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000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301229
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOWERING BELOW 3 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY AS A VORT MAX
DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WAVE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301229
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOWERING BELOW 3 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY AS A VORT MAX
DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WAVE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301229
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOWERING BELOW 3 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY AS A VORT MAX
DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WAVE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 300543
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  51  36  61 /  50  10   0  30
INL  28  49  33  63 /  50  10  10  20
BRD  35  58  42  68 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  29  54  33  65 /  30   0   0  40
ASX  28  47  33  61 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE/WL






000
FXUS63 KDLH 300543
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  51  36  61 /  50  10   0  30
INL  28  49  33  63 /  50  10  10  20
BRD  35  58  42  68 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  29  54  33  65 /  30   0   0  40
ASX  28  47  33  61 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300543
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  51  36  61 /  50  10   0  30
INL  28  49  33  63 /  50  10  10  20
BRD  35  58  42  68 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  29  54  33  65 /  30   0   0  40
ASX  28  47  33  61 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE/WL






000
FXUS63 KMPX 300347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 292356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 292348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH VFR FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 02Z WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
(070-090) WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF BKN-OVC 050-070 IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF KSTC AND KRNH AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BACKING
TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH VFR FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 02Z WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
(070-090) WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF BKN-OVC 050-070 IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF KSTC AND KRNH AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BACKING
TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 292348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH VFR FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 02Z WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
(070-090) WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF BKN-OVC 050-070 IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF KSTC AND KRNH AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BACKING
TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH VFR FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 02Z WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
(070-090) WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF BKN-OVC 050-070 IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF KSTC AND KRNH AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BACKING
TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH VFR FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 02Z WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
(070-090) WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF BKN-OVC 050-070 IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF KSTC AND KRNH AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BACKING
TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH VFR FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 02Z WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
(070-090) WILL PASS ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF BKN-OVC 050-070 IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF KSTC AND KRNH AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BACKING
TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WEST MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 292104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO
WI THIS AFTN. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SOME TO THE TUNE OF 40-50 MPH /INCLUDING MSP AIRPORT/...
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE MIXING DOWN LLJ
ALOFT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI
AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT
SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THRU TMRW MRNG. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW
ALOFT. VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE COMES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED INTO NRN MN THAN
IN THE MPX CWFA...SO THE ONLY POPS THAT REMAIN WILL BE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA...FOR LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-
MID 30S OVERNIGHT...HIGHS TMRW WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE CWFA AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

