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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310311 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
911 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  10  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310311 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
911 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  10  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310037 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$





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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302321
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUIET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PERCIP. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS QUITE WARM WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50 TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
REALLY MORE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...CLEARING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A STRATUS DECK COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO -10C TO -12C BY
00-06Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOCUS THIS SHIFT IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLICATED FORECAST
SITUATION IS EVOLVING AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE DETAILS WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY HOW THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
MERGE...AND WHEN. THE MODELS IN THE PAST HAVE STRUGGLED IN
PROPERLY HANDLING THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION AT TIMES...AND MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL COME WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS WAS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SO INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WE`LL GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER.
WHERE I LACK CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES BECAUSE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL NEED TO
ACCELERATE AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEFORE ITS EAST OF
IOWA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN WAVE IS STILL LIKELY TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...BUT WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS. IF THE MERGE CAN HAPPEN BEFORE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAR EAST...AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD
BE HIGHER DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. PLENTY
OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW
GENERALLY WENT FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS FORECAST LEANED
MOSTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z NAM ALSO CAME IN
AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA FROM THE 12Z RUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER MIDWEST REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP
LIGHT SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH US BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OVERALL IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AVIATION-WISE...
ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SUBSIDENCE
WORKS IN BEHIND THAT... AND FOR A TIME IT LOOKS TO TRAP THE
MOISTURE AND BRING A PERIOD OF 010-020 CEILINGS TO THE AREA.
EXACTLY WHEN THAT OCCURS AND HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THEY PERSIST
IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT... TWEAKED THINGS TO BE A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL AND LATER DEPARTURE
OF THE LOW CEILINGS.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND
DEPICTED IN THE TAF... BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
CEILING HEIGHTS. COULD EASILY SEE ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF LOWER
CEILINGS VARY BY +/- 3 HOURS FROM FORECAST VALUES... WITH CEILING
HEIGHTS POSSIBLY DIFFERENT BY +/-005 FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT SNOW... IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EARLY WITH LIGHT
SNOW. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 302321
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUIET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PERCIP. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS QUITE WARM WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50 TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
REALLY MORE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...CLEARING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A STRATUS DECK COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO -10C TO -12C BY
00-06Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOCUS THIS SHIFT IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLICATED FORECAST
SITUATION IS EVOLVING AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE DETAILS WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY HOW THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
MERGE...AND WHEN. THE MODELS IN THE PAST HAVE STRUGGLED IN
PROPERLY HANDLING THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION AT TIMES...AND MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL COME WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS WAS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SO INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WE`LL GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER.
WHERE I LACK CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES BECAUSE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL NEED TO
ACCELERATE AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEFORE ITS EAST OF
IOWA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN WAVE IS STILL LIKELY TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...BUT WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS. IF THE MERGE CAN HAPPEN BEFORE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAR EAST...AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD
BE HIGHER DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. PLENTY
OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW
GENERALLY WENT FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS FORECAST LEANED
MOSTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z NAM ALSO CAME IN
AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA FROM THE 12Z RUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER MIDWEST REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP
LIGHT SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH US BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OVERALL IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AVIATION-WISE...
ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SUBSIDENCE
WORKS IN BEHIND THAT... AND FOR A TIME IT LOOKS TO TRAP THE
MOISTURE AND BRING A PERIOD OF 010-020 CEILINGS TO THE AREA.
EXACTLY WHEN THAT OCCURS AND HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THEY PERSIST
IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT... TWEAKED THINGS TO BE A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL AND LATER DEPARTURE
OF THE LOW CEILINGS.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND
DEPICTED IN THE TAF... BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
CEILING HEIGHTS. COULD EASILY SEE ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF LOWER
CEILINGS VARY BY +/- 3 HOURS FROM FORECAST VALUES... WITH CEILING
HEIGHTS POSSIBLY DIFFERENT BY +/-005 FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT SNOW... IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EARLY WITH LIGHT
SNOW. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 302321
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUIET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PERCIP. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS QUITE WARM WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50 TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
REALLY MORE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...CLEARING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A STRATUS DECK COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO -10C TO -12C BY
00-06Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOCUS THIS SHIFT IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLICATED FORECAST
SITUATION IS EVOLVING AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE DETAILS WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY HOW THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
MERGE...AND WHEN. THE MODELS IN THE PAST HAVE STRUGGLED IN
PROPERLY HANDLING THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION AT TIMES...AND MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL COME WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS WAS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SO INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WE`LL GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER.
