Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 221135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 221135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 221058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER IN
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS DELAYED AND
WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

KMSP...VFR. NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



000
FXUS63 KMPX 220904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 220904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 220904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 220859
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 220859
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT 330 AM...IT WAS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND WINDS WERE CALM. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AT KCDD TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND. A FEW LOWER 40S WERE EVEN FOUND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOCAL FOG WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR KPWC AND KAIT.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG THE EXTREME INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION LATER TODAY. THE NAM AND THE 4KM NMM WRF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THEM IF THEY DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH/SW LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF INTO THE CWA...BUT THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF HOLD ANY QPF OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MILD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT PATTERN...BUT IN GENERAL
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO DELAY THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A SOGGY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM DUE TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
TUES/WED/THURS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOOKING
AHEAD...AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A SPRING FROST/FREEZE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  46  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
INL  72  44  77  45 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  72  46  69  50 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  73  43  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  65  43  74  45 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 220531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  69  47  65 /   0  20  30  40
INL  46  75  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  48  67  50  68 /   0  30  30  50
HYR  45  70  47  71 /   0  20  30  40
ASX  45  73  47  69 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 220531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  69  47  65 /   0  20  30  40
INL  46  75  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  48  67  50  68 /   0  30  30  50
HYR  45  70  47  71 /   0  20  30  40
ASX  45  73  47  69 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 220531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  69  47  65 /   0  20  30  40
INL  46  75  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  48  67  50  68 /   0  30  30  50
HYR  45  70  47  71 /   0  20  30  40
ASX  45  73  47  69 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 220531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  69  47  65 /   0  20  30  40
INL  46  75  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  48  67  50  68 /   0  30  30  50
HYR  45  70  47  71 /   0  20  30  40
ASX  45  73  47  69 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 220349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 220349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 220013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER WITH SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6-9 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER WITH SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6-9 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 220013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER WITH SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6-9 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 220013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER WITH SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6-9 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 212341 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARDS TO MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED AT KHYR AND WILL AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  66  46  69 /   0   0   0  20
INL  30  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  38  73  48  67 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  32  71  45  70 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  33  64  45  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 212341 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARDS TO MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED AT KHYR AND WILL AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  66  46  69 /   0   0   0  20
INL  30  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  38  73  48  67 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  32  71  45  70 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  33  64  45  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 212121
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A DRY...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT NOW SITS FROM IOWA OVER TO A SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH SE QUEBEC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. BEING THIS FAR WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...THE ATMO IS TO DRY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN POP A HIGH
BASED CU FIELD OVER WI. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN DEWPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20S/30S...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LARGE
DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 30+ DEGS AT
LOCATIONS THAT RESPOND WELL TO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORED LOWS TOWARD A PRETTY EVEN BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...
WHICH RESULTED IN THE FORECAST READING A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY...ESPECIALLY  NORTH OF I-94.

THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING
EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL
ALLOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS WELL...WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN
HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL
BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WAY TO START THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER THAT WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE 21.12/18Z NAM ALSO
GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS PUSHED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE LONG
WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TAKES A NOTABLE JUMP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR MID MAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...THE COMBINATION OF PWATS NEAR 1.75"...TALL SKINNY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG...A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER CLOSE TO 12KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORMS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
BE TOO CONCERNED. THE 21.12Z GFS DOES HAVE DECENT OVERLAP IN THE
CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SO...THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE IOWA UNLESS THE MASS FIELDS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TO SUMMARIZE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY IS SHAKY AND DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE WHOLE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP EVENTS STILL NEEDS REFINEMENT...THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN STRENGTH AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 18Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EAU
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH 1Z /NEAR SUNSET/
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S-SE FRI MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER TO MICH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINING VFR AND DRY.