EC/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAD THE BEST
FORECAST FOR TODAYS SYSTEM WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE
MOISTURE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE MAIN AREA DEVELOPING SE OF MPX WHICH SEEM
LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL STRONG CAP AND LOWER DEW PTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT 85H WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEW PTS WILL LIKELY RISE AS
WELL. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE EC HAVE DEW PTS NEARLY 55 DEGREES IN
FAR SW MN WED AFTN. THE GFS IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 55-60 DEGREE DEW
PTS AS FAR NORTH AS KMKT. IF THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
FORECAST...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTN AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
MLCAPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF SFC CAPE HAVE NEARLY 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
LATEST GFS RUN...WITH THE EC A CLOSE SECOND WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF /8.0 C/KM FROM 70-50H/...WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER FREEZING LEVEL. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER WX WILL DEVELOP AS THE MEAN FLOW
BECOMES MORE WNW AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MORE W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE IN THE 50S. SO EVEN BLW NORMAL TEMPS STILL MEAN HIGHS ABV
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 292014
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292014
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292014
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292014
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  49  32  51 /   0  50  50  10
INL  27  48  28  49 /   0  60  50  10
BRD  31  59  35  58 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  28  53  29  54 /   0  30  30   0
ASX  30  51  28  47 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 291817
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF LIQUID...
HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND
ADVISORY EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS
H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH
DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE
DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND
0-3KM SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH
A TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE
LAG THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO
AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP
WILL COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 291817
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF LIQUID...
HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND
ADVISORY EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS
H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH
DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE
DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND
0-3KM SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH
A TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE
LAG THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO
AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP
WILL COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 291817
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF LIQUID...
HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND
ADVISORY EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS
H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH
DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE
DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND
0-3KM SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH
A TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE
LAG THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO
AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP
WILL COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 291817
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF LIQUID...
HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND
ADVISORY EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS
H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH
DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE
DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND
0-3KM SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH
A TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE
LAG THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO
AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP
WILL COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE EFFICIENT PROGRESS FROM W TO E ACRS THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TDA...WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND INCRS
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT. FOR THE TAF
SITES NOT YET OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WHICH ATTM IS
SOLELY THE WI TAF SITES...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO POSSIBLY IFR
VSBY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE AFTN. FOR THE MN TAF SITES...THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR KAXN-KRWF...AND WILL THEN OCCUR SHORTLY THEREAFTER
EARLY THIS AFTN FOR KSTC-KMSP. SKIES WILL THEN REMAIN CLR
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN MID-TO-LATE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...35-40KT WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP BUT
HAVE NOW DROPPED TO 15-25KT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TO TAP WINDS ALOFT...WILL
LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO INCRS TO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN INTO THE EVE BEFORE DECOUPLING ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO SETTLE
DOWN TO ARND 10 KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY ARND 22Z AND REMAIN
CLR OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN N OF MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>051-
     054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-
     074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 /  90   0  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  70   0  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  80   0  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90   0  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 /  90  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 /  90   0  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  70   0  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  80   0  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90   0  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 /  90  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 /  90   0  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  70   0  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  80   0  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90   0  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 /  90  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 /  90   0  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  70   0  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  80   0  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90   0  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 /  90  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 /  90   0  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  70   0  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  80   0  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90   0  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 /  90  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 /  90   0  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  70   0  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  80   0  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90   0  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 /  90  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 291228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
BANDS OF RAIN /WELL MOSTLY RAIN/. THE WESTERN BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TODAY AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES PRODUCING 2-4 HOURS OF
MVFR. WINDS WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

KMSP...

LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT IS PRECIP FREE FOR AWHILE BUT EVENTUALLY A
AND OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLEET/WET SNOW FLAKE REPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND BATCH SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. A SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...SITES UPSTREAM OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST /220-240 DEGREES/
TO NORTHWEST /310 DEGREES/ IN ABOUT 1 HOUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 291228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
BANDS OF RAIN /WELL MOSTLY RAIN/. THE WESTERN BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TODAY AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES PRODUCING 2-4 HOURS OF
MVFR. WINDS WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

KMSP...

LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT IS PRECIP FREE FOR AWHILE BUT EVENTUALLY A
AND OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLEET/WET SNOW FLAKE REPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND BATCH SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. A SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...SITES UPSTREAM OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST /220-240 DEGREES/
TO NORTHWEST /310 DEGREES/ IN ABOUT 1 HOUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 291228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
BANDS OF RAIN /WELL MOSTLY RAIN/. THE WESTERN BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TODAY AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES PRODUCING 2-4 HOURS OF
MVFR. WINDS WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

KMSP...

LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT IS PRECIP FREE FOR AWHILE BUT EVENTUALLY A
AND OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLEET/WET SNOW FLAKE REPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND BATCH SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. A SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...SITES UPSTREAM OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST /220-240 DEGREES/
TO NORTHWEST /310 DEGREES/ IN ABOUT 1 HOUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 291228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
BANDS OF RAIN /WELL MOSTLY RAIN/. THE WESTERN BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TODAY AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES PRODUCING 2-4 HOURS OF
MVFR. WINDS WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

KMSP...

LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT IS PRECIP FREE FOR AWHILE BUT EVENTUALLY A
AND OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLEET/WET SNOW FLAKE REPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND BATCH SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. A SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...SITES UPSTREAM OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST /220-240 DEGREES/
TO NORTHWEST /310 DEGREES/ IN ABOUT 1 HOUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 291031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
531 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 291031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
531 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 291031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
531 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ARE THE TOP STORY TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE - 0.05" OF
LIQUID...HOWEVER...RAPID DRYING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS IS A HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE WITH GOOD FORCING...LARGE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE FEATURE. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER EAST BECAUSE THE MSLP RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACTUALLY MAXIMIZES OVER CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NEAR 50KTS AT THE TOP. THIS SHOULD END UP A SOLID WIND ADVISORY
EVENT. WE EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SLOWLY RELAX. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GENERALLY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIP TO THOSE REGIONS. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF
10C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GEM
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH DOESNT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THEREFORE IS THE DRIEST OF THE 3 MODELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS GENERATES THE MOST PRECIP.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...SPECIFICALLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE LOWER END OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SPECTRUM...0-1 AND 0-3KM
SHEAR APPROACHES 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH A
TONGUE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
RATHER MEAGER..SINCE H500 HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LAG
THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY BY ABOUT 12HRS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
CIN...AND GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN PAST EVENTS...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
OVERDONE BY THE FORECAST MODELS 2-4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SO AM
NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF A LINE OF PRECIP WILL
COME TO FRUITION. THE TIME-SHIFTED HOPWRF...WHICH USES GFS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME WILL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ042-043-049>051-057>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-
     093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 290931
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290931
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290931
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290931
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  30  50  31 / 100  10  50  20
INL  45  28  50  30 /  80  10  50  30
BRD  47  31  59  33 /  70  10  30  10
HYR  46  29  52  30 /  90  10  30  20
ASX  47  31  52  29 / 100  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290546
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXITS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  50  32  49 /  10  30  10  10
INL  27  49  30  50 /  10  40  30  10
BRD  31  57  34  56 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  28  52  32  52 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  30  51  31  48 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 290546
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXITS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  50  32  49 /  10  30  10  10
INL  27  49  30  50 /  10  40  30  10
BRD  31  57  34  56 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  28  52  32  52 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  30  51  31  48 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290546
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXITS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  50  32  49 /  10  30  10  10
INL  27  49  30  50 /  10  40  30  10
BRD  31  57  34  56 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  28  52  32  52 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  30  51  31  48 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 290405
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 290405
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290405
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290405
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR TIMING CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. STILL APPEARS TO COME IN TWO
STAGES...08Z-12Z AND THEN FROM 14Z-19Z. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AND COME BKN-OVC012-015 WAS
INSERTED. THREE CONCERNS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM
KRWF TO KSTC ON EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS NEAR 2K FEET IS SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS NOTED AND WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FORECAST NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE WI TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE
ON PTYPE NOT HIGH...KEPT IT TO A MIX OF JUST RA AND SN. THE FINAL
CONCERN IS THE STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR NEAR 30 KNOTS
WINDS FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND WESTERN WI.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS WERE RAISED A LITTLE AT KMSP AND KRNH.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A FEW KNOTS...MAINLY IN
THE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 290125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 282353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE UNIFIED ON DRIVING A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IT BEGINS AROUND 05Z AT KAXN...09Z AT KMSP AND 11Z AT KEAU AND
LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PTYPE IS AN ISSUE AT THE WI TAF SITES
WITH SUCH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. KEPT IT TO RASN
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. A
SECOND NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SITES IN THE MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND BAND OF PRECIP...WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. RAISED WINDS
SOME AT KAXN WITH 31028G40KTS AFTER 14Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD DOWN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
EASTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING.

KMSP...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-12Z PERIOD WITH A
SECOND CHANCE FROM 15Z-18Z. IN BETWEEN THESE PERIODS...CEILINGS
MAY DROP INTO MVFR TERRITORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IF THE
LOWER CEILINGS DO DEVELOP THEY WOULD BE AROUND 020. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 15-25 KNOTS THEN BECOME WEST
AFTER 15Z AND NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE UNIFIED ON DRIVING A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IT BEGINS AROUND 05Z AT KAXN...09Z AT KMSP AND 11Z AT KEAU AND
LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PTYPE IS AN ISSUE AT THE WI TAF SITES
WITH SUCH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. KEPT IT TO RASN
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. A
SECOND NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SITES IN THE MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND BAND OF PRECIP...WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. RAISED WINDS
SOME AT KAXN WITH 31028G40KTS AFTER 14Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD DOWN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
EASTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING.

KMSP...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-12Z PERIOD WITH A
SECOND CHANCE FROM 15Z-18Z. IN BETWEEN THESE PERIODS...CEILINGS
MAY DROP INTO MVFR TERRITORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IF THE
LOWER CEILINGS DO DEVELOP THEY WOULD BE AROUND 020. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 15-25 KNOTS THEN BECOME WEST
AFTER 15Z AND NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 282353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE UNIFIED ON DRIVING A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IT BEGINS AROUND 05Z AT KAXN...09Z AT KMSP AND 11Z AT KEAU AND
LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PTYPE IS AN ISSUE AT THE WI TAF SITES
WITH SUCH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. KEPT IT TO RASN
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. A
SECOND NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SITES IN THE MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND BAND OF PRECIP...WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. RAISED WINDS
SOME AT KAXN WITH 31028G40KTS AFTER 14Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD DOWN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
EASTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING.

KMSP...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-12Z PERIOD WITH A
SECOND CHANCE FROM 15Z-18Z. IN BETWEEN THESE PERIODS...CEILINGS
MAY DROP INTO MVFR TERRITORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IF THE
LOWER CEILINGS DO DEVELOP THEY WOULD BE AROUND 020. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 15-25 KNOTS THEN BECOME WEST
AFTER 15Z AND NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 282353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE UNIFIED ON DRIVING A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IT BEGINS AROUND 05Z AT KAXN...09Z AT KMSP AND 11Z AT KEAU AND
LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PTYPE IS AN ISSUE AT THE WI TAF SITES
WITH SUCH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. KEPT IT TO RASN
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. A
SECOND NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SITES IN THE MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND BAND OF PRECIP...WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. RAISED WINDS
SOME AT KAXN WITH 31028G40KTS AFTER 14Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD DOWN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
EASTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING.

KMSP...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-12Z PERIOD WITH A
SECOND CHANCE FROM 15Z-18Z. IN BETWEEN THESE PERIODS...CEILINGS
MAY DROP INTO MVFR TERRITORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IF THE
LOWER CEILINGS DO DEVELOP THEY WOULD BE AROUND 020. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 15-25 KNOTS THEN BECOME WEST
AFTER 15Z AND NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 282347 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282347 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282347 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 282347 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 282345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HERR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 282345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HERR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HERR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 282345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HERR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKEND BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TOUNGE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS ABOUT
08Z. WITH THE FROPA...LOOK FOR MVFR VSBYS WITH -RA...MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME -FZRA AT HYR AND HAVE A TEMPO FROM 10Z TO 13Z. GUSTY SFC
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA. LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 02Z TO 10Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKEND BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TOUNGE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS ABOUT
08Z. WITH THE FROPA...LOOK FOR MVFR VSBYS WITH -RA...MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME -FZRA AT HYR AND HAVE A TEMPO FROM 10Z TO 13Z. GUSTY SFC
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA. LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 02Z TO 10Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKEND BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TOUNGE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS ABOUT
08Z. WITH THE FROPA...LOOK FOR MVFR VSBYS WITH -RA...MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME -FZRA AT HYR AND HAVE A TEMPO FROM 10Z TO 13Z. GUSTY SFC
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA. LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 02Z TO 10Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 282050
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WHETHER MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE. FIRST...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION MAYBE SOONER BY AN HR OR TWO FOR KAXN BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD BETWEEN 6-12Z ACROSS MN...AND INTO WC WI. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE SHRA BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
PERIOD OR PROB30. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE 2.0K CIGS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM 12-18Z AS CAA
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 30 KTS ACROSS ALL OF MPX TAF
SITES IN MN...AND GUST OVER 25 KTS IN WC WI IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COLD FRONT.

