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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252045
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AT 20Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WERE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN WESTERN ND AT 20Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND IT SHOULD REACH FSD BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WILL DIP A BIT FURTHER SWD AS THE LOW MOVES. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS MENTION FOR TONIGHT UNTIL 06Z AND THEN EVER SO SLOWLY EXPAND
THE POPS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WARRANTS CHANCE POPS THROUGH
11Z. SINCE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE WITH THESE MODEL RUNS VERSUS PRIOR
RUNS...AND THE SFC LOW IS TAKING THE MUCH FARTHER SWD
TRAJECTORY...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI AND TAKES ON A SW/NE TILT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER MN. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
LOW MOVES QUICKLY INTO SW IL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND BETTER MOISTURE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRAWN OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOKS LIKE 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A CLEARING TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER/COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC RIDGING MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR INL TO THE
TEENS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR...TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES
EWD ACROSS MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
NRN MN DURING THIS TIME AND ACT TO INCREASE THE NORTH WINDS OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS LS AND
A VERY COLD AIR MASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20 DEG C...AND A
RELATIVELY GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMTS ACROSS BAYFIELD...ASHLAND
AND IRON COUNTIES WED EVENING THROUGH THUR MORNING...WITH UP TO 4 TO
7 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
GO AHEAD WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON BAYFIELD AT THIS TIME...AND MAY ACTUALLY
END UP UPGRADING TO A WARNING IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY...THE
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE LES
TO END ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND BRING QUIET BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE QUIET WX CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE NEXT S/W SLIDES IN FROM THE NW ACROSS NRN MN
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. THE INITIAL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
EAST ON FRI...BUT BE RE-ENFORCED BY A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE EXPECTED
TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
DURING THIS 36 HOUR PERIOD STARTING THUR NIGHT. LIGHT LES IS
POSSIBLE IN NRN WI ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN.

A COLD THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW IN NW WI...AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO IN NE MN. LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS
TIME WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP INTO THE -15 TO -30 DEG
RANGE. MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRI AND SAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. TEMPS SLIDE BACK INTO THE CHILLY RANGE SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV AND BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BANK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STARTING UP AFTER 04Z AROUND BRD/INL AND
SPREADING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  22  -1   9 /  40  60  20   0
INL   6   9 -13   6 /  30  20  10   0
BRD  17  20  -6  10 /  30  30  10   0
HYR  14  27   0  12 /  20  80  50  10
ASX  13  27   5  13 /  30  80  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 252045
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AT 20Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WERE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN WESTERN ND AT 20Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND IT SHOULD REACH FSD BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WILL DIP A BIT FURTHER SWD AS THE LOW MOVES. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS MENTION FOR TONIGHT UNTIL 06Z AND THEN EVER SO SLOWLY EXPAND
THE POPS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WARRANTS CHANCE POPS THROUGH
11Z. SINCE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE WITH THESE MODEL RUNS VERSUS PRIOR
RUNS...AND THE SFC LOW IS TAKING THE MUCH FARTHER SWD
TRAJECTORY...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI AND TAKES ON A SW/NE TILT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER MN. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
LOW MOVES QUICKLY INTO SW IL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND BETTER MOISTURE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRAWN OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOKS LIKE 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A CLEARING TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER/COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC RIDGING MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR INL TO THE
TEENS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR...TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES
EWD ACROSS MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
NRN MN DURING THIS TIME AND ACT TO INCREASE THE NORTH WINDS OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS LS AND
A VERY COLD AIR MASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20 DEG C...AND A
RELATIVELY GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMTS ACROSS BAYFIELD...ASHLAND
AND IRON COUNTIES WED EVENING THROUGH THUR MORNING...WITH UP TO 4 TO
7 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
GO AHEAD WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON BAYFIELD AT THIS TIME...AND MAY ACTUALLY
END UP UPGRADING TO A WARNING IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY...THE
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE LES
TO END ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND BRING QUIET BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE QUIET WX CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE NEXT S/W SLIDES IN FROM THE NW ACROSS NRN MN
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. THE INITIAL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
EAST ON FRI...BUT BE RE-ENFORCED BY A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE EXPECTED
TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
DURING THIS 36 HOUR PERIOD STARTING THUR NIGHT. LIGHT LES IS
POSSIBLE IN NRN WI ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN.

