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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250607
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
107 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Active weather is expected through Saturday night, with two
rounds of possibly severe convection to cope with in the next 36
hours or so. First, this evening we have continued warm advection
bringing a plume of high RH air into the area, with dewpoints
having risen into the 50s, with values approaching 60 in our
southwest. This is going to make for a muggy night tonight, with
low temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s for most
locations. As usual close to the lake it will be cooler. Might be
a good night to visit Lake Superior this evening! The main
question this evening will be where&when the convection fires. For
now am favoring the high res models which generate convection over
eastern North Dakota and/or northwest Minnesota and surge it north
on the nose of the moisture plume. Some models are generating
convection farther south, but the current analysis seems to favor
a more northerly solution. The question then becomes how far
southeast the convection will spread. In favor of keeping the
convection to the west is the quickly weakening instability to the
east and the mid level flow that should push the convection to the
north once it is generated. However, the convergence and
frontogenesis extend over much of northeast Minnesota after
midnight tonight and may help generate even higher based
convection farther east which should also push northeast. This
convection should weaken and move northeast into Ontario early
Saturday morning, and we should get a period of relatively quiet
weather for a few hours. The afternoon has been our main concern,
with some potential for severe weather in the forecast for several
days now. This event has some similarities to last Sunday`s event,
with a cold front plowing into a deeply unstable airmass with
strong shear. There are some minor differences though that could
keep this from being as significant event as that one was. The
shear is farther west relative to the plume of instability, plus
we appear to be less strongly capped than we were that day. This
is going to cause the thunderstorms to develop earlier, and will
have a narrower time frame in the most favorable environment to
produce severe storms. That said, it still looks like there is
plenty of opportunity to produce initial discrete supercells,
which should evolve into a more linear feature as it moves farther
east. This will also be more limited to the southern few rows of
counties, as Lake Superior may keep things from getting too
unstable over the Arrowhead. The convection should sweep east, and
by the early morning hours be out of the area. Highs on Saturday
may be very warm and muggy with highs pushing into the low 80s at
least. The more sunshine we get the more likely we are to get even
into the mid and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Fairly quiet stretch coming up for much of the long term. Main
concerns at this time are the winds on Sunday afternoon and
thunderstorm chances late in the period.

Stacked low pressure will be found over northwest Ontario Sunday
morning and will gradually push eastward through Monday morning.
With lingering vorticity over the area and weak cool advection aloft
and at the surface, there is a good chance for scattered to isolated
showers, and possibly a rumble or two of thunder, across northern
Minnesota late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Strong
cold air advection behind departing cool front and efficient mixing
in the low-levels, should result in sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph
range with gusts as high as 35 mph. Not expecting advisory criteria
conditions, but later shifts will need to re-evaluate. Lingering
shortwave trough will remain in place early Monday, but think
shower/storm chance will be lower by then.

Upper ridge will build across the Intermountain West with trough
continuing to dig over the East Coast. That pattern leaves the
Northland in a northwest flow regime and generally cut off from
significant sources of moisture. As a result, the chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be low through much of the week. A bolus of
DCVA will move southeast through the Canadian prairies Wednesday
evening and Thursday. The passage of this feature, and associated
surface response, may trigger a few thunderstorms across the area.
At this point, the odds of severe weather with this feature are low.
Model solutions diverge by Friday with the ECMWF bringing an upper
low southward over Ontario, which would yield increased cloud cover
and chances of showers. The GFS solution would keep the upper low
far to the northeast over Quebec. Given time range and inherited
forecast, opted to keep low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast
through end of the week.

Temperatures throughout the long range should trend near seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern overnight is the possibility of thunderstorms at
KINL/KHIB/KDLH. Most confident on thunderstorm activity at KINL
and tried to time thunderstorms moving through by the last several
HRRR runs. Less certain on storms at KDLH/KHIB as unsure if
activity will develop that far southeast as the strongest forcing
is farther north. Due to the uncertainty left in as VCSH from 09
to 13Z. Think that these showers/storms will bring ceilings down
to the MVFR range as the column moistens at KDLH/KHIB/KINL. Think
there is a possibility of MVFR at KHYR/KBRD around 13Z as well,
but held off as showers should remain out of these locations
overnight and early tomorrow morning.


Will see a return to VFR ceilings as the mixed layer develops. Due
to the incoming system and the increasing pressure gradient, will
see gusty winds develop at all terminals. During the afternoon
will see another round of showers and thunderstorms develop. Tried
to show a downward trend of thunderstorm activity to all terminals
except KHYR around 01Z as the cold front will have moved through
these locations. KHYR is likely to see storms around until after
06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  82  57  78 /  50  80  60  20
INL  66  81  58  69 /  60  80  30  50
BRD  69  86  59  79 /  30  80  20  10
HYR  65  86  59  80 /  40  80  80  10
ASX  58  86  60  80 /  40  80  80  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...WL



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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250526
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1226 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This is a perfect scenario of calm weather before the storm in the
next 24-36 hours.

Slight adjustments were made for tonight, and Saturday afternoon
timing of the thunderstorms, but overall stuck close to previous
forecast.

First, a very strong and abnormally deep upper low for late June was
moving across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Models continued
a straight forward forecast with this upper low progged to move
along the Canadian border, from North Dakota, to southern Manitoba
by Saturday evening.

As with previous values of wind shear and instability, models
continued to depict a period that highlights both of these
parameters maximized between 19z Sat - 01z Sun across central
Minnesota early, and then moving southeast into east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin by early evening. 0-6km wind
shear values initially are forecast to be around 25 kts, but are
expected to increase to 30-40 kts by early evening. MLCAPEs range
from 2000-3000 J/kg in west central and central Minnesota at 18z
Saturday, to 1500-2000 J/kg by 00z Sunday in east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin. Other severe weather parameters
including CWASP (Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter on SPC
website) and Helicity also show the potential of organized severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, into the early evening. Latest SPC
Day 2 outlook has portions of east central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin in an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms.
Latest CIPS also support an outbreak with today`s run (12Z Friday)
leaning toward July 14, 2010 which was the Northfield, Lakeville,
Randolph tornado (EF-1). This tornado also affected west central
Wisconsin near Ellsworth that had an EF2 tornado.

In the short term, a few elevated instability showers or
thunderstorms are possible tonight, but latest CAMS do not show any
type of organization or consistency. Therefore, kept isolated or
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The best chance
of more organized or scattered activity will occur in northern
Minnesota after midnight, and drift to the southeast into east
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin toward sunrise. This
is also where some of the local RAP/HRRR convective elements show
some potential. However, if any storms do develop, the amount of
instability and shear is weak enough to limit severe potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be in progress across
eastern MN and western WI at the start of the long term with ample
shear and instability in place. CWASP values are most favorable from
the Twin Cities on north and east. PWAT values at or above 2 inches
are indicated in various model solutions for these same areas.
This is above the daily max for the MPX sounding climatology,
leading to a flooding concern if the storms would begin to train.
The culprit is a strong low pressure system moving eastward across
south central Canada with a trailing cold front arching southward
across MN. The worst of the storms should east of our forecast
area by midnight Saturday night, if not a few hours earlier.

By Sunday, the low pressure system will be just north of MN with
the cold front well east and south of the local area. There will
be a breezy west wind on Sunday, especially across central MN,
but highs will still likely top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Thereafter, the flow aloft will become more northwest with high
pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday. Both days will be
quite pleasant with highs in the 70s along with dew points in the
45 to 55 degree range.

For the balance of the work week, Wednesday through Friday, we`ll
remain in a northwest flow but there will be a few short waves
moving through. Some instability showers and thunderstorms can not
be ruled out during this period. The day with the best chance for
a little precipitation is Thursday, when the strongest of the
waves moves through. High will slowly rise to around 80 by the
time we reach Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms will develop rapidly across western MN early to mid
afternoon and become widespread as they head east across MN and
into western WI. Only minor tweaks to the prior taf were made,
otherwise timing still appears spot on. Some of these storms will
likely be severe with gusts exceeding 50 kt...but will wait to
include that level of detail in the TEMPOs. Winds will increase
markedly after 15Z ahead of cold front at all locales and will
remain S to SW until frontal passage Saturday evening all MN
airports, and after midnight WI sites.

KMSP...Best timing of storms appears to be within the 22-01Z
window. Until then, VFR conditions are expected with gusty south
winds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.
TUE...VFR. North-Northeast wind 7-10kts becoming East 5-8 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250526
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1226 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This is a perfect scenario of calm weather before the storm in the
next 24-36 hours.

Slight adjustments were made for tonight, and Saturday afternoon
timing of the thunderstorms, but overall stuck close to previous
forecast.

First, a very strong and abnormally deep upper low for late June was
moving across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Models continued
a straight forward forecast with this upper low progged to move
along the Canadian border, from North Dakota, to southern Manitoba
by Saturday evening.

As with previous values of wind shear and instability, models
continued to depict a period that highlights both of these
parameters maximized between 19z Sat - 01z Sun across central
Minnesota early, and then moving southeast into east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin by early evening. 0-6km wind
shear values initially are forecast to be around 25 kts, but are
expected to increase to 30-40 kts by early evening. MLCAPEs range
from 2000-3000 J/kg in west central and central Minnesota at 18z
Saturday, to 1500-2000 J/kg by 00z Sunday in east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin. Other severe weather parameters
including CWASP (Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter on SPC
website) and Helicity also show the potential of organized severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, into the early evening. Latest SPC
Day 2 outlook has portions of east central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin in an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms.
Latest CIPS also support an outbreak with today`s run (12Z Friday)
leaning toward July 14, 2010 which was the Northfield, Lakeville,
Randolph tornado (EF-1). This tornado also affected west central
Wisconsin near Ellsworth that had an EF2 tornado.

In the short term, a few elevated instability showers or
thunderstorms are possible tonight, but latest CAMS do not show any
type of organization or consistency. Therefore, kept isolated or
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The best chance
of more organized or scattered activity will occur in northern
Minnesota after midnight, and drift to the southeast into east
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin toward sunrise. This
is also where some of the local RAP/HRRR convective elements show
some potential. However, if any storms do develop, the amount of
instability and shear is weak enough to limit severe potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be in progress across
eastern MN and western WI at the start of the long term with ample
shear and instability in place. CWASP values are most favorable from
the Twin Cities on north and east. PWAT values at or above 2 inches
are indicated in various model solutions for these same areas.
This is above the daily max for the MPX sounding climatology,
leading to a flooding concern if the storms would begin to train.
The culprit is a strong low pressure system moving eastward across
south central Canada with a trailing cold front arching southward
across MN. The worst of the storms should east of our forecast
area by midnight Saturday night, if not a few hours earlier.

By Sunday, the low pressure system will be just north of MN with
the cold front well east and south of the local area. There will
be a breezy west wind on Sunday, especially across central MN,
but highs will still likely top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Thereafter, the flow aloft will become more northwest with high
pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday. Both days will be
quite pleasant with highs in the 70s along with dew points in the
45 to 55 degree range.

For the balance of the work week, Wednesday through Friday, we`ll
remain in a northwest flow but there will be a few short waves
moving through. Some instability showers and thunderstorms can not
be ruled out during this period. The day with the best chance for
a little precipitation is Thursday, when the strongest of the
waves moves through. High will slowly rise to around 80 by the
time we reach Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms will develop rapidly across western MN early to mid
afternoon and become widespread as they head east across MN and
into western WI. Only minor tweaks to the prior taf were made,
otherwise timing still appears spot on. Some of these storms will
likely be severe with gusts exceeding 50 kt...but will wait to
include that level of detail in the TEMPOs. Winds will increase
markedly after 15Z ahead of cold front at all locales and will
remain S to SW until frontal passage Saturday evening all MN
airports, and after midnight WI sites.

KMSP...Best timing of storms appears to be within the 22-01Z
window. Until then, VFR conditions are expected with gusty south
winds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.
TUE...VFR. North-Northeast wind 7-10kts becoming East 5-8 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 250039
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This is a perfect scenario of calm weather before the storm in the
next 24-36 hours.

Slight adjustments were made for tonight, and Saturday afternoon
timing of the thunderstorms, but overall stuck close to previous
forecast.

First, a very strong and abnormally deep upper low for late June was
moving across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Models continued
a straight forward forecast with this upper low progged to move
along the Canadian border, from North Dakota, to southern Manitoba
by Saturday evening.

As with previous values of wind shear and instability, models
continued to depict a period that highlights both of these
parameters maximized between 19z Sat - 01z Sun across central
Minnesota early, and then moving southeast into east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin by early evening. 0-6km wind
shear values initially are forecast to be around 25 kts, but are
expected to increase to 30-40 kts by early evening. MLCAPEs range
from 2000-3000 J/kg in west central and central Minnesota at 18z
Saturday, to 1500-2000 J/kg by 00z Sunday in east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin. Other severe weather parameters
including CWASP (Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter on SPC
website) and Helicity also show the potential of organized severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, into the early evening. Latest SPC
Day 2 outlook has portions of east central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin in an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms.
Latest CIPS also support an outbreak with today`s run (12Z Friday)
leaning toward July 14, 2010 which was the Northfield, Lakeville,
Randolph tornado (EF-1). This tornado also affected west central
Wisconsin near Ellsworth that had an EF2 tornado.

In the short term, a few elevated instability showers or
thunderstorms are possible tonight, but latest CAMS do not show any
type of organization or consistency. Therefore, kept isolated or
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The best chance
of more organized or scattered activity will occur in northern
Minnesota after midnight, and drift to the southeast into east
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin toward sunrise. This
is also where some of the local RAP/HRRR convective elements show
some potential. However, if any storms do develop, the amount of
instability and shear is weak enough to limit severe potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be in progress across
eastern MN and western WI at the start of the long term with ample
shear and instability in place. CWASP values are most favorable from
the Twin Cities on north and east. PWAT values at or above 2 inches
are indicated in various model solutions for these same areas.
This is above the daily max for the MPX sounding climatology,
leading to a flooding concern if the storms would begin to train.
The culprit is a strong low pressure system moving eastward across
south central Canada with a trailing cold front arching southward
across MN. The worst of the storms should east of our forecast
area by midnight Saturday night, if not a few hours earlier.

By Sunday, the low pressure system will be just north of MN with
the cold front well east and south of the local area. There will
be a breezy west wind on Sunday, especially across central MN,
but highs will still likely top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Thereafter, the flow aloft will become more northwest with high
pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday. Both days will be
quite pleasant with highs in the 70s along with dew points in the
45 to 55 degree range.

