP MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH PATCHY FZDZ. THE
THIRD WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WASH/ORE AND WILL BE GETTING NEAR
WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH
IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FOG THREAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
LOW AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 20S. WILL LIKELY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...BUT THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. INSTEAD...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1 AND 3 MILES IN HAZE AND BR TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...FINISHING IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BY SUNSET SATURDAY. BOOSTED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
AS RESULT...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BASICALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE PTYPE
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. A
LULL IN THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TWIN
CITIES...AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. AREAS
OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THERMAL PROFILE ENDS UP. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. IT IS HERE THAT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY DO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE GFS WOULD BRING A
SURFACE LOW FROM CHICAGO TO THE WESTERN TIP OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AS WELL WHICH CUTS DOWN
ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS 29
MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS WITH 10 MILLIBARS PROGGED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO FROM 12Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW BEING FARTHER EAST...THE DRY SLOW IT FARTHER EAST AND THE FA
IS IN A MUCH BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY. THE GEM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN QUITE
GOOD WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND THIS HAS
ALSO BEEN SEEN IN THE PARALLEL RUN AS WELL. HENCE...IF THE ECMWF
HOLDS...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN STORE.

YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE GFS IS STARTING TO HINT
AT THIS IDEA WHILE THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WE COULD END UP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THESE TWO EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME THE STANDARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SUB-1000FT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1SM-4SM
RANGE DUE TO THE FOG. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO
BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE STRATUS...BUT AT THIS POINT
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. NOT
MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT THE STRATUS DECK
SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 1500 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VSBYS BEOMING VFR. WINDS WILL HANG
IN THE 150-180 DEGREE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF
5-10 KTS.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT...WITH VSBYS IN
THE 3-5SM RANGE. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL VERY CLOSELY...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE IT BEING AN
ISSUE. MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO A CIG CIRCA 1400 FT AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS






000
FXUS63 KMPX 192154
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE ARE BACK INTO A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
ENDLESS STRATUS THIS WEEKEND AS WAA IN THE 900 TO 700 MB LAYER
RESULTS IN ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR
AS WARM AS THE WARM NOSE WE WERE DEALING WITH A WEEK AGO. THIS
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT...AND PERSISTENT
SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONLY HELP REINFORCE THE MOISTURE AND KEEP
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONLY HOPE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEEING SOME
CLEARING IS SAT AFTERNOON OUT IN WRN MN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CLEARING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MAKES IT. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE STRATUS STAYING.

FOR PRECIP...THERE WILL BE THREE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA
DURING JUST THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE IS OUT OVER NE MN INTO NRN
WI AND HAS BROUGHT THE OCCASIONAL SNOW REPORT TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR
IN WI...BUT THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE LADYSMITH AREA PRETTY QUICK THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE TWO IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MN PER COOLER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...OMEGA PLOTS SHOW VERY LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION GETTING
INDUCED BY THE WAVE...SO NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE DGZ THAT THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AS WE GET A
SEEDER-FEEDER SCENARIO SETTING UP. FOR DRIZZLE...LIFT DOWN IN THE
STRATUS LAYER LOOKS WEAK AS WELL...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIZZLE EITHER. SHORT TERM HI-RES SUPPORT THE LIMITED PRECIP IDEA
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING REALLY GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
GIVEN THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT...KEPT
PRECIP MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH PATCHY FZDZ. THE
THIRD WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WASH/ORE AND WILL BE GETTING NEAR
WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH
IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FOG THREAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
LOW AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 20S. WILL LIKELY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...BUT THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. INSTEAD...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1 AND 3 MILES IN HAZE AND BR TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...FINISHING IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BY SUNSET SATURDAY. BOOSTED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
AS RESULT...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BASICALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE PTYPE
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. A
LULL IN THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TWIN
CITIES...AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. AREAS
OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THERMAL PROFILE ENDS UP. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. IT IS HERE THAT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY DO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE GFS WOULD BRING A
SURFACE LOW FROM CHICAGO TO THE WESTERN TIP OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AS WELL WHICH CUTS DOWN
ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS 29
MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS WITH 10 MILLIBARS PROGGED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO FROM 12Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW BEING FARTHER EAST...THE DRY SLOW IT FARTHER EAST AND THE FA
IS IN A MUCH BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY. THE GEM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN QUITE
GOOD WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND THIS HAS
ALSO BEEN SEEN IN THE PARALLEL RUN AS WELL. HENCE...IF THE ECMWF
HOLDS...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN STORE.

YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE GFS IS STARTING TO HINT
AT THIS IDEA WHILE THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WE COULD END UP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THESE TWO EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR AND LOWER STRATUS HAS NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MPX
CWA AND IT WILL BE HERE INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME MINOR
VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFR/IFR CONDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED...THOUGH COMPACT
WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY PRECIP THOUGH. OMEGA
PLOTS SHOW LITTLE OMEGA GETTING GENERATED BY THIS WAVE...SO DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR DZ...SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SE THIS TAF PERIOD...HENCE
WHY CONFIDENCE IS SO HIGH IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE.

KMSP...LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE WILL SPEND ANOTHER WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1500
FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE GOING INTO NRN MN
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO GET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DZ GOING EITHER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG









000
FXUS63 KMPX 192154
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE ARE BACK INTO A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
ENDLESS STRATUS THIS WEEKEND AS WAA IN THE 900 TO 700 MB LAYER
RESULTS IN ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR
AS WARM AS THE WARM NOSE WE WERE DEALING WITH A WEEK AGO. THIS
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT...AND PERSISTENT
SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONLY HELP REINFORCE THE MOISTURE AND KEEP
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONLY HOPE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEEING SOME
CLEARING IS SAT AFTERNOON OUT IN WRN MN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CLEARING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MAKES IT. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE STRATUS STAYING.

FOR PRECIP...THERE WILL BE THREE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA
DURING JUST THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE IS OUT OVER NE MN INTO NRN
WI AND HAS BROUGHT THE OCCASIONAL SNOW REPORT TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR
IN WI...BUT THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE LADYSMITH AREA PRETTY QUICK THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE TWO IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN MN PER COOLER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...OMEGA PLOTS SHOW VERY LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION GETTING
INDUCED BY THE WAVE...SO NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE DGZ THAT THE PRIMARY P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AS WE GET A
SEEDER-FEEDER SCENARIO SETTING UP. FOR DRIZZLE...LIFT DOWN IN THE
STRATUS LAYER LOOKS WEAK AS WELL...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIZZLE EITHER. SHORT TERM HI-RES SUPPORT THE LIMITED PRECIP IDEA
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING REALLY GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
GIVEN THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT...KEPT
PRECIP MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH PATCHY FZDZ. THE
THIRD WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WASH/ORE AND WILL BE GETTING NEAR
WRN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH
IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FOG THREAT...THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
LOW AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 20S. WILL LIKELY SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...BUT THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. INSTEAD...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1 AND 3 MILES IN HAZE AND BR TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SRLY WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...FINISHING IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BY SUNSET SATURDAY. BOOSTED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT
AS RESULT...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BASICALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE BEST LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE PTYPE
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. A
LULL IN THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TWIN
CITIES...AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. AREAS
OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THERMAL PROFILE ENDS UP. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. IT IS HERE THAT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY DO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE GFS WOULD BRING A
SURFACE LOW FROM CHICAGO TO THE WESTERN TIP OF UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AS WELL WHICH CUTS DOWN
ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS 29
MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS WITH 10 MILLIBARS PROGGED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO FROM 12Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW BEING FARTHER EAST...THE DRY SLOW IT FARTHER EAST AND THE FA
IS IN A MUCH BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY. THE GEM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN QUITE
GOOD WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND THIS HAS
ALSO BEEN SEEN IN THE PARALLEL RUN AS WELL. HENCE...IF THE ECMWF
HOLDS...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN STORE.

YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY IN THE TWIN CITIES. THE GFS IS STARTING TO HINT
AT THIS IDEA WHILE THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WE COULD END UP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THESE TWO EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR AND LOWER STRATUS HAS NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MPX
CWA AND IT WILL BE HERE INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME MINOR
VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFR/IFR CONDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED...THOUGH COMPACT
WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY PRECIP THOUGH. OMEGA
PLOTS SHOW LITTLE OMEGA GETTING GENERATED BY THIS WAVE...SO DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR DZ...SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SE THIS TAF PERIOD...HENCE
WHY CONFIDENCE IS SO HIGH IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE.