WHERE I LACK CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES BECAUSE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL NEED TO
ACCELERATE AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEFORE ITS EAST OF
IOWA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN WAVE IS STILL LIKELY TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...BUT WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS. IF THE MERGE CAN HAPPEN BEFORE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAR EAST...AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD
BE HIGHER DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. PLENTY
OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW
GENERALLY WENT FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS FORECAST LEANED
MOSTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z NAM ALSO CAME IN
AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA FROM THE 12Z RUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER MIDWEST REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP
LIGHT SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH US BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OVERALL IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AVIATION-WISE...
ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SUBSIDENCE
WORKS IN BEHIND THAT... AND FOR A TIME IT LOOKS TO TRAP THE
MOISTURE AND BRING A PERIOD OF 010-020 CEILINGS TO THE AREA.
EXACTLY WHEN THAT OCCURS AND HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THEY PERSIST
IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT... TWEAKED THINGS TO BE A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL AND LATER DEPARTURE
OF THE LOW CEILINGS.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND
DEPICTED IN THE TAF... BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
CEILING HEIGHTS. COULD EASILY SEE ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF LOWER
CEILINGS VARY BY +/- 3 HOURS FROM FORECAST VALUES... WITH CEILING
HEIGHTS POSSIBLY DIFFERENT BY +/-005 FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT SNOW... IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EARLY WITH LIGHT
SNOW. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 302321
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUIET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PERCIP. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS QUITE WARM WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50 TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
REALLY MORE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...CLEARING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A STRATUS DECK COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO -10C TO -12C BY
00-06Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOCUS THIS SHIFT IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLICATED FORECAST
SITUATION IS EVOLVING AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE DETAILS WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY HOW THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
MERGE...AND WHEN. THE MODELS IN THE PAST HAVE STRUGGLED IN
PROPERLY HANDLING THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION AT TIMES...AND MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL COME WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS WAS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SO INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WE`LL GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER.
WHERE I LACK CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES BECAUSE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL NEED TO
ACCELERATE AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEFORE ITS EAST OF
IOWA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN WAVE IS STILL LIKELY TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...BUT WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS. IF THE MERGE CAN HAPPEN BEFORE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAR EAST...AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD
BE HIGHER DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. PLENTY
OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW
GENERALLY WENT FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS FORECAST LEANED
MOSTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z NAM ALSO CAME IN
AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA FROM THE 12Z RUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER MIDWEST REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP
LIGHT SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH US BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OVERALL IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AVIATION-WISE...
ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SUBSIDENCE
WORKS IN BEHIND THAT... AND FOR A TIME IT LOOKS TO TRAP THE
MOISTURE AND BRING A PERIOD OF 010-020 CEILINGS TO THE AREA.
EXACTLY WHEN THAT OCCURS AND HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THEY PERSIST
IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT... TWEAKED THINGS TO BE A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL AND LATER DEPARTURE
OF THE LOW CEILINGS.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND
DEPICTED IN THE TAF... BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
CEILING HEIGHTS. COULD EASILY SEE ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF LOWER
CEILINGS VARY BY +/- 3 HOURS FROM FORECAST VALUES... WITH CEILING
HEIGHTS POSSIBLY DIFFERENT BY +/-005 FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT SNOW... IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EARLY WITH LIGHT
SNOW. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 302157
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUIET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PERCIP. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS QUITE WARM WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50 TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
REALLY MORE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...CLEARING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A STRATUS DECK COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO -10C TO -12C BY
00-06Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOCUS THIS SHIFT IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLICATED FORECAST
SITUATION IS EVOLVING AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE DETAILS WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY HOW THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
MERGE...AND WHEN. THE MODELS IN THE PAST HAVE STRUGGLED IN
PROPERLY HANDLING THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION AT TIMES...AND MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL COME WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS WAS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SO INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WE`LL GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER.