For the balance of the work week, Wednesday through Friday, we`ll
remain in a northwest flow but there will be a few short waves
moving through. Some instability showers and thunderstorms can not
be ruled out during this period. The day with the best chance for
a little precipitation is Thursday, when the strongest of the
waves moves through. High will slowly rise to around 80 by the
time we reach Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 730 CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Scattered very light showers South of Mankato will fizzle out
during the next few hours as daylight heating subsides. Mdt mainly
SE flow over TAF sites will continue tonight as surface pressure
gradient tightens ahead of approaching sfc low currently over
Western Dakotas. All short term model data indicating very little
chance of convective activity tonight after midnight over most
airport sites. However, with modest Theta-E advection and weak to
mdt divergence aloft, decided to include short burst of light
showers at all sites save RWF and EAU. VFR conditions will ensue
tonight all airport locations, with short term MVFR VSBYs
anticipated on Saturday all locales with convective activity.
Best chance for thunderstorms will be early afternoon Western TAF
sites, with mid to late afternoon remainder save EAU which will
encounter same early evening. Severe weather is still a possibility
with some of these storms. Winds will increase markedly after 15Z
ahead of cold front all locales and will remain S to SW until
frontal passage Saturday evening all MN airports, and after
midnight WI sites.

KMSP...

VFR CIGS and VSBYS will be the rule prior to 12Z...save a brief
low chance shower scenario late tonight. Best chance for VCTS for
next few days should be anticipated after 22Z. Scattered severe
weather more likely over Eastern MN 22Z-00Z. If same does develop
look for both MVFR Cigs and Vsbys this time period. SSE winds will
turn more S on Saturday morning, increasing noticeably with strong
SW flow anticipated by late afternoon. Frontal passage expected by
26/06Z time frame.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...MVFR Ceilings possible aftn-early eve. Southwest Wind 12-26
kts.
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.
TUE...VFR. North-Northeast wind 7-10kts becoming East 5-8 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...AJZ




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250001
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Active weather is expected through Saturday night, with two
rounds of possibly severe convection to cope with in the next 36
hours or so. First, this evening we have continued warm advection
bringing a plume of high RH air into the area, with dewpoints
having risen into the 50s, with values approaching 60 in our
southwest. This is going to make for a muggy night tonight, with
low temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s for most
locations. As usual close to the lake it will be cooler. Might be
a good night to visit Lake Superior this evening! The main
question this evening will be where&when the convection fires. For
now am favoring the high res models which generate convection over
eastern North Dakota and/or northwest Minnesota and surge it north
on the nose of the moisture plume. Some models are generating
convection farther south, but the current analysis seems to favor
a more northerly solution. The question then becomes how far
southeast the convection will spread. In favor of keeping the
convection to the west is the quickly weakening instability to the
east and the mid level flow that should push the convection to the
north once it is generated. However, the convergence and
frontogenesis extend over much of northeast Minnesota after
midnight tonight and may help generate even higher based
convection farther east which should also push northeast. This
convection should weaken and move northeast into Ontario early
Saturday morning, and we should get a period of relatively quiet
weather for a few hours. The afternoon has been our main concern,
with some potential for severe weather in the forecast for several
days now. This event has some similarities to last Sunday`s event,
with a cold front plowing into a deeply unstable airmass with
strong shear. There are some minor differences though that could
keep this from being as significant event as that one was. The
shear is farther west relative to the plume of instability, plus
we appear to be less strongly capped than we were that day. This
is going to cause the thunderstorms to develop earlier, and will
have a narrower time frame in the most favorable environment to
produce severe storms. That said, it still looks like there is
plenty of opportunity to produce initial discrete supercells,
which should evolve into a more linear feature as it moves farther
east. This will also be more limited to the southern few rows of
counties, as Lake Superior may keep things from getting too
unstable over the Arrowhead. The convection should sweep east, and
by the early morning hours be out of the area. Highs on Saturday
may be very warm and muggy with highs pushing into the low 80s at
least. The more sunshine we get the more likely we are to get even
into the mid and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Fairly quiet stretch coming up for much of the long term. Main
concerns at this time are the winds on Sunday afternoon and
thunderstorm chances late in the period.

Stacked low pressure will be found over northwest Ontario Sunday
morning and will gradually push eastward through Monday morning.
With lingering vorticity over the area and weak cool advection aloft
and at the surface, there is a good chance for scattered to isolated
showers, and possibly a rumble or two of thunder, across northern
Minnesota late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Strong
cold air advection behind departing cool front and efficient mixing
in the low-levels, should result in sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph
range with gusts as high as 35 mph. Not expecting advisory criteria
conditions, but later shifts will need to re-evaluate. Lingering
shortwave trough will remain in place early Monday, but think
shower/storm chance will be lower by then.

Upper ridge will build across the Intermountain West with trough
continuing to dig over the East Coast. That pattern leaves the
Northland in a northwest flow regime and generally cut off from
significant sources of moisture. As a result, the chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be low through much of the week. A bolus of
DCVA will move southeast through the Canadian prairies Wednesday
evening and Thursday. The passage of this feature, and associated
surface response, may trigger a few thunderstorms across the area.
At this point, the odds of severe weather with this feature are low.
Model solutions diverge by Friday with the ECMWF bringing an upper
low southward over Ontario, which would yield increased cloud cover
and chances of showers. The GFS solution would keep the upper low
far to the northeast over Quebec. Given time range and inherited
forecast, opted to keep low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast
through end of the week.

Temperatures throughout the long range should trend near seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Not much change in the latest set of TAFs, however did push back
the timing of thunderstorms moving in late tonight. Tried to time
the best chance of storms coming in late tonight via the last few
runs of the HRRR. Will see cigs lower to MVFR or lower late
tonight, with some visibility reductions. Unsure at this point in
time how low visibility reduction will be. So, brought in reductions
to MVFR range at KHIB/KINL where am most confident in storms
moving through.

Will see a break in thunderstorm activity Saturday morning as
storms exit. This should bring improving ceilings for a few hours
before another round of storms moves through during the afternoon.
Gusty winds will develop during the morning and continue through
the afternoon as the mixed layer develops. With the next round of
storms moving in hinted at MVFR possibility at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  82  57  78 /  50  80  60  20
INL  65  81  58  69 /  60  80  30  50
BRD  67  86  59  79 /  30  80  20  10
HYR  65  86  59  80 /  40  80  80  10
ASX  60  86  60  80 /  40  80  80  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 250001
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Active weather is expected through Saturday night, with two
rounds of possibly severe convection to cope with in the next 36
hours or so. First, this evening we have continued warm advection
bringing a plume of high RH air into the area, with dewpoints
having risen into the 50s, with values approaching 60 in our
southwest. This is going to make for a muggy night tonight, with
low temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s for most
locations. As usual close to the lake it will be cooler. Might be
a good night to visit Lake Superior this evening! The main
question this evening will be where&when the convection fires. For
now am favoring the high res models which generate convection over
eastern North Dakota and/or northwest Minnesota and surge it north
on the nose of the moisture plume. Some models are generating
convection farther south, but the current analysis seems to favor
a more northerly solution. The question then becomes how far
southeast the convection will spread. In favor of keeping the
convection to the west is the quickly weakening instability to the
east and the mid level flow that should push the convection to the
north once it is generated. However, the convergence and
frontogenesis extend over much of northeast Minnesota after
midnight tonight and may help generate even higher based
convection farther east which should also push northeast. This
convection should weaken and move northeast into Ontario early
Saturday morning, and we should get a period of relatively quiet
weather for a few hours. The afternoon has been our main concern,
with some potential for severe weather in the forecast for several
days now. This event has some similarities to last Sunday`s event,
with a cold front plowing into a deeply unstable airmass with
strong shear. There are some minor differences though that could
keep this from being as significant event as that one was. The
shear is farther west relative to the plume of instability, plus
we appear to be less strongly capped than we were that day. This
is going to cause the thunderstorms to develop earlier, and will
have a narrower time frame in the most favorable environment to
produce severe storms. That said, it still looks like there is
plenty of opportunity to produce initial discrete supercells,
which should evolve into a more linear feature as it moves farther
east. This will also be more limited to the southern few rows of
counties, as Lake Superior may keep things from getting too
unstable over the Arrowhead. The convection should sweep east, and
by the early morning hours be out of the area. Highs on Saturday
may be very warm and muggy with highs pushing into the low 80s at
least. The more sunshine we get the more likely we are to get even
into the mid and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Fairly quiet stretch coming up for much of the long term. Main
concerns at this time are the winds on Sunday afternoon and
thunderstorm chances late in the period.

Stacked low pressure will be found over northwest Ontario Sunday
morning and will gradually push eastward through Monday morning.
With lingering vorticity over the area and weak cool advection aloft
and at the surface, there is a good chance for scattered to isolated
showers, and possibly a rumble or two of thunder, across northern
Minnesota late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Strong
cold air advection behind departing cool front and efficient mixing
in the low-levels, should result in sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph
range with gusts as high as 35 mph. Not expecting advisory criteria
conditions, but later shifts will need to re-evaluate. Lingering
shortwave trough will remain in place early Monday, but think
shower/storm chance will be lower by then.

Upper ridge will build across the Intermountain West with trough
continuing to dig over the East Coast. That pattern leaves the
Northland in a northwest flow regime and generally cut off from
significant sources of moisture. As a result, the chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be low through much of the week. A bolus of
DCVA will move southeast through the Canadian prairies Wednesday
evening and Thursday. The passage of this feature, and associated
surface response, may trigger a few thunderstorms across the area.
At this point, the odds of severe weather with this feature are low.
Model solutions diverge by Friday with the ECMWF bringing an upper
low southward over Ontario, which would yield increased cloud cover
and chances of showers. The GFS solution would keep the upper low
far to the northeast over Quebec. Given time range and inherited
forecast, opted to keep low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast
through end of the week.

Temperatures throughout the long range should trend near seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Not much change in the latest set of TAFs, however did push back
the timing of thunderstorms moving in late tonight. Tried to time
the best chance of storms coming in late tonight via the last few
runs of the HRRR. Will see cigs lower to MVFR or lower late
tonight, with some visibility reductions. Unsure at this point in
time how low visibility reduction will be. So, brought in reductions
to MVFR range at KHIB/KINL where am most confident in storms
moving through.

Will see a break in thunderstorm activity Saturday morning as
storms exit. This should bring improving ceilings for a few hours
before another round of storms moves through during the afternoon.
Gusty winds will develop during the morning and continue through
the afternoon as the mixed layer develops. With the next round of
storms moving in hinted at MVFR possibility at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  82  57  78 /  50  80  60  20
INL  65  81  58  69 /  60  80  30  50
BRD  67  86  59  79 /  30  80  20  10
HYR  65  86  59  80 /  40  80  80  10
ASX  60  86  60  80 /  40  80  80  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 242102
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Active weather is expected through Saturday night, with two
rounds of possibly severe convection to cope with in the next 36
hours or so. First, this evening we have continued warm advection
bringing a plume of high RH air into the area, with dewpoints
having risen into the 50s, with values approaching 60 in our
southwest. This is going to make for a muggy night tonight, with
low temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s for most
locations. As usual close to the lake it will be cooler. Might be
a good night to visit Lake Superior this evening! The main
question this evening will be where&when the convection fires. For
now am favoring the high res models which generate convection over
eastern North Dakota and/or northwest Minnesota and surge it north
on the nose of the moisture plume. Some models are generating
convection farther south, but the current analysis seems to favor
a more northerly solution. The question then becomes how far
southeast the convection will spread. In favor of keeping the
convection to the west is the quickly weakening instability to the
east and the mid level flow that should push the convection to the
north once it is generated. However, the convergence and
frontogenesis extend over much of northeast Minnesota after
midnight tonight and may help generate even higher based
convection farther east which should also push northeast. This
convection should weaken and move northeast into Ontario early
Saturday morning, and we should get a period of relatively quiet
weather for a few hours. The afternoon has been our main concern,
with some potential for severe weather in the forecast for several
days now. This event has some similarities to last Sunday`s event,
with a cold front plowing into a deeply unstable airmass with
strong shear. There are some minor differences though that could
keep this from being as significant event as that one was. The
shear is farther west relative to the plume of instability, plus
we appear to be less strongly capped than we were that day. This
is going to cause the thunderstorms to develop earlier, and will
have a narrower time frame in the most favorable environment to
produce severe storms. That said, it still looks like there is
plenty of opportunity to produce initial discrete supercells,
which should evolve into a more linear feature as it moves farther
east. This will also be more limited to the southern few rows of
counties, as Lake Superior may keep things from getting too
unstable over the Arrowhead. The convection should sweep east, and
by the early morning hours be out of the area. Highs on Saturday
may be very warm and muggy with highs pushing into the low 80s at
least. The more sunshine we get the more likely we are to get even
into the mid and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Fairly quiet stretch coming up for much of the long term. Main
concerns at this time are the winds on Sunday afternoon and
thunderstorm chances late in the period.

Stacked low pressure will be found over northwest Ontario Sunday
morning and will gradually push eastward through Monday morning.
With lingering vorticity over the area and weak cool advection aloft
and at the surface, there is a good chance for scattered to isolated
showers, and possibly a rumble or two of thunder, across northern
Minnesota late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Strong
cold air advection behind departing cool front and efficient mixing
in the low-levels, should result in sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph
range with gusts as high as 35 mph. Not expecting advisory criteria
conditions, but later shifts will need to re-evaluate. Lingering
shortwave trough will remain in place early Monday, but think
shower/storm chance will be lower by then.

Upper ridge will build across the Intermountain West with trough
continuing to dig over the East Coast. That pattern leaves the
Northland in a northwest flow regime and generally cut off from
significant sources of moisture. As a result, the chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be low through much of the week. A bolus of
DCVA will move southeast through the Canadian prairies Wednesday
evening and Thursday. The passage of this feature, and associated
surface response, may trigger a few thunderstorms across the area.
At this point, the odds of severe weather with this feature are low.
Model solutions diverge by Friday with the ECMWF bringing an upper
low southward over Ontario, which would yield increased cloud cover
and chances of showers. The GFS solution would keep the upper low
far to the northeast over Quebec. Given time range and inherited
forecast, opted to keep low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast
through end of the week.

Temperatures throughout the long range should trend near seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Not much change from previous set. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
tonight. Usual uncertainty in timing and location of storms
warranted removal of prevailing -TSRA from earlier forecast.
Confidence in a period of storms affecting the HIB and INL
terminals is highest and introduced TEMPO for -TSRA during best
time period. Should storms affects any terminals this afternoon or
tonight...will likely see vsbys lower into MVFR or even IFR
categories through sunrise. Kept a short period of MVFR cigs/vsbys
at locations most likely to be impacted. Conditions should improve
as storms move out Saturday morning. Another round of thunder-
storms is expected to move through the region Saturday, which may
affect the terminals. Timing and confidence in those storms is low
and did not include a mention in this package. Overall confidence
in this set is average.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  82  57  78 /  50  80  60  20
INL  65  81  58  69 /  60  80  30  50
BRD  67  86  59  79 /  30  80  20  10
HYR  65  86  59  80 /  40  80  80  10
ASX  60  86  60  80 /  40  80  80  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KMPX 242042
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This is a perfect scenario of calm weather before the storm in the
next 24-36 hours.

