000
FXUS63 KMPX 240548
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

23.12Z RAOBS SHOW GOOD 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. FRONTAL SLOPE OVER
THE STATE IS SOMETHING THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR UPCOMING
FORECAST AND HOW FAR IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST. AT 12Z KINL-KABR HAD A 7C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 850MB /12C AT 925MB/. A MASSIVE DRYING
ACROSS MN OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES
PLUMMETING FROM 0.90 TO 0.32 INCHES...OR 136 TO 48 PERCENT NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS GAVE WAY TO A
SUNNY BUT COOL DAY TODAY. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS
ANCHORED IN THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTH...WHILE A DEEPER CYCLONE HAS NOW
SHIFTED ONSHORE INTO THE NWRN U.S. NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE
CIRCULATING AROUND THAT LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS QUITE STRONG OVER
NEVADA WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO NEAR
500MB...ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A MEASURED 100KT 250MB JET CORE
NOSE. THIS IS DRIVING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MT/ID/UT. SURFACE DEW
POINTS OF MEANING FOR CONVECTION ARE LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA...SOON TO
RETURN NORTHWARD.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR CALMING WINDS TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
WIDESPREAD FROST SHOULD OCCUR WITH LOWER 30S FORECAST ACROSS NWRN
WI. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS OVER NWRN WI COUNTIES CURRENTLY...HAVE
DECIDED TO JUST ADD ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES INTO THE FROST ADVISORY.

BIG PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD IS FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE IN
THE FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND A RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NEB/SD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 850-925MB...SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED SWWRD...FROM KABR-KMLI. THE CONSENSUS NCEP MODELS AT
23.12Z REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB FRIDAY EVENING AND
SHIFTING EAST INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. THE 23.00Z ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS DO AS WELL...HOWEVER THEY REMAIN FURTHER WEST.

THE 300/305K SURFACE IN THE NCEP SOLUTIONS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
AN 8G/KG MOISTURE SURGE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING AND CONVERGING INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN MN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT WITH A FETCH OF ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE FEEDING IT. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE. NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER THERE IS ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE RA/TSRA SWWRD OF MSP. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST MORE OF A FOCUS IN SRN/SWRN MN. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST DOES THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST DOES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE
VERIFICATION RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER THAT IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH SHRA/ISO TSRA.

THIS QUESTION REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY...HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
FRONTAL BAND BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUDS...AND HIGHS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN OUTSIDE
THE BAND. OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN/SRN
FORECAST AREA AND TRIED TO REMAIN NEARLY DRY IN THE EAST. SEEMS
LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE MOST
POSSIBLE IN SWRN MN CLOSER TO THE CAPE POOL...AND MONDAY LOOKS
MOST FAVORABLE SHOULD THE INSTABILITY INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES TOWARD MN. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THAT FRONT THIS WEEKEND
MAY HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH HOW THE ENVIRONMENT/FRONT EVOLVES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE/LL UNFORTUNATELY NEED TO KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS IN THE AREA... WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION WORK TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DRY PERIODS...
WITH PCPN FOCUSED WHEN INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW... BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
TRY AND PIN POINT WHEN SUCH DRY PERIODS MIGHT OCCUR. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME AROUND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THINGS MORE
ACTIVE IN OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD... ALTHOUGH BOTH
SUGGEST WE SHOULD FINALLY BRING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST TOWARD THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW THAT UNFOLDS... WE
COULD HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR FOCUSED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BUT... UNTIL
THAT POINT THE MAIN ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. IN GENERAL... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE BONAFIDE WARM SECTOR SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WI TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GOING THROUGH THE
DAY...WILL START TO SEE AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. BASED ON MPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT...AIRMASS OVER THE
MPX AIRSPACE IS VERY DRY...WHICH SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIP. DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY VCSH UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT QUICKLY
SPREAD IT EAST ACROSS MN AS THE LLJ BEGINS NOSING INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...KEPT CONDS VFR AS IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
PRECIPITOUSLY ACROSS MN. FOR WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING
OVER TOWARD MICH OVER THE DAY...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AS A
RESULT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST...WEAKEST EAST. BASED ON
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT SOME STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH MINIMAL
GUSTING. A 16G21KT TYPE DAY LOOKS TO AHEAD FOR WRN MN.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE HIGH IN TAF PARAMETERS UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE
TAF. AT THIS POINT...KEPT ONLY A VCSH MENTION...THOUGH AT SOME
POINT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...DO EXPECT THERE TO BE A PERIOD OF
SHRA/ISO TSRA. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. AS
FOR CIGS...KEPT THEM VFR...THOUGH CHANCE FOR MVFR...INCLUDING SUB
017 CIGS INCREASES AFTER 8Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ045-052-053-
     063.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT/ARX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG

000
FXUS63 KDLH 240536 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL HELP TURN WINDS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

WAA AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CAUSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
KINL/KBRD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
MOST AREAS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE. WILL HAVE AREAS OF
FROST ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES AND LOW POPS IN SRN CASS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE WEST DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. THE
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
WARM FRONTS LIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND WARM
FRONT INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CLEAR IDEA ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS SECOND WARM FRONT MAY BE THE
MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK FOR THE NORTHLAND AT SEEING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  43  58  41 /  10  30  20  10
INL  70  44  64  43 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  69  49  61  48 /  50  60  40  20
HYR  66  43  63  43 /  10  30  20  10
ASX  57  41  61  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 232338
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
MOST AREAS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE. WILL HAVE AREAS OF
FROST ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES AND LOW POPS IN SRN CASS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE WEST DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. THE
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
WARM FRONTS LIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND WARM
FRONT INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CLEAR IDEA ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS SECOND WARM FRONT MAY BE THE
MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK FOR THE NORTHLAND AT SEEING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  63  43  58 /   0  10  30  20
INL  31  70  44  64 /   0  10  30  20
BRD  35  69  49  61 /   0  50  60  40
HYR  23  66  43  63 /   0  10  30  20
ASX  31  57  41  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE

000
FXUS63 KMPX 232223
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

23.12Z RAOBS SHOW GOOD 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. FRONTAL SLOPE OVER
THE STATE IS SOMETHING THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR UPCOMING
FORECAST AND HOW FAR IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST. AT 12Z KINL-KABR HAD A 7C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 850MB /12C AT 925MB/. A MASSIVE DRYING
ACROSS MN OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES
PLUMMETING FROM 0.90 TO 0.32 INCHES...OR 136 TO 48 PERCENT NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS GAVE WAY TO A
SUNNY BUT COOL DAY TODAY. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS
ANCHORED IN THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTH...WHILE A DEEPER CYCLONE HAS NOW
SHIFTED ONSHORE INTO THE NWRN U.S. NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE
CIRCULATING AROUND THAT LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS QUITE STRONG OVER
NEVADA WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO NEAR
500MB...ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A MEASURED 100KT 250MB JET CORE
NOSE. THIS IS DRIVING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MT/ID/UT. SURFACE DEW
POINTS OF MEANING FOR CONVECTION ARE LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA...SOON TO
RETURN NORTHWARD.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR CALMING WINDS TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
WIDESPREAD FROST SHOULD OCCUR WITH LOWER 30S FORECAST ACROSS NWRN
WI. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS OVER NWRN WI COUNTIES CURRENTLY...HAVE
DECIDED TO JUST ADD ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES INTO THE FROST ADVISORY.