WHERE I LACK CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES BECAUSE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL NEED TO
ACCELERATE AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEFORE ITS EAST OF
IOWA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN WAVE IS STILL LIKELY TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...BUT WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS. IF THE MERGE CAN HAPPEN BEFORE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAR EAST...AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD
BE HIGHER DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. PLENTY
OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW
GENERALLY WENT FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS FORECAST LEANED
MOSTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z NAM ALSO CAME IN
AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA FROM THE 12Z RUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER MIDWEST REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP
LIGHT SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH US BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

BESIDES A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN MN...WE EXPECT MOST
AREA TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEELING ABOUT WHEN/IF TO
CLEAR THE MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A LOT OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR SN POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5 TO 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 302157
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUIET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PERCIP. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS QUITE WARM WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50 TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
REALLY MORE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...CLEARING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A STRATUS DECK COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO -10C TO -12C BY
00-06Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOCUS THIS SHIFT IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLICATED FORECAST
SITUATION IS EVOLVING AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE DETAILS WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY HOW THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
MERGE...AND WHEN. THE MODELS IN THE PAST HAVE STRUGGLED IN
PROPERLY HANDLING THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION AT TIMES...AND MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL COME WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS WAS A SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SO INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WE`LL GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER.
WHERE I LACK CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES BECAUSE THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL NEED TO
ACCELERATE AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEFORE ITS EAST OF
IOWA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN WAVE IS STILL LIKELY TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...BUT WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS. IF THE MERGE CAN HAPPEN BEFORE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAR EAST...AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD
BE HIGHER DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. PLENTY
OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW
GENERALLY WENT FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS FORECAST LEANED
MOSTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z NAM ALSO CAME IN
AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA FROM THE 12Z RUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER MIDWEST REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP
LIGHT SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH US BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

BESIDES A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN MN...WE EXPECT MOST
AREA TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEELING ABOUT WHEN/IF TO
CLEAR THE MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A LOT OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR SN POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5 TO 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 302145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 302145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1214 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  10  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  30   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1214 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  10  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  30   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1214 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  10  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  30   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1214 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  10  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  30   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 301803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

BESIDES A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN MN...WE EXPECT MOST
AREA TO REMAIN VFR TRHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEELING ABOUT WHEN/IF TO
CLEAR THE MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A LOT OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR SN POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

BESIDES A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN MN...WE EXPECT MOST
AREA TO REMAIN VFR TRHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEELING ABOUT WHEN/IF TO
CLEAR THE MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A LOT OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR SN POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 301140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME CONCERN WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MN...AND DRIFTING TO THE E/NE ACROSS WC AND INTO CENTRAL/EC MN
DURING THE DAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE NORMAL DIURNAL MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE CLDS TO DISSIPATE AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S/SW. ONLY KAXN/KRWF WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC OF MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 18Z. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE S/SE...INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW/W/NW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COUPLED WITH CAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP.
LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS THRU 18Z WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SE
ARND 5-8 KTS BY 18Z. DID INTRODUCE SCT020 THIS AFTN BASED ON SOME
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY
MVFR CIGS THRU 12Z/31. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS
EVENING...THEN NW/NNW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS CAA
INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVENING...MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND N/NNE AT 10KT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN EARLY. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT



000
FXUS63 KMPX 301140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME CONCERN WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MN...AND DRIFTING TO THE E/NE ACROSS WC AND INTO CENTRAL/EC MN
DURING THE DAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE NORMAL DIURNAL MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE CLDS TO DISSIPATE AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S/SW. ONLY KAXN/KRWF WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC OF MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 18Z. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE S/SE...INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW/W/NW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COUPLED WITH CAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP.
LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS THRU 18Z WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SE
ARND 5-8 KTS BY 18Z. DID INTRODUCE SCT020 THIS AFTN BASED ON SOME
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY
MVFR CIGS THRU 12Z/31. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS
EVENING...THEN NW/NNW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS CAA
INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVENING...MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND N/NNE AT 10KT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN EARLY. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 301111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
511 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT INL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SITES DETERIORATING
TO IFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
511 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT INL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SITES DETERIORATING
TO IFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KMPX 300948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300948
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KDLH 300921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN OCNL CIG BLO BKN030 AT KDLH AND KHYR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFT 18Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 300539 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN OCNL CIG BLO BKN030 AT KDLH AND KHYR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFT 18Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300539 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN OCNL CIG BLO BKN030 AT KDLH AND KHYR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFT 18Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 300452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 300452
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. HIGH-END MIDLVL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVE...