Slight adjustments were made for tonight, and Saturday afternoon
timing of the thunderstorms, but overall stuck close to previous
forecast.

First, a very strong and abnormally deep upper low for late June was
moving across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Models continued
a straight forward forecast with this upper low progged to move
along the Canadian border, from North Dakota, to southern Manitoba
by Saturday evening.

As with previous values of wind shear and instability, models
continued to depict a period that highlights both of these
parameters maximized between 19z Sat - 01z Sun across central
Minnesota early, and then moving southeast into east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin by early evening. 0-6km wind
shear values initially are forecast to be around 25 kts, but are
expected to increase to 30-40 kts by early evening. MLCAPEs range
from 2000-3000 J/kg in west central and central Minnesota at 18z
Saturday, to 1500-2000 J/kg by 00z Sunday in east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin. Other severe weather parameters
including CWASP (Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter on SPC
website) and Helicity also show the potential of organized severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, into the early evening. Latest SPC
Day 2 outlook has portions of east central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin in an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms.
Latest CIPS also support an outbreak with today`s run (12Z Friday)
leaning toward July 14, 2010 which was the Northfield, Lakeville,
Randolph tornado (EF-1). This tornado also affected west central
Wisconsin near Ellsworth that had an EF2 tornado.

In the short term, a few elevated instability showers or
thunderstorms are possible tonight, but latest CAMS do not show any
type of organization or consistency. Therefore, kept isolated or
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The best chance
of more organized or scattered activity will occur in northern
Minnesota after midnight, and drift to the southeast into east
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin toward sunrise. This
is also where some of the local RAP/HRRR convective elements show
some potential. However, if any storms do develop, the amount of
instability and shear is weak enough to limit severe potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be in progress across
eastern MN and western WI at the start of the long term with ample
shear and instability in place. CWASP values are most favorable from
the Twin Cities on north and east. PWAT values at or above 2 inches
are indicated in various model solutions for these same areas.
This is above the daily max for the MPX sounding climatology,
leading to a flooding concern if the storms would begin to train.
The culprit is a strong low pressure system moving eastward across
south central Canada with a trailing cold front arching southward
across MN. The worst of the storms should east of our forecast
area by midnight Saturday night, if not a few hours earlier.

By Sunday, the low pressure system will be just north of MN with
the cold front well east and south of the local area. There will
be a breezy west wind on Sunday, especially across central MN,
but highs will still likely top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Thereafter, the flow aloft will become more northwest with high
pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday. Both days will be
quite pleasant with highs in the 70s along with dew points in the
45 to 55 degree range.

For the balance of the work week, Wednesday through Friday, we`ll
remain in a northwest flow but there will be a few short waves
moving through. Some instability showers and thunderstorms can not
be ruled out during this period. The day with the best chance for
a little precipitation is Thursday, when the strongest of the
waves moves through. High will slowly rise to around 80 by the
time we reach Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Short term concerns are the MVFR ceilings in south central and
east central Minnesota. Later concerns deal with timing of
thunderstorms development, especially Saturday morning after 15z.

Latest regional satellite has the clouds slowly eroding across
southern Minnesota, with only an hour or two at best before the
MVFR ceilings lift or dissipate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue this afternoon and evening with a very slight chance of
thunderstorms developing after 06z. The best and most concentrated
area of thunderstorms look to be across far east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin after 09z. Therefore, will continue
the prob30 in these areas. Otherwise, introduced VCTS after 15z
for most of MPX forecast area. Winds will remain from the south-
southeast today and tonight, and more south-southwest Saturday
morning.

KMSP...

Still some MVFR ceilings near the airport or an hour or two this
afternoon. However, these clouds should lift and dissipate by 20z.
Kept the prob30 in the taf for late tonight based on
uncertainties of convection expected to develop across northern
Minnesota and dive south-southeast toward east central Minnesota
after 09z. Better chances of VCTS will occur after 18z along with
the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Winds will remain from
the south-southeast this afternoon through tonight, and more
south- southwest Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVE...MVFR/IFR Ceilings possible early. Southwest Wind 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 242042
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This is a perfect scenario of calm weather before the storm in the
next 24-36 hours.

Slight adjustments were made for tonight, and Saturday afternoon
timing of the thunderstorms, but overall stuck close to previous
forecast.

First, a very strong and abnormally deep upper low for late June was
moving across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Models continued
a straight forward forecast with this upper low progged to move
along the Canadian border, from North Dakota, to southern Manitoba
by Saturday evening.

As with previous values of wind shear and instability, models
continued to depict a period that highlights both of these
parameters maximized between 19z Sat - 01z Sun across central
Minnesota early, and then moving southeast into east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin by early evening. 0-6km wind
shear values initially are forecast to be around 25 kts, but are
expected to increase to 30-40 kts by early evening. MLCAPEs range
from 2000-3000 J/kg in west central and central Minnesota at 18z
Saturday, to 1500-2000 J/kg by 00z Sunday in east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin. Other severe weather parameters
including CWASP (Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter on SPC
website) and Helicity also show the potential of organized severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, into the early evening. Latest SPC
Day 2 outlook has portions of east central Minnesota and west
central Wisconsin in an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms.
Latest CIPS also support an outbreak with today`s run (12Z Friday)
leaning toward July 14, 2010 which was the Northfield, Lakeville,
Randolph tornado (EF-1). This tornado also affected west central
Wisconsin near Ellsworth that had an EF2 tornado.

In the short term, a few elevated instability showers or
thunderstorms are possible tonight, but latest CAMS do not show any
type of organization or consistency. Therefore, kept isolated or
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The best chance
of more organized or scattered activity will occur in northern
Minnesota after midnight, and drift to the southeast into east
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin toward sunrise. This
is also where some of the local RAP/HRRR convective elements show
some potential. However, if any storms do develop, the amount of
instability and shear is weak enough to limit severe potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 pm CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be in progress across
eastern MN and western WI at the start of the long term with ample
shear and instability in place. CWASP values are most favorable from
the Twin Cities on north and east. PWAT values at or above 2 inches
are indicated in various model solutions for these same areas.
This is above the daily max for the MPX sounding climatology,
leading to a flooding concern if the storms would begin to train.
The culprit is a strong low pressure system moving eastward across
south central Canada with a trailing cold front arching southward
across MN. The worst of the storms should east of our forecast
area by midnight Saturday night, if not a few hours earlier.

By Sunday, the low pressure system will be just north of MN with
the cold front well east and south of the local area. There will
be a breezy west wind on Sunday, especially across central MN,
but highs will still likely top out in the lower to middle 80s.
Thereafter, the flow aloft will become more northwest with high
pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday. Both days will be
quite pleasant with highs in the 70s along with dew points in the
45 to 55 degree range.

For the balance of the work week, Wednesday through Friday, we`ll
remain in a northwest flow but there will be a few short waves
moving through. Some instability showers and thunderstorms can not
be ruled out during this period. The day with the best chance for
a little precipitation is Thursday, when the strongest of the
waves moves through. High will slowly rise to around 80 by the
time we reach Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Short term concerns are the MVFR ceilings in south central and
east central Minnesota. Later concerns deal with timing of
thunderstorms development, especially Saturday morning after 15z.

Latest regional satellite has the clouds slowly eroding across
southern Minnesota, with only an hour or two at best before the
MVFR ceilings lift or dissipate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue this afternoon and evening with a very slight chance of
thunderstorms developing after 06z. The best and most concentrated
area of thunderstorms look to be across far east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin after 09z. Therefore, will continue
the prob30 in these areas. Otherwise, introduced VCTS after 15z
for most of MPX forecast area. Winds will remain from the south-
southeast today and tonight, and more south-southwest Saturday
morning.

KMSP...

Still some MVFR ceilings near the airport or an hour or two this
afternoon. However, these clouds should lift and dissipate by 20z.
Kept the prob30 in the taf for late tonight based on
uncertainties of convection expected to develop across northern
Minnesota and dive south-southeast toward east central Minnesota
after 09z. Better chances of VCTS will occur after 18z along with
the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Winds will remain from
the south-southeast this afternoon through tonight, and more
south- southwest Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVE...MVFR/IFR Ceilings possible early. Southwest Wind 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241755 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Please see updated 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The short term will feature chances for strong to severe storms
both tonight, but more so Saturday afternoon into the evening.

An upper ridge will build over the Northland today shifting east
tonight. This ridge will keep much of the Northland dry today with
highs from the upper seventies to lower eighties. A shortwave
will move through North Dakota today into northwest Minnesota this
evening and into northwest Ontario overnight. Warm air and
moisture advection will be on the increase through the day into
tonight across the region and that and the shortwave will combine
to produce showers and thunderstorms. The storms are expected to
develop late this afternoon or early evening over northwest to
north central Minnesota, with chances increasing further south and
east overnight. A chance will exist across the entire Northland
overnight with probabilities highest far north. Some of the storms
could become quite strong, mainly along and north of highway 2 in
northern Minnesota. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind. PWAT values will rise to
or just over 1.5 inches by 12Z Saturday. Localized heavy rain will
also be possible tonight and NCAR ensemble forecasts show the
probability of 1 hour rainfall rates greater than 1 inch fairly
high over far northern Minnesota.

Overnight convection will have a big impact on the chances for
more severe storms on Saturday as it often does. Many of the
parameters look favorable for severe storms, mainly Saturday
afternoon into the evening and we do think the overnight
convection will dissipate or move out of much of the area through
the morning. A strong upper low will move from the southern
Saskatchewan/northeast Montana area early Saturday morning into
southern Manitoba by 00Z Sunday then continue east/northeast
overnight. Surface low pressure will deepen in response and move
into the Lake Winnipeg/Lake Manitoba area before moving into
Ontario overnight. A strong cold front will move across western
and central Minnesota through the day and through western
Wisconsin in the evening. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper
sixties to lower seventies leading to MLCAPE values from
1500-2500J/KG per forecast soundings. Morning convection and
clouds may limit the instability some and this is one limiting
factor on the severe potential in the afternoon/evening. Mid level
winds will be on the increase through the day causing favorable
0-6km shear and the 0-1km shear is forecast to be from 15 to as
high as 30 knots. The current SPC outlook for severe across the
entire Northland looks good for now and we think all modes of
severe weather will be possible with the most likely being large
hail, damaging wind, and heavy rain possibly leading to localized
flash flooding. Heavy rain will be a threat despite progressive
storm motions as PWAT values of 1.75 inches or higher are forecast
and this is near record levels for this time of year. If better
instability is realized, the 0-1km shear would also favor a
tornado threat.

We have highs only forecast in the lower to mid eighties (cooler
in the Arrowhead) despite the very warm 850mb temperatures due to
expected cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A strong low over southern Manitoba will exit to the east-northeast
late this weekend leading to cooler (and windy!) northwest flow
and a chance for light rain showers Sunday. Northwest flow aloft
will prevail through the rest of the work week leading to cool to
seasonable temperatures and a chance for rain showers mid to late
week as an upper level disturbance approaches the upper Great
Lakes.

After strong to severe storms exit Saturday night, the main concern
Sunday will be strong westerly winds in the wake of the low. Fairly
strong low/mid level winds will easily mix down due to steep low/mid
level lapse rates, with gusts to 30-40 knots possible. Rain showers
expected to develop in the the post-frontal environment mainly north
of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota... but possible anywhere across
the Northland. Cloudy skies could continue through Monday as a mid-
level trough axis associated with the departing low swings through
from north to south Sunday night into Monday, but a clearing trend
is expected beyond that as a strong area of high pressure builds in
(1024+ mb). This high will be centered across northern Minnesota
Tuesday morning, gradually sliding southeastward through mid-week.
This high then remains fairly stationary over Wisconsin through the
work week resulting in sunny skies, seasonable temperatures, and
weak winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Not much change from previous set. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
tonight. Usual uncertainty in timing and location of storms
warranted removal of prevailing -TSRA from earlier forecast.
Confidence in a period of storms affecting the HIB and INL
terminals is highest and introduced TEMPO for -TSRA during best
time period. Should storms affects any terminals this afternoon or
tonight...will likely see vsbys lower into MVFR or even IFR
categories through sunrise. Kept a short period of MVFR cigs/vsbys
at locations most likely to be impacted. Conditions should improve
as storms move out Saturday morning. Another round of thunder-
storms is expected to move through the region Saturday, which may
affect the terminals. Timing and confidence in those storms is low
and did not include a mention in this package. Overall confidence
in this set is average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  61  79  57 /   0  50  80  60
INL  82  65  81  58 /  20  60  80  30
BRD  80  67  84  60 /  10  40  80  10
HYR  80  65  84  59 /   0  40  70  80
ASX  83  60  84  60 /   0  40  70  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Huyck




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241733
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Things will start to become more interesting during the second
portion (tonight) of the short term period as warm advection sets up
ahead of an approaching surface low and upper level short wave
trough. Until then, things will be fairly tranquil. Latest visfog
imagery shows clear skies across the, with some cloudiness and
convection well to the west over the western Dakotas where
conditions similar to what we`ll see later tonight are currently in
place. The upper ridge evident on water vapor imagery to our west
will build across the area today, with some increase in mid/high
clouds as the day progresses.

For tonight, we`ll see a sharp increase in moisture as we get into
return flow ahead of the approaching surface low/trough. 850 mb
theta-e values look to dramatically increase from west to east
between 21Z and 06Z as the moisture axis works into the area. 850-
500 mb differential theta-e values go negative across our Minnesota
area by 03Z and across the remainder of the area by 09Z. With
convective instability obviously in place tonight, the question is
where the forcing will be for SHRA/TSRA. A look at 850-700 mb RH and
frontogenesis suggests the best chance for activity will be from
north central and northeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
NSSL and NCAR WRF ensembles generally agree with that large scale
assessment, and most members focus activity mostly to our north and
east, although a few NSSL WRF members do show a secondary area of
convection in west central and southwest Minnesota. The NAMNEST,
local WRF, 2.5 km GEM, and HiResWindow runs also generally agree
with the bulk of the activity focusing north/east. Went with the
highest PoPs in the north/east portion of the area, with the highest
values after 06Z, but given the degree of elevated instability, and
a few CAMs suggesting activity, did include lower PoPs across the
remainder of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Model solutions still point to a severe weather event occurring
across Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Saturday. The day looks
to start out with scattered activity in or near the forecast area.
The stronger activity is expected during the afternoon and evening
however. By 18z, the cold front looks to be over western
Minnesota, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
warm sector ahead of the front. By 21z, several models forecast
sfc based CAPE values of 4000 J/KG nosing into central and east
central MN. Shear will be increasing at that time as well, in
response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the Northern
Plains. The upper trough will supply a nice pocket of
differential divergence smack dab over the forecast area during
the afternoon as well. Convective mode initially looks to be
supercells, with an evolution to linear mode as the storms congeal
over Wisconsin. Threats early in the event still look to be large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The top CIPS analog for
this event is currently July 14th, 2010, which has been showing
up for several days. While not quite the outbreak that the June
17th, 2010 event was, several tornadoes touched down from
Northfield, MN into west central Wisconsin. There were also
nocturnal/morning waves of convection prior to the main event that
afternoon. June 17th, while not as close of an analog at this
point, is still showing up in the sector to the west, so we`re not
out of the woods yet. With precipitable water values in the 2-2.5
inch range, will also need to keep an eye on the potential for
flash flooding-particularly along and east of Interstate 35.

By 09z Sunday expect the convective line to have cleared west
central Wisconsin, with the main story then transitioning to brisk
west-northwest winds on Sunday in the wake of the front. Speeds of
25 to 35 mph should be common, which should yield sufficient
mixing with the favorable directional component of westerly
allowing temperatures to warm up above normal. Cool surface high
pressure then builds in for the first half of the upcoming week,
which will bring below normal temps. Weak disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft could generate some widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms as the surface high begins to drift southeast on
Wednesday into Thursday. Twenty percent chances have been
included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Short term concerns are the MVFR ceilings in south central and
east central Minnesota. Later concerns deal with timing of
thunderstorms development, especially Saturday morning after 15z.

Latest regional satellite has the clouds slowly eroding across
southern Minnesota, with only an hour or two at best before the
MVFR ceilings lift or dissipate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue this afternoon and evening with a very slight chance of
thunderstorms developing after 06z. The best and most concentrated
area of thunderstorms look to be across far east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin after 09z. Therefore, will continue
the prob30 in these areas. Otherwise, introduced VCTS after 15z
for most of MPX forecast area. Winds will remain from the south-
southeast today and tonight, and more south-southwest Saturday
morning.

KMSP...

Still some MVFR ceilings near the airport or an hour or two this
afternoon. However, these clouds should lift and dissipate by 20z.
Kept the prob30 in the taf for late tonight based on
uncertainties of convection expected to develop across northern
Minnesota and dive south-southeast toward east central Minnesota
after 09z. Better chances of VCTS will occur after 18z along with
the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Winds will remain from
the south-southeast this afternoon through tonight, and more
south- southwest Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVE...MVFR/IFR Ceilings possible early. Southwest Wind 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241733
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Things will start to become more interesting during the second
portion (tonight) of the short term period as warm advection sets up
ahead of an approaching surface low and upper level short wave
trough. Until then, things will be fairly tranquil. Latest visfog
imagery shows clear skies across the, with some cloudiness and
convection well to the west over the western Dakotas where
conditions similar to what we`ll see later tonight are currently in
place. The upper ridge evident on water vapor imagery to our west
will build across the area today, with some increase in mid/high
clouds as the day progresses.

For tonight, we`ll see a sharp increase in moisture as we get into
return flow ahead of the approaching surface low/trough. 850 mb
theta-e values look to dramatically increase from west to east
between 21Z and 06Z as the moisture axis works into the area. 850-
500 mb differential theta-e values go negative across our Minnesota
area by 03Z and across the remainder of the area by 09Z. With
convective instability obviously in place tonight, the question is
where the forcing will be for SHRA/TSRA. A look at 850-700 mb RH and
frontogenesis suggests the best chance for activity will be from
north central and northeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
NSSL and NCAR WRF ensembles generally agree with that large scale
assessment, and most members focus activity mostly to our north and
east, although a few NSSL WRF members do show a secondary area of
convection in west central and southwest Minnesota. The NAMNEST,
local WRF, 2.5 km GEM, and HiResWindow runs also generally agree
with the bulk of the activity focusing north/east. Went with the
highest PoPs in the north/east portion of the area, with the highest
values after 06Z, but given the degree of elevated instability, and
a few CAMs suggesting activity, did include lower PoPs across the
remainder of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Model solutions still point to a severe weather event occurring
across Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Saturday. The day looks
to start out with scattered activity in or near the forecast area.
The stronger activity is expected during the afternoon and evening
however. By 18z, the cold front looks to be over western
Minnesota, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
warm sector ahead of the front. By 21z, several models forecast
sfc based CAPE values of 4000 J/KG nosing into central and east
central MN. Shear will be increasing at that time as well, in
response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the Northern
Plains. The upper trough will supply a nice pocket of
differential divergence smack dab over the forecast area during
the afternoon as well. Convective mode initially looks to be
supercells, with an evolution to linear mode as the storms congeal
over Wisconsin. Threats early in the event still look to be large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The top CIPS analog for
this event is currently July 14th, 2010, which has been showing
up for several days. While not quite the outbreak that the June
17th, 2010 event was, several tornadoes touched down from
Northfield, MN into west central Wisconsin. There were also
nocturnal/morning waves of convection prior to the main event that
afternoon. June 17th, while not as close of an analog at this
point, is still showing up in the sector to the west, so we`re not
out of the woods yet. With precipitable water values in the 2-2.5
inch range, will also need to keep an eye on the potential for
flash flooding-particularly along and east of Interstate 35.

By 09z Sunday expect the convective line to have cleared west
central Wisconsin, with the main story then transitioning to brisk
west-northwest winds on Sunday in the wake of the front. Speeds of
25 to 35 mph should be common, which should yield sufficient
mixing with the favorable directional component of westerly
allowing temperatures to warm up above normal. Cool surface high
pressure then builds in for the first half of the upcoming week,
which will bring below normal temps. Weak disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft could generate some widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms as the surface high begins to drift southeast on
Wednesday into Thursday. Twenty percent chances have been
included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Short term concerns are the MVFR ceilings in south central and
east central Minnesota. Later concerns deal with timing of
thunderstorms development, especially Saturday morning after 15z.

Latest regional satellite has the clouds slowly eroding across
southern Minnesota, with only an hour or two at best before the
MVFR ceilings lift or dissipate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue this afternoon and evening with a very slight chance of
thunderstorms developing after 06z. The best and most concentrated
area of thunderstorms look to be across far east central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin after 09z. Therefore, will continue
the prob30 in these areas. Otherwise, introduced VCTS after 15z
for most of MPX forecast area. Winds will remain from the south-
southeast today and tonight, and more south-southwest Saturday
morning.

KMSP...

Still some MVFR ceilings near the airport or an hour or two this
afternoon. However, these clouds should lift and dissipate by 20z.
Kept the prob30 in the taf for late tonight based on
uncertainties of convection expected to develop across northern
Minnesota and dive south-southeast toward east central Minnesota
after 09z. Better chances of VCTS will occur after 18z along with
the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Winds will remain from
the south-southeast this afternoon through tonight, and more
south- southwest Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVE...MVFR/IFR Ceilings possible early. Southwest Wind 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. West wind 10-20 kts becoming northwest.
MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kts becoming east 5 kts or less.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 241147
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The short term will feature chances for strong to severe storms
both tonight, but more so Saturday afternoon into the evening.

An upper ridge will build over the Northland today shifting east
tonight. This ridge will keep much of the Northland dry today with
highs from the upper seventies to lower eighties. A shortwave
will move through North Dakota today into northwest Minnesota this
evening and into northwest Ontario overnight. Warm air and
moisture advection will be on the increase through the day into
tonight across the region and that and the shortwave will combine
to produce showers and thunderstorms. The storms are expected to
develop late this afternoon or early evening over northwest to
north central Minnesota, with chances increasing further south and
east overnight. A chance will exist across the entire Northland
overnight with probabilities highest far north. Some of the storms
could become quite strong, mainly along and north of highway 2 in
northern Minnesota. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind. PWAT values will rise to
or just over 1.5 inches by 12Z Saturday. Localized heavy rain will
also be possible tonight and NCAR ensemble forecasts show the
probability of 1 hour rainfall rates greater than 1 inch fairly
high over far northern Minnesota.

Overnight convection will have a big impact on the chances for
more severe storms on Saturday as it often does. Many of the
parameters look favorable for severe storms, mainly Saturday
afternoon into the evening and we do think the overnight
convection will dissipate or move out of much of the area through
the morning. A strong upper low will move from the southern
Saskatchewan/northeast Montana area early Saturday morning into
southern Manitoba by 00Z Sunday then continue east/northeast
overnight. Surface low pressure will deepen in response and move
into the Lake Winnipeg/Lake Manitoba area before moving into
Ontario overnight. A strong cold front will move across western
and central Minnesota through the day and through western
Wisconsin in the evening. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper
sixties to lower seventies leading to MLCAPE values from
1500-2500J/KG per forecast soundings. Morning convection and
clouds may limit the instability some and this is one limiting
factor on the severe potential in the afternoon/evening. Mid level
winds will be on the increase through the day causing favorable
0-6km shear and the 0-1km shear is forecast to be from 15 to as
high as 30 knots. The current SPC outlook for severe across the
entire Northland looks good for now and we think all modes of
severe weather will be possible with the most likely being large
hail, damaging wind, and heavy rain possibly leading to localized
flash flooding. Heavy rain will be a threat despite progressive
storm motions as PWAT values of 1.75 inches or higher are forecast
and this is near record levels for this time of year. If better
instability is realized, the 0-1km shear would also favor a
tornado threat.

We have highs only forecast in the lower to mid eighties (cooler
in the Arrowhead) despite the very warm 850mb temperatures due to
expected cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A strong low over southern Manitoba will exit to the east-northeast
late this weekend leading to cooler (and windy!) northwest flow
and a chance for light rain showers Sunday. Northwest flow aloft
will prevail through the rest of the work week leading to cool to
seasonable temperatures and a chance for rain showers mid to late
week as an upper level disturbance approaches the upper Great
Lakes.

After strong to severe storms exit Saturday night, the main concern
Sunday will be strong westerly winds in the wake of the low. Fairly
strong low/mid level winds will easily mix down due to steep low/mid
level lapse rates, with gusts to 30-40 knots possible. Rain showers
expected to develop in the the post-frontal environment mainly north
of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota... but possible anywhere across
the Northland. Cloudy skies could continue through Monday as a mid-
level trough axis associated with the departing low swings through
from north to south Sunday night into Monday, but a clearing trend
is expected beyond that as a strong area of high pressure builds in
(1024+ mb). This high will be centered across northern Minnesota
Tuesday morning, gradually sliding southeastward through mid-week.
This high then remains fairly stationary over Wisconsin through the
work week resulting in sunny skies, seasonable temperatures, and
weak winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours across
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but this evening and
especially late tonight scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region. These storms will lead to lowering
ceilings to MVFR/IFR at times as well as MVFR to briefly IFR
visibility due to heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  61  79  57 /   0  50  80  60
INL  82  65  81  58 /  20  60  80  30
BRD  80  67  84  60 /  10  40  80  10
HYR  80  65  84  59 /   0  40  70  80
ASX  83  60  84  60 /   0  40  70  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241118
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Things will start to become more interesting during the second
portion (tonight) of the short term period as warm advection sets up
ahead of an approaching surface low and upper level short wave
trough. Until then, things will be fairly tranquil. Latest visfog
imagery shows clear skies across the, with some cloudiness and
convection well to the west over the western Dakotas where
conditions similar to what we`ll see later tonight are currently in
place. The upper ridge evident on water vapor imagery to our west
will build across the area today, with some increase in mid/high
clouds as the day progresses.

For tonight, we`ll see a sharp increase in moisture as we get into
return flow ahead of the approaching surface low/trough. 850 mb
theta-e values look to dramatically increase from west to east
between 21Z and 06Z as the moisture axis works into the area. 850-
500 mb differential theta-e values go negative across our Minnesota
area by 03Z and across the remainder of the area by 09Z. With
convective instability obviously in place tonight, the question is
where the forcing will be for SHRA/TSRA. A look at 850-700 mb RH and
frontogenesis suggests the best chance for activity will be from
north central and northeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
NSSL and NCAR WRF ensembles generally agree with that large scale
assessment, and most members focus activity mostly to our north and
east, although a few NSSL WRF members do show a secondary area of
convection in west central and southwest Minnesota. The NAMNEST,
local WRF, 2.5 km GEM, and HiResWindow runs also generally agree
with the bulk of the activity focusing north/east. Went with the
highest PoPs in the north/east portion of the area, with the highest
values after 06Z, but given the degree of elevated instability, and
a few CAMs suggesting activity, did include lower PoPs across the
remainder of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Model solutions still point to a severe weather event occurring
across Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Saturday. The day looks
to start out with scattered activity in or near the forecast area.
The stronger activity is expected during the afternoon and evening
however. By 18z, the cold front looks to be over western
Minnesota, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
warm sector ahead of the front. By 21z, several models forecast
sfc based CAPE values of 4000 J/KG nosing into central and east
central MN. Shear will be increasing at that time as well, in
response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the Northern
Plains. The upper trough will supply a nice pocket of
differential divergence smack dab over the forecast area during
the afternoon as well. Convective mode initially looks to be
supercells, with an evolution to linear mode as the storms congeal
over Wisconsin. Threats early in the event still look to be large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The top CIPS analog for
this event is currently July 14th, 2010, which has been showing
up for several days. While not quite the outbreak that the June
17th, 2010 event was, several tornadoes touched down from
Northfield, MN into west central Wisconsin. There were also
nocturnal/morning waves of convection prior to the main event that
afternoon. June 17th, while not as close of an analog at this
point, is still showing up in the sector to the west, so we`re not
out of the woods yet. With precipitable water values in the 2-2.5
inch range, will also need to keep an eye on the potential for
flash flooding-particularly along and east of Interstate 35.

By 09z Sunday expect the convective line to have cleared west
central Wisconsin, with the main story then transitioning to brisk
west-northwest winds on Sunday in the wake of the front. Speeds of
25 to 35 mph should be common, which should yield sufficient
mixing with the favorable directional component of westerly
allowing temperatures to warm up above normal. Cool surface high
pressure then builds in for the first half of the upcoming week,
which will bring below normal temps. Weak disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft could generate some widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms as the surface high begins to drift southeast on
Wednesday into Thursday. Twenty percent chances have been
included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Most if not all of the period looks to be VFR across the area. The
only potential issue would be the possibility of SHRA/TSRA late
tonight as warm advection and elevated instability work into the
area. Most indications are that activity should mainly be north
and/or east of the forecast area, but there is sufficient
uncertainty to include some mention for KRNH and KMSP late
tonight. If that occurs then there could certainly be a period of
MVFR and possible IFR conditions.

KMSP...Only area of concern and lower confidence is with the
possibility of lower ceilings and visibilities late tonight as
discussed above, otherwise conditions are benign.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Saturday afternoon...MVFR/IFR conditions possible with showers and
thunderstorms. South wind 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR conditions possible early with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 10 to 20 kt becoming
west 5 to 15 kt.
Sunday and Sunday night...VFR. West wind 10 to 20 kt becoming
northwest.
Monday and Monday night...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt becoming
east 5 kt or less.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 241118
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Things will start to become more interesting during the second
portion (tonight) of the short term period as warm advection sets up
ahead of an approaching surface low and upper level short wave
trough. Until then, things will be fairly tranquil. Latest visfog
imagery shows clear skies across the, with some cloudiness and
convection well to the west over the western Dakotas where
conditions similar to what we`ll see later tonight are currently in
place. The upper ridge evident on water vapor imagery to our west
will build across the area today, with some increase in mid/high
clouds as the day progresses.

For tonight, we`ll see a sharp increase in moisture as we get into
return flow ahead of the approaching surface low/trough. 850 mb
theta-e values look to dramatically increase from west to east
between 21Z and 06Z as the moisture axis works into the area. 850-
500 mb differential theta-e values go negative across our Minnesota
area by 03Z and across the remainder of the area by 09Z. With
convective instability obviously in place tonight, the question is
where the forcing will be for SHRA/TSRA. A look at 850-700 mb RH and
frontogenesis suggests the best chance for activity will be from
north central and northeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
NSSL and NCAR WRF ensembles generally agree with that large scale
assessment, and most members focus activity mostly to our north and
east, although a few NSSL WRF members do show a secondary area of
convection in west central and southwest Minnesota. The NAMNEST,
local WRF, 2.5 km GEM, and HiResWindow runs also generally agree
with the bulk of the activity focusing north/east. Went with the
highest PoPs in the north/east portion of the area, with the highest
values after 06Z, but given the degree of elevated instability, and
a few CAMs suggesting activity, did include lower PoPs across the
remainder of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Model solutions still point to a severe weather event occurring
across Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Saturday. The day looks
to start out with scattered activity in or near the forecast area.
The stronger activity is expected during the afternoon and evening
however. By 18z, the cold front looks to be over western
Minnesota, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
warm sector ahead of the front. By 21z, several models forecast
sfc based CAPE values of 4000 J/KG nosing into central and east
central MN. Shear will be increasing at that time as well, in
response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the Northern
Plains. The upper trough will supply a nice pocket of
differential divergence smack dab over the forecast area during
the afternoon as well. Convective mode initially looks to be
supercells, with an evolution to linear mode as the storms congeal
over Wisconsin. Threats early in the event still look to be large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The top CIPS analog for
this event is currently July 14th, 2010, which has been showing
up for several days. While not quite the outbreak that the June
17th, 2010 event was, several tornadoes touched down from
Northfield, MN into west central Wisconsin. There were also
nocturnal/morning waves of convection prior to the main event that
afternoon. June 17th, while not as close of an analog at this
point, is still showing up in the sector to the west, so we`re not
out of the woods yet. With precipitable water values in the 2-2.5
inch range, will also need to keep an eye on the potential for
flash flooding-particularly along and east of Interstate 35.

By 09z Sunday expect the convective line to have cleared west
central Wisconsin, with the main story then transitioning to brisk
west-northwest winds on Sunday in the wake of the front. Speeds of
25 to 35 mph should be common, which should yield sufficient
mixing with the favorable directional component of westerly
allowing temperatures to warm up above normal. Cool surface high
pressure then builds in for the first half of the upcoming week,
which will bring below normal temps. Weak disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft could generate some widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms as the surface high begins to drift southeast on
Wednesday into Thursday. Twenty percent chances have been
included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Most if not all of the period looks to be VFR across the area. The
only potential issue would be the possibility of SHRA/TSRA late
tonight as warm advection and elevated instability work into the
area. Most indications are that activity should mainly be north
and/or east of the forecast area, but there is sufficient
uncertainty to include some mention for KRNH and KMSP late
tonight. If that occurs then there could certainly be a period of
MVFR and possible IFR conditions.

KMSP...Only area of concern and lower confidence is with the
possibility of lower ceilings and visibilities late tonight as
discussed above, otherwise conditions are benign.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Saturday afternoon...MVFR/IFR conditions possible with showers and
thunderstorms. South wind 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR conditions possible early with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 10 to 20 kt becoming
west 5 to 15 kt.
Sunday and Sunday night...VFR. West wind 10 to 20 kt becoming
northwest.
Monday and Monday night...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt becoming
east 5 kt or less.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 240932
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
432 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The short term will feature chances for strong to severe storms
both tonight, but more so Saturday afternoon into the evening.

An upper ridge will build over the Northland today shifting east
tonight. This ridge will keep much of the Northland dry today with
highs from the upper seventies to lower eighties. A shortwave
will move through North Dakota today into northwest Minnesota this
evening and into northwest Ontario overnight. Warm air and
moisture advection will be on the increase through the day into
tonight across the region and that and the shortwave will combine
to produce showers and thunderstorms. The storms are expected to
develop late this afternoon or early evening over northwest to
north central Minnesota, with chances increasing further south and
east overnight. A chance will exist across the entire Northland
overnight with probabilities highest far north. Some of the storms
could become quite strong, mainly along and north of highway 2 in
northern Minnesota. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind. PWAT values will rise to
or just over 1.5 inches by 12Z Saturday. Localized heavy rain will
also be possible tonight and NCAR ensemble forecasts show the
probability of 1 hour rainfall rates greater than 1 inch fairly
high over far northern Minnesota.

Overnight convection will have a big impact on the chances for
more severe storms on Saturday as it often does. Many of the
parameters look favorable for severe storms, mainly Saturday
afternoon into the evening and we do think the overnight
convection will dissipate or move out of much of the area through
the morning. A strong upper low will move from the southern
Saskatchewan/northeast Montana area early Saturday morning into
southern Manitoba by 00Z Sunday then continue east/northeast
overnight. Surface low pressure will deepen in response and move
into the Lake Winnipeg/Lake Manitoba area before moving into
Ontario overnight. A strong cold front will move across western
and central Minnesota through the day and through western
Wisconsin in the evening. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper
sixties to lower seventies leading to MLCAPE values from
1500-2500J/KG per forecast soundings. Morning convection and
clouds may limit the instability some and this is one limiting
factor on the severe potential in the afternoon/evening. Mid level
winds will be on the increase through the day causing favorable
0-6km shear and the 0-1km shear is forecast to be from 15 to as
high as 30 knots. The current SPC outlook for severe across the
entire Northland looks good for now and we think all modes of
severe weather will be possible with the most likely being large
hail, damaging wind, and heavy rain possibly leading to localized
flash flooding. Heavy rain will be a threat despite progressive
storm motions as PWAT values of 1.75 inches or higher are forecast
and this is near record levels for this time of year. If better
instability is realized, the 0-1km shear would also favor a
tornado threat.

We have highs only forecast in the lower to mid eighties (cooler
in the Arrowhead) despite the very warm 850mb temperatures due to
expected cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A strong low over southern Manitoba will exit to the east-northeast
late this weekend leading to cooler (and windy!) northwest flow
and a chance for light rain showers Sunday. Northwest flow aloft
will prevail through the rest of the work week leading to cool to
seasonable temperatures and a chance for rain showers mid to late
week as an upper level disturbance approaches the upper Great
Lakes.

After strong to severe storms exit Saturday night, the main concern
Sunday will be strong westerly winds in the wake of the low. Fairly
strong low/mid level winds will easily mix down due to steep low/mid
level lapse rates, with gusts to 30-40 knots possible. Rain showers
expected to develop in the the post-frontal environment mainly north
of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota... but possible anywhere across
the Northland. Cloudy skies could continue through Monday as a mid-
level trough axis associated with the departing low swings through
from north to south Sunday night into Monday, but a clearing trend
is expected beyond that as a strong area of high pressure builds in
(1024+ mb). This high will be centered across northern Minnesota
Tuesday morning, gradually sliding southeastward through mid-week.
This high then remains fairly stationary over Wisconsin through the
work week resulting in sunny skies, seasonable temperatures, and
weak winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Behind the high, an area of low
pressure will move into eastern North Dakota. This will result in
VFR conditions through much of the forecast.

The main concern overnight is radiation fog, which has already
developed due to light winds, clear skies and recent
precipitation. Mentioned fog at all terminals except for KDLH, as
winds should be too high for fog development. Per the latest
surface observations will see visibilities range anywhere from
MVFR to LIFR. Most confident in fog development at KHYR/KBRD/KHIB,
but only hinted at IFR visibility. Think that these sites are most
likely to see LIFR visibility, but have very low confidence on
when and how long.

Will see gusty winds develop tomorrow as the pressure gradient
tightens. Showers and thunderstorms will move in towards the end
of the latest TAF cycle. Unsure on how widespread thunderstorm
activity will be at this time, so left in as VCSH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  61  79  57 /   0  50  80  60
INL  82  65  81  58 /  20  60  80  30
BRD  80  67  84  60 /  10  40  80  10
HYR  80  65  84  59 /   0  40  70  80
ASX  83  60  84  60 /   0  40  70  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240844
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Things will start to become more interesting during the second
portion (tonight) of the short term period as warm advection sets up
ahead of an approaching surface low and upper level short wave
trough. Until then, things will be fairly tranquil. Latest visfog
imagery shows clear skies across the, with some cloudiness and
convection well to the west over the western Dakotas where
conditions similar to what we`ll see later tonight are currently in
place. The upper ridge evident on water vapor imagery to our west
will build across the area today, with some increase in mid/high
clouds as the day progresses.

For tonight, we`ll see a sharp increase in moisture as we get into
return flow ahead of the approaching surface low/trough. 850 mb
theta-e values look to dramatically increase from west to east
between 21Z and 06Z as the moisture axis works into the area. 850-
500 mb differential theta-e values go negative across our Minnesota
area by 03Z and across the remainder of the area by 09Z. With
convective instability obviously in place tonight, the question is
where the forcing will be for SHRA/TSRA. A look at 850-700 mb RH and
frontogenesis suggests the best chance for activity will be from
north central and northeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
NSSL and NCAR WRF ensembles generally agree with that large scale
assessment, and most members focus activity mostly to our north and
east, although a few NSSL WRF members do show a secondary area of
convection in west central and southwest Minnesota. The NAMNEST,
local WRF, 2.5 km GEM, and HiResWindow runs also generally agree
with the bulk of the activity focusing north/east. Went with the
highest PoPs in the north/east portion of the area, with the highest
values after 06Z, but given the degree of elevated instability, and
a few CAMs suggesting activity, did include lower PoPs across the
remainder of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Model solutions still point to a severe weather event occurring
across Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Saturday. The day looks
to start out with scattered activity in or near the forecast area.
The stronger activity is expected during the afternoon and evening
however. By 18z, the cold front looks to be over western
Minnesota, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
warm sector ahead of the front. By 21z, several models forecast
sfc based CAPE values of 4000 J/KG nosing into central and east
central MN. Shear will be increasing at that time as well, in
response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the Northern
Plains. The upper trough will supply a nice pocket of
differential divergence smack dab over the forecast area during
the afternoon as well. Convective mode initially looks to be
supercells, with an evolution to linear mode as the storms congeal
over Wisconsin. Threats early in the event still look to be large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The top CIPS analog for
this event is currently July 14th, 2010, which has been showing
up for several days. While not quite the outbreak that the June
17th, 2010 event was, several tornadoes touched down from
Northfield, MN into west central Wisconsin. There were also
nocturnal/morning waves of convection prior to the main event that
afternoon. June 17th, while not as close of an analog at this
point, is still showing up in the sector to the west, so we`re not
out of the woods yet. With precipitable water values in the 2-2.5
inch range, will also need to keep an eye on the potential for
flash flooding-particularly along and east of Interstate 35.

By 09z Sunday expect the convective line to have cleared west
central Wisconsin, with the main story then transitioning to brisk
west-northwest winds on Sunday in the wake of the front. Speeds of
25 to 35 mph should be common, which should yield sufficient
mixing with the favorable directional component of westerly
allowing temperatures to warm up above normal. Cool surface high
pressure then builds in for the first half of the upcoming week,
which will bring below normal temps. Weak disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft could generate some widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms as the surface high begins to drift southeast on
Wednesday into Thursday. Twenty percent chances have been
included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period,
with the only exception of perhaps some patchy fog across western
WI later tonight. Winds will strengthen Friday, with some gusts
exceeding 20 kt across western MN.

KMSP...Not much to be concerned about until late Friday night. A
few storms may fire nearby, with the best chances north and east
after 09z Saturday. Fog should stay away tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 240555
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain showers over northwest Wisconsin this morning have dissipated
this afternoon, and while we are seeing some well developed cumulus
over the Arrowhead so far, am only seeing some weak echoes on radar
that are likely not producing more than virga or some sprinkles.
Will have to keep an eye on this trend as if it gets any more
widespread I will have to add pops into the forecast.  Otherwise,
the forecast for the next 24 hours with the surface ridge building
across the area keeping the weather generally quiet through Friday
mid afternoon.  South flow will set up over the area on Friday ahead
of our weekend storm system, which should bring increasing winds and
higher dew points into the area. Temperatures to warm  over today,
with most locations rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a
trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through
the weekend. An MCS is expected to develop to the west Friday
Night, spreading into Minnesota later in the night. By 12Z
Saturday, the surface low is expected to be in the eastern
Dakotas, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area
overnight Friday night. Surface low pressure will become dominant
over south central Canada on Saturday, as a cold front pushes
eastward across the area Saturday and Saturday Night. This looks
like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland,
although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating
that is able to generate ahead of the cold front. It should be
plenty unstable, but the main question is whether there will be
enough surface heating at this point. Nonetheless, we should be
able to generate some storms with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The cold front will march eastward by Sunday
morning, putting our CWA into a dry slot by 12Z Sunday. The low
pressure system moving across south central Canada will really
wind up on Saturday Night and Sunday, with strong winds expected
for Sunday. Wrap around showers will also become common across the
area on Sunday, especially the northern half of the CWA. The
chance of wrap around showers will diminish Sunday Night and
Monday, with high pressure and upper level ridging then moving in
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will range from the 80s on
Saturday, to the 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. It will be in the
60s to around 70 on Monday. Highs will then be in the 70s for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Behind the high, an area of low
pressure will move into eastern North Dakota. This will result in
VFR conditions through much of the forecast.

The main concern overnight is radiation fog, which has already
developed due to light winds, clear skies and recent
precipitation. Mentioned fog at all terminals except for KDLH, as
winds should be too high for fog development. Per the latest
surface observations will see visibilities range anywhere from
MVFR to LIFR. Most confident in fog development at KHYR/KBRD/KHIB,
but only hinted at IFR visibility. Think that these sites are most
likely to see LIFR visibility, but have very low confidence on
when and how long.

Will see gusty winds develop tomorrow as the pressure gradient
tightens. Showers and thunderstorms will move in towards the end
of the latest TAF cycle. Unsure on how widespread thunderstorm
activity will be at this time, so left in as VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  40  70
INL  52  81  64  82 /   0  20  60  70
BRD  55  79  66  85 /   0  30  40  70
HYR  51  79  64  85 /  10   0  30  70
ASX  53  81  59  85 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 240555
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain showers over northwest Wisconsin this morning have dissipated
this afternoon, and while we are seeing some well developed cumulus
over the Arrowhead so far, am only seeing some weak echoes on radar
that are likely not producing more than virga or some sprinkles.
Will have to keep an eye on this trend as if it gets any more
widespread I will have to add pops into the forecast.  Otherwise,
the forecast for the next 24 hours with the surface ridge building
across the area keeping the weather generally quiet through Friday
mid afternoon.  South flow will set up over the area on Friday ahead
of our weekend storm system, which should bring increasing winds and
higher dew points into the area. Temperatures to warm  over today,
with most locations rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a
trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through
the weekend. An MCS is expected to develop to the west Friday
Night, spreading into Minnesota later in the night. By 12Z
Saturday, the surface low is expected to be in the eastern
Dakotas, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area
overnight Friday night. Surface low pressure will become dominant
over south central Canada on Saturday, as a cold front pushes
eastward across the area Saturday and Saturday Night. This looks
like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland,
although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating
that is able to generate ahead of the cold front. It should be
plenty unstable, but the main question is whether there will be
enough surface heating at this point. Nonetheless, we should be
able to generate some storms with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The cold front will march eastward by Sunday
morning, putting our CWA into a dry slot by 12Z Sunday. The low
pressure system moving across south central Canada will really
wind up on Saturday Night and Sunday, with strong winds expected
for Sunday. Wrap around showers will also become common across the
area on Sunday, especially the northern half of the CWA. The
chance of wrap around showers will diminish Sunday Night and
Monday, with high pressure and upper level ridging then moving in
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will range from the 80s on
Saturday, to the 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. It will be in the
60s to around 70 on Monday. Highs will then be in the 70s for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Behind the high, an area of low
pressure will move into eastern North Dakota. This will result in
VFR conditions through much of the forecast.

The main concern overnight is radiation fog, which has already
developed due to light winds, clear skies and recent
precipitation. Mentioned fog at all terminals except for KDLH, as
winds should be too high for fog development. Per the latest
surface observations will see visibilities range anywhere from
MVFR to LIFR. Most confident in fog development at KHYR/KBRD/KHIB,
but only hinted at IFR visibility. Think that these sites are most
likely to see LIFR visibility, but have very low confidence on
when and how long.

Will see gusty winds develop tomorrow as the pressure gradient
tightens. Showers and thunderstorms will move in towards the end
of the latest TAF cycle. Unsure on how widespread thunderstorm
activity will be at this time, so left in as VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  40  70
INL  52  81  64  82 /   0  20  60  70
BRD  55  79  66  85 /   0  30  40  70
HYR  51  79  64  85 /  10   0  30  70
ASX  53  81  59  85 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240500 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A quiet short term period ahead.  Currently, high pressure continues
to build in from the west, with a stubborn stratus deck still parked
over western Wisconsin and extreme eastern Minnesota.  Clear skies
are apparent elsewhere.  Expecting the skies to generally clear from
tonight from west to east.  Did add a mention of patchy fog to the
forecast for mainly western Wisconsin as the surface high comes
through overnight and winds go calm.  With this air mass working in,
will continue to keep the heat at bay to our southwest.  Lows
overnight will generally fall into the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, the high will push east of our area and a developing
system to our west will get southerly flow going through the day,
especially across western Minnesota where the gradient becomes
stronger by the afternoon. Warm air advection really gets going in
the afternoon across the area as 850mb temps surge to about +20C by
tomorrow evening.  Hence, calling for a much warmer day with temps
topping out in the low to mid 80s and the dew points rising well
into the 60s during the afternoon.  No precipitation expected this
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast concern remains the potential of a severe weather
outbreak Saturday as similar patterns in the past represent a high
probability of a significant weather including tornadoes,
very large hail and damaging winds.

Overall, the timing of thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon
will be critical in terms of instability and wind shear. Some of the
latest CAMS support thunderstorm initiation between 18-21z west of
the Twin Cities metro area and have them rapidly moving off into
western Wisconsin between 21-00z.

Large scale ascent remains very strong and will be associated with
an upper low forecast to move along the U.S, Canadian (Along the
North Dakota border) Saturday. Both the 50/25H Jets intensify
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and into western
Minnesota. There remains uncertainty on morning convection and
instability recovery in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
However, looking at the June 17, 2010 outbreak in Minnesota, the
morning sounding did not have ample instability, and it was the low
level shear that dominated the outbreak by the late afternoon.
Actually the latest run (CIPS) has a much better atmosphere (12Z
June 25, 2016) in terms of instability and lapse rates compared to
June 17, 2010.  There is no question that supercell thunderstorms
will develop across Minnesota/Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and
evening. The main question is whether it will be tornadic supercells
or a realm of other significant severe weather including damaging
straight line winds and/or very large hail. Persons who have outdoor
activities or any activity involving large number of individuals
need to pay attention on how the weather parameters evolve.

By late Saturday night, the mean upper level wind pattern will
become northwest, which leads to cooler and drier weather for next
week. There should be several days of rain-free conditions as this
pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period,
with the only exception of perhaps some patchy fog across western
WI later tonight. Winds will strengthen Friday, with some gusts
exceeding 20 kt across western MN.

KMSP...Not much to be concerned about until late Friday night. A
few storms may fire nearby, with the best chances north and east
after 09z Saturday. Fog should stay away tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 240500 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A quiet short term period ahead.  Currently, high pressure continues
to build in from the west, with a stubborn stratus deck still parked
over western Wisconsin and extreme eastern Minnesota.  Clear skies
are apparent elsewhere.  Expecting the skies to generally clear from
tonight from west to east.  Did add a mention of patchy fog to the
forecast for mainly western Wisconsin as the surface high comes
through overnight and winds go calm.  With this air mass working in,
will continue to keep the heat at bay to our southwest.  Lows
overnight will generally fall into the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, the high will push east of our area and a developing
system to our west will get southerly flow going through the day,
especially across western Minnesota where the gradient becomes
stronger by the afternoon. Warm air advection really gets going in
the afternoon across the area as 850mb temps surge to about +20C by
tomorrow evening.  Hence, calling for a much warmer day with temps
topping out in the low to mid 80s and the dew points rising well
into the 60s during the afternoon.  No precipitation expected this
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast concern remains the potential of a severe weather
outbreak Saturday as similar patterns in the past represent a high
probability of a significant weather including tornadoes,
very large hail and damaging winds.

Overall, the timing of thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon
will be critical in terms of instability and wind shear. Some of the
latest CAMS support thunderstorm initiation between 18-21z west of
the Twin Cities metro area and have them rapidly moving off into
western Wisconsin between 21-00z.

Large scale ascent remains very strong and will be associated with
an upper low forecast to move along the U.S, Canadian (Along the
North Dakota border) Saturday. Both the 50/25H Jets intensify
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and into western
Minnesota. There remains uncertainty on morning convection and
instability recovery in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
However, looking at the June 17, 2010 outbreak in Minnesota, the
morning sounding did not have ample instability, and it was the low
level shear that dominated the outbreak by the late afternoon.
Actually the latest run (CIPS) has a much better atmosphere (12Z
June 25, 2016) in terms of instability and lapse rates compared to
June 17, 2010.  There is no question that supercell thunderstorms
will develop across Minnesota/Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and
evening. The main question is whether it will be tornadic supercells
or a realm of other significant severe weather including damaging
straight line winds and/or very large hail. Persons who have outdoor
activities or any activity involving large number of individuals
need to pay attention on how the weather parameters evolve.

By late Saturday night, the mean upper level wind pattern will
become northwest, which leads to cooler and drier weather for next
week. There should be several days of rain-free conditions as this
pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period,
with the only exception of perhaps some patchy fog across western
WI later tonight. Winds will strengthen Friday, with some gusts
exceeding 20 kt across western MN.

KMSP...Not much to be concerned about until late Friday night. A
few storms may fire nearby, with the best chances north and east
after 09z Saturday. Fog should stay away tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 232353
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
653 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain showers over northwest Wisconsin this morning have dissipated
this afternoon, and while we are seeing some well developed cumulus
over the Arrowhead so far, am only seeing some weak echoes on radar
that are likely not producing more than virga or some sprinkles.
Will have to keep an eye on this trend as if it gets any more
widespread I will have to add pops into the forecast.  Otherwise,
the forecast for the next 24 hours with the surface ridge building
across the area keeping the weather generally quiet through Friday
mid afternoon.  South flow will set up over the area on Friday ahead
of our weekend storm system, which should bring increasing winds and
higher dew points into the area. Temperatures to warm  over today,
with most locations rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a
trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through
the weekend. An MCS is expected to develop to the west Friday
Night, spreading into Minnesota later in the night. By 12Z
Saturday, the surface low is expected to be in the eastern
Dakotas, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area
overnight Friday night. Surface low pressure will become dominant
over south central Canada on Saturday, as a cold front pushes
eastward across the area Saturday and Saturday Night. This looks
like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland,
although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating
that is able to generate ahead of the cold front. It should be
plenty unstable, but the main question is whether there will be
enough surface heating at this point. Nonetheless, we should be
able to generate some storms with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The cold front will march eastward by Sunday
morning, putting our CWA into a dry slot by 12Z Sunday. The low
pressure system moving across south central Canada will really
wind up on Saturday Night and Sunday, with strong winds expected
for Sunday. Wrap around showers will also become common across the
area on Sunday, especially the northern half of the CWA. The
chance of wrap around showers will diminish Sunday Night and
Monday, with high pressure and upper level ridging then moving in
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will range from the 80s on
Saturday, to the 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. It will be in the
60s to around 70 on Monday. Highs will then be in the 70s for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the upcoming forecast
as high pressure moves through the area. There is a possibility of
radiation fog development at KHYR and KBRD overnight due to light
winds, clear skies and recent precipitation. Used the latest NAM
MOS and RAP guidance to get the timing of fog development. Unsure
at this point in time how low the visibility will get, so kept in
the MVFR range.

Will see gusty winds develop Friday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens with a low moving in North Dakota and the high
over the Central Great Lakes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  40  70
INL  52  81  64  82 /   0  20  60  70
BRD  55  79  66  85 /   0  30  40  70
HYR  51  79  64  85 /  10   0  30  70
ASX  53  81  59  85 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 232353
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
653 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain showers over northwest Wisconsin this morning have dissipated
this afternoon, and while we are seeing some well developed cumulus
over the Arrowhead so far, am only seeing some weak echoes on radar
that are likely not producing more than virga or some sprinkles.
Will have to keep an eye on this trend as if it gets any more
widespread I will have to add pops into the forecast.  Otherwise,
the forecast for the next 24 hours with the surface ridge building
across the area keeping the weather generally quiet through Friday
mid afternoon.  South flow will set up over the area on Friday ahead
of our weekend storm system, which should bring increasing winds and
higher dew points into the area. Temperatures to warm  over today,
with most locations rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a
trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through
the weekend. An MCS is expected to develop to the west Friday
Night, spreading into Minnesota later in the night. By 12Z
Saturday, the surface low is expected to be in the eastern
Dakotas, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area
overnight Friday night. Surface low pressure will become dominant
over south central Canada on Saturday, as a cold front pushes
eastward across the area Saturday and Saturday Night. This looks
like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland,
although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating
that is able to generate ahead of the cold front. It should be
plenty unstable, but the main question is whether there will be
enough surface heating at this point. Nonetheless, we should be
able to generate some storms with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The cold front will march eastward by Sunday
morning, putting our CWA into a dry slot by 12Z Sunday. The low
pressure system moving across south central Canada will really
wind up on Saturday Night and Sunday, with strong winds expected
for Sunday. Wrap around showers will also become common across the
area on Sunday, especially the northern half of the CWA. The
chance of wrap around showers will diminish Sunday Night and
Monday, with high pressure and upper level ridging then moving in
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will range from the 80s on
Saturday, to the 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. It will be in the
60s to around 70 on Monday. Highs will then be in the 70s for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the upcoming forecast
as high pressure moves through the area. There is a possibility of
radiation fog development at KHYR and KBRD overnight due to light
winds, clear skies and recent precipitation. Used the latest NAM
MOS and RAP guidance to get the timing of fog development. Unsure
at this point in time how low the visibility will get, so kept in
the MVFR range.

Will see gusty winds develop Friday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens with a low moving in North Dakota and the high
over the Central Great Lakes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  40  70
INL  52  81  64  82 /   0  20  60  70
BRD  55  79  66  85 /   0  30  40  70
HYR  51  79  64  85 /  10   0  30  70
ASX  53  81  59  85 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232346 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A quiet short term period ahead.  Currently, high pressure continues
to build in from the west, with a stubborn stratus deck still parked
over western Wisconsin and extreme eastern Minnesota.  Clear skies
are apparent elsewhere.  Expecting the skies to generally clear from
tonight from west to east.  Did add a mention of patchy fog to the
forecast for mainly western Wisconsin as the surface high comes
through overnight and winds go calm.  With this air mass working in,
will continue to keep the heat at bay to our southwest.  Lows
overnight will generally fall into the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, the high will push east of our area and a developing
system to our west will get southerly flow going through the day,
especially across western Minnesota where the gradient becomes
stronger by the afternoon. Warm air advection really gets going in
the afternoon across the area as 850mb temps surge to about +20C by
tomorrow evening.  Hence, calling for a much warmer day with temps
topping out in the low to mid 80s and the dew points rising well
into the 60s during the afternoon.  No precipitation expected this
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast concern remains the potential of a severe weather
outbreak Saturday as similar patterns in the past represent a high
probability of a significant weather including tornadoes,
very large hail and damaging winds.

Overall, the timing of thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon
will be critical in terms of instability and wind shear. Some of the
latest CAMS support thunderstorm initiation between 18-21z west of
the Twin Cities metro area and have them rapidly moving off into
western Wisconsin between 21-00z.

Large scale ascent remains very strong and will be associated with
an upper low forecast to move along the U.S, Canadian (Along the
North Dakota border) Saturday. Both the 50/25H Jets intensify
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and into western
Minnesota. There remains uncertainty on morning convection and
instability recovery in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
However, looking at the June 17, 2010 outbreak in Minnesota, the
morning sounding did not have ample instability, and it was the low
level shear that dominated the outbreak by the late afternoon.
Actually the latest run (CIPS) has a much better atmosphere (12Z
June 25, 2016) in terms of instability and lapse rates compared to
June 17, 2010.  There is no question that supercell thunderstorms
will develop across Minnesota/Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and
evening. The main question is whether it will be tornadic supercells
or a realm of other significant severe weather including damaging
straight line winds and/or very large hail. Persons who have outdoor
activities or any activity involving large number of individuals
need to pay attention on how the weather parameters evolve.