A COLD THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW IN NW WI...AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO IN NE MN. LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS
TIME WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP INTO THE -15 TO -30 DEG
RANGE. MAY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRI AND SAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. TEMPS SLIDE BACK INTO THE CHILLY RANGE SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV AND BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BANK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STARTING UP AFTER 04Z AROUND BRD/INL AND
SPREADING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  22  -1   9 /  40  60  20   0
INL   6   9 -13   6 /  30  20  10   0
BRD  17  20  -6  10 /  30  30  10   0
HYR  14  27   0  12 /  20  80  50  10
ASX  13  27   5  13 /  30  80  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 251759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KEAU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES IN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY. TO THE
WEST...A PATCH OF VFR CLOUDS FROM 035-050 WILL COVER THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO KEAU BY 20Z. THIS
DECK MAY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BKN-
OVC080-100 WILL BE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF CLIPPER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DOWN THE MN RIVER FROM APPLETON TO
MANKATO. THIS WILL IMPACT KRWF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VSBY FORECAST OF 3/4SM ATTM. SOME OF
THIS SNOW WILL GET PULLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST
CENTRAL WI FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ON WEDNESDAY TO
MVFR/IFR RESPECTIVELY AS SNOW MOVES IN. SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 2-3 INCHES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. NW 4-8 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KEAU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES IN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY. TO THE
WEST...A PATCH OF VFR CLOUDS FROM 035-050 WILL COVER THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO KEAU BY 20Z. THIS
DECK MAY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BKN-
OVC080-100 WILL BE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF CLIPPER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DOWN THE MN RIVER FROM APPLETON TO
MANKATO. THIS WILL IMPACT KRWF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VSBY FORECAST OF 3/4SM ATTM. SOME OF
THIS SNOW WILL GET PULLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST
CENTRAL WI FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ON WEDNESDAY TO
MVFR/IFR RESPECTIVELY AS SNOW MOVES IN. SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 2-3 INCHES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. NW 4-8 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KEAU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES IN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY. TO THE
WEST...A PATCH OF VFR CLOUDS FROM 035-050 WILL COVER THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO KEAU BY 20Z. THIS
DECK MAY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BKN-
OVC080-100 WILL BE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF CLIPPER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DOWN THE MN RIVER FROM APPLETON TO
MANKATO. THIS WILL IMPACT KRWF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VSBY FORECAST OF 3/4SM ATTM. SOME OF
THIS SNOW WILL GET PULLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST
CENTRAL WI FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ON WEDNESDAY TO
MVFR/IFR RESPECTIVELY AS SNOW MOVES IN. SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 2-3 INCHES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. NW 4-8 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KEAU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES IN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY. TO THE
WEST...A PATCH OF VFR CLOUDS FROM 035-050 WILL COVER THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO KEAU BY 20Z. THIS
DECK MAY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BKN-
OVC080-100 WILL BE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF CLIPPER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DOWN THE MN RIVER FROM APPLETON TO
MANKATO. THIS WILL IMPACT KRWF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VSBY FORECAST OF 3/4SM ATTM. SOME OF
THIS SNOW WILL GET PULLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST
CENTRAL WI FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ON WEDNESDAY TO
MVFR/IFR RESPECTIVELY AS SNOW MOVES IN. SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 2-3 INCHES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. NW 4-8 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251720 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WI FA...BUT SHOULD DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DRIER AIR
PREVAILS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BANK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STARTING UP AFTER 04Z AROUND BRD/INL AND
SPREADING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  17   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /   0  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  23  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 251720 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WI FA...BUT SHOULD DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DRIER AIR
PREVAILS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BANK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STARTING UP AFTER 04Z AROUND BRD/INL AND
SPREADING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  17   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /   0  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  23  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 251720 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WI FA...BUT SHOULD DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DRIER AIR
PREVAILS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BANK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STARTING UP AFTER 04Z AROUND BRD/INL AND
SPREADING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  17   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /   0  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  23  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 251720 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WI FA...BUT SHOULD DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DRIER AIR
PREVAILS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BANK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STARTING UP AFTER 04Z AROUND BRD/INL AND
SPREADING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  17   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /   0  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  23  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 251515
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WI FA...BUT SHOULD DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DRIER AIR
PREVAILS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  17   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /   0  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  23  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 251515
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.
SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WI FA...BUT SHOULD DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DRIER AIR
PREVAILS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  17   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /   0  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  23  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251215
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TWO BANKS OF CLOUDS IMPACTING THE TAF AREA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
/MVFR/ IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL WI AND WILL IMPACT KRNH AND KEAU
THIS MORNING WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. THE SECOND
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MN SITES. THE
RAP13 0.5MAGL CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS SEEM TO BE DECENTLY
HANDLING THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CLOUDS...AND WERE THEREFORE
UTILIZED IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE 12Z TAFS. ESSENTIALLY...THIS
MEANS MVFR CIGS AND -SN HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KEAU FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING...AND AT KRNH UNTIL 15Z. TO THE WEST...SHOULD SEE MOST SITES
WITH AT LEAST A LOW BKN VFR DECK BY LATE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5