RESULTING IN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME LGT/VRBL BY DAYBREAK...THEN SWING ARND TO S AND SW LATER
FRI AFTN AND EVE...ALL WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KDLH 300223 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300223 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300223 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300223 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 292358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY COME IN-AND-OUT OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY LATE
EVENING AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THEN
RETURN BY LATE MRNG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TMRW AFTN AND TMRW EVE. NW WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN THRU THE REST OF THE EVE HRS...THEN GO LGT/VRBL AROUND
DAYBREAK BEFORE SWINGING ARND TO SLY BY TMRW AFTN WITH SPEEDS AOB
10 KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. BKN SKIES
EARLY ON WILL SCATTER OUT THRU THIS EVE...EVEN BECOMING CLR
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MIDLVL CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 292358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY COME IN-AND-OUT OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY LATE
EVENING AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THEN
RETURN BY LATE MRNG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TMRW AFTN AND TMRW EVE. NW WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN THRU THE REST OF THE EVE HRS...THEN GO LGT/VRBL AROUND
DAYBREAK BEFORE SWINGING ARND TO SLY BY TMRW AFTN WITH SPEEDS AOB
10 KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. BKN SKIES
EARLY ON WILL SCATTER OUT THRU THIS EVE...EVEN BECOMING CLR
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MIDLVL CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 292358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY COME IN-AND-OUT OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY LATE
EVENING AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THEN
RETURN BY LATE MRNG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TMRW AFTN AND TMRW EVE. NW WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN THRU THE REST OF THE EVE HRS...THEN GO LGT/VRBL AROUND
DAYBREAK BEFORE SWINGING ARND TO SLY BY TMRW AFTN WITH SPEEDS AOB
10 KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. BKN SKIES
EARLY ON WILL SCATTER OUT THRU THIS EVE...EVEN BECOMING CLR
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MIDLVL CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 292358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA.
CLOSER TO HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO COULD SEE THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. WE`LL ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
NORTHERN WAVE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM
UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
THERE...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HELD ON TO
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ABLE TO INITIALIZE ALL SITES WITH VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY COME IN-AND-OUT OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY LATE
EVENING AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. MID-AND-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THEN
RETURN BY LATE MRNG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TMRW AFTN AND TMRW EVE. NW WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN THRU THE REST OF THE EVE HRS...THEN GO LGT/VRBL AROUND
DAYBREAK BEFORE SWINGING ARND TO SLY BY TMRW AFTN WITH SPEEDS AOB
10 KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. BKN SKIES
EARLY ON WILL SCATTER OUT THRU THIS EVE...EVEN BECOMING CLR
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MIDLVL CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 292336 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292336 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292336 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292336 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 292204
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA. CLOSER TO
HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO COULD SEE
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BUFFALO
RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL NEXT
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.  THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WE`LL
ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS NORTHERN WAVE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES
EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  POPS REMAIN IN PLACE THERE...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH.  THE ECMWF HELD ON TO A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM EXISTS.  IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292204
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA. CLOSER TO
HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO COULD SEE
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BUFFALO
RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL NEXT
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.  THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WE`LL
ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS NORTHERN WAVE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES
EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  POPS REMAIN IN PLACE THERE...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH.  THE ECMWF HELD ON TO A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM EXISTS.  IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292204
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA. CLOSER TO
HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO COULD SEE
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BUFFALO
RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL NEXT
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.  THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WE`LL
ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS NORTHERN WAVE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES
EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  POPS REMAIN IN PLACE THERE...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH.  THE ECMWF HELD ON TO A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM EXISTS.  IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 292204
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA. CLOSER TO
HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO COULD SEE
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BUFFALO
RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL NEXT
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.  THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WE`LL
ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS NORTHERN WAVE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES
EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  POPS REMAIN IN PLACE THERE...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH.  THE ECMWF HELD ON TO A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM EXISTS.  IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 291816
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THEN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND AND TURNING COLDER.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT INTENSITY ECHOES MOVING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW.  THE TREND ON THE RAP HAS BEEN
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME -SN OR UP.
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WILL WORD
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ADV TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING AS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MN AS
WELL.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERALL AFTER 18Z AND BECOME LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR/FLEETING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FORESEEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST OVER WISCONSIN...AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WEST BRINGS HIGHS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
IN PROGGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS AN INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOWFALL WITH INCH OR SO ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH...BUT THE MAIN /SOUTHERN STREAM/ SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL INEVITABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND SUB-ZERO LOWS OCCURRING NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DIP LOWER THAN -15 TO -20 ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH 20-30
POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 291816
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THEN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND AND TURNING COLDER.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT INTENSITY ECHOES MOVING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW.  THE TREND ON THE RAP HAS BEEN
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME -SN OR UP.
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WILL WORD
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ADV TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING AS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MN AS
WELL.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERALL AFTER 18Z AND BECOME LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR/FLEETING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FORESEEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST OVER WISCONSIN...AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WEST BRINGS HIGHS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
IN PROGGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS AN INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOWFALL WITH INCH OR SO ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH...BUT THE MAIN /SOUTHERN STREAM/ SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL INEVITABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND SUB-ZERO LOWS OCCURRING NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DIP LOWER THAN -15 TO -20 ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH 20-30
POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291751 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  -6  16   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  20 -15  16  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  26  -1  21   9 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  30  -9  17   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  30  -1  16  10 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KMPX 291146
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THEN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND AND TURNING COLDER.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT INTENSITY ECHOES MOVING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW.  THE TREND ON THE RAP HAS BEEN
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME -SN OR UP.
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WILL WORD
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ADV TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING AS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MN AS
WELL.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERALL AFTER 18Z AND BECOME LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR/FLEETING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FORESEEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST OVER WISCONSIN...AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WEST BRINGS HIGHS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
IN PROGGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS AN INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOWFALL WITH INCH OR SO ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH...BUT THE MAIN /SOUTHERN STREAM/ SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL INEVITABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND SUB-ZERO LOWS OCCURRING NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DIP LOWER THAN -15 TO -20 ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH 20-30
POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT ENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN AN
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THEN INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURNING LATE. STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40KTS OUT IN
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY EVENING.

KMSP...FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 22Z.
THEN BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME MID HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. STRONG NW
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTERNOON...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN SAT NIGHT. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-066>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-048-054>057-
     064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KDLH 291110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM






000
FXUS63 KMPX 290949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THEN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND AND TURNING COLDER.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT INTENSITY ECHOES MOVING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW.  THE TREND ON THE RAP HAS BEEN
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME -SN OR UP.
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WILL WORD
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ADV TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING AS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MN AS
WELL.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERALL AFTER 18Z AND BECOME LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR/FLEETING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FORESEEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST OVER WISCONSIN...AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WEST BRINGS HIGHS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
IN PROGGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS AN INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOWFALL WITH INCH OR SO ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH...BUT THE MAIN /SOUTHERN STREAM/ SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL INEVITABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND SUB-ZERO LOWS OCCURRING NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DIP LOWER THAN -15 TO -20 ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH 20-30
POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LARGE AREA OF -FZDZ SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TO THE E AS CDFNT MAKES
PROGRESS THRU THE CWFA. THIS IS ALLOWING WRN MN TO HAVE CEILINGS
RISE FROM IFR RANGE TO MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY INCRS TO VFR. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE EWD SLOWLY THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE A STRONG SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS...LASTING THRU THU
AFTN BEFORE SPEEDS DISSIPATE THU EVE. THE INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP SCOUR OUT NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ALLOWING VSBYS TO QUICKLY
INCRS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDS BY LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVE.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED WITH IFR CONDS BUT AS THE CDFNT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACRS THE AREA...VSBY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-
08Z TO VFR CONDS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW BY AM EXPECTING CIGS
TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 08Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CIGS RISE ABOUT THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD...AND IF ANYTHING...
THE TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...CONDS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY
LATE THU AFTN WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THRU THU NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-066>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-048-054>057-
     064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 290949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THEN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND AND TURNING COLDER.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT INTENSITY ECHOES MOVING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW.  THE TREND ON THE RAP HAS BEEN
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME -SN OR UP.
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WILL WORD
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ADV TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING AS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MN AS
WELL.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERALL AFTER 18Z AND BECOME LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR/FLEETING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FORESEEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST OVER WISCONSIN...AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WEST BRINGS HIGHS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
IN PROGGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS AN INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOWFALL WITH INCH OR SO ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH...BUT THE MAIN /SOUTHERN STREAM/ SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL INEVITABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND SUB-ZERO LOWS OCCURRING NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DIP LOWER THAN -15 TO -20 ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH 20-30
POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LARGE AREA OF -FZDZ SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TO THE E AS CDFNT MAKES
PROGRESS THRU THE CWFA. THIS IS ALLOWING WRN MN TO HAVE CEILINGS
RISE FROM IFR RANGE TO MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY INCRS TO VFR. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE EWD SLOWLY THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE A STRONG SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS...LASTING THRU THU
AFTN BEFORE SPEEDS DISSIPATE THU EVE. THE INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP SCOUR OUT NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ALLOWING VSBYS TO QUICKLY
INCRS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDS BY LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVE.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED WITH IFR CONDS BUT AS THE CDFNT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACRS THE AREA...VSBY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-
08Z TO VFR CONDS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW BY AM EXPECTING CIGS
TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 08Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CIGS RISE ABOUT THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD...AND IF ANYTHING...
THE TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...CONDS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY
LATE THU AFTN WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THRU THU NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-066>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-048-054>057-
     064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290928 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290928 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290928 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290928 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 290534
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM AHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL SATURATION. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IA ON NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI...WITH A VEERING PROFILE THROUGH 800MB. THIS SHOULD ADD THE
TURBULENCE FACTOR TO ALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI FROM AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS COLLABORATED BY RUNS TODAY OF THE
HOPWRF...HRRR AND RAP SHOWING SOME A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM FROM RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH ON SOUTH
THROUGH MENOMONIE AND AUGUSTA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE ON
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOWER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY  ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SW MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT (12 MILLIBARS). IN FACT...6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES
ARE NEAR 14 MILLIBARS TO OUR WEST. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA SHOWED TWO
THINGS. FIRST...THE NAM PROFILE HAD THE STRONGEST TOP OF THE
CHANNEL WINDS NEARING 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY AROUND
09Z WHILE THE GFS PROFILE HAD 32 KNOT WINDS AT 200 FEET AT KFRM.
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO ALBERT LEA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP BACK TO A LITTLE
BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW. THURSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY
THIS TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THOSE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER
MORNINGS WE`VE HAD IN TWO+ WEEKS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO
NEAR LADYSMITH...TO ABOUT 10-15 ABOVE TOWARD REDWOOD FALLS. THE
CORE OF THE COLD WILL ESSENTIALLY MISS US TO THE EAST AS IT IS
DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUT REGION TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20 IN WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT WARMER AIR THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR EASTERN MN AND LOW 30S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MN.

THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC RUNS CAME IN WITH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING DRY
ARCTIC AIR TO ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
THIS IS A GREAT HINDRANCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF PV ADVECTING SOUTHEAST AND
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120KT JET STREAK.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL THROUGH WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE PRE-
EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BEGIN FEBRUARY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTER AN IMPRESSIVE WARM STRETCH FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS OF
JANUARY.  BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES...GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. ANOTHER POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LARGE AREA OF -FZDZ SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TO THE E AS CDFNT MAKES
PROGRESS THRU THE CWFA. THIS IS ALLOWING WRN MN TO HAVE CEILINGS
RISE FROM IFR RANGE TO MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY INCRS TO VFR. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE EWD SLOWLY THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE A STRONG SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS...LASTING THRU THU
AFTN BEFORE SPEEDS DISSIPATE THU EVE. THE INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP SCOUR OUT NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ALLOWING VSBYS TO QUICKLY
INCRS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDS BY LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVE.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED WITH IFR CONDS BUT AS THE CDFNT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACRS THE AREA...VSBY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-
08Z TO VFR CONDS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW BY AM EXPECTING CIGS
TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 08Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CIGS RISE ABOUT THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD...AND IF ANYTHING...
THE TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...CONDS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY
LATE THU AFTN WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THRU THU NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ054-056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290534
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM AHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL SATURATION. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IA ON NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI...WITH A VEERING PROFILE THROUGH 800MB. THIS SHOULD ADD THE
TURBULENCE FACTOR TO ALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI FROM AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS COLLABORATED BY RUNS TODAY OF THE
HOPWRF...HRRR AND RAP SHOWING SOME A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM FROM RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH ON SOUTH
THROUGH MENOMONIE AND AUGUSTA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE ON
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOWER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY  ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SW MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT (12 MILLIBARS). IN FACT...6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES
ARE NEAR 14 MILLIBARS TO OUR WEST. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA SHOWED TWO
THINGS. FIRST...THE NAM PROFILE HAD THE STRONGEST TOP OF THE
CHANNEL WINDS NEARING 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY AROUND
09Z WHILE THE GFS PROFILE HAD 32 KNOT WINDS AT 200 FEET AT KFRM.
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO ALBERT LEA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP BACK TO A LITTLE
BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW. THURSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY
THIS TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THOSE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER
MORNINGS WE`VE HAD IN TWO+ WEEKS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO
NEAR LADYSMITH...TO ABOUT 10-15 ABOVE TOWARD REDWOOD FALLS. THE
CORE OF THE COLD WILL ESSENTIALLY MISS US TO THE EAST AS IT IS
DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUT REGION TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20 IN WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT WARMER AIR THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR EASTERN MN AND LOW 30S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MN.

THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC RUNS CAME IN WITH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING DRY
ARCTIC AIR TO ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
THIS IS A GREAT HINDRANCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF PV ADVECTING SOUTHEAST AND
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120KT JET STREAK.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL THROUGH WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE PRE-
EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BEGIN FEBRUARY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTER AN IMPRESSIVE WARM STRETCH FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS OF
JANUARY.  BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES...GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. ANOTHER POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LARGE AREA OF -FZDZ SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TO THE E AS CDFNT MAKES
PROGRESS THRU THE CWFA. THIS IS ALLOWING WRN MN TO HAVE CEILINGS
RISE FROM IFR RANGE TO MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY INCRS TO VFR. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE EWD SLOWLY THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE A STRONG SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS...LASTING THRU THU
AFTN BEFORE SPEEDS DISSIPATE THU EVE. THE INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP SCOUR OUT NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ALLOWING VSBYS TO QUICKLY
INCRS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDS BY LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVE.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED WITH IFR CONDS BUT AS THE CDFNT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACRS THE AREA...VSBY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-
08Z TO VFR CONDS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW BY AM EXPECTING CIGS
TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 08Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CIGS RISE ABOUT THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD...AND IF ANYTHING...
THE TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...CONDS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY
LATE THU AFTN WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THRU THU NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ054-056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290534
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM AHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL SATURATION. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IA ON NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI...WITH A VEERING PROFILE THROUGH 800MB. THIS SHOULD ADD THE
TURBULENCE FACTOR TO ALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI FROM AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS COLLABORATED BY RUNS TODAY OF THE
HOPWRF...HRRR AND RAP SHOWING SOME A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM FROM RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH ON SOUTH
THROUGH MENOMONIE AND AUGUSTA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE ON
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOWER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY  ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SW MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT (12 MILLIBARS). IN FACT...6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES
ARE NEAR 14 MILLIBARS TO OUR WEST. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA SHOWED TWO
THINGS. FIRST...THE NAM PROFILE HAD THE STRONGEST TOP OF THE
CHANNEL WINDS NEARING 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY AROUND
09Z WHILE THE GFS PROFILE HAD 32 KNOT WINDS AT 200 FEET AT KFRM.
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO ALBERT LEA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP BACK TO A LITTLE
BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW. THURSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY
THIS TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THOSE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER
MORNINGS WE`VE HAD IN TWO+ WEEKS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO
NEAR LADYSMITH...TO ABOUT 10-15 ABOVE TOWARD REDWOOD FALLS. THE
CORE OF THE COLD WILL ESSENTIALLY MISS US TO THE EAST AS IT IS
DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUT REGION TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20 IN WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT WARMER AIR THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR EASTERN MN AND LOW 30S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MN.

THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC RUNS CAME IN WITH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING DRY
ARCTIC AIR TO ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
THIS IS A GREAT HINDRANCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF PV ADVECTING SOUTHEAST AND
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120KT JET STREAK.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL THROUGH WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE PRE-
EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BEGIN FEBRUARY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTER AN IMPRESSIVE WARM STRETCH FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS OF
JANUARY.  BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES...GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. ANOTHER POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LARGE AREA OF -FZDZ SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TO THE E AS CDFNT MAKES
PROGRESS THRU THE CWFA. THIS IS ALLOWING WRN MN TO HAVE CEILINGS
RISE FROM IFR RANGE TO MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY INCRS TO VFR. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE EWD SLOWLY THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE A STRONG SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS...LASTING THRU THU
AFTN BEFORE SPEEDS DISSIPATE THU EVE. THE INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP SCOUR OUT NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ALLOWING VSBYS TO QUICKLY
INCRS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDS BY LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVE.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED WITH IFR CONDS BUT AS THE CDFNT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACRS THE AREA...VSBY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-
08Z TO VFR CONDS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW BY AM EXPECTING CIGS
TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 08Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CIGS RISE ABOUT THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD...AND IF ANYTHING...
THE TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...CONDS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY
LATE THU AFTN WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THRU THU NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ054-056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 290534
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM AHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL SATURATION. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IA ON NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI...WITH A VEERING PROFILE THROUGH 800MB. THIS SHOULD ADD THE
TURBULENCE FACTOR TO ALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI FROM AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS COLLABORATED BY RUNS TODAY OF THE
HOPWRF...HRRR AND RAP SHOWING SOME A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM FROM RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH ON SOUTH
THROUGH MENOMONIE AND AUGUSTA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE ON
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOWER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY  ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SW MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT (12 MILLIBARS). IN FACT...6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES
ARE NEAR 14 MILLIBARS TO OUR WEST. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA SHOWED TWO
THINGS. FIRST...THE NAM PROFILE HAD THE STRONGEST TOP OF THE
CHANNEL WINDS NEARING 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY AROUND
09Z WHILE THE GFS PROFILE HAD 32 KNOT WINDS AT 200 FEET AT KFRM.
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO THE TOP OF THE
CHANNEL RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO ALBERT LEA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. BECAUSE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP BACK TO A LITTLE
BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW. THURSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY
THIS TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THOSE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER
MORNINGS WE`VE HAD IN TWO+ WEEKS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO
NEAR LADYSMITH...TO ABOUT 10-15 ABOVE TOWARD REDWOOD FALLS. THE
CORE OF THE COLD WILL ESSENTIALLY MISS US TO THE EAST AS IT IS
DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUT REGION TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20 IN WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT WARMER AIR THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR EASTERN MN AND LOW 30S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MN.

THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC RUNS CAME IN WITH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING DRY
ARCTIC AIR TO ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
THIS IS A GREAT HINDRANCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF PV ADVECTING SOUTHEAST AND
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120KT JET STREAK.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL THROUGH WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE PRE-
EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BEGIN FEBRUARY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTER AN IMPRESSIVE WARM STRETCH FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS OF
JANUARY.  BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES...GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. ANOTHER POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LARGE AREA OF -FZDZ SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TO THE E AS CDFNT MAKES
PROGRESS THRU THE CWFA. THIS IS ALLOWING WRN MN TO HAVE CEILINGS
RISE FROM IFR RANGE TO MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY INCRS TO VFR. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE EWD SLOWLY THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE A STRONG SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS...LASTING THRU THU
AFTN BEFORE SPEEDS DISSIPATE THU EVE. THE INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP SCOUR OUT NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ALLOWING VSBYS TO QUICKLY
INCRS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDS BY LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVE.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED WITH IFR CONDS BUT AS THE CDFNT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACRS THE AREA...VSBY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-
08Z TO VFR CONDS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW BY AM EXPECTING CIGS
TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 08Z. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CIGS RISE ABOUT THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD...AND IF ANYTHING...
THE TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...CONDS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY
LATE THU AFTN WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THRU THU NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ054-056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290522 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1122 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290522 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1122 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT








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