By late Saturday night, the mean upper level wind pattern will
become northwest, which leads to cooler and drier weather for next
week. There should be several days of rain-free conditions as this
pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions and light winds are expected tonight. There is an
outside chance for some fog across western Wisconsin late tonight,
which will be monitored for the next taf issuance.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232346 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A quiet short term period ahead.  Currently, high pressure continues
to build in from the west, with a stubborn stratus deck still parked
over western Wisconsin and extreme eastern Minnesota.  Clear skies
are apparent elsewhere.  Expecting the skies to generally clear from
tonight from west to east.  Did add a mention of patchy fog to the
forecast for mainly western Wisconsin as the surface high comes
through overnight and winds go calm.  With this air mass working in,
will continue to keep the heat at bay to our southwest.  Lows
overnight will generally fall into the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, the high will push east of our area and a developing
system to our west will get southerly flow going through the day,
especially across western Minnesota where the gradient becomes
stronger by the afternoon. Warm air advection really gets going in
the afternoon across the area as 850mb temps surge to about +20C by
tomorrow evening.  Hence, calling for a much warmer day with temps
topping out in the low to mid 80s and the dew points rising well
into the 60s during the afternoon.  No precipitation expected this
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast concern remains the potential of a severe weather
outbreak Saturday as similar patterns in the past represent a high
probability of a significant weather including tornadoes,
very large hail and damaging winds.

Overall, the timing of thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon
will be critical in terms of instability and wind shear. Some of the
latest CAMS support thunderstorm initiation between 18-21z west of
the Twin Cities metro area and have them rapidly moving off into
western Wisconsin between 21-00z.

Large scale ascent remains very strong and will be associated with
an upper low forecast to move along the U.S, Canadian (Along the
North Dakota border) Saturday. Both the 50/25H Jets intensify
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and into western
Minnesota. There remains uncertainty on morning convection and
instability recovery in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
However, looking at the June 17, 2010 outbreak in Minnesota, the
morning sounding did not have ample instability, and it was the low
level shear that dominated the outbreak by the late afternoon.
Actually the latest run (CIPS) has a much better atmosphere (12Z
June 25, 2016) in terms of instability and lapse rates compared to
June 17, 2010.  There is no question that supercell thunderstorms
will develop across Minnesota/Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and
evening. The main question is whether it will be tornadic supercells
or a realm of other significant severe weather including damaging
straight line winds and/or very large hail. Persons who have outdoor
activities or any activity involving large number of individuals
need to pay attention on how the weather parameters evolve.

By late Saturday night, the mean upper level wind pattern will
become northwest, which leads to cooler and drier weather for next
week. There should be several days of rain-free conditions as this
pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions and light winds are expected tonight. There is an
outside chance for some fog across western Wisconsin late tonight,
which will be monitored for the next taf issuance.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 232103
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A quiet short term period ahead.  Currently, high pressure continues
to build in from the west, with a stubborn stratus deck still parked
over western Wisconsin and extreme eastern Minnesota.  Clear skies
are apparent elsewhere.  Expecting the skies to generally clear from
tonight from west to east.  Did add a mention of patchy fog to the
forecast for mainly western Wisconsin as the surface high comes
through overnight and winds go calm.  With this air mass working in,
will continue to keep the heat at bay to our southwest.  Lows
overnight will generally fall into the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, the high will push east of our area and a developing
system to our west will get southerly flow going through the day,
especially across western Minnesota where the gradient becomes
stronger by the afternoon. Warm air advection really gets going in
the afternoon across the area as 850mb temps surge to about +20C by
tomorrow evening.  Hence, calling for a much warmer day with temps
topping out in the low to mid 80s and the dew points rising well
into the 60s during the afternoon.  No precipitation expected this
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast concern remains the potential of a severe weather
outbreak Saturday as similar patterns in the past represent a high
probability of a significant weather including tornadoes,
very large hail and damaging winds.

Overall, the timing of thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon
will be critical in terms of instability and wind shear. Some of the
latest CAMS support thunderstorm initiation between 18-21z west of
the Twin Cities metro area and have them rapidly moving off into
western Wisconsin between 21-00z.

Large scale ascent remains very strong and will be associated with
an upper low forecast to move along the U.S, Canadian (Along the
North Dakota border) Saturday. Both the 50/25H Jets intensify
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and into western
Minnesota. There remains uncertainty on morning convection and
instability recovery in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
However, looking at the June 17, 2010 outbreak in Minnesota, the
morning sounding did not have ample instability, and it was the low
level shear that dominated the outbreak by the late afternoon.
Actually the latest run (CIPS) has a much better atmosphere (12Z
June 25, 2016) in terms of instability and lapse rates compared to
June 17, 2010.  There is no question that supercell thunderstorms
will develop across Minnesota/Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and
evening. The main question is whether it will be tornadic supercells
or a realm of other significant severe weather including damaging
straight line winds and/or very large hail. Persons who have outdoor
activities or any activity involving large number of individuals
need to pay attention on how the weather parameters evolve.

By late Saturday night, the mean upper level wind pattern will
become northwest, which leads to cooler and drier weather for next
week. There should be several days of rain-free conditions as this
pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The only concern this period is the first few hours across western
WI and eastern MN as we deal with stratus from this morning
lifting and exiting to the east. MSP and RNH should see cigs go
VFR within the next hour, with EAU lagging an hour or two behind
that. Otherwise, a VFR forecast with skies going clear tonight and
lasting through Friday morning.

KMSP...Ceiling is rising gradually and expect by 1830-19Z it
should be VFR. Wind gradually will decrease as the surface high
continues pushing in and the gradient weakens considerably.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KDLH 232021
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
321 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain showers over northwest Wisconsin this morning have dissipated
this afternoon, and while we are seeing some well developed cumulus
over the Arrowhead so far, am only seeing some weak echoes on radar
that are likely not producing more than virga or some sprinkles.
Will have to keep an eye on this trend as if it gets any more
widespread I will have to add pops into the forecast.  Otherwise,
the forecast for the next 24 hours with the surface ridge building
across the area keeping the weather generally quiet through Friday
mid afternoon.  South flow will set up over the area on Friday ahead
of our weekend storm system, which should bring increasing winds and
higher dew points into the area. Temperatures to warm  over today,
with most locations rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a
trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through
the weekend. An MCS is expected to develop to the west Friday
Night, spreading into Minnesota later in the night. By 12Z
Saturday, the surface low is expected to be in the eastern
Dakotas, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area
overnight Friday night. Surface low pressure will become dominant
over south central Canada on Saturday, as a cold front pushes
eastward across the area Saturday and Saturday Night. This looks
like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland,
although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating
that is able to generate ahead of the cold front. It should be
plenty unstable, but the main question is whether there will be
enough surface heating at this point. Nonetheless, we should be
able to generate some storms with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The cold front will march eastward by Sunday
morning, putting our CWA into a dry slot by 12Z Sunday. The low
pressure system moving across south central Canada will really
wind up on Saturday Night and Sunday, with strong winds expected
for Sunday. Wrap around showers will also become common across the
area on Sunday, especially the northern half of the CWA. The
chance of wrap around showers will diminish Sunday Night and
Monday, with high pressure and upper level ridging then moving in
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will range from the 80s on
Saturday, to the 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. It will be in the
60s to around 70 on Monday. Highs will then be in the 70s for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the CWA throughout the
period, with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies. Winds will
generally be light and variable.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  40  70
INL  52  81  64  82 /   0  20  60  70
BRD  55  79  66  85 /   0  30  40  70
HYR  51  79  64  85 /  10   0  30  70
ASX  53  81  59  85 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 231755
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain continued to fall across northwest Wisconsin early this
morning due a shortwave and surface low. Water vapor showed the
wave over western Lake Superior and the surface low was centered
in west central Wisconsin. These features will continue to move
southeast today. We followed close to the short term high res
models and linger showers over northwest Wisconsin into early
afternoon. An additional weaker shortwave in the northwest flow
will impact that area as will weak low level convergence. We also
added isolated showers/storms along portions of the North Shore
area this afternoon as weak low level convergence will also be
present and some of the guidance was picking up on precip
developing there. Highs today will be in the seventies. Off lake
winds will be possible again today, especially along the North
Shore but they will not be as strong as yesterday at the head of
Lake Superior. There may be some patchy early morning fog, mainly
over northeast Minnesota where clouds have diminished.

An upper ridge will build over the region tonight into Friday and
we went with a dry forecast then. The 00Z NAM was showing a
shortwave cresting the upper ridge Friday afternoon bringing in
showers and storms late in the day. However, much of the other
guidance were not as aggressive with the with the wave and kept
the Northland dry. The 06Z run of the NAM has even backed off.
Highs Friday will be from 78 to 83 for most areas. It will be
cooler close to the lake, especially the North Shore.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot and humid this weekend with a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday, then temperatures
becoming more seasonable and mainly dry through the middle of next
week.

On the synoptic scale an upper low entering the northern High Plains
into southern Saskatchewan and an upper high over the Gulf Coast
will lead to very warm and moist air being advected north across the
Great Plains into the upper Midwest Friday and Saturday, setting the
stage for a hot and humid day. A warm front associated with the low
will lift northeast across northern Minnesota Friday night, with
elevated instability fed by a strong low level jet suggesting the
possibility for overnight convection. While the best placement for
this risk appears in northwest Minnesota (with SPC having pulled
their latest convective outlook slight risk area just a tad further
west), as the low level jet shifts eastward towards Saturday morning
there could be a risk for ongoing storms on the international
border...very similar to this past Sunday morning when large hail
fell across the MN/Canada border. The evolution of this convection
will be critical to determining the set-up for Saturday, but at this
point it seems the storms should exit ENE towards Thunder Bay mid-
morning Saturday.

On Saturday Minnesota and northern Wisconsin will be well within the
warm sector of the low. The upper low is expected to move east
across southern Manitoba Saturday with the resulting surface low
nearby as the low matures. A cold front will extend south from this
low across the Red River Valley/western Minnesota Saturday morning,
moving east through the day. In a very unstable environment strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected to fire in northern Minnesota
and move east across the Northland during the late afternoon and
evening hours, again somewhat similar to this past Sunday. While
there are some uncertainties with regards to the environment (see
below), most the conditions necessary for severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and damaging winds will be present. SPC has
had this area highlighted since it was 5 days out and this morning
has continued to highlight the area with a Day 3 Slight Risk.

In regards to the type of environment in place, 850mb temps will
approach +20C at INL, which per sounding climatology would be in the
near-record territory; the GEFS mean values are around 97-99th
percentile. While this kind of warmth at low levels could lead to
concerns about not being able to break the cap, the warmest
conditions are mainly overnight Friday night into Saturday morning
when a strong low level jet may end up feeding an MCS moving east
across the international border. Surface dew point values are
expected to be in the low 70s with precipitable water values over
1.75", which is above the 99th percentile compared to climatology.
Instability aloft will be plenty for strong to severe storms - 2000+
j/kg MUCAPE per most guidance. Deep layer shear could be limited in
the afternoon depending on the speed of the upper low and the
associated stronger mid/upper level winds coming east across the
northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF have
trended towards a more favorable wind field, but there still remains
concerns that the best shear could arrive after storms are expected
to fire across northern Minnesota. While it`s bit premature to
analyze such small-scale details, at this point the low level wind
field does not seem particularly favorable for tornadoes, but (1)
this can and will change and (2) the absence of an environment
favorable for strong tornadoes does not mean tornadoes are not
possible; any supercell can be capable of producing a tornado. Storm
motions along and ahead of the front would be northeasterly at 30-45
knots - again fast storm motions like last Sunday. While the wind
field seems fast enough both on the synoptic-scale features and
storm-scale-wise to preclude risk for training storms, the high
precipitable water values bring at least some concern for locally
heavy rainfall resulting in risk for flash flooding.

In summary, all modes of severe weather appear possible Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night across all of northeast/east-central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, including the potential for
flash flooding.

As the low lifts to the east-northeast across northern Ontario
through the weekend, cooler air aloft will be advected in behind the
cold front resulting in cooler conditions and a chance for light
rain showers Sunday. By Monday into Tuesday high pressure will build
across the northern plains and upper Midwest resulting in clearing
skis and a return to more seasonable conditions by mid-week. A weak
mid-level disturbance bringing a chance for clouds/light rain
remains possible mid to late week but otherwise mainly sunny and
seasonable conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the CWA throughout the
period, with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies. Winds will
generally be light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  52  79  59 /  10   0   0  50
INL  78  51  82  65 /   0   0  10  60
BRD  74  54  82  65 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  72  50  83  62 /  60  10  10  30
ASX  71  51  81  60 /  60  10   0  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231750
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Fairly quiet short term is expected as high pressure slides across
the upper MS Valley through tonight.

This morning, remnant h7 low will move from near Duluth down to
Madison.  This will keep scattered light showers going through at
least the morning in western WI, though the hrrr and some of the
HopWRF members show showers lingering into the afternoon as what`s
left of an inverted trough gets hung up and hangs around western WI
this afternoon. Right now, we have it dry out there this afternoon,
but if this trend continues, could see updates later this morning
needing hold on to PoPs for western WI later than we currently have.

For temperatures, we overachieved a bit yesterday, but that was with
925-850 temps that were between 16c and 20c, today we are more 12c
to 16c. Even mixing up to 825mb (unlikely to be that high), you only
get highs in the 70s, so going about 5 degrees below normal with
highs today looks plausible, especially out in WI where cloud cover
will hang on the longest.

Tonight, high pressure will be overhead, so did cool off lows some
from previous forecast, though by Friday morning, return flow and
moisture return will be in full force out in western MN.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main show in the long term remains on Saturday with the
likelihood of widespread thunderstorms across eastern MN and
western WI Saturday afternoon/evening - there is a severe weather
risk on Saturday with the potential for all severe hazards (hail,
wind, tornadoes).

Our Saturday weather-maker is currently off the coast of Washington
and British Columbia this morning spreading moisture into the
Pacific Northwest. By 12z Saturday, this upper low will be
approaching the MT/ND border with 500mb height falls across the
Dakotas and a shortwave in the Southern/Central Plains lifting
northeast. Stepping down to 850mb yields strong moisture transport
with the LLJ across the Plains Friday night and Saturday morning.
We are gaining confidence that there will be elevated
thunderstorms in Minnesota (possibly western Wisconsin) Saturday
morning that will be lifting northeast with the warm/moist
advection. We have chance of thunder in the forecast, but we will
probably trend toward likely POPs with time. Current thinking is
that a lot of this morning activity (rain/clouds) will clear the
forecast area by the afternoon when southern MN and western WI
finds itself firmly within the warm sector of the occluded system.
This sets the stage for deep moist convection in the afternoon and
evening out ahead of the cold front.