KMSP...LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE WILL SPEND ANOTHER WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1500
FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE GOING INTO NRN MN
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO GET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DZ GOING EITHER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG










000
FXUS63 KDLH 192134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  20  20  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  24  31  26  32 /  20  20  20  30
HYR  22  31  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  32  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON H50 CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
ROTATE A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IRON RANGE
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SOUTH WINDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND ADDED
MOISTURE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF FZDZ THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR THE
VORT MAX/TROUGH AXIS. BASED ON THE REPORTS AND HINTS OF POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF FZDZ FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FZDZ THROUGH SAT MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF GOOD FORCING...NO ACCUM
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS THAT A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND
THE PEAK OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE
NORTHLAND THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS WHICH TAKE THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHLAND WILL HAVE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SSW WINDS ALOFT IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING THERE THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING...BUT KEPT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE PCPN
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS LOW
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES OF PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHLAND AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
STALLED CLIPPER WILL MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN US. THE
SOUTHERN US LOW WILL TAP INTO VERY WARM AND MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF AND LIFT AND MERGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS LARGE AND POTENT COMBINED LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WESTERN
OR CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK. A MORE WESTERN
TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS...WOULD PROVIDE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A MORE
EASTERN TRACK...SUCH AS OVER LAKE HURON PER THE ECMWF AND
GEM...WOULD NOT FAVOR SO MUCH SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. IN EITHER
CASE...THERE COULD BE QUITE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHLAND
AND CENTRAL US. EVEN WITH LIGHT SNOW...THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LAYER IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COLD NW FLOW
COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OVER NW WISCONSIN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR CLOSE ATTENTION ON THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ITS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  31  27  32 /  20  20  20  40
INL  22  29  25  32 /  40  30  30  30
BRD  24  31  26  32 /  20  20  20  30
HYR  22  31  27  34 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  21  32  27  35 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KMPX 191821
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR AND LOWER STRATUS HAS NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MPX
CWA AND IT WILL BE HERE INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME MINOR
VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFR/IFR CONDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED...THOUGH COMPACT
WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY PRECIP THOUGH. OMEGA
PLOTS SHOW LITTLE OMEGA GETTING GENERATED BY THIS WAVE...SO DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR DZ...SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SE THIS TAF PERIOD...HENCE
WHY CONFIDENCE IS SO HIGH IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE.

KMSP...LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE WILL SPEND ANOTHER WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1500
FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE GOING INTO NRN MN
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO GET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DZ GOING EITHER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 191821
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR AND LOWER STRATUS HAS NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE MPX
CWA AND IT WILL BE HERE INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME MINOR
VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFR/IFR CONDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED...THOUGH COMPACT
WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IT WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANY PRECIP THOUGH. OMEGA
PLOTS SHOW LITTLE OMEGA GETTING GENERATED BY THIS WAVE...SO DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR DZ...SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SE THIS TAF PERIOD...HENCE
WHY CONFIDENCE IS SO HIGH IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE.

KMSP...LIKE LAST WEEKEND...WE WILL SPEND ANOTHER WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1500
FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE GOING INTO NRN MN
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO GET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DZ GOING EITHER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO ALL SN LATE. WINDS NW 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS OVC CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED VSBY FROM -SN. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE CIG LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING A TRANSITION
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -SN
WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SO
MOSTLY KEPT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS VERY MINOR THREAT OF -FZDZ THROUGH THIS EVENING...NOT A
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THREAT TO PLACE IN THE FORECASTS. THE PCPN TYPE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN -SN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
923 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
923 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REFRESH WORDING. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY FZDZ WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ICING EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IR SAT SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HEIGHTS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER TWO
STATIONS IN FAR SE MANITOBA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING FZDZ WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  20  20  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  20  20  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191227
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...BUT WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191227
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF OF TIME WHERE CLOUD TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE POINT THAT
ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT THUS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH
CHANCES DWINDLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...BUT WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...BUT WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...BUT WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...BUT WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE 24 PERIOD...BUT WITH OCNL
MFVR CIGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 191120
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME BR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
BAND OF -SN LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN AND
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS WITH -SN MOVING
THROUGH. SHOULD SEE CIGS DROP THIS EVENING TO IFR WITH SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE -SN/-FZDZ. THE BEST CHANCE OF -SN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MN
WITH THE -FZDZ THREAT LIMITED/PATCHY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THIS
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME FORM
OF PCPN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF NEXT TROUGH EXTENSION
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z WITH CRITICAL 1700
FT CIGS BY 16Z OR SO. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/03Z. LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT VSBYS
DOWN TO 4-5SM THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN SOME BR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH -SN OR -FZDZ POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
THAT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. WILL MAINTAIN A SE-S WIND LESS THAN
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH CHC -PL CHANGING TO -SN LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS
BECOMING N-NW LATE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 191120
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME BR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
BAND OF -SN LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN AND
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS WITH -SN MOVING
THROUGH. SHOULD SEE CIGS DROP THIS EVENING TO IFR WITH SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE -SN/-FZDZ. THE BEST CHANCE OF -SN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MN
WITH THE -FZDZ THREAT LIMITED/PATCHY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THIS
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME FORM
OF PCPN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF NEXT TROUGH EXTENSION
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z WITH CRITICAL 1700
FT CIGS BY 16Z OR SO. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/03Z. LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT VSBYS
DOWN TO 4-5SM THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN SOME BR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH -SN OR -FZDZ POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
THAT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. WILL MAINTAIN A SE-S WIND LESS THAN
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH CHC -PL CHANGING TO -SN LATE. WINDS SE 7-10KTS
BECOMING N-NW LATE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
418 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
PVA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION...BUT FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT REDUCING THE
PROBABILITY OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND COMPARING MODEL SOUNDINGS TO OBS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S...STAYING FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE.

SATURDAY THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES DUE TO WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS AROUND
30 WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY WARMING UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE UPPER LOW LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER S/WV TROF TO PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING
MORE FOG AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE ICE
IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP ON SUNDAY THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
LESSEN.

BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH
THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LOWLVL FGEN FROM NRN MN INTO ERN
MN...AHEAD OF INITIAL WAVE. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SRN MN
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN AND WI. A STRONG 160 KT
UPPER JET UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SFC...THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SRN WI TUESDAY...AND THEN OVR
LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED. BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINAL LOW
TRACK THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF ON WEDNESDAY...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  27 /  20  30  30  30
INL  26  21  29  25 /  20  30  20  20
BRD  28  21  30  27 /  20  20  20  20
HYR  27  22  31  26 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  29  20  32  26 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT LIFTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BAND OF SATURATION
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.  COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.  SOME FLURRIES
MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULDNT BE
SIGNIFICANT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE 25 TO 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

INTO TONIGHT...THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NOW...DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND GENERATES A BIT MORE LIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH CWA INTO TONIGHT.  LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES AS
THE TROUGH PASSES. AT THIS MOMENT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...ONE OF THE ONLY DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM.
LITTLE OR NO LIFT BEHIND A TROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT DRIZZLE FROM CONTINUING BEYOND TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF A LOW CEILING TYPE DAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MODEST LIFT AND A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD...BUT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTERSECT THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED AT LENGTH LATELY WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TREKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DIG AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT
OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL
RIDGE AND WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIFT NORTH...EAST OF
THE CENTER INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI. A MIXY SCENARIO SHOULD BECOME
MAINLY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH DRY LAYERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SLEET FROM
TIME TO TIME. DESPITE THE LIKELY POPS...SEVERAL DRY HOURS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT
DURING THOSE 12 HOURS. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...BETWEEN A TENTH
AND FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS EACH PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK
MAINLY SNOW. TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES.

A SECONDARY DIGGING OF THE TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE STRONGER...MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO OUR EAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WE
WILL BE IMPACTED DIRECTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE THE
OTHER DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  13  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  16  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME IFR CIGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 06Z THROUGH 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  13  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  16  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190511
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING IN
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
THRU OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
IF NOT NIL...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AS SUCH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO
TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES
OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD. AM XPCTG CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 1700 THRU EARLY FRI MRNG THEN EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 190055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA
OF -SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME
VERY LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY
AGAIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE
DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE
FROM THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK
IS THE ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL
THURSDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET
INTO INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY
IS MORE TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE
SAT/SAT NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR
NOW...KEPT SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT
NIGHT. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR
PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE
WILL SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
DGZ...ALONG CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN
AREAS...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS
SRN MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY
AS FAR AS MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE
WILL ROUND THE TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970
MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE
THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN
CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850
TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS
IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE
ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO
SPEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM
TONGUE OF AIR UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET
BULB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...PROFILES STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN
TO PUSH THE THREAT FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE
WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE
SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS
TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-END VFR TO SOLID MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AT LEAST THRU MIDDAY TMRW...AS
SE WINDS BRINGS IN LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE DRIFTING THRU. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY THE OCNL FLURRY. ALSO NOT
LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR RANGE DESPITE SOME MOS
GUIDANCE HINTING AS SUCH FOR KAXN-KSTC. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
FROM SE TO S TNGT INTO TMRW...WITH THE WI TAF SITES GOING FROM
LGT/VRBL TO S AS HIGH PRES OVHD SLIDES E.

KMSP...TRICKY START TO THE KMSP TAF AS CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AT OR
ARND THE 1700 THRESHOLD WITH OCNL FLURRIES DRIFTING ACRS. AM XPCTG
CIGS TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 1700 THRU THIS EVE THEN
EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK
INTO MVFR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TMRW. WITH
CEILINGS SO NEAR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF...
SOME FREQUENT AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182310
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF AREA OF VFR CIGS THE
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E FROM 03Z TO 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  12  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  15  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182310
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF AREA OF VFR CIGS THE
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E FROM 03Z TO 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  12  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  15  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182138
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE
MORNING...WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF MAINLY CLEAR AREAS. MUCH OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THESE CLOUDS AS WELL AS
THEY HAVE RECENTLY. WE DO BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING TO MOST TAF
SITES...EITHER WITH A TEMPO GROUP OR PREVAILING CONDITION. WE WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPDATE AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING...WE DO EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  12  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  15  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182138
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST VIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H50 TROUGH/VORT
MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT OVER NW
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ROTATING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE WILL INTRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT FZDZ
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENING TO 6 KFT AND
CLOUDS TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C. HAVE INCLUDED -FZDZ WITH FLURRIES IN
THE SW ZONES...BRAINERD/WALKER AREA...FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

A POWERFUL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS/SOUTHERN BC REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND CARVING OUT A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST EC/GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST MN OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTER THAT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AGAIN. BESIDE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AFFECTING TRAVEL
TRAVEL....ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER
THIS STORM PASSES THROUGH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO LATER DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THE LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OR TWO WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL
WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE
MORNING...WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF MAINLY CLEAR AREAS. MUCH OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THESE CLOUDS AS WELL AS
THEY HAVE RECENTLY. WE DO BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING TO MOST TAF
SITES...EITHER WITH A TEMPO GROUP OR PREVAILING CONDITION. WE WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPDATE AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING...WE DO EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  27  22  29 /  10  10  20  10
INL  12  26  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  15  28  23  30 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  12  28  21  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  29  21  31 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 182109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN EARLY
THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA OF
-SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME VERY
LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY AGAIN
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA OF LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE FROM
THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK IS THE
ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS
THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL THURSDAY...BUT AFTER
THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET INTO
INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY IS MORE
TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE SAT/SAT
NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR NOW...KEPT
SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT NIGHT. THE
REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE WILL HAVE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE WILL
SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE DGZ...ALONG
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS
WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN AREAS...SO CONTINUED
TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN
MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY AS FAR AS
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE WILL ROUND THE
TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970 MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE
COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE
ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850 TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY
THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE
FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO SPEND
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM TONGUE OF AIR
UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET BULB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...PROFILES
STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN TO PUSH THE THREAT
FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE
GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP
ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN
THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE
GET NEXT WEEK. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER THIS MORNING A CLOUD LAYER ARND 1.5 TO 2.5K AGL MOVED
FROM WC WI...INTO EC MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BECAME
ESE/SE THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER HELD NEAR -10C TO
-12C...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION CONTD...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER...LED TO -SN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW...SO THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE AND ONLY AFFECT KRNH/KEAU THRU
THE NEXT 6 HRS. ELSEWHERE...KSTC WILL SEE VFR CONDS BY 21-23Z. AFT
00Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM NE/IA BACK INTO SW
MN AND CAUSE KRWF/KAXN TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR EC MN/WC
WI...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SW/WC
MN AFT 00Z. THIS IS MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...NOT SO MUCH OF WILL
IT OCCUR OR NOT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE/SE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

LAST BATCH OF -SN SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA BY
18-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE W/SW AND ADVECT INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 20-22Z. TIMING REMAINS THE MAY PROBLEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VFR CONDS BY 21Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY COME BACK INTO EC MN FRIDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS THE
MAIN DILEMMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL HOLD FROM THE ESE/SE THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 3-5 KTS THIS AFTN...TO 6-8 KTS
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 182109
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR AROUND 92H HAS LED TO SOME CLEARING OR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN EARLY
THIS AFTN. IN FAR EC MN/WC WI...EARLIER CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER LED TO A PERIOD OF -SN...WHICH BRIEFLY
CAUSED SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. THIS AREA OF
-SN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH/NE AND DISSIPATED...OR BECAME VERY
LIGHT FOR RADAR NOT TO DETECT IT.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME CLOUDY AGAIN
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...A WEAK AREA OF LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF MPX CWA...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION.

THE STRONG INVERSION THAT DEVELOPED LAST WEEK AND LED TO A LONG
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...LOW CIGS AND FOG...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS TEMPS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISE FROM
THE WARMER SW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM REMAIN FZDZ POTENTIAL
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED IN THE PRECIP CHANCE NEXT WEEK IS THE
ISSUE OF P-TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST...MODEL PREFERENCE WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS
THE GEM QUICKLY BECOMES AN OUTLIER ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNTIL THURSDAY...BUT AFTER
THAT...WE ARE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST SHOWS UP SATURDAY AS WE GET INTO
INCREASING SRLY FLOW. ONE THING THAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY IS MORE
TIME SPENT BENEATH A DECK OF STRATUS. STILL QUESTIONABLE SAT/SAT
NIGHT IS IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE DZ. FOR NOW...KEPT
SATURDAY DRY...BUT KEPT THE FZDZ MENTION GOING FOR SAT NIGHT. THE
REASONING HERE IS THAT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WE WILL HAVE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE A LITTLE BURST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW ON IF WE WILL SEE ANY DZ OR PRECIP AT ALL...BUT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DZ.

FOR SUNDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...BUT WE WILL
SEE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SEEING MOISTURE RETURN TO THE DGZ...ALONG
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN DZ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS
WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT IT IS ORIENTED TOWARD ERN AREAS...SO CONTINUED
TO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WRN WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE WITH US MORE OR LESS TO
CHRISTMAS MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. THIS WILL SEND A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN
MN/NRN IA MONDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND CLOSING OFF...SO THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE IT ONLY AS FAR AS
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SRN WAVE WILL ROUND THE
TROUGH...WITH A COASTAL LOW TAKING OVER BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO UNDER 970 MB...BUT IT IS A BIT FARTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER RUNS. OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THE SYSTEM IS IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW GETS SO DEEP...THE
COLD AIR GETS STOPPED UP IN CANADA. WITH THE 17.12 RUNS...THE
ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING 925-850 TEMPS COOLER THAN -12C BY
THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE 18.12 RUNS TEMPS IN THAT SAME LAYER ARE
FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -10C...SO WE ONLY LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK BEING TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO SPEND
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS TO BRING A FAIRLY WARM TONGUE OF AIR
UP IN THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SFC WET BULB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW P-TYPE BEING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
MN AND NW WI. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...PROFILES
STILL LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS SLOW ENOUGH IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN TO PUSH THE THREAT
FOR A RA/SN MIX OUT INTO TUESDAY IN WRN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK...BUT WE
GET THOSE SEVERAL INCHES BECAUSE WE LOOK TO PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW A DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP
ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH THE SUB 970MB LOW STAYING FARTHER EAST IN
THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE LOOKING YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE
GET NEXT WEEK. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS TIMING DURING A BUSY TRAVEL WEEK...STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER THIS MORNING A CLOUD LAYER ARND 1.5 TO 2.5K AGL MOVED
FROM WC WI...INTO EC MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BECAME
ESE/SE THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER HELD NEAR -10C TO
-12C...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION CONTD...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER...LED TO -SN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW...SO THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE AND ONLY AFFECT KRNH/KEAU THRU
THE NEXT 6 HRS. ELSEWHERE...KSTC WILL SEE VFR CONDS BY 21-23Z. AFT
00Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM NE/IA BACK INTO SW
MN AND CAUSE KRWF/KAXN TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE MVFR CIGS FOR EC MN/WC
WI...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SW/WC
MN AFT 00Z. THIS IS MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...NOT SO MUCH OF WILL
IT OCCUR OR NOT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE/SE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

LAST BATCH OF -SN SHOULD MOVE THRU THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA BY
18-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE W/SW AND ADVECT INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 20-22Z. TIMING REMAINS THE MAY PROBLEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VFR CONDS BY 21Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY COME BACK INTO EC MN FRIDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS THE
MAIN DILEMMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING. WINDS WILL HOLD FROM THE ESE/SE THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 3-5 KTS THIS AFTN...TO 6-8 KTS
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY MVFR BY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS SSE 6-8 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS. CHC -FZDZ LATE. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZDZ/-RA/-SN. WINDS SSE 7-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities