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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251102
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING FUELED BY THE VEERING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THETA_E
ADVECTION IN CONNECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THIS 40KT JET WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT ENTERS WESTERN WI.

EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP MISSED THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED IN
NORTHEAST SD...SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGHRES MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE RUNS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT DISCARDED.
THE 25.06HRRR HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP AND IT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND AFTER
11Z. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DEEP STABLE
LAYER BENEATH THE ELEVATED CAPE...AND ONLY MARGINAL 30-35KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

LOOKING AHEAD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE MORNING PRECIP
YIELDING ANOTHER MUGGY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR
70F. INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS WEST OF I35...AND RAISED
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SENDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE WEEKEND STARTS OUT ON A MILD NOTE...AS THE AREA REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH IN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE RESULT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE TYPES OF
LOWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR THE HIGHEST FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI...WHERE FORCING/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT ON A DRY AND MILD NOTE AS THE WEEKEND LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CRAMMED BETWEEN WESTERN
RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...YIELDING COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRICKLE SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCLUSION OF 20-30 POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEM MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHOW A
FEW LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN LATER TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS
ACROSS THE EAST AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BEFORE 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR FOG IS LOW AT KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251102
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING FUELED BY THE VEERING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THETA_E
ADVECTION IN CONNECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THIS 40KT JET WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT ENTERS WESTERN WI.

EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP MISSED THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED IN
NORTHEAST SD...SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGHRES MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE RUNS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT DISCARDED.
THE 25.06HRRR HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP AND IT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND AFTER
11Z. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DEEP STABLE
LAYER BENEATH THE ELEVATED CAPE...AND ONLY MARGINAL 30-35KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

LOOKING AHEAD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE MORNING PRECIP
YIELDING ANOTHER MUGGY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR
70F. INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS WEST OF I35...AND RAISED
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SENDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE WEEKEND STARTS OUT ON A MILD NOTE...AS THE AREA REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH IN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE RESULT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE TYPES OF
LOWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR THE HIGHEST FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI...WHERE FORCING/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT ON A DRY AND MILD NOTE AS THE WEEKEND LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CRAMMED BETWEEN WESTERN
RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...YIELDING COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRICKLE SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCLUSION OF 20-30 POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEM MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHOW A
FEW LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN LATER TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS
ACROSS THE EAST AT KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...
PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BEFORE 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR FOG IS LOW AT KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 250930
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECST AREA. AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID-MORNING. REST OF FCST UNCHAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250930
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECST AREA. AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID-MORNING. REST OF FCST UNCHAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250930
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECST AREA. AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID-MORNING. REST OF FCST UNCHAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250930
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECST AREA. AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID-MORNING. REST OF FCST UNCHAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 250830
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING FUELED BY THE VEERING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THETA_E
ADVECTION IN CONNECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THIS 40KT JET WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT ENTERS WESTERN WI.

EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP MISSED THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED IN
NORTHEAST SD...SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGHRES MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE RUNS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT DISCARDED.
THE 25.06HRRR HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP AND IT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND AFTER
11Z. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DEEP STABLE
LAYER BENEATH THE ELEVATED CAPE...AND ONLY MARGINAL 30-35KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

LOOKING AHEAD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE MORNING PRECIP
YIELDING ANOTHER MUGGY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR
70F. INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS WEST OF I35...AND RAISED
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SENDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE WEEKEND STARTS OUT ON A MILD NOTE...AS THE AREA REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH IN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE RESULT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE TYPES OF
LOWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR THE HIGHEST FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI...WHERE FORCING/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT ON A DRY AND MILD NOTE AS THE WEEKEND LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CRAMMED BETWEEN WESTERN
RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...YIELDING COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRICKLE SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCLUSION OF 20-30 POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AROUND 07Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE HOURS
FOLLOWING...REACHING STC AROUND 09Z...MSP AROUND 10Z...AND RNH BY
11Z. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS. FOLLOWING THE PRECIP...MODELS INSIST
ON DEVELOPING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO AS
THEY HAVE OVERDONE THESE EVENTS TIME AND TIME AGAIN THIS SUMMER.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCT MENTION AROUND 2 KFT BEFORE CIGS RISE TOWARD
4 KFT BY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT MSP
AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12 OR 13Z. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND BROUGHT BACK THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250830
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING FUELED BY THE VEERING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THETA_E
ADVECTION IN CONNECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THIS 40KT JET WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT ENTERS WESTERN WI.

EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP MISSED THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED IN
NORTHEAST SD...SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGHRES MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE RUNS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT DISCARDED.
THE 25.06HRRR HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP AND IT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND AFTER
11Z. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DEEP STABLE
LAYER BENEATH THE ELEVATED CAPE...AND ONLY MARGINAL 30-35KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

LOOKING AHEAD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE MORNING PRECIP
YIELDING ANOTHER MUGGY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR
70F. INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS WEST OF I35...AND RAISED
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SENDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE WEEKEND STARTS OUT ON A MILD NOTE...AS THE AREA REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH IN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE RESULT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE TYPES OF
LOWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR THE HIGHEST FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI...WHERE FORCING/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT ON A DRY AND MILD NOTE AS THE WEEKEND LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CRAMMED BETWEEN WESTERN
RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...YIELDING COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRICKLE SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCLUSION OF 20-30 POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AROUND 07Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE HOURS
FOLLOWING...REACHING STC AROUND 09Z...MSP AROUND 10Z...AND RNH BY
11Z. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS. FOLLOWING THE PRECIP...MODELS INSIST
ON DEVELOPING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO AS
THEY HAVE OVERDONE THESE EVENTS TIME AND TIME AGAIN THIS SUMMER.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCT MENTION AROUND 2 KFT BEFORE CIGS RISE TOWARD
4 KFT BY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT MSP
AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12 OR 13Z. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND BROUGHT BACK THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250517
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1217 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  82  58  67 /  40  20  50  50
INL  57  81  58  69 /  40  40  60  40
BRD  58  84  58  70 /  20  10  40  30
HYR  62  85  58  69 /  30  10  50  50
ASX  61  81  56  65 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...DAP/MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250517
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1217 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  82  58  67 /  40  20  50  50
INL  57  81  58  69 /  40  40  60  40
BRD  58  84  58  70 /  20  10  40  30
HYR  62  85  58  69 /  30  10  50  50
ASX  61  81  56  65 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...DAP/MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250406 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ONLY UNTIL RECENTLY HAVE MODELS BEGUN TO LATCH ONTO THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HRRR AND NOW HOPWRF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA TO EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND SPILL INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 18Z
DID NOT HANDLE THIS IDEA WELL...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE
LOW IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE
00Z GLOBAL MODELS WILL LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CAMS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHERE
PW VALUES ARE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS LLJ WILL THEN VEER EASTWARD INTO
SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE MPX
CWA. A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS DEVELOPING MCS AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THUS...THE SOLUTION KEEPING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO IOWA /A
LA NAM...GFS...AND CMC/ IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND THE TIMING WAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE EML AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY CAN PROGRESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WOULD BE ACROSS WRN MN...CLOSEST TO THE EML. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AROUND 07Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE HOURS
FOLLOWING...REACHING STC AROUND 09Z...MSP AROUND 10Z...AND RNH BY
11Z. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS. FOLLOWING THE PRECIP...MODELS INSIST
ON DEVELOPING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO AS
THEY HAVE OVERDONE THESE EVENTS TIME AND TIME AGAIN THIS SUMMER.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCT MENTION AROUND 2 KFT BEFORE CIGS RISE TOWARD
4 KFT BY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT MSP
AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12 OR 13Z. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND BROUGHT BACK THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250406 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ONLY UNTIL RECENTLY HAVE MODELS BEGUN TO LATCH ONTO THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HRRR AND NOW HOPWRF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA TO EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND SPILL INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 18Z
DID NOT HANDLE THIS IDEA WELL...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE
LOW IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE
00Z GLOBAL MODELS WILL LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CAMS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHERE
PW VALUES ARE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS LLJ WILL THEN VEER EASTWARD INTO
SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE MPX
CWA. A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS DEVELOPING MCS AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THUS...THE SOLUTION KEEPING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO IOWA /A
LA NAM...GFS...AND CMC/ IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND THE TIMING WAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE EML AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY CAN PROGRESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WOULD BE ACROSS WRN MN...CLOSEST TO THE EML. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AROUND 07Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE HOURS
FOLLOWING...REACHING STC AROUND 09Z...MSP AROUND 10Z...AND RNH BY
11Z. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS. FOLLOWING THE PRECIP...MODELS INSIST
ON DEVELOPING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO AS
THEY HAVE OVERDONE THESE EVENTS TIME AND TIME AGAIN THIS SUMMER.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCT MENTION AROUND 2 KFT BEFORE CIGS RISE TOWARD
4 KFT BY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT MSP
AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12 OR 13Z. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND BROUGHT BACK THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 250105 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
805 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ONLY UNTIL RECENTLY HAVE MODELS BEGUN TO LATCH ONTO THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HRRR AND NOW HOPWRF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA TO EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND SPILL INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 18Z
DID NOT HANDLE THIS IDEA WELL...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE
LOW IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE
00Z GLOBAL MODELS WILL LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CAMS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHERE
PW VALUES ARE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS LLJ WILL THEN VEER EASTWARD INTO
SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE MPX
CWA. A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS DEVELOPING MCS AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THUS...THE SOLUTION KEEPING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO IOWA /A
LA NAM...GFS...AND CMC/ IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND THE TIMING WAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE EML AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY CAN PROGRESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WOULD BE ACROSS WRN MN...CLOSEST TO THE EML. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH TO CONSIDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 23Z AT MSP
AND STP WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 41 KTS WERE REPORTED. GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAVE PRODUCED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN MN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA THIS EVENING. OTHER CIGS...THE MVFR
VARIETY...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF MSP ALONG I-94. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...SO MADE MENTION OF IT FOR THE
FIRST HOUR IN STC AND AXN TAFS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING ITS HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER IA AND ERN MT...AND
IT SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BETWEEN 06-07Z OVER FAR WRN
MN AND HEADING EAST INTO WRN WI BY 09Z OR 10Z. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT SINCE SO MANY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WAS ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 ATTM.

KMSP...THE GUSTS HAVE CEASED FOLLOWING THE UNEXPECTED 41 KT GUST
AT 23Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE A
LITTLE CLOSE TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SO KEPT THE TAF AT PROB30. COME THE 03Z AMD...SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY OR REINTRODUCE PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250105 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
805 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ONLY UNTIL RECENTLY HAVE MODELS BEGUN TO LATCH ONTO THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HRRR AND NOW HOPWRF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA TO EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND SPILL INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 18Z
DID NOT HANDLE THIS IDEA WELL...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE
LOW IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE
00Z GLOBAL MODELS WILL LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CAMS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHERE
PW VALUES ARE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS LLJ WILL THEN VEER EASTWARD INTO
SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE MPX
CWA. A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS DEVELOPING MCS AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THUS...THE SOLUTION KEEPING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO IOWA /A
LA NAM...GFS...AND CMC/ IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND THE TIMING WAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE EML AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY CAN PROGRESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WOULD BE ACROSS WRN MN...CLOSEST TO THE EML. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH TO CONSIDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 23Z AT MSP
AND STP WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 41 KTS WERE REPORTED. GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAVE PRODUCED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN MN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA THIS EVENING. OTHER CIGS...THE MVFR
VARIETY...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF MSP ALONG I-94. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...SO MADE MENTION OF IT FOR THE
FIRST HOUR IN STC AND AXN TAFS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING ITS HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER IA AND ERN MT...AND
IT SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BETWEEN 06-07Z OVER FAR WRN
MN AND HEADING EAST INTO WRN WI BY 09Z OR 10Z. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT SINCE SO MANY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WAS ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 ATTM.

KMSP...THE GUSTS HAVE CEASED FOLLOWING THE UNEXPECTED 41 KT GUST
AT 23Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE A
LITTLE CLOSE TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SO KEPT THE TAF AT PROB30. COME THE 03Z AMD...SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY OR REINTRODUCE PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 250104 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ONLY UNTIL RECENTLY HAVE MODELS BEGUN TO LATCH ONTO THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HRRR AND NOW HOPWRF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA TO EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND SPILL INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 18Z
DID NOT HANDLE THIS IDEA WELL...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE
LOW IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE
00Z GLOBAL MODELS WILL LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CAMS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHERE
PW VALUES ARE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS LLJ WILL THEN VEER EASTWARD INTO
SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE MPX
CWA. A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS DEVELOPING MCS AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THUS...THE SOLUTIONS KEEPING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO IOWA
/A LA NAM...GFS...AND CMC/ IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND THE TIMING WAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE EML AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY CAN PROGRESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WOULD BE ACROSS WRN MN...CLOSEST TO THE EML. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH TO CONSIDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 23Z AT MSP
AND STP WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 41 KTS WERE REPORTED. GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAVE PRODUCED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN MN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA THIS EVENING. OTHER CIGS...THE MVFR
VARIETY...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF MSP ALONG I-94. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...SO MADE MENTION OF IT FOR THE
FIRST HOUR IN STC AND AXN TAFS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING ITS HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER IA AND ERN MT...AND
IT SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BETWEEN 06-07Z OVER FAR WRN
MN AND HEADING EAST INTO WRN WI BY 09Z OR 10Z. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT SINCE SO MANY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WAS ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 ATTM.

KMSP...THE GUSTS HAVE CEASED FOLLOWING THE UNEXPECTED 41 KT GUST
AT 23Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE A
LITTLE CLOSE TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SO KEPT THE TAF AT PROB30. COME THE 03Z AMD...SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY OR REINTRODUCE PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 250104 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ONLY UNTIL RECENTLY HAVE MODELS BEGUN TO LATCH ONTO THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HRRR AND NOW HOPWRF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA TO EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND SPILL INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 18Z
DID NOT HANDLE THIS IDEA WELL...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN QUITE
LOW IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE
00Z GLOBAL MODELS WILL LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CAMS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHERE
PW VALUES ARE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS LLJ WILL THEN VEER EASTWARD INTO
SWRN MN OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE MPX
CWA. A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS DEVELOPING MCS AS IT CONTINUES EAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THUS...THE SOLUTIONS KEEPING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO IOWA
/A LA NAM...GFS...AND CMC/ IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND THE TIMING WAS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE EML AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY CAN PROGRESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WOULD BE ACROSS WRN MN...CLOSEST TO THE EML. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH TO CONSIDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 23Z AT MSP
AND STP WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 41 KTS WERE REPORTED. GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAVE PRODUCED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN MN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA THIS EVENING. OTHER CIGS...THE MVFR
VARIETY...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF MSP ALONG I-94. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...SO MADE MENTION OF IT FOR THE
FIRST HOUR IN STC AND AXN TAFS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING ITS HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER IA AND ERN MT...AND
IT SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BETWEEN 06-07Z OVER FAR WRN
MN AND HEADING EAST INTO WRN WI BY 09Z OR 10Z. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT SINCE SO MANY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WAS ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 ATTM.

KMSP...THE GUSTS HAVE CEASED FOLLOWING THE UNEXPECTED 41 KT GUST
AT 23Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE A
LITTLE CLOSE TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SO KEPT THE TAF AT PROB30. COME THE 03Z AMD...SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY OR REINTRODUCE PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250009
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
709 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  77  60  81 /  20  30  40  30
INL  56  78  57  80 /  20  40  50  50
BRD  64  80  61  84 /  30  30  20  30
HYR  59  77  59  84 /  30  30  30  30
ASX  58  77  58  82 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250009
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
709 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  77  60  81 /  20  30  40  30
INL  56  78  57  80 /  20  40  50  50
BRD  64  80  61  84 /  30  30  20  30
HYR  59  77  59  84 /  30  30  30  30
ASX  58  77  58  82 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 242342 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH TO CONSIDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 23Z AT MSP
AND STP WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 41 KTS WERE REPORTED. GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAVE PRODUCED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN MN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA THIS EVENING. OTHER CIGS...THE MVFR
VARIETY...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF MSP ALONG I-94. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...SO MADE MENTION OF IT FOR THE
FIRST HOUR IN STC AND AXN TAFS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING ITS HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER IA AND ERN MT...AND
IT SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BETWEEN 06-07Z OVER FAR WRN
MN AND HEADING EAST INTO WRN WI BY 09Z OR 10Z. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT SINCE SO MANY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WAS ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 ATTM.

KMSP...THE GUSTS HAVE CEASED FOLLOWING THE UNEXPECTED 41 KT GUST
AT 23Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE A
LITTLE CLOSE TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SO KEPT THE TAF AT PROB30. COME THE 03Z AMD...SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY OR REINTRODUCE PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 242342 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH TO CONSIDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AS RECENTLY AS 23Z AT MSP
AND STP WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 41 KTS WERE REPORTED. GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAVE PRODUCED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN MN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA THIS EVENING. OTHER CIGS...THE MVFR
VARIETY...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF MSP ALONG I-94. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...SO MADE MENTION OF IT FOR THE
FIRST HOUR IN STC AND AXN TAFS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING ITS HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER IA AND ERN MT...AND
IT SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BETWEEN 06-07Z OVER FAR WRN
MN AND HEADING EAST INTO WRN WI BY 09Z OR 10Z. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT SINCE SO MANY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WAS ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 ATTM.

KMSP...THE GUSTS HAVE CEASED FOLLOWING THE UNEXPECTED 41 KT GUST
AT 23Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE A
LITTLE CLOSE TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SO KEPT THE TAF AT PROB30. COME THE 03Z AMD...SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COMPLETELY OR REINTRODUCE PREVAILING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 242109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  74  59  82 /  30  50  40  20
INL  59  75  57  81 /  20  40  40  40
BRD  64  79  58  84 /  40  40  20  10
HYR  61  75  62  85 /  30  40  30  10
ASX  60  75  61  81 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...MPX








000
FXUS63 KDLH 242109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  74  59  82 /  30  50  40  20
INL  59  75  57  81 /  20  40  40  40
BRD  64  79  58  84 /  40  40  20  10
HYR  61  75  62  85 /  30  40  30  10
ASX  60  75  61  81 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...MPX









000
FXUS63 KMPX 241949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 241949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 241949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KMPX 241949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 241757
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  79  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  77  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  73  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241757
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  79  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  77  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  73  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241757
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  79  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  77  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  73  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241757
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  79  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  77  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  73  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KMPX 241659
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241659
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241140
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND IT SHOULD LIFT
BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KBRD AS
THAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  80  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  78  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241140
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND IT SHOULD LIFT
BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KBRD AS
THAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  80  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  78  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 241044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

7K FOOT CIGS HAVE THWARTED THE FOG OVER WI THIS MORNING...SO
STARTING OFF ALL TERMINALS VFR. 6Z HOPWRF MEMBERS PICKED UP ON
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK QUITE WELL...AND
BELIEVE THEIR EVOLUTION FOR THESE STORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS
TO DIMINISH THEM BEFORE THEY REACH MN...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT REALLY START TO SHOW UP IN MN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE GREATEST FROM RWF TO MSP AND
POINTS SOUTH. ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS THOUGH TO KEEP ANY TSRA
MENTION TO A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF THE TAF
COMPONENTS.

KMSP...WITH THE 6Z NAM LOOKING MUCH LIKE ITS 00Z COUNTERPART AND
THE 00Z ECMWF...RETAINED PROB30 TSRA MENTION BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z.
AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL/TIMING NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THE PROB30. FRIDAY
MORNING...THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SO BROUGHT IN A SCT020 TO HINT AT THAT THREAT FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SSE WINDS INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

7K FOOT CIGS HAVE THWARTED THE FOG OVER WI THIS MORNING...SO
STARTING OFF ALL TERMINALS VFR. 6Z HOPWRF MEMBERS PICKED UP ON
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK QUITE WELL...AND
BELIEVE THEIR EVOLUTION FOR THESE STORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS
TO DIMINISH THEM BEFORE THEY REACH MN...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT REALLY START TO SHOW UP IN MN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE GREATEST FROM RWF TO MSP AND
POINTS SOUTH. ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS THOUGH TO KEEP ANY TSRA
MENTION TO A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF THE TAF
COMPONENTS.

KMSP...WITH THE 6Z NAM LOOKING MUCH LIKE ITS 00Z COUNTERPART AND
THE 00Z ECMWF...RETAINED PROB30 TSRA MENTION BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z.
AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL/TIMING NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THE PROB30. FRIDAY
MORNING...THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SO BROUGHT IN A SCT020 TO HINT AT THAT THREAT FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SSE WINDS INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

7K FOOT CIGS HAVE THWARTED THE FOG OVER WI THIS MORNING...SO
STARTING OFF ALL TERMINALS VFR. 6Z HOPWRF MEMBERS PICKED UP ON
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK QUITE WELL...AND
BELIEVE THEIR EVOLUTION FOR THESE STORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS
TO DIMINISH THEM BEFORE THEY REACH MN...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT REALLY START TO SHOW UP IN MN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE GREATEST FROM RWF TO MSP AND
POINTS SOUTH. ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS THOUGH TO KEEP ANY TSRA
MENTION TO A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF THE TAF
COMPONENTS.

KMSP...WITH THE 6Z NAM LOOKING MUCH LIKE ITS 00Z COUNTERPART AND
THE 00Z ECMWF...RETAINED PROB30 TSRA MENTION BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z.
AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL/TIMING NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THE PROB30. FRIDAY
MORNING...THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SO BROUGHT IN A SCT020 TO HINT AT THAT THREAT FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SSE WINDS INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

7K FOOT CIGS HAVE THWARTED THE FOG OVER WI THIS MORNING...SO
STARTING OFF ALL TERMINALS VFR. 6Z HOPWRF MEMBERS PICKED UP ON
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK QUITE WELL...AND
BELIEVE THEIR EVOLUTION FOR THESE STORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS
TO DIMINISH THEM BEFORE THEY REACH MN...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT REALLY START TO SHOW UP IN MN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE GREATEST FROM RWF TO MSP AND
POINTS SOUTH. ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS THOUGH TO KEEP ANY TSRA
MENTION TO A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF THE TAF
COMPONENTS.

KMSP...WITH THE 6Z NAM LOOKING MUCH LIKE ITS 00Z COUNTERPART AND
THE 00Z ECMWF...RETAINED PROB30 TSRA MENTION BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z.
AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL/TIMING NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THE PROB30. FRIDAY
MORNING...THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SO BROUGHT IN A SCT020 TO HINT AT THAT THREAT FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SSE WINDS INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FEW PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRONE
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING AFTER A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING
SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ACTUALLY SEEING RAIN AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION
SUCH AS RWF...SO REMOVED THE CHANCE THERE. THEN...A MORE ROBUST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS
INDICATED AT MSP AND RWF. MSP MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA 6 HOUR
WINDOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TURNING EAST AND NEARLY
SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.

KMSP...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FEW PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRONE
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING AFTER A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING
SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ACTUALLY SEEING RAIN AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION
SUCH AS RWF...SO REMOVED THE CHANCE THERE. THEN...A MORE ROBUST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS
INDICATED AT MSP AND RWF. MSP MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA 6 HOUR
WINDOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TURNING EAST AND NEARLY
SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.

KMSP...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD









000
FXUS63 KDLH 240814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.





&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THUR JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF KHIB
AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE
KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  80  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  78  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 240814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.





&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THUR JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF KHIB
AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE
KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  80  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  78  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 240814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.





&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THUR JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF KHIB
AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE
KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  80  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  78  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 240814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WISCONSIN. PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOME
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. MULTI MODEL QPF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN ADVANCING MEASURABLE INTO THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE POPS FROM TODAYS FCST WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON FCST 925 TEMPS. SCT
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 5KFT BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SODAK WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
A LLJ EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN MN BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO NRN IOWA BY 12Z. IT APPEARS A MCS/MCC WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACK INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY EARLY
MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LVL CAP. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
FROM ERN SODAK TO SRN MANITOBA MAY PROMOTE INCREASED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INHIBITION TO
RESTRICT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SLOWED ARRIVAL
INTO ARROWHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LEVEL OF MID LVL WARMING MAY
NEGATE POPS ENTIRELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA AND UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED.

TOMORROW...MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SFC FRONTAL BDRY SLOWLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT
INCREASING BDRY LYR INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID/UPPER CLOUD
LAYER ADVECTS EAST BY MIDDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOESNT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL LATE AFTN OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA. WITH LITTLE BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS INITIATION AND A RELATIVELY WARM MID LAYER
STILL IN EXISTENCE...CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING.
AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROB OF DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ACROSS NWRN   CWA IN
AN AREA OF GREATEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY/LOWER CIN AND 35/45KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS LOW LVL THICKNESSES HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE SOME OF
THAT WARMING IN ERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
WEAKENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND IS LIKELY MORE ACCURATE AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GEM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST
POPS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MID EIGHTIES.

WE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
NORTHLAND SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70-75.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE SOME. WE HAVE
SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER SEVENTIES.





&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THUR JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF KHIB
AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE
KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  77  60 /  10  20  30  40
INL  77  56  78  57 /  10  20  40  50
BRD  80  64  80  61 /  10  30  30  20
HYR  78  59  77  59 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240454
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FEW PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRONE
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING AFTER A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING
SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ACTUALLY SEEING RAIN AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION
SUCH AS RWF...SO REMOVED THE CHANCE THERE. THEN...A MORE ROBUST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS
INDICATED AT MSP AND RWF. MSP MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA 6 HOUR
WINDOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TURNING EAST AND NEARLY
SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.

KMSP...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240454
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FEW PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRONE
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING AFTER A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING
SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ACTUALLY SEEING RAIN AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION
SUCH AS RWF...SO REMOVED THE CHANCE THERE. THEN...A MORE ROBUST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS
INDICATED AT MSP AND RWF. MSP MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA 6 HOUR
WINDOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TURNING EAST AND NEARLY
SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.

KMSP...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240454
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FEW PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRONE
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING AFTER A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING
SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ACTUALLY SEEING RAIN AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION
SUCH AS RWF...SO REMOVED THE CHANCE THERE. THEN...A MORE ROBUST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS
INDICATED AT MSP AND RWF. MSP MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA 6 HOUR
WINDOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TURNING EAST AND NEARLY
SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.

KMSP...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240454
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FEW PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRONE
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING AFTER A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING
SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ACTUALLY SEEING RAIN AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION
SUCH AS RWF...SO REMOVED THE CHANCE THERE. THEN...A MORE ROBUST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS
INDICATED AT MSP AND RWF. MSP MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA 6 HOUR
WINDOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TURNING EAST AND NEARLY
SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.

KMSP...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 232356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...EAU CLAIRE AND NEW RICHMOND WILL SEE CALM CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE HIGH. OTHER SITES FURTHER WEST AREN`T AS NOTORIOUS FOR FOG AND
WONT REMAIN AS CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MOVE IN ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW...SO CONTINUED
THE PROB30 AT REDWOOD FALLS. DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO HAVE MUCH
OF AN IMPACT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA FOR THIS PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR WITH WINDS STARTING NORTHERLY AND TURNING EASTERLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND NEARLY SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP
TO REACH MSP AT THIS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MUCH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES COME IN AFTER 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD







000
FXUS63 KMPX 232356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...EAU CLAIRE AND NEW RICHMOND WILL SEE CALM CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE HIGH. OTHER SITES FURTHER WEST AREN`T AS NOTORIOUS FOR FOG AND
WONT REMAIN AS CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MOVE IN ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW...SO CONTINUED
THE PROB30 AT REDWOOD FALLS. DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO HAVE MUCH
OF AN IMPACT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA FOR THIS PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR WITH WINDS STARTING NORTHERLY AND TURNING EASTERLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND NEARLY SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP
TO REACH MSP AT THIS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MUCH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES COME IN AFTER 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KDLH 232345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
KHIB AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO
THE KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 232345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
KHIB AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO
THE KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 232345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
KHIB AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO
THE KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 232345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
KHIB AND KHYR. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT. RAIN/TSTM CHANCES MOVE INTO
THE KINL/KBRD AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 232139
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
439 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF...PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 232139
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
439 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT TO REMAIN QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK IN TO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
LIKE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THURSDAY.  THE MORNING WILL STILL BE
QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  A MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...JUST CATCHING
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT HAVE
ONLY PUT HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OR OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE SE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF...PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  74  58  74 /   0  10  20  30
INL  45  76  58  77 /   0  10  20  40
BRD  55  78  63  79 /   0  30  40  30
HYR  45  76  59  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  47  76  57  76 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KMPX 232029
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 232029
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 232029
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KMPX 232029
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR SCOPE IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER TIED TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
ROTATING MOISTURE PLUME AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IN KS AND NE.  THE
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THE LLJ QUICKLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE 23.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM AND MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WANT TO
DRIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SOUTH WITH
TIME AND WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT PENETRATES TOO FAR INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST OF THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW /AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/. THE 23.00Z ECMWF WAS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...THE 23.12Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART BUT IT WOULD STILL SUGGEST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-00Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A CHG FROM AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING...TO A MORE LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN
WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WX SCENARIO BY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND VEER DURING THE
MORNING HRS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMTS IN
THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE W/WSW BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CHANGING THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LLJ REMAINS.

AFT FRIDAY MORNING...A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI
LEADING TO SOME AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHC/S WILL OCCUR LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN...MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TRACKING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD ALONG THIS FAST MOVING
WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT.

ONCE THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MOVES EAST OF MN AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OUR WX WILL TURN
COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN ADDITION...N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
DRIER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTION ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EASTERN U.S.

THIS TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 231739 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE
STABLE POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SFC T/TD SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER SEN CWA AND NEAR KAIT. ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS CONSIDERING THE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS. ALOFT A NW FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD AS A MID
LVL RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD
COVER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS MID LVL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND WILL
ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING TO DOMINATE DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING SO WE
SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE IN PLAY TODAY. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN THE
HIGHER RES MDL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM DLH WRF. XSECTS DERIVED
FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST A LAYER OF SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 5K
TO 7K FT LAYER...POSSIBLY BROKEN AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON LOWER 925 TEMPS AND LOWER
MIXING LAYER DEPTH.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MORNING. MAX RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN WISC ZONES
AND ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
TREK EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA BY THE LATE AFTN. A LLJ WILL
DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN UNDERNEATH A MID LVL CAP.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTN
AND SHIFTING TOWARDS SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS MAY WANDER
INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. STABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES
MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000J/KG BY 12Z FRIDAY TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AROUND 400 J/KG. STABILITY WILL DROP
FURTHER FRIDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SIXTIES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS
WELL. WE WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR NOW.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHERN SK FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY MONDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FRIDAY TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF...PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0  30
INL  76  45  78  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  79  55  79  63 /   0  10  20  40
HYR  77  45  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  74  46  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231706
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE H5 CHART LAST NIGHT WAS THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER COLORADO...WHERE THE H5 HEIGHT MEASURED AT GRAND
JUNCTION REACHED THE LOFTY HEIGHT OF 6000 M. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WITH CONVERGENT NW FLOW NOTED
FROM MANITOBA INTO NW MN...HENCE THE 1028 MB SFC HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE MANITOBA LAKES THIS MORNING. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISS VALLEY
WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z THU.

FOR TODAY...NAM CU RULE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN
WI...TRAILING OFF TO LITTLE IF ANY CU FOR WRN MN. HOWEVER...WRN MN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM UPPER WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE COLORADO RIDGE. IN PARTICULAR...THE RAP SHOWS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NODAK WORKING TOWARD WRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
DRY LOW LEVELS COURTESY THE 1028 MB HIGH WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
THE PRECIP IN THE MINOT AREA INTO MN...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DID BOOST SKY COVER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THOUGH. H85 TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM AROUND 12/13C...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THIS
SUMMER AT PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE...SO NO BIG
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

TONIGHT...AS THE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS WI...RETURN FLOW WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION BOTH BLOSSOMING. LLJ ORIENTATION FAVORS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO RIVER TONIGHT...MAKING ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS
SE SODAK...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 12Z THU...THOUGH WE
PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE TO WAIT VERY LONG ON THU TO START SEEING
PRECIP PUSH INTO THE UPPER MN VALLEY. OVER WI...WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW TO GO...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DID NUDGE LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS RAW MODEL BLEND /BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK/...WHICH HAS LADYSMITH DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE FOG
POTENTIAL IS A BIT TOUGHER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT CERTAINLY
IF WE DO SEE LOWS DOWN AROUND 50...SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN DAKOTAS AT DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MN
CWA DURING THE DAY AND INTO WESTERN WI BY EVENING AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE MOVES EAST. THE FA IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 80 PLUS KNOT JET SEGMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INDICATED. BY THE END OF THE DAY...A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE...AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEW SEGMENT ARRIVES FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE THEN PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF MN AND IA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS VEERS INTO IA AND
SOUTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION
WHILE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A CHARACTERISTIC OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVENTS. HENCE...CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ESE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE FA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL POPS REMAINING. MUCH OF
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NECESSITATES MORE
CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FROM
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY WILL BE SLOWLY RISING FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S RESPECTIVELY. HIGHS WILL THEN TREND DOWN INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE REASON FOR THE EXTENDED COOL DOWN IS A DEEPENING
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST.
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH A H5 CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEDNESDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
ACCOMPANYING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 231706
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE H5 CHART LAST NIGHT WAS THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER COLORADO...WHERE THE H5 HEIGHT MEASURED AT GRAND
JUNCTION REACHED THE LOFTY HEIGHT OF 6000 M. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WITH CONVERGENT NW FLOW NOTED
FROM MANITOBA INTO NW MN...HENCE THE 1028 MB SFC HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE MANITOBA LAKES THIS MORNING. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISS VALLEY
WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z THU.

FOR TODAY...NAM CU RULE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN
WI...TRAILING OFF TO LITTLE IF ANY CU FOR WRN MN. HOWEVER...WRN MN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM UPPER WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE COLORADO RIDGE. IN PARTICULAR...THE RAP SHOWS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NODAK WORKING TOWARD WRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
DRY LOW LEVELS COURTESY THE 1028 MB HIGH WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
THE PRECIP IN THE MINOT AREA INTO MN...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DID BOOST SKY COVER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THOUGH. H85 TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM AROUND 12/13C...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THIS
SUMMER AT PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE...SO NO BIG
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

TONIGHT...AS THE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS WI...RETURN FLOW WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION BOTH BLOSSOMING. LLJ ORIENTATION FAVORS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO RIVER TONIGHT...MAKING ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS
SE SODAK...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 12Z THU...THOUGH WE
PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE TO WAIT VERY LONG ON THU TO START SEEING
PRECIP PUSH INTO THE UPPER MN VALLEY. OVER WI...WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW TO GO...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DID NUDGE LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS RAW MODEL BLEND /BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK/...WHICH HAS LADYSMITH DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE FOG
POTENTIAL IS A BIT TOUGHER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT CERTAINLY
IF WE DO SEE LOWS DOWN AROUND 50...SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN DAKOTAS AT DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MN
CWA DURING THE DAY AND INTO WESTERN WI BY EVENING AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE MOVES EAST. THE FA IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 80 PLUS KNOT JET SEGMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INDICATED. BY THE END OF THE DAY...A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE...AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEW SEGMENT ARRIVES FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE THEN PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF MN AND IA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS VEERS INTO IA AND
SOUTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION
WHILE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A CHARACTERISTIC OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVENTS. HENCE...CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ESE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE FA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL POPS REMAINING. MUCH OF
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NECESSITATES MORE
CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FROM
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY WILL BE SLOWLY RISING FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S RESPECTIVELY. HIGHS WILL THEN TREND DOWN INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE REASON FOR THE EXTENDED COOL DOWN IS A DEEPENING
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST.
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH A H5 CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEDNESDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
ACCOMPANYING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE
STABLE POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SFC T/TD SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER SEN CWA AND NEAR KAIT. ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS CONSIDERING THE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS. ALOFT A NW FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD AS A MID
LVL RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD
COVER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS MID LVL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND WILL
ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING TO DOMINATE DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING SO WE
SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE IN PLAY TODAY. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN THE
HIGHER RES MDL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM DLH WRF. XSECTS DERIVED
FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST A LAYER OF SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 5K
TO 7K FT LAYER...POSSIBLY BROKEN AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON LOWER 925 TEMPS AND LOWER
MIXING LAYER DEPTH.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MORNING. MAX RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN WISC ZONES
AND ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
TREK EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA BY THE LATE AFTN. A LLJ WILL
DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN UNDERNEATH A MID LVL CAP.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTN
AND SHIFTING TOWARDS SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS MAY WANDER
INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. STABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES
MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000J/KG BY 12Z FRIDAY TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AROUND 400 J/KG. STABILITY WILL DROP
FURTHER FRIDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SIXTIES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS
WELL. WE WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR NOW.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHERN SK FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY MONDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FRIDAY TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN BE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL LEAD TO MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0  30
INL  76  45  78  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  79  55  79  63 /   0  10  20  40
HYR  77  45  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  74  46  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE
STABLE POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SFC T/TD SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER SEN CWA AND NEAR KAIT. ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS CONSIDERING THE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS. ALOFT A NW FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD AS A MID
LVL RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD
COVER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS MID LVL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND WILL
ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING TO DOMINATE DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING SO WE
SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE IN PLAY TODAY. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN THE
HIGHER RES MDL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM DLH WRF. XSECTS DERIVED
FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST A LAYER OF SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 5K
TO 7K FT LAYER...POSSIBLY BROKEN AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON LOWER 925 TEMPS AND LOWER
MIXING LAYER DEPTH.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MORNING. MAX RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN WISC ZONES
AND ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
TREK EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA BY THE LATE AFTN. A LLJ WILL
DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN UNDERNEATH A MID LVL CAP.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTN
AND SHIFTING TOWARDS SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS MAY WANDER
INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. STABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES
MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000J/KG BY 12Z FRIDAY TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AROUND 400 J/KG. STABILITY WILL DROP
FURTHER FRIDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SIXTIES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS
WELL. WE WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR NOW.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHERN SK FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY MONDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FRIDAY TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN BE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL LEAD TO MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0  30
INL  76  45  78  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  79  55  79  63 /   0  10  20  40
HYR  77  45  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  74  46  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE
STABLE POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SFC T/TD SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER SEN CWA AND NEAR KAIT. ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS CONSIDERING THE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS. ALOFT A NW FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD AS A MID
LVL RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD
COVER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS MID LVL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND WILL
ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING TO DOMINATE DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING SO WE
SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE IN PLAY TODAY. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN THE
HIGHER RES MDL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM DLH WRF. XSECTS DERIVED
FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST A LAYER OF SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 5K
TO 7K FT LAYER...POSSIBLY BROKEN AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON LOWER 925 TEMPS AND LOWER
MIXING LAYER DEPTH.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MORNING. MAX RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN WISC ZONES
AND ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
TREK EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA BY THE LATE AFTN. A LLJ WILL
DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN UNDERNEATH A MID LVL CAP.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTN
AND SHIFTING TOWARDS SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS MAY WANDER
INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. STABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES
MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000J/KG BY 12Z FRIDAY TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AROUND 400 J/KG. STABILITY WILL DROP
FURTHER FRIDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SIXTIES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS
WELL. WE WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR NOW.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHERN SK FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY MONDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FRIDAY TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN BE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL LEAD TO MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0  30
INL  76  45  78  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  79  55  79  63 /   0  10  20  40
HYR  77  45  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  74  46  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE
STABLE POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SFC T/TD SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER SEN CWA AND NEAR KAIT. ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS CONSIDERING THE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS. ALOFT A NW FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD AS A MID
LVL RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD
COVER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS MID LVL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND WILL
ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING TO DOMINATE DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING SO WE
SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE IN PLAY TODAY. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN THE
HIGHER RES MDL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM DLH WRF. XSECTS DERIVED
FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST A LAYER OF SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 5K
TO 7K FT LAYER...POSSIBLY BROKEN AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON LOWER 925 TEMPS AND LOWER
MIXING LAYER DEPTH.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MORNING. MAX RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN WISC ZONES
AND ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
TREK EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA BY THE LATE AFTN. A LLJ WILL
DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN UNDERNEATH A MID LVL CAP.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTN
AND SHIFTING TOWARDS SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS MAY WANDER
INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. STABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES
MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000J/KG BY 12Z FRIDAY TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AROUND 400 J/KG. STABILITY WILL DROP
FURTHER FRIDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SIXTIES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS
WELL. WE WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR NOW.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHERN SK FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY MONDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FRIDAY TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN BE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL LEAD TO MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0  30
INL  76  45  78  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  79  55  79  63 /   0  10  20  40
HYR  77  45  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  74  46  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







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