KTS...AND THEN BACK FURTHER TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT
TROUGH AND SNOWMAKER ARRIVES. EXPECT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SAID
FEATURE TO REACH TO WESTERN SITES /KAXN AND KRWF/ BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN KSTC AND KMSP AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...FEW-SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000FT ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER
WILL SNEAK TOWARD THE EASTERN FRINGES OF KMSP...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL
RETREAT BACK EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AT
KMSP. SHOULD SEE A MORE FORMIDABLE BROKEN DECK MOVE IN BY NOON...BUT
IT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MVFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON...THEN FURTHER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SOUTH 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 251041
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KMPX 251041
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 251041
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 250947
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALREADY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250947
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALREADY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KMPX 250945
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALREADY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALREADY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALREADY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALREADY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KMPX 250440 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250440 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250439 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250439 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...
BUT CLEARING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURNING. THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WI. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER
MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
926 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
926 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE MADE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MORE THAN 8 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR IN
GILE...HAVE OPTED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR IRON COUNTY.
LOOKS LIKE UP TO 12 COULD PILE UP BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE OTHER THAN THE EARLIER GALE
WARNING WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AT GRAND MARAIS AS
OF 9 PM. THE DULUTH WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THAT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN CONSIDERABLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
748 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  20   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 250148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
748 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LOCAL DULUTH WRF RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSE WINDS NEAR THE GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS
SET UP JUST OFF SHORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS DURING THE DAY
REACHED UP TO 60 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...AND
ALTHOUGH THEY DROPPED A BIT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...THE DULUTH
WRF INDICATES THEY MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP AGAIN. GNA JUST REPORTED
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM
FORCE GUSTS. HAD SOME DELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES FROM DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTH SHORE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  20   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 250010 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...BUT CLEARING IS STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE SNOW HAS ABOUT ENDED...BUT A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WI AND SRN MN. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST TIMING FOR VFR CONDITIONS IS ABOUT 06Z...BUT IT COULD
COME A BIT EARLIER. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250010 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...BUT CLEARING IS STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE SNOW HAS ABOUT ENDED...BUT A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WI AND SRN MN. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST TIMING FOR VFR CONDITIONS IS ABOUT 06Z...BUT IT COULD
COME A BIT EARLIER. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250010 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...BUT CLEARING IS STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE SNOW HAS ABOUT ENDED...BUT A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WI AND SRN MN. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST TIMING FOR VFR CONDITIONS IS ABOUT 06Z...BUT IT COULD
COME A BIT EARLIER. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250010 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...BUT CLEARING IS STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE SNOW HAS ABOUT ENDED...BUT A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WI AND SRN MN. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...BEST TIMING FOR VFR CONDITIONS IS ABOUT 06Z...BUT IT COULD
COME A BIT EARLIER. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS S 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 250007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN ISSUED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KDLH 242341
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
541 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242341
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
541 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
NORTHLAND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE KHYR AREA...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 242057
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242057
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242057
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242057
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EVENT TO NE MN AND NW WI IS ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. VSBYS ARE COMING UP QUICKLY WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HANGING AROUND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP VSBYS
FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES STILL LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE NNW FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL LEAVE THOSE HEADLINES AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM RIDE.
SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME ISOLD HIGHER VALUES IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. UPPER TROF
THAT IS OVER THE FA ATTM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT. AS IT
PASSES OVER NW WI...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THIS TROF...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER IRON
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WLY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER
15Z...THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA. WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN BY MID DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR INITIALLY QUIET WX CONDITIONS EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SRN MN/CENTRAL IA
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND SPREAD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM BISMARK TO
FARGO TO LACROSSE. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHLAND ON WED...BUT A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPLIT OFF TO THE EAST INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION...WHICH WILL SPREAD AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT AND
FAVORABLE NLY FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW OVER NRN MN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COLD LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED AND THUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN. WIND CHILLS BELOW
-20 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP FRI AND SAT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...A RETURN BACK TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  21  14  21 /  10   0  30  40
INL   4  19   4  10 /   0  10  40  20
BRD   7  23  15  22 /  10   0  30  40
HYR  11  22  12  26 /  40   0  10  60
ASX  16  24  15  27 /  80   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KMPX 242049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA



000
FXUS63 KMPX 242049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA



000
FXUS63 KMPX 242049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA



000
FXUS63 KMPX 242049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TOP
OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING...AND MORE TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WAS
PRESENT OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN IL...WHICH DPVA FROM IT COMBINED
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF SNOW TO
PERSIST FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCED FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. RAP 700MB TEMPS SHOWED
READING IN THE -12 TO -13C RANGE...MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WARMEST IN WESTERN WI. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...HAS
PRODUCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE DEEPEST MIXING HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLEARING
DOMINATES A LOT OF THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND VERY DRY AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE IN THE 0.1-0.2
INCH RANGE.

THE FOCUS FOR ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THAT POTENT TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR THE TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NEXT POTENT TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
700MB COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FIGURE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z THEY SHOULD HAVE ENDED...IN AGREEMENT WITH A
LOT OF HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SNOW OVER WESTERN WI WILL
TAKE LONGER TO END BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND THERE...SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDING THE WIND
ADVISORY...PRESENT WINDS ARE MARGINAL TO KEEP IT GOING.
HOWEVER...SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN BRISK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...PLAN ON LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. CLEARING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LOT OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN WI BY 12Z. THE
CLEARING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALREADY
COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. TEENS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
COME INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL MARCH THEIR WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WEST PRIOR TO
00Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE CLOUDS...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. IN FACT...925MB READINGS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C AT 12Z TO -4 TO -7C BY 00Z...WARMEST NEAR MANKATO AND
NEW ULM. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD IS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR TREND
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS TO DIG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWEST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TROUGH BEING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. AS A RESULT OF THIS TREND...THERE IS A CHANCE
SUGGESTED BY THE 24.12Z GFS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS. IN THE GFS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVE DOWN TO NEAR
THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE BRUSHING THE MN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MODEL TREND...BUT QPF AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED
FURTHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY NOON AS COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS...THUS THESE READINGS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE -10 TO -16C RANGE
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFERING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SWITCH
TO ZONAL FLOW RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION...A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SNOWFALL BAND LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW GENERALLY APPEARS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS PERIOD COULD
BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD EASILY TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT SPEED...UPPER 20S TO MID
30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE. DESPITE THE ZONAL FLOW...AN ARCTIC LOW
LEVEL INTRUSION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COLDER THAN AT 850MB. THOSE 925MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING
FROM -10 TO -15C MEANS BACK TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA



000
FXUS63 KDLH 241743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1143 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1143 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1143 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1143 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WILL LIKELY SEE A LAYER OF LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR HIB...DLH AND HYR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW AND
BECOME LIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BJT






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241737
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SHEA



000
FXUS63 KMPX 241737
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MIX OF CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IMPACTING MINNESOTA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND UPPER SYSTEM WITH OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON YET BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
RELATIVELY STABLE.

SHORT BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME CLEARING IN
FROM THE WEST...ALBEIT DELAYED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TRENDS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE QUICKLY
TUESDAY SO WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS
LATTER PART OF FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
MSP BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND DEFORMATION SNOW
AREA AREA TO THE EAST. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE
POCKETS OF IFR. BY EVENING SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST
LEAVING JUST MVFR CEILINGS WITH SLOW BREAK UP IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND BACK TO MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241249
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ008-
     009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241249
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ008-
     009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241249
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ008-
     009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 241249
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ008-
     009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241232
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE..FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PARTICULARLY KEAU AND KRNH.
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT EAST CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI SITES AS MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER IS LOST. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW-END MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY...SCATTERING OUT THIS EVE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVE AS WELL.

KMSP...
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO START THE PERIOD...SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES BY 15Z. VFR CIGS RETURN
AROUND 05Z TUES...WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS






000
FXUS63 KMPX 241232
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE..FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PARTICULARLY KEAU AND KRNH.
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT EAST CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI SITES AS MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER IS LOST. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW-END MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY...SCATTERING OUT THIS EVE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVE AS WELL.

KMSP...
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO START THE PERIOD...SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES BY 15Z. VFR CIGS RETURN
AROUND 05Z TUES...WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  23  15 /  70  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241125
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  23  15 /  70  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 241021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KMPX 241021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL FACILITATE PROLONGED LIFT LOCALLY...A BIT STRONGER
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE FROM DURAND...TO EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH. THE HOPWRF
SUPPORTS THIS THEORY...WITH ALL FOUR MEMBERS INDICATING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL BEING MET BY SUNSET THERE. ALTHOUGH THE
LANDSCAPE TYPICALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND
THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT FOG/SNOWMELT YESTERDAY..STILL COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI. THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK UP TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TWIN
CITIES....WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH
TO MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.

MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE HOWLING AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WIND ADVISORY THEREFORE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A NEARLY
STEADY TO FALLING TEMP TREND WILL ENSUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS TONIGHTTEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE TWO CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ONE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE ANOTHER AFFECTS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SW WITH TUE/WED SYSTEM...WITH THE SFC
LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND INTO CENTRAL IA BY WED
MORNING. THE 50H VORT MAX IS ALSO FURTHER SW CREATING A DILEMMA ON
HOW FAR EAST/NE DOES THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR ERODES THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS AIR MASS REMAINS LIMITED ON THE
AMT OF MOISTURE IT CAN RING OUT BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND MIXING RATIOS. THE ONLY PROBLEM WOULD BE ENHANCED FORCING WHICH
MAY AID IN A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER QPF AMTS. WOULD LIKE TO STAY CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE EC/WPC QPF AMTS WHICH CREATE AN AREA OF 0.08 TO
0.13 THRU MOST OF THE EVENT. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT HAS A NARROW BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM
WC MN SE TO NEAR KAEL. CURRENT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND OF THE SW SHIFT.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SW/S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT
SOMETIME LATE THU/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RETURN FLOW
AND THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH QPF. CHC POPS AT
THIS TIME SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS SAID BEFORE...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR
MASS TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR OR ABV FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER BASED ON THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-
     026>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 240905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE CARRIED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT KINL AND KBRD TO
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  23  15 /  80  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  50  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE CARRIED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT KINL AND KBRD TO
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  23  15 /  80  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  50  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE CARRIED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT KINL AND KBRD TO
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  23  15 /  80  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  50  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE CARRIED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT KINL AND KBRD TO
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  23  15 /  80  40   0  40
INL  20   3  22   8 /  50  10  10  40
BRD  21   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  32  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  34  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 240606 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     047>051-054>059-064>067-073>075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 240606 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RATHER COMPLEX 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...INTENSITY...AND DURATION. PRECIPITATION OVER WI REMAINS
MAINLY RAIN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IT IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
FAR EASTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MN AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL IT INTERSECTS THE MOISTURE
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS...ALL MN TAF SITES HAVE A
THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH RANGE...PRECIP SHOULD
TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT SNOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
08 OR 09Z...THEN TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL RETURN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     047>051-054>059-064>067-073>075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ016-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE CARRIED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT KINL AND KBRD TO
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  28   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  19  20   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  21  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  29  30  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  32  32  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 240538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE CARRIED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT KINL AND KBRD TO
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
EARLY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  28   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  19  20   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  21  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  29  30  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  32  32  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 240024 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS MN. A BAND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL TURN
TO SNOW BY MID EVENING AND SHIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN OVER MN UNDER THIS
BAND...BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER WINDS...SHOULD GREATLY
IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS WI AS FOG DISSIPATES. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS.

KMSP...RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 02Z...TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 04Z
AND END AROUND 06Z OR 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 02Z WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 240024 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS MN. A BAND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL TURN
TO SNOW BY MID EVENING AND SHIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN OVER MN UNDER THIS
BAND...BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER WINDS...SHOULD GREATLY
IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS WI AS FOG DISSIPATES. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS.

KMSP...RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 02Z...TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 04Z
AND END AROUND 06Z OR 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 02Z WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 600 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT 800
PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE GRAND
FORKS AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 600 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT 800
PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE GRAND
FORKS AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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