KMSP...ONLY CHGS TO THIS TAF PERIOD IS TO INTRODUCE SCT020 ONCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BETWEEN 9-12Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHRA AS THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THRU...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF OR UNDER 15 MINS AND BEFORE 12Z. LOW
CONFIDENCES ON MVFR CIGS /2.0K/ SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN AS GUSTS DEVELOP THIS AFTN FROM THE SSE...THEN SHIFT
TO THE SW-W-NW SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY BE
ALTERED SOME IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS AS WE GET A BETTER FEEL ON
HOW STRONG THE GUSTS BECOME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SW...BECOMING S 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S TO SW 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT



000
FXUS63 KMPX 282050
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. FIRST...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MN THIS EVENING...WILL THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN IN WC WI. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS
GUST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT
IN SW/WC MN...AND SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN
NEARLY 50 KTS ABV THIS BOUNDARY LAYER IN WC/SW/SC MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WC WI REMAINED VERY CLOSE TO 0C NEARLY
5-8K ABV THE SFC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN MPX CWA DOES THE SOUNDING GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
IN THE LOWEST 5K AND SEE IF ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DOES
THE SOUNDING SATURATE TO HAVE SLEET/SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO LIMIT ALL SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.
I DON/T EXPECT ANY ICING PROBLEMS DUE TO VERY MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS WHICH ARE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. TOO MANY SCENARIOS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
CHANCE OF ALL FOUR TYPES. IN ADDITION...QPF AMTS ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ICING PROBLEMS...PLUS TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV
FREEZING BY 8- 9 AM.

THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 6-15Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE AXIS/ADVECTION. STILL...QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LIMITED PWAT VALUES.

AS FOR WIND...STRONGEST WINDS ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OR BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. AFT 6 AM...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
THE W-NW. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THE MAIN
DILEMMA IS WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MORNING TO GENERATE 50 MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
OF WC/SW/SC MN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY BASED ON SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH DURING THE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHC/S WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF EC MN
MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THRU THE EARLY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE REGION SUN...A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG NW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG UNDER SOLID NW FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRES CENTER LOOKS TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE DAY MON INTO MON EVE...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE MAY
VERY BRIEFLY BE SOME -SHSN MIXED IN MON MRNG AND AGAIN MON EVE...
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD...ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE INTO WED. UNDERNEATH IT WILL BE SFC
HIGH PRES FOR TUE...ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS MON-TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST. GOING INTO WED...THE CWFA WILL
FIND ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
SYSTEM AS A WMFNT LIFTS TO THE N AND A CDFNT TRUDGES THRU THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON WED TO CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THIS WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME...THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA WED AFTN. THE STRONG SLY SURGE WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN
THE WARMER AIR BUT ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP NORTH
TO THE TUNE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S...RAISING MUCAPE
VALUES TO ARND 1000 J/KG WITH A BREAKING DOWN OF CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT
WE ARE GETTING INTO SPRING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THRU...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP OF
TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS WILL BE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN PRONOUNCED
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL PUSH THE INSTABILITY OUT OF THE REGION WED NIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND STARTS UP NOTICEABLE CAA THU MRNG WHICH WILL LAST THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...EACH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...BUT ENOUGH WHERE AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...SO THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WHETHER MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE. FIRST...TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION MAYBE SOONER BY AN HR OR TWO FOR KAXN BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD BETWEEN 6-12Z ACROSS MN...AND INTO WC WI. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE SHRA BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
PERIOD OR PROB30. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE 2.0K CIGS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM 12-18Z AS CAA
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 30 KTS ACROSS ALL OF MPX TAF
SITES IN MN...AND GUST OVER 25 KTS IN WC WI IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COLD FRONT.

KMSP...ONLY CHGS TO THIS TAF PERIOD IS TO INTRODUCE SCT020 ONCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BETWEEN 9-12Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHRA AS THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THRU...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF OR UNDER 15 MINS AND BEFORE 12Z. LOW
CONFIDENCES ON MVFR CIGS /2.0K/ SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN AS GUSTS DEVELOP THIS AFTN FROM THE SSE...THEN SHIFT
TO THE SW-W-NW SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY BE
ALTERED SOME IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS AS WE GET A BETTER FEEL ON
HOW STRONG THE GUSTS BECOME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SW...BECOMING S 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S TO SW 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-
     058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ064-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




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