BIG PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD IS FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE IN
THE FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND A RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NEB/SD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 850-925MB...SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED SWWRD...FROM KABR-KMLI. THE CONSENSUS NCEP MODELS AT
23.12Z REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB FRIDAY EVENING AND
SHIFTING EAST INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. THE 23.00Z ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS DO AS WELL...HOWEVER THEY REMAIN FURTHER WEST.

THE 300/305K SURFACE IN THE NCEP SOLUTIONS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
AN 8G/KG MOISTURE SURGE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING AND CONVERGING INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN MN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT WITH A FETCH OF ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE FEEDING IT. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE. NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER THERE IS ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE RA/TSRA SWWRD OF MSP. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST MORE OF A FOCUS IN SRN/SWRN MN. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST DOES THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST DOES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE
VERIFICATION RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER THAT IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH SHRA/ISO TSRA.

THIS QUESTION REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY...HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
FRONTAL BAND BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUDS...AND HIGHS QUITE A BIT COOLER THANOUTSIDE
THE BAND. OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN/SRN
FORECAST AREA AND TRIED TO REMAIN NEARLY DRY IN THE EAST. SEEMS
LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE MOST
POSSIBLE IN SWRN MN CLOSER TO THE CAPE POOL...AND MONDAY LOOKS
MOST FAVORABLE SHOULD THE INSTABILITY INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES TOWARD MN. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THAT FRONT THIS WEEKEND
MAY HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH HOW THE ENVIRONMENT/FRONT EVOLVES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE/LL UNFORTUNATELY NEED TO KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS IN THE AREA... WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION WORK TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DRY PERIODS...
WITH PCPN FOCUSED WHEN INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW... BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
TRY AND PIN POINT WHEN SUCH DRY PERIODS MIGHT OCCUR. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME AROUND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THINGS MORE
ACTIVE IN OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD... ALTHOUGH BOTH
SUGGEST WE SHOULD FINALLY BRING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST TOWARD THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW THAT UNFOLDS... WE
COULD HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR FOCUSED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BUT... UNTIL
THAT POINT THE MAIN ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. IN GENERAL... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE BONAFIDE WARM SECTOR SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR DURING THE PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHRA LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN SITES.
INTRODUCED VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING ON FRIDAY. GUSTY AT MN SITES BY
MIDDAY.

KMSP...

VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVES IN LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
A BIT GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ045-052-053-063.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT/ARX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 232008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE
DOMINAATES THE WEATHER. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE. WILL HAVE AREAS OF
FROST ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT APPOACHES AND LOW POPS IN SRN CASS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE WEST DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. THE
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
WARM FRONTS LIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND WARM
FRONT INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CLEAR IDEA ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS SECOND WARM FRONT MAY BE THE
MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK FOR THE NORTHLAND AT SEEING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  34  63  43 /   0   0  10  30
INL  61  31  70  44 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  64  35  69  49 /   0   0  50  60
HYR  60  23  66  43 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  52  31  57  41 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KMPX 231946
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

23.12Z RAOBS SHOW GOOD 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. FRONTAL SLOPE OVER
THE STATE IS SOMETHING THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR UPCOMING
FORECAST AND HOW FAR IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST. AT 12Z KINL-KABR HAD A 7C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 850MB /12C AT 925MB/. A MASSIVE DRYING
ACROSS MN OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES
PLUMMETING FROM 0.90 TO 0.32 INCHES...OR 136 TO 48 PERCENT NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS GAVE WAY TO A
SUNNY BUT COOL DAY TODAY. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS
ANCHORED IN THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTH...WHILE A DEEPER CYCLONE HAS NOW
SHIFTED ONSHORE INTO THE NWRN U.S. NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE
CIRCULATING AROUND THAT LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS QUITE STRONG OVER
NEVADA WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO NEAR
500MB...ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A MEASURED 100KT 250MB JET CORE
NOSE. THIS IS DRIVING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MT/ID/UT. SURFACE DEW
POINTS OF MEANING FOR CONVECTION ARE LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA...SOON TO
RETURN NORTHWARD.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR CALMING WINDS TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
WIDESPREAD FROST SHOULD OCCUR WITH LOWER 30S FORECAST ACROSS NWRN
WI. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS OVER NWRN WI COUNTIES CURRENTLY...HAVE
DECIDED TO JUST ADD ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES INTO THE FROST ADVISORY.

BIG PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD IS FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE IN
THE FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND A RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NEB/SD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 850-925MB...SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED SWWRD...FROM KABR-KMLI. THE CONSENSUS NCEP MODELS AT
23.12Z REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB FRIDAY EVENING AND
SHIFTING EAST INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. THE 23.00Z ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS DO AS WELL...HOWEVER THEY REMAIN FURTHER WEST.

THE 300/305K SURFACE IN THE NCEP SOLUTIONS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
AN 8G/KG MOISTURE SURGE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING AND CONVERGING INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN MN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT WITH A FETCH OF ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE FEEDING IT. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE. NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER THERE IS ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE RA/TSRA SWWRD OF MSP. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST MORE OF A FOCUS IN SRN/SWRN MN. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST DOES THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST DOES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE
VERIFICATION RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER THAT IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH SHRA/ISO TSRA.

THIS QUESTION REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY...HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
FRONTAL BAND BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUDS...AND HIGHS QUITE A BIT COOLER THANOUTSIDE
THE BAND. OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN/SRN
FORECAST AREA AND TRIED TO REMAIN NEARLY DRY IN THE EAST. SEEMS
LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE MOST
POSSIBLE IN SWRN MN CLOSER TO THE CAPE POOL...AND MONDAY LOOKS
MOST FAVORABLE SHOULD THE INSTABILITY INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES TOWARD MN. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THAT FRONT THIS WEEKEND
MAY HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH HOW THE ENVIRONMENT/FRONT EVOLVES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE/LL UNFORTUNATELY NEED TO KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS IN THE AREA... WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION WORK TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME DRY PERIODS...
WITH PCPN FOCUSED WHEN INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW... BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
TRY AND PIN POINT WHEN SUCH DRY PERIODS MIGHT OCCUR. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME AROUND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THINGS MORE
ACTIVE IN OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD... ALTHOUGH BOTH
SUGGEST WE SHOULD FINALLY BRING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST TOWARD THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW THAT UNFOLDS... WE
COULD HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR FOCUSED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BUT... UNTIL
THAT POINT THE MAIN ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. IN GENERAL... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE BONAFIDE WARM SECTOR SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR.
LARGEST 3 HOURLY PRESSURE CLIMBS ARE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
SO GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING GUSTS TO CALM DOWN AND WITH RIDGE AXIS
SPREADING THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL MATERIALIZE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS WELL.

KMSP...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE AND SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ045-052-053-063.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT/ARX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION....SHEA/ARX

000
FXUS63 KMPX 231906
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
206 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

23.12Z RAOBS SHOW GOOD 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. FRONTAL SLOPE OVER
THE STATE IS SOMETHING THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR UPCOMING
FORECAST AND HOW FAR IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST. AT 12Z KINL-KABR HAD A 7C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 850MB /12C AT 925MB/. A MASSIVE DRYING
ACROSS MN OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES
PLUMMETING FROM 0.90 TO 0.32 INCHES...OR 136 TO 48 PERCENT NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS GAVE WAY TO A
SUNNY BUT COOL DAY TODAY. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS
ANCHORED IN THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTH...WHILE A DEEPER CYCLONE HAS NOW
SHIFTED ONSHORE INTO THE NWRN U.S. NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE
CIRCULATING AROUND THAT LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS QUITE STRONG OVER
NEVADA WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO NEAR
500MB...ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A MEASURED 100KT 250MB JET CORE
NOSE. THIS IS DRIVING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MT/ID/UT. SURFACE DEW
POINTS OF MEANING FOR CONVECTION ARE LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA...SOON TO
RETURN NORTHWARD.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR CALMING WINDS TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
WIDESPREAD FROST SHOULD OCCUR WITH LOWER 30S FORECAST ACROSS NWRN
WI. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS OVER NWRN WI COUNTIES CURRENTLY...HAVE
DECIDED TO JUST ADD ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES INTO THE FROST ADVISORY.

BIG PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD IS FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE IN
THE FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND A RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO NEB/SD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 850-925MB...SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED SWWRD...FROM KABR-KMLI. THE CONSENSUS NCEP MODELS AT
23.12Z REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB FRIDAY EVENING AND
SHIFTING EAST INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. THE 23.00Z ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS DO AS WELL...HOWEVER THEY REMAIN FURTHER WEST.

THE 300/305K SURFACE IN THE NCEP SOLUTIONS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
AN 8G/KG MOISTURE SURGE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING AND CONVERGING INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN MN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT WITH A FETCH OF ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE FEEDING IT. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGRESSIVE. NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER THERE IS ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE RA/TSRA SWWRD OF MSP. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST MORE OF A FOCUS IN SRN/SWRN MN. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST DOES THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST DOES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE
VERIFICATION RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER THAT IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH SHRA/ISO TSRA.

THIS QUESTION REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY...HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
FRONTAL BAND BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUDS...AND HIGHS QUITE A BIT COOLER THANOUTSIDE
THE BAND. OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN/SRN
FORECAST AREA AND TRIED TO REMAIN NEARLY DRY IN THE EAST. SEEMS
LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE MOST
POSSIBLE IN SWRN MN CLOSER TO THE CAPE POOL...AND MONDAY LOOKS
MOST FAVORABLE SHOULD THE INSTABILITY INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES TOWARD MN. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THAT FRONT THIS WEEKEND
MAY HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH HOW THE ENVIRONMENT/FRONT EVOLVES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINTING TO THE HIGHEST QPF STAYING SOUTH OF MN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE NAM AND SREF TAKING ON MORE OF WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING
FOR 3 DAYS NOW...AND THAT IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
VERY EVIDENT LOOKING AT THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SPACED 24 HOURS
APART. DEEPER UPPER LOWS ALONG BOTH COAST WITH MORE RIDGING IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TIME...THIS BUILDS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK WEST ACROSS THE FA ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. USING THE ECMWF OUTRIGHT WOULD PLACE DRY WEATHER
OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN MN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN HOWEVER ARE THE GFS AND
GEM. BOTH ARE ADAMANT ON DRIVING WAVE AFTER WAVE ALOFT THROUGH THE
REGION BOTH DAYS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MODEL RUN QPF IS IN THE
SEVERAL INCH RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MN CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE ECMWF ONLY HAS A TENTH TO A HALF INCH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA RESPECTIVELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HENCE...THE WEEKEND/HOLIDAY MAY TURN OUT BETTER THAN THE
FORECAST INDICATES IF THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT. POPS ARE MORE
ALIGNED NOW WITH VERY LOW CHANCES IN WI WITH HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF US. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON
OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
INTO OUT AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUR THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR.
LARGEST 3 HOURLY PRESSURE CLIMBS ARE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
SO GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING GUSTS TO CALM DOWN AND WITH RIDGE AXIS
SPREADING THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL MATERIALIZE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS WELL.

KMSP...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE AND SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT/ARX
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION....SHEA/ARX

000
FXUS63 KMPX 231743
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NWS LA CROSSE
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE QUITE SOME TIME WE CAN SEE
MOONLIGHT OUTSIDE OUR BACK DOOR THIS MORNING HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE
IN CHANHASSEN. THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT 6-7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WE ARE GAINING ABOUT 1
MB PER HOUR AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN
THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM...ONE OF THE
BIGGER CHALLENGES TODAY IS TO DETERMINE JUST HOW DRY THE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
CERTAIN AID IN PROVIDING EXTRA BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
NONETHELESS...MIXING DOWN THE AIR BETWEEN 900-800 MB GIVES US A VERY
DRY AFTERNOON. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SUGGESTS WE CAN
MIX AS HIGH AS 830 MB...WHILE THE RAP...SREF...AND GFS MIX TO 850
MB...870 MB...AND 875 MB RESPECTIVELY. THERE SHOULD BE VIRTUALLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES TODAY.

THE COOL AND DRY DAY TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWER 40S
WEST AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. THE TWIN CITIES METRO SHOULD ALSO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S
TONIGHT. WE KEPT THE MENTION OF FROST IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI. IN FACT...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN
PORTIONS OF WI TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINTING TO THE HIGHEST QPF STAYING SOUTH OF MN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE NAM AND SREF TAKING ON MORE OF WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING
FOR 3 DAYS NOW...AND THAT IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
VERY EVIDENT LOOKING AT THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SPACED 24 HOURS
APART. DEEPER UPPER LOWS ALONG BOTH COAST WITH MORE RIDGING IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TIME...THIS BUILDS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK WEST ACROSS THE FA ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. USING THE ECMWF OUTRIGHT WOULD PLACE DRY WEATHER
OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN MN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN HOWEVER ARE THE GFS AND
GEM. BOTH ARE ADAMANT ON DRIVING WAVE AFTER WAVE ALOFT THROUGH THE
REGION BOTH DAYS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MODEL RUN QPF IS IN THE
SEVERAL INCH RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MN CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE ECMWF ONLY HAS A TENTH TO A HALF INCH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA RESPECTIVELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HENCE...THE WEEKEND/HOLIDAY MAY TURN OUT BETTER THAN THE
FORECAST INDICATES IF THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT. POPS ARE MORE
ALIGNED NOW WITH VERY LOW CHANCES IN WI WITH HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF US. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON
OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
INTO OUT AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUR THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR.
LARGEST 3 HOURLY PRESSURE CLIMBS ARE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
SO GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING GUSTS TO CALM DOWN AND WITH RIDGE AXIS
SPREADING THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL MATERIALIZE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS WELL.

KMSP...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE AND SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION....SHEA/ARX

000
FXUS63 KDLH 231711
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD CLOUDS AT THE WI/MI BORDER DUE TO CLOUDS
STREAMING OFF THE LAKE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
FA FROM CANADA. A CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH A NE WIND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVER THE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WITH A COOL TEMP PROFILE AND THE
CLEAR SKY...HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE A MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE ENTIRE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME TO SET
UP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WEST COAST TROF.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION THREATS...GIVEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THINK
THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY HIT A WALL AS IT TRIES TO
SPREAD TOO FAR EAST INTO THE CWA. THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA BUT THE SW TO WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONFINE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SPREAD THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO COVER THE SW 2/3 OF
THE CWA. THE DRY AIR WILL THEN BATTLE BACK BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS PATTERN
BUT THINK IT IS BEST TO GO WITH A BIT DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE PERIODIC SURGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ABOVE THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY START OUT IN THE 60S BUT MODERATE TO
THE 70S AS THE EXTENDED PROGRESSES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  63  43  58 /   0   0  10  20
INL  31  70  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  35  69  49  61 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  23  66  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  31  57  41  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KDLH 231544
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1044 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD CLOUDS AT THE WI/MI FORDER DUE TO CLOUDS
STREAMING OFF THE LAKE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
FA FROM CANADA. A CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH A NE WIND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVER THE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WITH A COOL TEMP PROFILE AND THE
CLEAR SKY...HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE A MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE ENTIRE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME TO SET
UP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WEST COAST TROF.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION THREATS...GIVEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THINK
THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY HIT A WALL AS IT TRIES TO
SPREAD TOO FAR EAST INTO THE CWA. THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA BUT THE SW TO WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONFINE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SPREAD THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO COVER THE SW 2/3 OF
THE CWA. THE DRY AIR WILL THEN BATTLE BACK BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS PATTERN
BUT THINK IT IS BEST TO GO WITH A BIT DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE PERIODIC SURGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ABOVE THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY START OUT IN THE 60S BUT MODERATE TO
THE 70S AS THE EXTENDED PROGRESSES.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE INCLUDED IN THE
KHYR TAF.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  34  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  31  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  62  35  69  49 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  60  23  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  52  31  57  41 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KDLH 231156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
FA FROM CANADA. A CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH A NE WIND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVER THE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WITH A COOL TEMP PROFILE AND THE
CLEAR SKY...HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE A MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE ENTIRE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME TO SET
UP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WEST COAST TROF.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION THREATS...GIVEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THINK
THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY HIT A WALL AS IT TRIES TO
SPREAD TOO FAR EAST INTO THE CWA. THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA BUT THE SW TO WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONFINE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SPREAD THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO COVER THE SW 2/3 OF
THE CWA. THE DRY AIR WILL THEN BATTLE BACK BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS PATTERN
BUT THINK IT IS BEST TO GO WITH A BIT DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE PERIODIC SURGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ABOVE THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY START OUT IN THE 60S BUT MODERATE TO
THE 70S AS THE EXTENDED PROGRESSES.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE INCLUDED IN THE
KHYR TAF.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  34  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  31  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  66  35  69  49 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  60  23  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  52  31  57  41 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP

000
FXUS63 KMPX 231048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE QUITE SOME TIME WE CAN SEE
MOONLIGHT OUTSIDE OUR BACK DOOR THIS MORNING HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE
IN CHANHASSEN. THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT 6-7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WE ARE GAINING ABOUT 1
MB PER HOUR AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN
THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM...ONE OF THE
BIGGER CHALLENGES TODAY IS TO DETERMINE JUST HOW DRY THE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
CERTAIN AID IN PROVIDING EXTRA BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
NONETHELESS...MIXING DOWN THE AIR BETWEEN 900-800 MB GIVES US A VERY
DRY AFTERNOON. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SUGGESTS WE CAN
MIX AS HIGH AS 830 MB...WHILE THE RAP...SREF...AND GFS MIX TO 850
MB...870 MB...AND 875 MB RESPECTIVELY. THERE SHOULD BE VIRTUALLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES TODAY.

THE COOL AND DRY DAY TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWER 40S
WEST AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. THE TWIN CITIES METRO SHOULD ALSO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S
TONIGHT. WE KEPT THE MENTION OF FROST IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI. IN FACT...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN
PORTIONS OF WI TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINTING TO THE HIGHEST QPF STAYING SOUTH OF MN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE NAM AND SREF TAKING ON MORE OF WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING
FOR 3 DAYS NOW...AND THAT IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
VERY EVIDENT LOOKING AT THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SPACED 24 HOURS
APART. DEEPER UPPER LOWS ALONG BOTH COAST WITH MORE RIDGING IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TIME...THIS BUILDS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK WEST ACROSS THE FA ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. USING THE ECMWF OUTRIGHT WOULD PLACE DRY WEATHER
OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN MN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN HOWEVER ARE THE GFS AND
GEM. BOTH ARE ADAMANT ON DRIVING WAVE AFTER WAVE ALOFT THROUGH THE
REGION BOTH DAYS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MODEL RUN QPF IS IN THE
SEVERAL INCH RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MN CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE ECMWF ONLY HAS A TENTH TO A HALF INCH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA RESPECTIVELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HENCE...THE WEEKEND/HOLIDAY MAY TURN OUT BETTER THAN THE
FORECAST INDICATES IF THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT. POPS ARE MORE ALIGNED
NOW WITH VERY LOW CHANCES IN WI WITH HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF US. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON
OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
INTO OUT AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUR THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME TONIGHT.

KMSP...

VFR EXPECTED. PREDOMINANTLY A NORTHEAST WIND TODAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

000
FXUS63 KMPX 230915
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE QUITE SOME TIME WE CAN SEE
MOONLIGHT OUTSIDE OUR BACK DOOR THIS MORNING HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE
IN CHANHASSEN. THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT 6-7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WE ARE GAINING ABOUT 1
MB PER HOUR AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW AND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN
THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM...ONE OF THE
BIGGER CHALLENGES TODAY IS TO DETERMINE JUST HOW DRY THE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
CERTAIN AID IN PROVIDING EXTRA BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
NONETHELESS...MIXING DOWN THE AIR BETWEEN 900-800 MB GIVES US A VERY
DRY AFTERNOON. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SUGGESTS WE CAN
MIX AS HIGH AS 830 MB...WHILE THE RAP...SREF...AND GFS MIX TO 850
MB...870 MB...AND 875 MB RESPECTIVELY. THERE SHOULD BE VIRTUALLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES TODAY.

THE COOL AND DRY DAY TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWER 40S
WEST AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. THE TWIN CITIES METRO SHOULD ALSO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S
TONIGHT. WE KEPT THE MENTION OF FROST IN FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI. IN FACT...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN
PORTIONS OF WI TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINTING TO THE HIGHEST QPF STAYING SOUTH OF MN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE NAM AND SREF TAKING ON MORE OF WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING
FOR 3 DAYS NOW...AND THAT IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
VERY EVIDENT LOOKING AT THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SPACED 24 HOURS
APART. DEEPER UPPER LOWS ALONG BOTH COAST WITH MORE RIDGING IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TIME...THIS BUILDS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK WEST ACROSS THE FA ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. USING THE ECMWF OUTRIGHT WOULD PLACE DRY WEATHER
OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN MN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN HOWEVER ARE THE GFS AND
GEM. BOTH ARE ADAMANT ON DRIVING WAVE AFTER WAVE ALOFT THROUGH THE
REGION BOTH DAYS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MODEL RUN QPF IS IN THE
SEVERAL INCH RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MN CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE ECMWF ONLY HAS A TENTH TO A HALF INCH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA RESPECTIVELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HENCE...THE WEEKEND/HOLIDAY MAY TURN OUT BETTER THAN THE
FORECAST INDICATES IF THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT. POPS ARE MORE ALIGNED
NOW WITH VERY LOW CHANCES IN WI WITH HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF US. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON
OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
INTO OUT AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUR THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR SPREADING IN FAST...WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR AT 06Z. SOME MID
CLOUDS REMAIN DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT AND THEN
CLEARING THROUGH 12Z. MAY SEE FEW CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER WEST NEAR
THE RIDGE AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...SO DID
INCLUDE THAT. VFR NONETHELESS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE DAY. RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST
LATE.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS REMAINING
EARLY...THEN SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...DISSIPATING
BY EVENING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS A BIT GUSTY INTO THE DAY...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 230736
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
236 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
FA FROM CANADA. A CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH A NE WIND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NE WIND WILL DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVER THE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WITH A COOL TEMP PROFILE AND THE
CLEAR SKY...HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE FA...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE A MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE ENTIRE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME TO SET
UP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WEST COAST TROF.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION THREATS...GIVEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY
ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THINK
THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY HIT A WALL AS IT TRIES TO
SPREAD TOO FAR EAST INTO THE CWA. THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA BUT THE SW TO WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONFINE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE SW 1/3 OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SPREAD THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO COVER THE SW 2/3 OF
THE CWA. THE DRY AIR WILL THEN BATTLE BACK BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS PATTERN
BUT THINK IT IS BEST TO GO WITH A BIT DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE PERIODIC SURGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ABOVE THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY START OUT IN THE 60S BUT MODERATE TO
THE 70S AS THE EXTENDED PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE INCLUDED IN THE
KHYR TAF.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  34  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  31  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  66  35  69  49 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  60  23  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  52  31  57  41 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DAP

000
FXUS63 KDLH 230552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE INCLUDED IN THE
KHYR TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND. LIGHT RAIN WAS DIMINISHING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THERE MAY BE SOME LLWS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE
INCLUDED THAT IN THE KHYR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE SOURCE FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING CAA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FCST WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND INTO NRN WI
WHERE H85 TEMPS REACH NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO
KEEP TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM IN
THE 20S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IF WINDS GO CALM
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FURTHER.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 KFT THURSDAY. DEW POINTS/RH WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RH REACHING THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH...15-20 PERCENT IN SPOTS...WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES AND ACROSS NORTHERN WIS. WINDS THURSDAY
WILL BE GUSTY...MAINLY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THE IN THE 60S. COOLER READINGS WILL BE
FOUND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP KEEP
THE NORTHLAND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE...SO IT MAY BE TIME TO PULL IN THOSE POTTED PLANTS. I DID NOT
PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OUR OFFICE IS NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THERE
SHOULD EB WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  63  42  58 /   0   0  10  20
INL  30  67  42  64 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  36  67  48  61 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  27  68  41  62 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  31  64  39  59 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...MELDE

000
FXUS63 KMPX 230335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1035 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME PROGRESSION... ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY
SLOW... IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR MANY MANY DAYS IS SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION... GIVING WAS TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING FAIR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS... BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AFTER THAT. BUT... UNTIL
THEN THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST WE SHOULDN/T
HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
ONCE THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF CONCERN GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN
LATELY. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT AND SOME WINDS TO KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHES IN LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA... WITH WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE SUNSHINE... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LONG TERM FORECAST KICKS OFF WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF
FROST OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DOME OF SURFACE 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF RIGHT OVER THIS
REGION BY FRI/12Z TIME FRAME. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD POLAR AIR BEHIND THE EXITING 50H LOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PRODUCE GOOD SWATH OF TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR THIS REGION EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. BY THE WAY
...THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT EAU IS
47 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT FROST SHOULD ALSO OCCUR OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MN TOMORROW NIGHT.

SHORT LIVED 50H RIDGE OVER MN/WI WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE FRIDAY
AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM TREKS INTO THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF MN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE CATALYST FOR LIKELY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN HAVE SUPPORTING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS INITIAL
WAVE OF ACTIVITY. EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD KEEPING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE GFS40 SOLUTION DUE
TO ITS PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 50H LOW OVER THE WA/OREGON REGION
AT 18Z TODAY...AND ITS CURRENT HANDLING OF PCPN OVER OUR CWA.

WITH THAT SAID SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREDOMINATE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO INFILTRATE WESTERN SODAK BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOVE LITTLE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG THETA
E ADVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH STRONG 250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS...AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET. IF THINGS PAN OUT...COULD BE A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCT SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING. BROAD SFC CYCLONE
NOTED ABOVE FORGES INTO A STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. INVERTED TROUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN HALF OF MN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DEMANDED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MOISTURE VALUES AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 1/2 OF AMOUNTS EXPERIENCED WITH CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS THEREAFTER. VERY EARLY TO BE SURE...BUT
CURRENT ANALYSIS PORTENDS POSSIBLE STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHING
THROUGH OUR REGION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR SPREADING IN FAST...WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR AT 06Z. SOME MID
CLOUDS REMAIN DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT AND THEN
CLEARING THROUGH 12Z. MAY SEE FEW CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER WEST NEAR
THE RIDGE AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...SO DID
INCLUDE THAT. VFR NONETHELESS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE DAY. RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST
LATE.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS REMAINING
EARLY...THEN SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...DISSIPATING
BY EVENING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS A BIT GUSTY INTO THE DAY...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20
KT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...DE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 222337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND. LIGHT RAIN WAS DIMINISHING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THERE MAY BE SOME LLWS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE
INCLUDED THAT IN THE KHYR TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE SOURCE FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING CAA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FCST WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND INTO NRN WI
WHERE H85 TEMPS REACH NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO
KEEP TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM IN
THE 20S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IF WINDS GO CALM
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FURTHER.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 KFT THURSDAY. DEW POINTS/RH WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RH REACHING THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH...15-20 PERCENT IN SPOTS...WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES AND ACROSS NORTHERN WIS. WINDS THURSDAY
WILL BE GUSTY...MAINLY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THE IN THE 60S. COOLER READINGS WILL BE
FOUND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP KEEP
THE NORTHLAND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE...SO IT MAY BE TIME TO PULL IN THOSE POTTED PLANTS. I DID NOT
PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OUR OFFICE IS NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THERE
SHOULD EB WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  30  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  64  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  36  62  27  68 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  31  64 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE

000
FXUS63 KMPX 222313
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME PROGRESSION... ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY
SLOW... IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR MANY MANY DAYS IS SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION... GIVING WAS TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING FAIR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS... BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AFTER THAT. BUT... UNTIL
THEN THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST WE SHOULDN/T
HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
ONCE THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF CONCERN GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN
LATELY. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT AND SOME WINDS TO KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHES IN LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA... WITH WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE SUNSHINE... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LONG TERM FORECAST KICKS OFF WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF
FROST OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DOME OF SURFACE 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF RIGHT OVER THIS
REGION BY FRI/12Z TIME FRAME. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD POLAR AIR BEHIND THE EXITING 50H LOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PRODUCE GOOD SWATH OF TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR THIS REGION EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. BY THE WAY
...THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT EAU IS
47 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT FROST SHOULD ALSO OCCUR OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MN TOMORROW NIGHT.

SHORT LIVED 50H RIDGE OVER MN/WI WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE FRIDAY
AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM TREKS INTO THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF MN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE CATALYST FOR LIKELY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN HAVE SUPPORTING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS INITIAL
WAVE OF ACTIVITY. EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD KEEPING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE GFS40 SOLUTION DUE
TO ITS PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 50H LOW OVER THE WA/OREGON REGION
AT 18Z TODAY...AND ITS CURRENT HANDLING OF PCPN OVER OUR CWA.

WITH THAT SAID SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREDOMINATE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO INFILTRATE WESTERN SODAK BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOVE LITTLE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG THETA
E ADVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH STRONG 250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS...AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET. IF THINGS PAN OUT...COULD BE A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCT SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING. BROAD SFC CYCLONE
NOTED ABOVE FORGES INTO A STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. INVERTED TROUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN HALF OF MN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DEMANDED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MOISTURE VALUES AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 1/2 OF AMOUNTS EXPERIENCED WITH CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS THEREAFTER. VERY EARLY TO BE SURE...BUT
CURRENT ANALYSIS PORTENDS POSSIBLE STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHING
THROUGH OUR REGION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART IN THE LIGHT RAIN AREA
TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR BEGINNING AT KAXN/KSTC EARLY. THE RAIN
SHOULD END REGION WIDE THROUGH 05Z OR SO...WITH CEILING RISING TO
MVFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGH CLOUD OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL REMAIN VFR
HOWEVER. NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW INTO THE DAY...BECOMING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT.

KMSP...IMPROVING TREND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z OR SO...THEN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. NORTHEAST WIND
INTO THE EVENING..AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
EARLY...THEN AGAIN INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...AZ
AVIATION...DE

000
FXUS63 KMPX 222223
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME PROGRESSION... ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY
SLOW... IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR MANY MANY DAYS IS SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION... GIVING WAS TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING FAIR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS... BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AFTER THAT. BUT... UNTIL
THEN THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST WE SHOULDN/T
HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
ONCE THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF CONCERN GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN
LATELY. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT AND SOME WINDS TO KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHES IN LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA... WITH WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE SUNSHINE... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LONG TERM FORECAST KICKS OFF WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF
FROST OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DOME OF SURFACE 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF RIGHT OVER THIS
REGION BY FRI/12Z TIME FRAME. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD POLAR AIR BEHIND THE EXITING 50H LOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PRODUCE GOOD SWATH OF TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR THIS REGION EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. BY THE WAY
...THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT EAU IS
47 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT FROST SHOULD ALSO OCCUR OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MN TOMORROW NIGHT.

SHORT LIVED 50H RIDGE OVER MN/WI WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE FRIDAY
AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM TREKS INTO THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF MN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE CATALYST FOR LIKELY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN HAVE SUPPORTING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS INITIAL
WAVE OF ACTIVITY. EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD KEEPING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE GFS40 SOLUTION DUE
TO ITS PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 50H LOW OVER THE WA/OREGON REGION
AT 18Z TODAY...AND ITS CURRENT HANDLING OF PCPN OVER OUR CWA.

WITH THAT SAID SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREDOMINATE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO INFILTRATE WESTERN SODAK BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOVE LITTLE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG THETA
E ADVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH STRONG 250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS...AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET. IF THINGS PAN OUT...COULD BE A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCT SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING. BROAD SFC CYCLONE
NOTED ABOVE FORGES INTO A STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. INVERTED TROUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN HALF OF MN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DEMANDED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MOISTURE VALUES AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 1/2 OF AMOUNTS EXPERIENCED WITH CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS THEREAFTER. VERY EARLY TO BE SURE...BUT
CURRENT ANALYSIS PORTENDS POSSIBLE STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHING
THROUGH OUR REGION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.









&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A
CHANGE AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY WORKS INTO THE
REGION. UNTIL THAT OCCURS... HOWEVER... WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING... WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO DROPPING INTO MVFR WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
HIGH... BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THINGS AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD VARY A BIT MORE THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH VARIABILITY OR NEED
FOR AMENDMENTS AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTED TRENDS WITH A REASONABLE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON COULD IMPROVE A BIT
QUICKER THAN SUGGESTED... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL
STAY DOWN NEAR 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT WITH PATCHES OF RAIN WHEN THEY COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 3-4SM FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE
N/NNE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THE BIG IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TONIGHT MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HOURS OR SO FROM FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KMPX 222056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME PROGRESSION... ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY
SLOW... IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR MANY MANY DAYS IS SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION... GIVING WAS TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING FAIR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS... BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AFTER THAT. BUT... UNTIL
THEN THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST WE SHOULDN/T
HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
ONCE THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF CONCERN GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN
LATELY. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT AND SOME WINDS TO KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHES IN LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA... WITH WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE SUNSHINE... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LONG TERM FORECAST KICKS OFF WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF
FROST OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DOME OF SURFACE 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF RIGHT OVER THIS
REGION BY FRI/12Z TIME FRAME. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD POLAR AIR BEHIND THE EXITING 50H LOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PRODUCE GOOD SWATH OF TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR THIS REGION EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. BY THE WAY
...THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT EAU IS
47 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT FROST SHOULD ALSO OCCUR OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MN TOMORROW NIGHT.