KMSP...MINIMAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT TAF EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDS. WINDS S
      5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KDLH 212025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A DRY COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  66  46  69 /   0   0   0  20
INL  30  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  38  73  48  67 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  32  71  45  70 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  33  64  45  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






000
FXUS63 KDLH 212025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A DRY COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  66  46  69 /   0   0   0  20
INL  30  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  38  73  48  67 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  32  71  45  70 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  33  64  45  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KMPX 211809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN STRENGTH AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 18Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EAU
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH 1Z /NEAR SUNSET/
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S-SE FRI MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER TO MICH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINING VFR AND DRY.

KMSP...MINIMAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT TAF EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDS. WINDS S
      5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KMPX 211809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN STRENGTH AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 18Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EAU
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH 1Z /NEAR SUNSET/
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S-SE FRI MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER TO MICH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINING VFR AND DRY.

KMSP...MINIMAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT TAF EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDS. WINDS S
      5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 211809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN STRENGTH AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 18Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EAU
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH 1Z /NEAR SUNSET/
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S-SE FRI MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER TO MICH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINING VFR AND DRY.

KMSP...MINIMAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT TAF EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDS. WINDS S
      5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KMPX 211809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN STRENGTH AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 18Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EAU
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH 1Z /NEAR SUNSET/
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S-SE FRI MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER TO MICH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINING VFR AND DRY.

KMSP...MINIMAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT TAF EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDS. WINDS S
      5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 211728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINING CLOUDS OVER PRICE COUNTY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING SHORTLY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A DRY COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  65  31  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  68  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  66  31  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINING CLOUDS OVER PRICE COUNTY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING SHORTLY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A DRY COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  65  31  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  68  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  66  31  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






000
FXUS63 KDLH 211431
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
931 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINING CLOUDS OVER PRICE COUNTY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING SHORTLY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...JUST PASSING THROUGH HYR
EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT DLH WHERE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD ON-SHORE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  65  31  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  68  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  66  31  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 211431
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
931 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINING CLOUDS OVER PRICE COUNTY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING SHORTLY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...JUST PASSING THROUGH HYR
EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT DLH WHERE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD ON-SHORE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  65  31  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  68  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  66  31  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211126
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...JUST PASSING THROUGH HYR
EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT DLH WHERE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD ON-SHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  64  31  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  67  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  63  31  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KMPX 211039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
SW-WEST TO THE W-NW THIS MORNING/AFTN. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18-22 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC/SW/SC MN.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE WEST
BY 14-15Z...THEN NW-NNW BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. A FEW GUSTS OF
16-18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING ESE-SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT



000
FXUS63 KMPX 211039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
SW-WEST TO THE W-NW THIS MORNING/AFTN. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18-22 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC/SW/SC MN.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE WEST
BY 14-15Z...THEN NW-NNW BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. A FEW GUSTS OF
16-18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING ESE-SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 210831
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
331 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE DAKOTAS...COMPLIMENTED BY BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 6000
FT...PROMOTING FALLING DEW POINTS/RH VALUES. HAVE LOWERED THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST....BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FROM THE IRON EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION WHICH MAY MISS OUT ON
SOME OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
UP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE SO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN GENERAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  36  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
INL  64  35  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  67  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  35  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  63  32  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 210809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS (AOA 060) WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY NEAR 8 KNOTS
IN THE MORNING AND THEN NW 12G18KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AOA 060. WIND CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO APPLY TO KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 210809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS (AOA 060) WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY NEAR 8 KNOTS
IN THE MORNING AND THEN NW 12G18KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AOA 060. WIND CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO APPLY TO KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 210606 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  33  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  70  47  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  35  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210606 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  33  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  70  47  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  35  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210606 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  33  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  70  47  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  35  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210606 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  33  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  70  47  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  35  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210606 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  33  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  70  47  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  35  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






000
FXUS63 KMPX 210345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS (AOA 060) WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY NEAR 8 KNOTS
IN THE MORNING AND THEN NW 12G18KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AOA 060. WIND CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO APPLY TO KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 210345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A DRY COLD FRONT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS (AOA 060) WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY NEAR 8 KNOTS
IN THE MORNING AND THEN NW 12G18KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AOA 060. WIND CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO APPLY TO KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






000
FXUS63 KMPX 210005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A LITTLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LIGHT W-SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW AT 12G20KTS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

KMSP...MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON 300-320 DEGREES AT 12G18 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 210005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A LITTLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LIGHT W-SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW AT 12G20KTS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

KMSP...MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON 300-320 DEGREES AT 12G18 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 210005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A LITTLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LIGHT W-SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW AT 12G20KTS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

KMSP...MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON 300-320 DEGREES AT 12G18 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 210005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A LITTLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LIGHT W-SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW AT 12G20KTS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

KMSP...MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON 300-320 DEGREES AT 12G18 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S-SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 202121
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 202121
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 202121
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU DECK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY...THERE HAS
BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR WITH TIME AND GIVEN THE DRY/COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE MAINLY FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME
30S IN WESTERN WI...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING TEMPS
BECAUSE IF THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH
FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A DECENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO JETTISON OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH LOOK
TO HANG BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. EVEN SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
OFF THE 20.00Z/12Z RUNS...A SLOWER TREND FROM ITS RUNS ON THE
19TH. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PAST 4 CYCLES AND SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS JUST CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH
SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF /EVEN WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES/ SUGGEST LOCATIONS TO
OUR SOUTH SUCH HAS NE/KS/IA/MO HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN IF YOU BUY INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...THE WARM FRONT DOESN`T MAKE ALL THAT FAR NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE 96-108HR GFS FORECAST OF THE MASS AND
MOMENTUM FIELDS SUGGEST NE/IA ARE IN MUCH BETTER POSITION TO GET
VIGOROUS CONVECTION PER THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE. THE
20.12Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELDS THIS
WEEKEND AND IS THUS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVEN IN
LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CARRIES CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
A COUPLE SLOW MOVING TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AFTER
THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER CONUS AS A SERIES OF WAVES - DEFINITELY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 202049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






000
FXUS63 KDLH 202049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KMPX 201815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD MAY BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE SOME SPRINKLES OR -SHRA AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN OBS ACROSS NW IOWA ARE NOT REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE RADAR RETURNS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC NEAR THE IA BORDER THRU 18Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AFTN TEMPS REFLECT THIS WITH
HIGHER TEMPS IN CENTRAL MN WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE COMMON...TO
THE 50S ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. NO CHANGES TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THU-FRI...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SERN CANADA UPR LVL LOW. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE
UPR LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW H5
HEIGHTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALLOWING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE DURG THIS TIME...THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE SLIGHTLY DURG THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE WARMING TREND GOING
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPR 60S TO THE LWR 70S...THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLC COAST AND THE UPR LVL LOW OVER ERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE
ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL HIGH PRES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE SURGE
OF MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR FROM THE GOMEX TO SLIDE NWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...AS UPR LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL THAN ZONAL...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NNE WITHIN THE MEAN UPR LVL FLOW WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK CAPPING PLUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING NE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAMES. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
BETTER TIMING THAN THE 12-HOURLY BLOCKS AT THIS POINT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN DOES LOOK TO BRING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER
STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WANE MON INTO TUE AS THE UPR LVL
TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS OFF TO THE NE...LEAVING LITTLE SFC
FORCING IN PLACE AND A MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NO EVIDENT SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION PROGGED
IN ANY OF THE LONG-TERM MODELS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD MAY BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE SOME SPRINKLES OR -SHRA AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN OBS ACROSS NW IOWA ARE NOT REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE RADAR RETURNS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC NEAR THE IA BORDER THRU 18Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AFTN TEMPS REFLECT THIS WITH
HIGHER TEMPS IN CENTRAL MN WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE COMMON...TO
THE 50S ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. NO CHANGES TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THU-FRI...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SERN CANADA UPR LVL LOW. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE
UPR LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW H5
HEIGHTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALLOWING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE DURG THIS TIME...THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE SLIGHTLY DURG THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE WARMING TREND GOING
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPR 60S TO THE LWR 70S...THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLC COAST AND THE UPR LVL LOW OVER ERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE
ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL HIGH PRES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE SURGE
OF MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR FROM THE GOMEX TO SLIDE NWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...AS UPR LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL THAN ZONAL...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NNE WITHIN THE MEAN UPR LVL FLOW WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK CAPPING PLUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING NE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAMES. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
BETTER TIMING THAN THE 12-HOURLY BLOCKS AT THIS POINT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN DOES LOOK TO BRING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER
STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WANE MON INTO TUE AS THE UPR LVL
TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS OFF TO THE NE...LEAVING LITTLE SFC
FORCING IN PLACE AND A MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NO EVIDENT SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION PROGGED
IN ANY OF THE LONG-TERM MODELS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD MAY BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE SOME SPRINKLES OR -SHRA AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN OBS ACROSS NW IOWA ARE NOT REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE RADAR RETURNS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC NEAR THE IA BORDER THRU 18Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AFTN TEMPS REFLECT THIS WITH
HIGHER TEMPS IN CENTRAL MN WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE COMMON...TO
THE 50S ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. NO CHANGES TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THU-FRI...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SERN CANADA UPR LVL LOW. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE
UPR LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW H5
HEIGHTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALLOWING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE DURG THIS TIME...THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE SLIGHTLY DURG THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE WARMING TREND GOING
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPR 60S TO THE LWR 70S...THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLC COAST AND THE UPR LVL LOW OVER ERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE
ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL HIGH PRES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE SURGE
OF MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR FROM THE GOMEX TO SLIDE NWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...AS UPR LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL THAN ZONAL...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NNE WITHIN THE MEAN UPR LVL FLOW WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK CAPPING PLUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING NE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAMES. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
BETTER TIMING THAN THE 12-HOURLY BLOCKS AT THIS POINT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN DOES LOOK TO BRING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER
STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WANE MON INTO TUE AS THE UPR LVL
TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS OFF TO THE NE...LEAVING LITTLE SFC
FORCING IN PLACE AND A MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NO EVIDENT SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION PROGGED
IN ANY OF THE LONG-TERM MODELS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 201815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD MAY BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE SOME SPRINKLES OR -SHRA AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN OBS ACROSS NW IOWA ARE NOT REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE RADAR RETURNS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC NEAR THE IA BORDER THRU 18Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AFTN TEMPS REFLECT THIS WITH
HIGHER TEMPS IN CENTRAL MN WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE COMMON...TO
THE 50S ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. NO CHANGES TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THU-FRI...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SERN CANADA UPR LVL LOW. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE
UPR LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE E WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW H5
HEIGHTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALLOWING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE DURG THIS TIME...THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE SLIGHTLY DURG THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE WARMING TREND GOING
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPR 60S TO THE LWR 70S...THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLC COAST AND THE UPR LVL LOW OVER ERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE
ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL HIGH PRES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE SURGE
OF MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR FROM THE GOMEX TO SLIDE NWD INTO THE
N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...AS UPR LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL THAN ZONAL...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NNE WITHIN THE MEAN UPR LVL FLOW WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK CAPPING PLUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW PRES
CENTER OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING NE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAMES. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
BETTER TIMING THAN THE 12-HOURLY BLOCKS AT THIS POINT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN DOES LOOK TO BRING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER
STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WANE MON INTO TUE AS THE UPR LVL
TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS OFF TO THE NE...LEAVING LITTLE SFC
FORCING IN PLACE AND A MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NO EVIDENT SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION PROGGED
IN ANY OF THE LONG-TERM MODELS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND MINIMAL AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PINNING
DOWN A WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT W-NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE BECOMING S/SE AT 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 201740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 201730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 201730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities