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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200523 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  49  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  58 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  36  58  38  58 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  31  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  34  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200523 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  49  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  58 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  36  58  38  58 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  31  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  34  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 200339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200244 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200244 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE ADDED ITS MENTION TO THE 20/00Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 200003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE ADDED ITS MENTION TO THE 20/00Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 200003
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE ADDED ITS MENTION TO THE 20/00Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER






000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER






000
FXUS63 KMPX 192057
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JRB






000
FXUS63 KMPX 192057
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
MON MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTO NW WI LATE MON MORNING. POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE IFR CIGS AT INL AS WELL. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE N BY MON MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  41  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  44  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
MON MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTO NW WI LATE MON MORNING. POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE IFR CIGS AT INL AS WELL. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE N BY MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  10  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 191744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
MON MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTO NW WI LATE MON MORNING. POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE IFR CIGS AT INL AS WELL. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE N BY MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  10  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 191638
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB






000
FXUS63 KMPX 191638
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191137 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW
IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO NE MINNESOTA LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE IFR/MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KINL AND KHIB...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THIS YET IN THE TAF.

THE REGION HAD LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE KHYR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND SHEAR ISSUES UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING DUE TO 35 TO 40 KNOT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
W TO WNW AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191137 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW
IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO NE MINNESOTA LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE IFR/MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KINL AND KHIB...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THIS YET IN THE TAF.

THE REGION HAD LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE KHYR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND SHEAR ISSUES UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING DUE TO 35 TO 40 KNOT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
W TO WNW AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KMPX 191125
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OUT THERE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

KMSP...

SLOWLY VEERING WINDS THIS MORNING...WE EXPECT THE DIRECTION TO BE
CLOSER TO S-SW BY MID MORNING. ONLY PASSING CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA. WINDS S 10G20KTS.
THU...VFR. CHANCE OF -RA. WINDS S-SE 5-10KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF









000
FXUS63 KMPX 190900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 190900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART






000
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190530 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILTY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  52  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
INL  39  50  32  53 /   0  10   0   0
BRD  41  56  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  41  54  31  53 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  42  53  34  52 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  38  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  28  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  38  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  28  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  38  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  28  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  38  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  28  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






000
FXUS63 KMPX 182331
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND VEER TO THE SW
AND W DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
FEW GUSTS FROM 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE
TO 5-10 KT BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182331
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND VEER TO THE SW
AND W DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
FEW GUSTS FROM 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE
TO 5-10 KT BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182331
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND VEER TO THE SW
AND W DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
FEW GUSTS FROM 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE
TO 5-10 KT BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182331
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND VEER TO THE SW
AND W DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
FEW GUSTS FROM 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE
TO 5-10 KT BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB









000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








000
FXUS63 KMPX 181801
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /  10  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /  10  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /  10  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 181726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /  10  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /  10  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /  10  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KMPX 181105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 181105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 181105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 181105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 181105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD






000
FXUS63 KMPX 180828
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SITES INITIALIZED BETWEEN LOWER-END VFR AND UPPER END MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE 06Z TAF SET AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS SO WILL LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO DROP TO 2-3 KFT
CEILING OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK TMRW. CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
DURG THE DAY TMRW AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. NW TO N WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN GO LGT/VRBL FOR A PERIOD DURG
THE DAY TMRW BEFORE PICKING UP LIGHTLY FROM THE SSE. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.

KMSP...LOW-END VFR CEILINGS TO START BUT UPSTREAM UPPER-END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MSP AREA DURING THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. MVFR CEILINGS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MRNG SATURDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AFTN
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGHS CLOUDS RETURN. THE RIDGING WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH TNGT THRU TMRW...
INCLUDING GOING LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO SSE LATE
TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 180828
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SITES INITIALIZED BETWEEN LOWER-END VFR AND UPPER END MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE 06Z TAF SET AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS SO WILL LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO DROP TO 2-3 KFT
CEILING OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK TMRW. CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
DURG THE DAY TMRW AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. NW TO N WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN GO LGT/VRBL FOR A PERIOD DURG
THE DAY TMRW BEFORE PICKING UP LIGHTLY FROM THE SSE. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.

KMSP...LOW-END VFR CEILINGS TO START BUT UPSTREAM UPPER-END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MSP AREA DURING THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. MVFR CEILINGS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MRNG SATURDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AFTN
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGHS CLOUDS RETURN. THE RIDGING WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH TNGT THRU TMRW...
INCLUDING GOING LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO SSE LATE
TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC







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