SHORT LIVED 50H RIDGE OVER MN/WI WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE FRIDAY
AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM TREKS INTO THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF MN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE CATALYST FOR LIKELY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN HAVE SUPPORTING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS INITIAL
WAVE OF ACTIVITY. EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD KEEPING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE GFS40 SOLUTION DUE
TO ITS PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 50H LOW OVER THE WA/OREGON REGION
AT 18Z TODAY...AND ITS CURRENT HANDLING OF PCPN OVER OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A
CHANGE AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY WORKS INTO THE
REGION. UNTIL THAT OCCURS... HOWEVER... WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING... WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO DROPPING INTO MVFR WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
HIGH... BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THINGS AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD VARY A BIT MORE THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH VARIABILITY OR NEED
FOR AMENDMENTS AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTED TRENDS WITH A REASONABLE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON COULD IMPROVE A BIT
QUICKER THAN SUGGESTED... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL
STAY DOWN NEAR 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT WITH PATCHES OF RAIN WHEN THEY COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 3-4SM FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE
N/NNE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THE BIG IMPROVMENT TO VFR
TONIGHT MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HOURS OR SO FROM FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KDLH 222039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE SOURCE FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING CAA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FCST WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND INTO NRN WI
WHERE H85 TEMPS REACH NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO
KEEP TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM IN
THE 20S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IF WINDS GO CALM
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FURTHER.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 KFT THURSDAY. DEW POINTS/RH WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RH REACHING THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH...15-20 PERCENT IN SPOTS...WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES AND ACROSS NORTHERN WIS. WINDS THURSDAY
WILL BE GUSTY...MAINLY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THE IN THE 60S. COOLER READINGS WILL BE
FOUND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP KEEP
THE NORTHLAND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE...SO IT MAY BE TIME TO PULL IN THOSE POTTED PLANTS. I DID NOT
PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OUR OFFICE IS NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THERE
SHOULD EB WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES COVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KINL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS OR VSBYS FROM -RA AND BR...AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND THEN CLEAR OUT. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KDLH DUE THE STRONG WINDS COMING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  30  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  64  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  36  62  27  68 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  31  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KMPX 221737
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME PROGRESSION... ALBEIT GRUDGINGLY
SLOW... IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR MANY MANY DAYS IS SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION... GIVING WAS TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING FAIR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS... BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME VARIATION IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AFTER THAT. BUT... UNTIL
THEN THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST WE SHOULDN/T
HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
ONCE THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF CONCERN GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN
LATELY. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT AND SOME WINDS TO KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHES IN LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA... WITH WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE SUNSHINE... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH OUR PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS FOR THE FA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND VERY LOW
DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT IN OUR WI CWA AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR WI COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. USED THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL AS A START FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CONSRAW/CONSMOS. THIS BROUGHT DEW POINTS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS NEAR FREEZING
INDICATED AROUND LADYSMITH WITH MIDDLE 30S AS FAR WEST AS THE
MN/WI BORDER AND WELL AS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
INDICATED FROST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE STARTING WITH LOWS
36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO SLOWLY UNWIND WITH
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE NAM AT THIS POINT IS THE FASTEST ON FRIDAY
ON BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MN CWA ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GEM/GFS AND EURO WOULD KEEP ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST DRY. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND KEPT THE 18Z-24Z POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THE GEM/GFS/EURO THEN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LEAST IN THE FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT (RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

PROGRESSING DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOWS TWO CAMPS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS IS WET ACROSS US SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO IS BASICALLY DRY. THE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS TORMENTED US FOR THE
PAST FIVE DAYS REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AND DEEPENS
AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT FROM THE NORTH. THE EURO IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTUALLY BUILDS THE SURFACE
HIGH BACK WEST FOR A TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEM DOES NOT
HAVE AN UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS FOR MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HENCE...CHANCES POPS INDICATES FOR
MANY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

THE CIPS ANALOGS WERE LOOKED AT OVERNIGHT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRED WITH OUR PATTERN AHEAD. USING THE 144 HOUR
ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWED ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING OVER SD/NE/KS/IA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER
FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GFS
HAVING LOW PRESSURE FORMING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MEANDERING TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EURO WOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. SO WE MAY DODGE SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CLIMB BACK ABOVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A
CHANGE AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY WORKS INTO THE
REGION. UNTIL THAT OCCURS... HOWEVER... WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING... WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO DROPPING INTO MVFR WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
HIGH... BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THINGS AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD VARY A BIT MORE THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH VARIABILITY OR NEED
FOR AMENDMENTS AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTED TRENDS WITH A REASONABLE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON COULD IMPROVE A BIT
QUICKER THAN SUGGESTED... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL
STAY DOWN NEAR 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT WITH PATCHES OF RAIN WHEN THEY COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 3-4SM FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE
N/NNE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THE BIG IMPROVMENT TO VFR
TONIGHT MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HOURS OR SO FROM FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221729
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES COVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KINL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS OR VSBYS FROM -RA AND BR...AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND THEN CLEAR OUT. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KDLH DUE THE STRONG WINDS COMING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND RIBBON OF -RA/DZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REGION OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR SINKS
INTO THE NRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT 1030 AM...VIS SAT
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAD PUSHED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MN...AND REACHED A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE..TO BEMIDJI. BASED
ON RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH THE RANGE CITIES BY NOON...REACHING A KBRD TO KDLH LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 4-5 PM/...THEN PASSING OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  57  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  65  37  66 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  36  61  32  66 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  32  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1034 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND RIBBON OF -RA/DZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REGION OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR SINKS
INTO THE NRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT 1030 AM...VIS SAT
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAD PUSHED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MN...AND REACHED A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE..TO BEMIDJI. BASED
ON RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH THE RANGE CITIES BY NOON...REACHING A KBRD TO KDLH LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 4-5 PM/...THEN PASSING OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO WIN THE BATTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT THE DAY AND
REMAIN VFR AT KINL. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
FROM LARGELY IFR/LIFR TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR...THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  37  57  36 /  80  10   0   0
INL  70  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  58  42  65  37 /  80  10   0   0
HYR  52  38  61  32 /  50  40   0   0
ASX  45  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO WIN THE BATTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT THE DAY AND
REMAIN VFR AT KINL. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
FROM LARGELY IFR/LIFR TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR...THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  37  60  36 /  70  10   0   0
INL  66  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  60  42  65  37 /  70  10   0   0
HYR  53  38  61  32 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  49  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP

000
FXUS63 KMPX 221016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
516 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE STORY TODAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DAMP
CONDITIONS AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO IT IS
DEFINITELY JACKET WEATHER OUT THERE. WE COOLED TEMPERATURES TODAY BY
A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WI WHICH SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TODAY AND WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST...WE MIGHT ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM 6-8
DEGREES FROM WHERE TEMPERATURES STAND NOW. YESTERDAY...ST.CLOUD ONLY
HIT 50 DEGREES FOR A HIGH GIVEN THE COOLING FROM THE NEARLY 0.50" OF
RAIN THAT FELL. THE RAIN WON`T BE NEARLY AS HEAVY TODAY...BUT THE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUFFER AND THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY. THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD
COVER IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE NICE DIURNAL
WARMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUD CLEAR BEFORE OR AROUND THE NOON HOUR IN CENTRAL MN...THE
WE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW WITH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING TREND DOES MEAN WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
/OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER/ OFF THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NICE DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
FOG EARLY THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. IT IS NOT
A BIG CONCERN THROUGH BECAUSE WE ARE QUICKLY ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WE LEFT THE
FOG OUT FOR NOW. WE ALSO KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY
EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS IA/WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN. WE JUST DON`T HAVE THE INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED TOO
MUCH WITH THIS. IN FACT...WE EVEN ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF CHANGING
THE WEATHER FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TODAY. IT
ALL AMOUNTS TO THE SAME THING...COOL AND DAMP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH OUR PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS FOR THE FA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND VERY LOW
DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT IN OUR WI CWA AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR WI COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. USED THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL AS A START FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CONSRAW/CONSMOS. THIS BROUGHT DEW POINTS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS NEAR FREEZING
INDICATED AROUND LADYSMITH WITH MIDDLE 30S AS FAR WEST AS THE
MN/WI BORDER AND WELL AS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
INDICATED FROST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE STARTING WITH LOWS
36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO SLOWLY UNWIND WITH
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE NAM AT THIS POINT IS THE FASTEST ON FRIDAY
ON BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MN CWA ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GEM/GFS AND EURO WOULD KEEP ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST DRY. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND KEPT THE 18Z-24Z POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THE GEM/GFS/EURO THEN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LEAST IN THE FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT (RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

PROGRESSING DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOWS TWO CAMPS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS IS WET ACROSS US SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO IS BASICALLY DRY. THE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS TORMENTED US FOR THE
PAST FIVE DAYS REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AND DEEPENS
AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT FROM THE NORTH. THE EURO IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTUALLY BUILDS THE SURFACE
HIGH BACK WEST FOR A TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEM DOES NOT
HAVE AN UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS FOR MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HENCE...CHANCES POPS INDICATES FOR
MANY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

THE CIPS ANALOGS WERE LOOKED AT OVERNIGHT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRED WITH OUR PATTERN AHEAD. USING THE 144 HOUR
ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWED ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING OVER SD/NE/KS/IA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER
FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GFS
HAVING LOW PRESSURE FORMING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MEANDERING TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EURO WOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. SO WE MAY DODGE SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CLIMB BACK ABOVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

IFR CEILINGS WITH VFR/MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. NOT TOO MUCH
TO ADD HERE BEYOND THE TAF. THE SHOWERS ARE HIT AND MISS...SO THE
VIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WITH MUCH PRECISION. THE CEILINGS
WILL HANG BETWEEN 500-1200 FT THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM NW-SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKC IN MANY SPOTS BY THE LATE
EVENING. THREW IN A FEW HOUR TEMPO FOR FOG AT A COUPLE SITES AFTER
SKIES CLEAR AND BEFORE DRIER AIR MAKES IT IN.

KMSP...

LIFR OR IFR LOOKS TO LINGER THREW MOST OF THE MORNING WITH THE
CEILINGS BEING THE BIGGEST PROBLEM. EVENTUALLY THE AIRPORT SHOULD
GET ABOVE 1000 FT TODAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 1700 FT SHOULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME IN AND OUT OF THE AIRPORT. RAIN MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VIS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 4SM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

000
FXUS63 KMPX 220910
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE STORY TODAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DAMP
CONDITIONS AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO IT IS
DEFINITELY JACKET WEATHER OUT THERE. WE COOLED TEMPERATURES TODAY BY
A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WI WHICH SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TODAY AND WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST...WE MIGHT ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM 6-8
DEGREES FROM WHERE TEMPERATURES STAND NOW. YESTERDAY...ST.CLOUD ONLY
HIT 50 DEGREES FOR A HIGH GIVEN THE COOLING FROM THE NEARLY 0.50" OF
RAIN THAT FELL. THE RAIN WON`T BE NEARLY AS HEAVY TODAY...BUT THE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUFFER AND THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY. THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD
COVER IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE NICE DIURNAL
WARMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUD CLEAR BEFORE OR AROUND THE NOON HOUR IN CENTRAL MN...THE
WE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW WITH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING TREND DOES MEAN WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
/OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER/ OFF THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NICE DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
FOG EARLY THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. IT IS NOT
A BIG CONCERN THROUGH BECAUSE WE ARE QUICKLY ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WE LEFT THE
FOG OUT FOR NOW. WE ALSO KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY
EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS IA/WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN. WE JUST DON`T HAVE THE INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED TOO
MUCH WITH THIS. IN FACT...WE EVEN ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF CHANGING
THE WEATHER FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TODAY. IT
ALL AMOUNTS TO THE SAME THING...COOL AND DAMP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH OUR PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS FOR THE FA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND VERY LOW
DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT IN OUR WI CWA AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR WI COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. USED THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL AS A START FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CONSRAW/CONSMOS. THIS BROUGHT DEW POINTS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS NEAR FREEZING
INDICATED AROUND LADYSMITH WITH MIDDLE 30S AS FAR WEST AS THE
MN/WI BORDER AND WELL AS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
INDICATED FROST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE STARTING WITH LOWS
36 DEGREES OR COLDER.

BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO SLOWLY UNWIND WITH
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE NAM AT THIS POINT IS THE FASTEST ON FRIDAY
ON BRINGING BACK SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MN CWA ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GEM/GFS AND EURO WOULD KEEP ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST DRY. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND KEPT THE 18Z-24Z POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THE GEM/GFS/EURO THEN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LEAST IN THE FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT (RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.

PROGRESSING DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOWS TWO CAMPS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS IS WET ACROSS US SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO IS BASICALLY DRY. THE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS TORMENTED US FOR THE
PAST FIVE DAYS REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AND DEEPENS
AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT FROM THE NORTH. THE EURO IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTUALLY BUILDS THE SURFACE
HIGH BACK WEST FOR A TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEM DOES NOT
HAVE AN UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS FOR MORE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HENCE...CHANCES POPS INDICATES FOR
MANY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

THE CIPS ANALOGS WERE LOOKED AT OVERNIGHT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRED WITH OUR PATTERN AHEAD. USING THE 144 HOUR
ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWED ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING OVER SD/NE/KS/IA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER
FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GFS
HAVING LOW PRESSURE FORMING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MEANDERING TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
EURO WOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. SO WE MAY DODGE SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CLIMB BACK ABOVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. APPEARS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRIEST...WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW TRYING TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. STILL LOOKS GOOD IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS. KAXN WILL BE
ON THE EDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND KRNH AND KEAU TO THE EAST. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE APPEARS MOST LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST...COULD SEE MORE STEADY RAIN
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING NORTHWEST AND THEN CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THIS
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO KMSP AFTER 05Z//THU. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE MORNING
OUT WEST.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINS ON THE EDGE ACROSS THE FILED.
THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER 10Z. WILL CONTINUE
THE IFR CIGS AS WELL...GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS MAIN LIGHT RAIN AREA DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CLEARING TREND INTO THE EVENING...WITH SKC DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z/WED. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT. SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 220812
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.



.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  37  60  36 /  70  10   0   0
INL  66  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  60  42  65  37 /  70  10   0   0
HYR  53  38  61  32 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  49  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....DAP