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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241137 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...ISSUED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES. FIRST WAVE OF PCPN HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH HAS
KEPT THE PCPN FROM REACHING CKC/GNA WHERE THERE IS AN 18F DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. SOME PCPN MAY EVENTUALLY GET THERE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. THIS PCPN IS IN AN AREA OF 700-500MB FGEN
FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS MORNING UNTIL A MID LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS MN FROM ND
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW IN SW MANITOBA. SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S F. WHEN
THE SECOND ROUND OF PCPN ARRIVES BY MID MORNING...PTYPE WILL BE
LIQUID. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR THE LAKE...A MIX OF RASN IS EXPECTED WITH ALL
SNOW OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER WWD
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AS COLDER AIR DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN CANADA. SINCE THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. REGARDLESS...HAVE DROPPED
THE WATCH IN FAVOR OF A WARNING FOR INLAND LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES
AND THE LAKESHORE PORTION OF COOK COUNTY. THE LAKESHORE SECTION OF
LAKE COUNTY HAS BEEN PLACED IN AN ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED LOWER
SNOW TOTALS. ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTIES. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH 8 TO 11 IN THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY FROM S TO N TONIGHT. THIS
IS DUE TO THE BEST FORCING MOVING E OF THE FA AFTER 06Z AND THE
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MOVES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH UVM WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OVER THE ARROWHEAD
BY 12Z FRIDAY TO WARRANT POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER. THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BORDERLAND TO THE
ARROWHEAD UNTIL 12Z. HAVE THE ADVISORY ENDING AT THIS TIME WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOUT COMPLETE. THE WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 17Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A PARTIALLY PHASED SPLIT FLOW FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL EXIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MID LVL TROF AXIS WILL
BE ADVECTING EAST OF THE ARROWHEAD FRIDAY SO PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
SPRINGTIME SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL MODULATION OF THE THERMAL
FIELDS WITH MORNING SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WITHIN A
DEEP LAYER IS LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN NW FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME RESIDUAL
CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP FROM ARROWHEAD INTO SOUTH SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY WX PATTERN SATURDAY AS NARROW UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO NRN
PLAINS. PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE MODE AS
ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING IS INDICATED BY NWP TO TAKE PLACE OVER CTRL
CONUS. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CTRL PLAINS LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM CANT MOVE EAST DUE TO A
BLOCK IN THE FLOW OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE DEVELOPING SFC/MID
LVL HIGH TAKES RESIDENCE NEAR MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. BIG UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER ANY PRECIP MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH FROM THE CTRL
PLAINS SYSTEM. MDL DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE ALTHOUGH EC HAS
MAINTAINED DRIEST PATTERN CONSISTENTLY. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM NO POPS
TO PERHAPS JUST A FEW RENEGADE BANDS OF SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SRN
MOST OF CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEYOND THAT THE
FLOW GETS EVEN MORE COMPLEX AS A SHORTWAVE LOBE FROM THE ERN SYSTEM
ROTATES WEST INTO THE GT LAKES AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MIDWEST MID
LVL LOW. THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES INTO ONE VERY LARGE BLOCKING LOW OVER
THE CTRL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE..THE ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIP WITH SUCH A FEATURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS TOO DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE. UNTIL MORE DETAIL BECOME EVIDENT WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS OVER SRN/ERN CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
CLIMO UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
MORE SRN POSITIONING OF BLOCKING MID LVL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP HAS PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES WITH
RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE. RADAR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
OVER SRN MN ADVECTING TOWARDS REGION. SHOULD SEE RAIN INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MID MORNING. PTYPES STILL FAVORING A
TRANSITION TO RASN AND SNOW OVER NRN TERMINALS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SRN CWA AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LOWERIN GOF VIS IN FOG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  31  45  28 /  90  70  30  20
INL  43  32  45  27 /  90  80  50  10
BRD  44  33  54  33 /  80  30  20  10
HYR  43  32  51  29 /  90  60  20  10
ASX  42  32  46  28 / 100 100  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 241052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
THE CHANCE OF WET SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
INITIAL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND BASED ON BEST LI`S...THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA NOW...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S.  AS STRONG LIFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POTWX TOOL DID INDICATE SMALL AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THAT REGION INTO TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS/  THE RAIN AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE SOUTH EAST. SECOND AREA OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD TEMPS ALOFT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.  MENTIONED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 40S
IN THE AREAS SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN CWA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT.  DIDNT MENTION ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE POSITIVE NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE
NOT-SO-POSITIVE PART IS THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES THE MARRYING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW
WITH A LOW THAT BACK PEDDLES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM QUEBEC. WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES TO IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-30 POPS
LITTERING THE FORECAST... AS THE MASSIVE LOW OVERWHELMS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD UPSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING BAJA TROUGH.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S UP TOWARD LADYSMITH WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND AS THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH REACHES THE PLAINS. RELATED PRECIPIATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NOTABLY INCREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED 60-80 POPS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...EXCEPTING A LITTLE
FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE LINE WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN MN LOCALES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNINTY FOR THUNDER...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS /INTERSTATE 94
AND NORTH/ MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN /PRIMARILY IN THE NOCTURNAL
TIMEFRAMES MONDAY-TUESDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOW POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...THROUGH THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVIER RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA
MAINLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 2SM RA BR.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST TO NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER BY 00Z
FRI. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE THE CIGS/VSBYS TO THE WEST...BUT WILL
REMAIN LOWER TO THE EAST INTO THE NIGHT. SOME THREAT OF IFR FG
DEVELOPING BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION SOME MVFR VSBYS THERE FOR NOW. THIS MAY SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL DROP IN BEHIND
THAT TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER THAT SOME MORNING FOG/LOWER CLOUDS INTO WISCONSIN.

SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AHEAD OF SYSTEM EXITING TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DEPARTS...WIND SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST/WEST AND REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...WILL CONTINUE IFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING...SLOWLY RISING
TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNS THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND TO MORE N/NW BY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BREAK OUT
TO THE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IF
WINDS DIE OFF COMPLETELY. AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MIX TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING THAT FOR NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240853
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES. FIRST WAVE OF PCPN HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH HAS
KEPT THE PCPN FROM REACHING CKC/GNA WHERE THERE IS AN 18F DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. SOME PCPN MAY EVENTUALLY GET THERE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. THIS PCPN IS IN AN AREA OF 700-500MB FGEN
FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS MORNING UNTIL A MID LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS MN FROM ND
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW IN SW MANITOBA. SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S F. WHEN
THE SECOND ROUND OF PCPN ARRIVES BY MID MORNING...PTYPE WILL BE
LIQUID. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR THE LAKE...A MIX OF RASN IS EXPECTED WITH ALL
SNOW OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER WWD
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AS COLDER AIR DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN CANADA. SINCE THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. REGARDLESS...HAVE DROPPED
THE WATCH IN FAVOR OF A WARNING FOR INLAND LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES
AND THE LAKESHORE PORTION OF COOK COUNTY. THE LAKESHORE SECTION OF
LAKE COUNTY HAS BEEN PLACED IN AN ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED LOWER
SNOW TOTALS. ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTIES. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH 8 TO 11 IN THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY FROM S TO N TONIGHT. THIS
IS DUE TO THE BEST FORCING MOVING E OF THE FA AFTER 06Z AND THE
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MOVES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH UVM WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OVER THE ARROWHEAD
BY 12Z FRIDAY TO WARRANT POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER. THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BORDERLAND TO THE
ARROWHEAD UNTIL 12Z. HAVE THE ADVISORY ENDING AT THIS TIME WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOUT COMPLETE. THE WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL 17Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A PARTIALLY PHASED SPLIT FLOW FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL EXIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MID LVL TROF AXIS WILL
BE ADVECTING EAST OF THE ARROWHEAD FRIDAY SO PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
SPRINGTIME SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL MODULATION OF THE THERMAL
FIELDS WITH MORNING SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WITHIN A
DEEP LAYER IS LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN NW FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME RESIDUAL
CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP FROM ARROWHEAD INTO SOUTH SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY WX PATTERN SATURDAY AS NARROW UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO NRN
PLAINS. PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE MODE AS
ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING IS INDICATED BY NWP TO TAKE PLACE OVER CTRL
CONUS. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CTRL PLAINS LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM CANT MOVE EAST DUE TO A
BLOCK IN THE FLOW OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE DEVELOPING SFC/MID
LVL HIGH TAKES RESIDENCE NEAR MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. BIG UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER ANY PRECIP MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH FROM THE CTRL
PLAINS SYSTEM. MDL DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE ALTHOUGH EC HAS
MAINTAINED DRIEST PATTERN CONSISTENTLY. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM NO POPS
TO PERHAPS JUST A FEW RENEGADE BANDS OF SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SRN
MOST OF CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEYOND THAT THE
FLOW GETS EVEN MORE COMPLEX AS A SHORTWAVE LOBE FROM THE ERN SYSTEM
ROTATES WEST INTO THE GT LAKES AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MIDWEST MID
LVL LOW. THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES INTO ONE VERY LARGE BLOCKING LOW OVER
THE CTRL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE..THE ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIP WITH SUCH A FEATURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS TOO DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE. UNTIL MORE DETAIL BECOME EVIDENT WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS OVER SRN/ERN CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
CLIMO UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
MORE SRN POSITIONING OF BLOCKING MID LVL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AN AREA OF FGEN/SHORTWAVE FORCED PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN...ALONG WITH
SNOW/SLEET...WAS OCCURRING IN THIS BAND. CEILINGS WERE ALSO
LOWERING WITH SEVERAL SITES REPORTING IFR. WE EXPECT IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND
CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER KBRD...BUT IT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP INTENSITY WILL DECREASE ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST. RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN IT WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  31  45  28 /  90  70  30  20
INL  43  32  45  27 /  90  80  50  10
BRD  44  33  54  33 /  80  30  20  10
HYR  43  32  51  29 / 100  60  20  10
ASX  42  32  46  28 / 100 100  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON








000
FXUS63 KMPX 240846
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
THE CHANCE OF WET SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
INITIAL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND BASED ON BEST LI`S...THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA NOW...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S.  AS STRONG LIFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POTWX TOOL DID INDICATE SMALL AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THAT REGION INTO TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS/  THE RAIN AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE SOUTH EAST. SECOND AREA OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD TEMPS ALOFT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.  MENTIONED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 40S
IN THE AREAS SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN CWA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT.  DIDNT MENTION ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE POSITIVE NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE
NOT-SO-POSITIVE PART IS THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES THE MARRYING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW
WITH A LOW THAT BACK PEDDLES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM QUEBEC. WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES TO IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-30 POPS
LITTERING THE FORECAST... AS THE MASSIVE LOW OVERWHELMS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD UPSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING BAJA TROUGH.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S UP TOWARD LADYSMITH WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND AS THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH REACHES THE PLAINS. RELATED PRECIPIATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NOTABLY INCREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED 60-80 POPS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...EXCEPTING A LITTLE
FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE LINE WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN MN LOCALES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNINTY FOR THUNDER...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS /INTERSTATE 94
AND NORTH/ MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN /PRIMARILY IN THE NOCTURNAL
TIMEFRAMES MONDAY-TUESDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOW POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL WFO MPX TERMINALS AT
24/06Z INITIALIZATION TIME BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ORGANIZING OVER FAR SWRN MN AND GOING UPSTREAM
FROM THERE. THIS LARGER AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COVERAGE AREA APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THRU MIDDAY THU.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN
ARND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY DROP VSBY
INTO IFR RAIN DUE TO PRECIP INTENSITY. AS FOR CIGS...ALL SITES ARE
VFR BUT HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MVFR CIGS FROM THE 00Z SET PER THESE TRENDS BUT AM STILL XPCTG
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 09Z-10Z AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO TRY TO PINPOINT CONVECTION AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AN
INCOMING CDFNT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE HRS
TMRW WITH THE FROPA. WINDS TO REMAIN NE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TMRW THEN SWING AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW TMRW EVE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT THRU TMRW AFTN THEN DIMINISHING.

KMSP...VFR CONDS TO START THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN
HRS ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY SOLID RAIN. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THRU LATE MRNG...WITH A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN LIKELY DURG
THE MRNG PUSH WHICH MAY DROP CONDS INTO IFR RANGE. PRECIP
GRADUALLY ABATES BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTN AND CONDS IMPROVE FROM
THERE. WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE SE THRU LATE MRNG...THEN AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWING ARND TO SW BY MID
AFTN THEN TO WNW TMRW AFTN AND EVE. SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST DURG
THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THIS TAF SET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240541 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1241 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTERS/OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MORE SLEET/SNOW OCCURRING THIS
EVENING THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED. WE HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO
ADD MORE SLEET SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE FROM PINE RIVER TO MOOSE LAKE AND ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WITH BOTH DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING LEADING
TO COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES. WE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME...AND
COULD SEE SOME AREAS GET AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. DRY AIR OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA WAS SLOWING THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME SLEET WAS
ALSO REPORTED OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STRONG FGEN FORCING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS THE
FGEN WEAKENING SOME AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE PRECIP TYPE THIS EVENING...AS SOUNDINGS ARE CLOSE
TO BEING RAIN OR SNOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

WE WILL ALSO UPDATE TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AN AREA OF FGEN/SHORTWAVE FORCED PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN...ALONG WITH
SNOW/SLEET...WAS OCCURRING IN THIS BAND. CEILINGS WERE ALSO
LOWERING WITH SEVERAL SITES REPORTING IFR. WE EXPECT IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND
CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER KBRD...BUT IT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP INTENSITY WILL DECREASE ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST. RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN IT WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  45  27  41 /  70  30  20  10
INL  32  45  26  46 /  80  40  10  10
BRD  33  54  32  51 /  30  20  10  10
HYR  33  51  28  49 /  60  30  10  10
ASX  32  46  27  42 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON







000
FXUS63 KMPX 240424
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1124 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN
RIVER VALLEY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE
TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD
SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL WFO MPX TERMINALS AT
24/06Z INITIALIZATION TIME BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ORGANIZING OVER FAR SWRN MN AND GOING UPSTREAM
FROM THERE. THIS LARGER AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COVERAGE AREA APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THRU MIDDAY THU.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN
ARND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY DROP VSBY
INTO IFR RAIN DUE TO PRECIP INTENSITY. AS FOR CIGS...ALL SITES ARE
VFR BUT HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MVFR CIGS FROM THE 00Z SET PER THESE TRENDS BUT AM STILL XPCTG
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 09Z-10Z AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO LATE AFTN.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO TRY TO PINPOINT CONVECTION AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AN
INCOMING CDFNT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE HRS
TMRW WITH THE FROPA. WINDS TO REMAIN NE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TMRW THEN SWING AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW TMRW EVE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT THRU TMRW AFTN THEN DIMINISHING.

KMSP...VFR CONDS TO START THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN
HRS ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY SOLID RAIN. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THRU LATE MRNG...WITH A PERIOD OF MOD-HVY RAIN LIKELY DURG
THE MRNG PUSH WHICH MAY DROP CONDS INTO IFR RANGE. PRECIP
GRADUALLY ABATES BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTN AND CONDS IMPROVE FROM
THERE. WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE SE THRU LATE MRNG...THEN AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWING ARND TO SW BY MID
AFTN THEN TO WNW TMRW AFTN AND EVE. SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST DURG
THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THIS TAF SET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240212
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTERS/OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MORE SLEET/SNOW OCCURRING THIS
EVENING THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED. WE HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO
ADD MORE SLEET SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE FROM PINE RIVER TO MOOSE LAKE AND ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WITH BOTH DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING LEADING
TO COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES. WE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME...AND
COULD SEE SOME AREAS GET AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. DRY AIR OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA WAS SLOWING THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME SLEET WAS
ALSO REPORTED OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STRONG FGEN FORCING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS THE
FGEN WEAKENING SOME AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE PRECIP TYPE THIS EVENING...AS SOUNDINGS ARE CLOSE
TO BEING RAIN OR SNOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

WE WILL ALSO UPDATE TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER KBRD WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION ADVANCES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT SOME SLEET AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 240043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN
RIVER VALLEY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE
TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD
SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

-RA PUSHING THRU THE REGION AT INITIALIZATION IS MAINLY AFFECTING
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU...AND ONLY FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A BONA FIDE BREAK FOR SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-08Z ACRS THE COVERAGE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN. ERN MN INTO WRN WI LOOK TO HAVE A MUCH SHORTER
WINDOW FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. THE SECOND ROUND THAT COMES IN
ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE MOD-HVY BANDS WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY
PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR CONDS WITHIN PREVAILING MVFR. PRECIP THEN
LOOKS TO LINGER THRU MIDDAY THU BEFORE EXITING LATE DAY THU. ALL
SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR THEN DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND LINGER AS
SUCH THRU MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE OCNL IFR CIGS. AS FOR VSBY...
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT. FOR WINDS...SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE TMRW MRNG. AS THE LOW PRES CENTER SLIDES
ACRS SRN MN TMRW AFTN...WINDS WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AND
EVENTUALLY LAND ON NW WINDS BY LATE AFTN. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG AND REMAIN THERE WITH THE WIND SHIFT
BEFORE INCRG BACK TO NEAR 10 KT LATE.

KMSP...VFR AT INITIALIZATION THEN CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY THU
MRNG AND WILL REMAIN AS MVFR THRU THE DAY TMRW. CIGS LIKELY TO
DROP TO SUB-1700 FT ARND DAYBREAK...LASTING THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING. HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIP LOOK TO DEVELOP ARND
DAYBREAK...WITH MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY AFFECTING THE MRNG
PUSH. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. DRY AIR OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA WAS SLOWING THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME SLEET WAS
ALSO REPORTED OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STRONG FGEN FORCING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS THE
FGEN WEAKENING SOME AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE PRECIP TYPE THIS EVENING...AS SOUNDINGS ARE CLOSE
TO BEING RAIN OR SNOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

WE WILL ALSO UPDATE TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER KBRD WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION ADVANCES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT SOME SLEET AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 232048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS DUE TO THE REX
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS
FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS
SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON
WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S. ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING
PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE
COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE
END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HRS. OUR FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT THE NOON HOUR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK BACK TO THE
WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS SW MN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A HEAVIER, STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR IF NOT IFR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

KMSP...INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH BY
22Z...WITH MORE STEADY RAIN RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED BY 09Z...NOT IMPROVING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
     065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JCA







000
FXUS63 KDLH 232034
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NE MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY SE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM DRY AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
AROUND 8 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
STRETCHING FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA TO SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO THE NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...SUCH AS AT KDLH AND KHIB WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME -SN MIXED IN WITH THE -RA.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW AT
KDLH/KHIB/KINL...LATER THURSDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE KBRD AND KHYR COULD SEE BRIEF WIND SHEAR ISSUES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SSE WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT. THESE WINDS ARE
NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING WIND SHEAR TO THE
FORECASTS...BUT IF NEWER MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS...THEN WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE SSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONGEST AT KBRD AND KHYR...SO THAT IS WHERE WIND SHEAR
WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT A BIT. DEFORMATION AREA
WAS TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
HOLDING IT OFF A BIT DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA RANGED FROM THE TEENS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO
20S ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
MODIFICATIONS AND MAY EVEN HAVE TO RAISE THEM MORE IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NE MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY SE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM DRY AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
AROUND 8 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
STRETCHING FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA TO SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO THE NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...SUCH AS AT KDLH AND KHIB WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME -SN MIXED IN WITH THE -RA.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW AT
KDLH/KHIB/KINL...LATER THURSDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE KBRD AND KHYR COULD SEE BRIEF WIND SHEAR ISSUES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SSE WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT. THESE WINDS ARE
NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING WIND SHEAR TO THE
FORECASTS...BUT IF NEWER MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS...THEN WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE SSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONGEST AT KBRD AND KHYR...SO THAT IS WHERE WIND SHEAR
WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  33  42  32 /  10 100  90  60
INL  57  36  43  32 /  10 100  90  70
BRD  49  38  49  35 /  80  90  80  20
HYR  57  38  49  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  51  36  45  33 /  10  80  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231716
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE 00Z HIRES NMM MODEL WAS INDICATING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL TREND OF THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN THROUGH 17Z. THUNDER LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRANSLATING MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH 00Z THU.  INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY REMAINS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7 PM.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS BRINGS
IN STRONG FORCING INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA TO AROUND
1 INCH WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE LOOK
GOOD HERE.  THUNDER LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS INTO A PART OF
WEST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...AND REMAIN
STABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW...AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A WET LONG TERM FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A GIVEN...WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST TO EVOLVE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE /AND MODEL AGREEMENT/ IS DECENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEN
DEGRADES INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY A
CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

THE FIRST RAIN-MAKER WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD /THURSDAY/...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. SAID AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO NEAR ONE INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY /ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP
LINGERS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
AFTERNOON CLEARING IS MORE PROBABLE.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN ND/MN/WI WILL TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ITS FORECAST POSITION HAS WOBBLED A BIT OVER MODEL
RUNS...BUT HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT NORTH...AND ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT DO THINK LOW/MID 60S ARE ACHIEVABLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW/MID 50S MORE LIKELY
TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL /LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS/ AND A BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT
RELATED SHOWERS TO START LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I94 COULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY BY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HRS. OUR FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT THE NOON HOUR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK BACK TO THE
WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS SW MN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A HEAVIER, STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR IF NOT IFR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

KMSP...INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH BY
22Z...WITH MORE STEADY RAIN RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED BY 09Z...NOT IMPROVING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
     065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JCA







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT A BIT. DEFORMATION AREA
WAS TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
HOLDING IT OFF A BIT DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA RANGED FROM THE TEENS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO
20S ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
MODIFICATIONS AND MAY EVEN HAVE TO RAISE THEM MORE IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST WHICH BRINGS LOWERING
CEILINGS TODAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST. EXPECT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AT KBRD...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. NEXT UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS A CHC THAT LLWS MAY
DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDNCE
INCREASES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  33  42  32 /  10 100  90  60
INL  57  36  43  32 /  10 100  90  70
BRD  49  38  49  35 /  80  90  80  20
HYR  57  38  49  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  51  36  45  33 /  10  80  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231140 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST WHICH BRINGS LOWERING
CEILINGS TODAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST. EXPECT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AT KBRD...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. NEXT UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS A CHC THAT LLWS MAY
DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDNCE
INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  33  38  32 /  30 100  90  60
INL  56  36  41  32 /  20 100  90  70
BRD  47  39  47  35 /  80 100  80  20
HYR  53  36  45  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  48  34  42  33 /  20  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231051
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE 00Z HIRES NMM MODEL WAS INDICATING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL TREND OF THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN THROUGH 17Z. THUNDER LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRANSLATING MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH 00Z THU.  INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY REMAINS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7 PM.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS BRINGS
IN STRONG FORCING INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA TO AROUND
1 INCH WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE LOOK
GOOD HERE.  THUNDER LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS INTO A PART OF
WEST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...AND REMAIN
STABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW...AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A WET LONG TERM FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A GIVEN...WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST TO EVOLVE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE /AND MODEL AGREEMENT/ IS DECENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEN
DEGRADES INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY A
CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

THE FIRST RAIN-MAKER WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD /THURSDAY/...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. SAID AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO NEAR ONE INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY /ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP
LINGERS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
AFTERNOON CLEARING IS MORE PROBABLE.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN ND/MN/WI WILL TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ITS FORECAST POSITION HAS WOBBLED A BIT OVER MODEL
RUNS...BUT HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT NORTH...AND ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT DO THINK LOW/MID 60S ARE ACHIEVABLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW/MID 50S MORE LIKELY
TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL /LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS/ AND A BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT
RELATED SHOWERS TO START LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I94 COULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY BY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOST AREAS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
ESPECIALLY AFTER 05Z...WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH 10Z. BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY MN SITES DURING THE DAY...WORKING
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ISOLD AT TAF SITES
SO LEFT OUT OUT FOR NOW. EXPECT IFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE THU
MORNING FOR NOW...AS TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND OVER WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECT
TO RELAX SOME TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY MOST AREAS.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 15Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA BR
DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z THU. SOME THREAT
OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF IT WAS
TO HAPPEN...GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN 06Z/11Z THU. SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU AFTN...MVFR CONDS WITH SHRA PSBL. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 230919
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE 00Z HIRES NMM MODEL WAS INDICATING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL TREND OF THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN THROUGH 17Z. THUNDER LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRANSLATING MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH 00Z THU.  INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DURING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY REMAINS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7 PM.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS BRINGS
IN STRONG FORCING INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA TO AROUND
1 INCH WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE LOOK
GOOD HERE.  THUNDER LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS INTO A PART OF
WEST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...AND REMAIN
STABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW...AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A WET LONG TERM FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A GIVEN...WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST TO EVOLVE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE /AND MODEL AGREEMENT/ IS DECENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEN
DEGRADES INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY A
CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

THE FIRST RAIN-MAKER WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD /THURSDAY/...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. SAID AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO NEAR ONE INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY /ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP
LINGERS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
AFTERNOON CLEARING IS MORE PROBABLE.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN ND/MN/WI WILL TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ITS FORECAST POSITION HAS WOBBLED A BIT OVER MODEL
RUNS...BUT HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT NORTH...AND ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT DO THINK LOW/MID 60S ARE ACHIEVABLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW/MID 50S MORE LIKELY
TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL /LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS/ AND A BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT
RELATED SHOWERS TO START LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I94 COULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY BY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW AND/OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN
FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES EXITS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING BUT
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS ENE DURG THE DAY WEDNESDAY TWD THIS REGION...CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND -SHRA/-RA WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION MID-TO-LATE
MRNG. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REGION
BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR CONDS TO DROP MUCH BELOW UPPER-REGIONS OF
MVFR...IF AT ALL DURG THE DAYTIME HRS.MVFR CONDS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT AFTER 00Z...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER RAINS AFTER 00Z
WHICH MAY WELL PRODUCE IFR VSBY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CB/TS SINCE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WHILE ISOLD
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 5 KT. WINDS WILL SETTLE ON
SE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...
EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TMRW AFTN
INTO TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...THEN WILL LOOK
FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AHEAD OF THAT TIME...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W...GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING. MIDLVL CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG AND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. -SHRA/-RA WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MRNG AND BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT CHCS FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW VFR ARE FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT. MORE PREVALENT MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TMRW EVE
ALONG WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CREATING ENOUGH VSBY RESTRICTION TO
INCLUDE IFR CONDS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO SE OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN SE THRU TMRW. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15G25KT
AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...DURG THE DAY TMRW INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 230911
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX
WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  33  38  32 /  30 100  90  60
INL  56  36  41  32 /  20 100  90  70
BRD  47  39  47  35 /  80 100  80  20
HYR  53  36  45  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  48  34  42  33 /  20  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 230522 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN MORE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGIN TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE A WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX
WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  43  32  43 /  80  90  60  40
INL  36  45  32  42 /  80  90  70  40
BRD  41  52  35  49 /  90  70  40  30
HYR  38  50  35  49 /  90  90  50  40
ASX  36  47  34  44 /  80  90  70  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON







000
FXUS63 KMPX 230407
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1107 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LAG THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA
DRY UNTIL EARLY MORNING (~12Z). SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN FAE E MN AND
W WI). DESPITE THESE CHALLENGES...MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT PRECIP
DEVELOPS QUICKER... OVERCOMING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN WARM ADVECTION
CASES LIKE THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO E SD LATE. WARM ADVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP GENERATION ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE AND MOVE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO REFLECT THIS BAND OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE ANY T-STORM THREAT IN S SD/NEB AND IOWA.
I AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT TO REFLECT THE
DECREASED CHANCES...T WAS REMOVED FROM THE WX GRIDS. QPF WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.1" TO 0.4"
(HIGHEST IN THE N & E PART OF THE CWA). MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TYPICALLY WINDY
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SE TO THE TUNE OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. UP TO 40KTS OF
WIND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH REALIZING WINDS THIS STRONG IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH MAY INHIBIT MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT SAID...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS FSD AND ABR...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INCREASE TO A
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN POINTING AT A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDING ACROSS WESTERN IA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND EAU CLAIRE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THE LAYOUT AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH ON
THE 295K THETA SURFACE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS COVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER IOWA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY LOOKS NIL AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FA. SO WE WILL
HAVE TO MANUFACTURE OUR OWN FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER DRILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CUTTING
OFF THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS PROJECTED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WAA PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS ON TURNING
THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW SHOWS THAT A CUT-OFF HIGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A REX BLOCK (HIGH OVER LOW)
DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SECOND REX BLOCK FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE THE SYMMETRY IN THE
ANIMATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW. ANYWAY...THERE/S NO
WHERE FOR OUR UPPER LOW TO GO WITH THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT
OUR LOW IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. HENCE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD SEAL THE MONTH
OF APRIL BEING BELOW NORMAL HERE AT MSP. THIS WOULD BE 6 MONTHS IN
A ROW. ONE FINAL THING...WE HAD TO KEEP THE S WORD IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN
FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES EXITS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING BUT
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS ENE DURG THE DAY WEDNESDAY TWD THIS REGION...CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND -SHRA/-RA WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION MID-TO-LATE
MRNG. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REGION
BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR CONDS TO DROP MUCH BELOW UPPER-REGIONS OF
MVFR...IF AT ALL DURG THE DAYTIME HRS.MVFR CONDS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT AFTER 00Z...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER RAINS AFTER 00Z
WHICH MAY WELL PRODUCE IFR VSBY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CB/TS SINCE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WHILE ISOLD
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 5 KT. WINDS WILL SETTLE ON
SE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...
EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TMRW AFTN
INTO TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...THEN WILL LOOK
FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AHEAD OF THAT TIME...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W...GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING. MIDLVL CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG AND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. -SHRA/-RA WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MRNG AND BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT CHCS FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW VFR ARE FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT. MORE PREVALENT MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TMRW EVE
ALONG WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CREATING ENOUGH VSBY RESTRICTION TO
INCLUDE IFR CONDS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO SE OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN SE THRU TMRW. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15G25KT
AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...DURG THE DAY TMRW INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ047-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 230016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
716 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LAG THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA
DRY UNTIL EARLY MORNING (~12Z). SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN FAE E MN AND
W WI). DESPITE THESE CHALLENGES...MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT PRECIP
DEVELOPS QUICKER... OVERCOMING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN WARM ADVECTION
CASES LIKE THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO E SD LATE. WARM ADVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP GENERATION ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE AND MOVE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO REFLECT THIS BAND OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE ANY T-STORM THREAT IN S SD/NEB AND IOWA.
I AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT TO REFLECT THE
DECREASED CHANCES...T WAS REMOVED FROM THE WX GRIDS. QPF WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.1" TO 0.4"
(HIGHEST IN THE N & E PART OF THE CWA). MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TYPICALLY WINDY
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SE TO THE TUNE OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. UP TO 40KTS OF
WIND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH REALIZING WINDS THIS STRONG IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH MAY INHIBIT MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT SAID...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS FSD AND ABR...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INCREASE TO A
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN POINTING AT A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDING ACROSS WESTERN IA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND EAU CLAIRE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THE LAYOUT AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH ON
THE 295K THETA SURFACE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS COVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER IOWA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY LOOKS NIL AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FA. SO WE WILL
HAVE TO MANUFACTURE OUR OWN FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER DRILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CUTTING
OFF THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS PROJECTED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WAA PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS ON TURNING
THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. A LOOK AT THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW SHOWS THAT A CUT-OFF HIGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A REX BLOCK (HIGH OVER LOW)
DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SECOND REX BLOCK FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE THE SYMMETRY IN THE
ANIMATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW. ANYWAY...THERE/S NO
WHERE FOR OUR UPPER LOW TO GO WITH THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT
OUR LOW IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. HENCE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD SEAL THE MONTH
OF APRIL BEING BELOW NORMAL HERE AT MSP. THIS WOULD BE 6 MONTHS IN
A ROW. ONE FINAL THING...WE HAD TO KEEP THE S WORD IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES WITH HIGH PRES MOVG ACRS THE REGION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING BUT WELL-ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE PLAINS. AS
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS ENE DURG THE DAY TMRW TWD THIS REGION...CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND -SHRA/-RA WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REGION BUT AM NOT
LOOKING FOR CONDS TO DROP MUCH BELOW UPPER-REGIONS OF MVFR... AND
NOT MUCH BEFORE TMRW EVE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CB/TS SINCE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE
TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
SETTLE ON SE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT A VERY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TMRW...EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 20-30KT RANGE TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW...THEN WILL LOOK
FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AHEAD OF THAT TIME...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W...GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING. MIDLVL CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG AND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. -SHRA/-RA WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MRNG AND BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT CHCS FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW VFR ARE FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER SHOWER HAPPENS TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT. MORE PREVALENT MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TMRW EVE.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NE TO SE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SE THRU TMRW.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15G25KT AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER...DURG THE DAY TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW.
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ047-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 230010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
710 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN IT
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BRING WITH IT THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER FURTHER WEDNESDAY
WITH AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND KBRD IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS THERE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  45  34  43 /   0  20  80  90
INL  30  54  36  45 /   0  10  80  90
BRD  38  49  41  52 /  10  70  90  70
HYR  28  53  38  50 /   0  50  90  90
ASX  27  48  36  47 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 222046
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LAG THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA
DRY UNTIL EARLY MORNING (~12Z). SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN FAE E MN AND
W WI). DESPITE THESE CHALLENGES...MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT PRECIP
DEVELOPS QUICKER... OVERCOMING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN WARM ADVECTION
CASES LIKE THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO E SD LATE. WARM ADVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP GENERATION ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE AND MOVE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN TO REFLECT THIS BAND OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE ANY T-STORM THREAT IN S SD/NEB AND IOWA.
I AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT TO REFLECT THE
DECREASED CHANCES...T WAS REMOVED FROM THE WX GRIDS. QPF WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.1" TO 0.4"
(HIGHEST IN THE N & E PART OF THE CWA). MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TYPICALLY WINDY
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE SE TO THE TUNE OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. UP TO 40KTS OF WIND IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE INTO GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE
WITH REALIZING WINDS THIS STRONG IS CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY INHIBIT
MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL. WITH THAT SAID...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFOS FSD AND ABR...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THIS HAZARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INCREASE TO A
LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BEEN POINTING AT A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDING ACROSS WESTERN IA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND EAU CLAIRE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THE LAYOUT AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
FARTHER NORTH...STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH ON
THE 295K THETA SURFACE ALONG WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS COVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER IOWA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH POP
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY LOOKS NIL AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FA. SO WE WILL HAVE
TO MANUFACTURE OUR OWN FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER DRILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CUTTING
OFF THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
IS PROJECTED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WAA PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS ON
TURNING THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. A
LOOK AT THE HEMISPHERIC FLOW SHOWS THAT A CUT-OFF HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A REX BLOCK (HIGH
OVER LOW) DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SECOND REX
BLOCK FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE THE
SYMMETRY IN THE ANIMATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW.
ANYWAY...THERE/S NO WHERE FOR OUR UPPER LOW TO GO WITH THE BLOCK
DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT OUR LOW IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HENCE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD SEAL THE MONTH OF APRIL BEING BELOW NORMAL HERE AT MSP.
THIS WOULD BE 6 MONTHS IN A ROW. ONE FINAL THING...WE HAD TO KEEP
THE S WORD IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD THERMAL PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN AT THE NOON HOUR TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP. A LARGE AND COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING 12-13Z AT KAXN. THE MOST PREVALENT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MN RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PD. SE WINDS WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY (GUSTS TO 25KT+)...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST BY MID-MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF MSP AS OF NOON...BUT BEFORE
THE FINAL PUSH OF THE EVE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE ENE BUT
ALSO DECREASE TO 7KT OR LESS. SE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING FIRST THING IN
THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF VFR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH 16-22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
RAIN... IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ047-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JCA







000
FXUS63 KDLH 222025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN IT
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO KBRD BUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  45  34  43 /   0  20  80  90
INL  30  54  36  45 /   0  10  80  90
BRD  38  49  41  52 /  10  70  90  70
HYR  28  53  38  50 /   0  50  90  90
ASX  27  48  36  47 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221813
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
113 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
AROUND THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DEFINED BY A DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK EMBEDDED S/W TRACKING SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
THAT COULD CLIP EXTREME NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW FLURRIES. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE TWO DISTURBANCES
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND CRANE LAKE TO TWO
HARBORS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE SUNNY TODAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
W/SW THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND SRN/SWRN MN TONIGHT AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY WED MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND AROUND THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STORM...AS
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE
MODELS...WITH GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHICH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT HAS SET UP FROM THERE TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MINNESOTA...AT FIRST JUST AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO CHANCE CATEGORY...EVEN AS
RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATION IS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED FOR THE BORDERLAND...EVEN
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM ON
THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
THE 850MB LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
MOVE IN ALOFT...AND BEGINNING A SHIFT BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME BACK AND FORTH ON
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  SINCE WE ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT ON
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ON SPECIFICS...BUT IT
DOES CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A MIXTURE OF COLD RAIN AND WET SLOPPY
SNOW.  HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...BUT SMALL CHANGES IN THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
PTYPE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE DRY AND COOL AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.  HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO KBRD BUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  45  34  43 /   0  30  80  70
INL  31  54  36  45 /   0  10  70  70
BRD  39  50  41  52 /  10  70  70  60
HYR  31  53  38  50 /   0  30  80  80
ASX  28  49  36  47 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 221731
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH THE
ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN BEING CHANCES FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION
PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS... KEEPING THINGS
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY... ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
WORK IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT... WORKING TO DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE... WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WEST
AFTER THE 06-09Z FOR SOME PCPN. AT THIS POINT... THINK ANY PCPN
WILL STAY WEST OF I-35 THROUGH 12Z. WOULD BE A BIT MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT PCPN DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS...
SINCE THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION SCENARIOS... BUT
THE LACK OF ANY APPARENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP THAT FROM OCCURRING. NEITHER MUCAPE... BEST LI...
SHOWALTER INDICES... NOR SIMPLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY VIA
850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E INDICATE ANY INSTABILITY WORKING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... SO TIMING OF PCPN SHOULD REALLY REMAIN
TIED TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SATURATION... WHICH LOOKS TO
ONLY IMPACT THE WESTERN THIRD-TO HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE FAR WEST BY 06... THEN BROUGHT
IT TO JUST WEST OF I-35 BY 12Z. WE WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TODAY... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH AROUND 825MB OR SO...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 60-65 OUT WEST... NEAR 60 IN THE
TWIN CITIES METRO... AND MID 50S IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS IS THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF OF AT LEAST ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW CLIPPING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT DURING THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE
SOME SOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL RETAIN THE LIKELY POPS...WEST
EARLY...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS THE BEST PERIOD TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...STRUGGLING TO WARM TO 50 IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONG
NATURE OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE GFS THIS GO ROUND.
THE ECMWF ACTUALLY DRIVES BELOW ZERO H85 TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO THERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE NEXT TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK. BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS MAY BE A BIT FAST IN DRIVING THE
TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...AND SPREAD
SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO OVERCOME THE LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF TH WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW COMBO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN AT THE NOON HOUR TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP. A LARGE AND COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING 12-13Z AT KAXN. THE MOST PREVALENT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MN RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PD. SE WINDS WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY (GUSTS TO 25KT+)...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST BY MID-MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF MSP AS OF NOON...BUT BEFORE
THE FINAL PUSH OF THE EVE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE ENE BUT
ALSO DECREASE TO 7KT OR LESS. SE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING FIRST THING IN
THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF VFR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH 16-22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
RAIN... IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JCA







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