Here`s what we know at this point. From a synoptic weather pattern
standpoint, Saturday is matching some notable, local severe
weather outbreaks that have happened in the past 10 years. Most
notably, the past 5 runs of the GFS have matched (via the CIPS
analogs) June 17, 2010 (Minnesota`s record tornado outbreak.) The
analogs this morning show that 3 of the top 4 matches to the GFS
on Saturday are all associated with significant severe weather
events: June 17, 2010, July 14, 2010, and July 11, 2008. This
morning, the SPC has added a Slight Risk to the forecast area for
the Day 3 outlook. Coincidentally, three days prior to June 17,
2010, SPC also added our area to a Slight Risk, which ended up as
a Moderate Risk the night before the event. Now, with all that
being said, there are some differences between the notorious June
17th event and what numerical guidance is showing for Saturday.
The 850-700mb troughs on June 17th were a bit cooler and therefore
yielded slightly stronger low level wind fields than what is
expected Saturday. In both the June 17th event and what`s expected
Saturday, the mid level jet and shear are lagged behind the cold
front back to the west. The 850mb flow on Saturday looks like it
will good enough to generate 20-30kts of 0-1km shear - that is
more than respectable, but not as good June 17th. The lack of mid-
level winds could end up limiting the overall severe potential,
but we are still concerned given the winds below 15,000ft. Some
of our local convective allowing models are simulating really good
updraft helicity streaks in Minnesota (suggesting the potential
for rotating thunderstorms). This is especially true in northeast
ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low. The instability and
forcing shouldn`t be much of a limiting factor locally - even with
the threat for the aforementioned morning convection and clouds.
In fact, morning convection could lay out some boundaries and
lower the LCLs. We`ll be in the warm sector with dewpoints near 70
and an approaching trough - we`ll have good SBCAPE/MLCAPE.
Instability uncertainty is more a problem for northern MN. Now,
it`s only Thursday, and the subtleties of the incoming system will
ultimately determine the type/intensity of severe weather, but
this is a system that certainly needs to be taken seriously. There
is a tornado potential if a few things come together.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The only concern this period is the first few hours across western
WI and eastern MN as we deal with stratus from this morning
lifting and exiting to the east. MSP and RNH should see cigs go
VFR within the next hour, with EAU lagging an hour or two behind
that. Otherwise, a VFR forecast with skies going clear tonight and
lasting through Friday morning.

KMSP...Ceiling is rising gradually and expect by 1830-19Z it
should be VFR. Wind gradually will decrease as the surface high
continues pushing in and the gradient weakens considerably.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231750
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Fairly quiet short term is expected as high pressure slides across
the upper MS Valley through tonight.

This morning, remnant h7 low will move from near Duluth down to
Madison.  This will keep scattered light showers going through at
least the morning in western WI, though the hrrr and some of the
HopWRF members show showers lingering into the afternoon as what`s
left of an inverted trough gets hung up and hangs around western WI
this afternoon. Right now, we have it dry out there this afternoon,
but if this trend continues, could see updates later this morning
needing hold on to PoPs for western WI later than we currently have.

For temperatures, we overachieved a bit yesterday, but that was with
925-850 temps that were between 16c and 20c, today we are more 12c
to 16c. Even mixing up to 825mb (unlikely to be that high), you only
get highs in the 70s, so going about 5 degrees below normal with
highs today looks plausible, especially out in WI where cloud cover
will hang on the longest.

Tonight, high pressure will be overhead, so did cool off lows some
from previous forecast, though by Friday morning, return flow and
moisture return will be in full force out in western MN.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main show in the long term remains on Saturday with the
likelihood of widespread thunderstorms across eastern MN and
western WI Saturday afternoon/evening - there is a severe weather
risk on Saturday with the potential for all severe hazards (hail,
wind, tornadoes).

Our Saturday weather-maker is currently off the coast of Washington
and British Columbia this morning spreading moisture into the
Pacific Northwest. By 12z Saturday, this upper low will be
approaching the MT/ND border with 500mb height falls across the
Dakotas and a shortwave in the Southern/Central Plains lifting
northeast. Stepping down to 850mb yields strong moisture transport
with the LLJ across the Plains Friday night and Saturday morning.
We are gaining confidence that there will be elevated
thunderstorms in Minnesota (possibly western Wisconsin) Saturday
morning that will be lifting northeast with the warm/moist
advection. We have chance of thunder in the forecast, but we will
probably trend toward likely POPs with time. Current thinking is
that a lot of this morning activity (rain/clouds) will clear the
forecast area by the afternoon when southern MN and western WI
finds itself firmly within the warm sector of the occluded system.
This sets the stage for deep moist convection in the afternoon and
evening out ahead of the cold front.

Here`s what we know at this point. From a synoptic weather pattern
standpoint, Saturday is matching some notable, local severe
weather outbreaks that have happened in the past 10 years. Most
notably, the past 5 runs of the GFS have matched (via the CIPS
analogs) June 17, 2010 (Minnesota`s record tornado outbreak.) The
analogs this morning show that 3 of the top 4 matches to the GFS
on Saturday are all associated with significant severe weather
events: June 17, 2010, July 14, 2010, and July 11, 2008. This
morning, the SPC has added a Slight Risk to the forecast area for
the Day 3 outlook. Coincidentally, three days prior to June 17,
2010, SPC also added our area to a Slight Risk, which ended up as
a Moderate Risk the night before the event. Now, with all that
being said, there are some differences between the notorious June
17th event and what numerical guidance is showing for Saturday.
The 850-700mb troughs on June 17th were a bit cooler and therefore
yielded slightly stronger low level wind fields than what is
expected Saturday. In both the June 17th event and what`s expected
Saturday, the mid level jet and shear are lagged behind the cold
front back to the west. The 850mb flow on Saturday looks like it
will good enough to generate 20-30kts of 0-1km shear - that is
more than respectable, but not as good June 17th. The lack of mid-
level winds could end up limiting the overall severe potential,
but we are still concerned given the winds below 15,000ft. Some
of our local convective allowing models are simulating really good
updraft helicity streaks in Minnesota (suggesting the potential
for rotating thunderstorms). This is especially true in northeast
ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low. The instability and
forcing shouldn`t be much of a limiting factor locally - even with
the threat for the aforementioned morning convection and clouds.
In fact, morning convection could lay out some boundaries and
lower the LCLs. We`ll be in the warm sector with dewpoints near 70
and an approaching trough - we`ll have good SBCAPE/MLCAPE.
Instability uncertainty is more a problem for northern MN. Now,
it`s only Thursday, and the subtleties of the incoming system will
ultimately determine the type/intensity of severe weather, but
this is a system that certainly needs to be taken seriously. There
is a tornado potential if a few things come together.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The only concern this period is the first few hours across western
WI and eastern MN as we deal with stratus from this morning
lifting and exiting to the east. MSP and RNH should see cigs go
VFR within the next hour, with EAU lagging an hour or two behind
that. Otherwise, a VFR forecast with skies going clear tonight and
lasting through Friday morning.

KMSP...Ceiling is rising gradually and expect by 1830-19Z it
should be VFR. Wind gradually will decrease as the surface high
continues pushing in and the gradient weakens considerably.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance MVFR. Winds W 10-20kts.
MON...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KDLH 231132
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain continued to fall across northwest Wisconsin early this
morning due a shortwave and surface low. Water vapor showed the
wave over western Lake Superior and the surface low was centered
in west central Wisconsin. These features will continue to move
southeast today. We followed close to the short term high res
models and linger showers over northwest Wisconsin into early
afternoon. An additional weaker shortwave in the northwest flow
will impact that area as will weak low level convergence. We also
added isolated showers/storms along portions of the North Shore
area this afternoon as weak low level convergence will also be
present and some of the guidance was picking up on precip
developing there. Highs today will be in the seventies. Off lake
winds will be possible again today, especially along the North
Shore but they will not be as strong as yesterday at the head of
Lake Superior. There may be some patchy early morning fog, mainly
over northeast Minnesota where clouds have diminished.

An upper ridge will build over the region tonight into Friday and
we went with a dry forecast then. The 00Z NAM was showing a
shortwave cresting the upper ridge Friday afternoon bringing in
showers and storms late in the day. However, much of the other
guidance were not as aggressive with the with the wave and kept
the Northland dry. The 06Z run of the NAM has even backed off.
Highs Friday will be from 78 to 83 for most areas. It will be
cooler close to the lake, especially the North Shore.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot and humid this weekend with a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday, then temperatures
becoming more seasonable and mainly dry through the middle of next
week.

On the synoptic scale an upper low entering the northern High Plains
into southern Saskatchewan and an upper high over the Gulf Coast
will lead to very warm and moist air being advected north across the
Great Plains into the upper Midwest Friday and Saturday, setting the
stage for a hot and humid day. A warm front associated with the low
will lift northeast across northern Minnesota Friday night, with
elevated instability fed by a strong low level jet suggesting the
possibility for overnight convection. While the best placement for
this risk appears in northwest Minnesota (with SPC having pulled
their latest convective outlook slight risk area just a tad further
west), as the low level jet shifts eastward towards Saturday morning
there could be a risk for ongoing storms on the international
border...very similar to this past Sunday morning when large hail
fell across the MN/Canada border. The evolution of this convection
will be critical to determining the set-up for Saturday, but at this
point it seems the storms should exit ENE towards Thunder Bay mid-
morning Saturday.

On Saturday Minnesota and northern Wisconsin will be well within the
warm sector of the low. The upper low is expected to move east
across southern Manitoba Saturday with the resulting surface low
nearby as the low matures. A cold front will extend south from this
low across the Red River Valley/western Minnesota Saturday morning,
moving east through the day. In a very unstable environment strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected to fire in northern Minnesota
and move east across the Northland during the late afternoon and
evening hours, again somewhat similar to this past Sunday. While
there are some uncertainties with regards to the environment (see
below), most the conditions necessary for severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and damaging winds will be present. SPC has
had this area highlighted since it was 5 days out and this morning
has continued to highlight the area with a Day 3 Slight Risk.

In regards to the type of environment in place, 850mb temps will
approach +20C at INL, which per sounding climatology would be in the
near-record territory; the GEFS mean values are around 97-99th
percentile. While this kind of warmth at low levels could lead to
concerns about not being able to break the cap, the warmest
conditions are mainly overnight Friday night into Saturday morning
when a strong low level jet may end up feeding an MCS moving east
across the international border. Surface dew point values are
expected to be in the low 70s with precipitable water values over
1.75", which is above the 99th percentile compared to climatology.
Instability aloft will be plenty for strong to severe storms - 2000+
j/kg MUCAPE per most guidance. Deep layer shear could be limited in
the afternoon depending on the speed of the upper low and the
associated stronger mid/upper level winds coming east across the
northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF have
trended towards a more favorable wind field, but there still remains
concerns that the best shear could arrive after storms are expected
to fire across northern Minnesota. While it`s bit premature to
analyze such small-scale details, at this point the low level wind
field does not seem particularly favorable for tornadoes, but (1)
this can and will change and (2) the absence of an environment
favorable for strong tornadoes does not mean tornadoes are not
possible; any supercell can be capable of producing a tornado. Storm
motions along and ahead of the front would be northeasterly at 30-45
knots - again fast storm motions like last Sunday. While the wind
field seems fast enough both on the synoptic-scale features and
storm-scale-wise to preclude risk for training storms, the high
precipitable water values bring at least some concern for locally
heavy rainfall resulting in risk for flash flooding.

In summary, all modes of severe weather appear possible Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night across all of northeast/east-central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, including the potential for
flash flooding.

As the low lifts to the east-northeast across northern Ontario
through the weekend, cooler air aloft will be advected in behind the
cold front resulting in cooler conditions and a chance for light
rain showers Sunday. By Monday into Tuesday high pressure will build
across the northern plains and upper Midwest resulting in clearing
skis and a return to more seasonable conditions by mid-week. A weak
mid-level disturbance bringing a chance for clouds/light rain
remains possible mid to late week but otherwise mainly sunny and
seasonable conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites.
Skies gradually clearing from northwest to southeast this morning
with mainly clear skies expected through the day and into tonight.
Winds will be light and variable in direction through the day,
eventually becoming out of the south towards the evening but
remaining fairly light, with some sites going calm at times
overnight tonight as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  79  59 /  10   0   0  50
INL  78  51  82  65 /   0   0  10  60
BRD  74  54  82  65 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  72  50  83  62 /  60   0  10  30
ASX  71  51  81  60 /  60  10   0  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 231113
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
613 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Fairly quiet short term is expected as high pressure slides across
the upper MS Valley through tonight.

This morning, remnant h7 low will move from near Duluth down to
Madison.  This will keep scattered light showers going through at
least the morning in western WI, though the hrrr and some of the
HopWRF members show showers lingering into the afternoon as what`s
left of an inverted trough gets hung up and hangs around western WI
this afternoon. Right now, we have it dry out there this afternoon,
but if this trend continues, could see updates later this morning
needing hold on to PoPs for western WI later than we currently have.

For temperatures, we overachieved a bit yesterday, but that was with
925-850 temps that were between 16c and 20c, today we are more 12c
to 16c. Even mixing up to 825mb (unlikely to be that high), you only
get highs in the 70s, so going about 5 degrees below normal with
highs today looks plausible, especially out in WI where cloud cover
will hang on the longest.

Tonight, high pressure will be overhead, so did cool off lows some
from previous forecast, though by Friday morning, return flow and
moisture return will be in full force out in western MN.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main show in the long term remains on Saturday with the
likelihood of widespread thunderstorms across eastern MN and
western WI Saturday afternoon/evening - there is a severe weather
risk on Saturday with the potential for all severe hazards (hail,
wind, tornadoes).

Our Saturday weather-maker is currently off the coast of Washington
and British Columbia this morning spreading moisture into the
Pacific Northwest. By 12z Saturday, this upper low will be
approaching the MT/ND border with 500mb height falls across the
Dakotas and a shortwave in the Southern/Central Plains lifting
northeast. Stepping down to 850mb yields strong moisture transport
with the LLJ across the Plains Friday night and Saturday morning.
We are gaining confidence that there will be elevated
thunderstorms in Minnesota (possibly western Wisconsin) Saturday
morning that will be lifting northeast with the warm/moist
advection. We have chance of thunder in the forecast, but we will
probably trend toward likely POPs with time. Current thinking is
that a lot of this morning activity (rain/clouds) will clear the
forecast area by the afternoon when southern MN and western WI
finds itself firmly within the warm sector of the occluded system.
This sets the stage for deep moist convection in the afternoon and
evening out ahead of the cold front.

Here`s what we know at this point. From a synoptic weather pattern
standpoint, Saturday is matching some notable, local severe
weather outbreaks that have happened in the past 10 years. Most
notably, the past 5 runs of the GFS have matched (via the CIPS
analogs) June 17, 2010 (Minnesota`s record tornado outbreak.) The
analogs this morning show that 3 of the top 4 matches to the GFS
on Saturday are all associated with significant severe weather
events: June 17, 2010, July 14, 2010, and July 11, 2008. This
morning, the SPC has added a Slight Risk to the forecast area for
the Day 3 outlook. Coincidentally, three days prior to June 17,
2010, SPC also added our area to a Slight Risk, which ended up as
a Moderate Risk the night before the event. Now, with all that
being said, there are some differences between the notorious June
17th event and what numerical guidance is showing for Saturday.
The 850-700mb troughs on June 17th were a bit cooler and therefore
yielded slightly stronger low level wind fields than what is
expected Saturday. In both the June 17th event and what`s expected
Saturday, the mid level jet and shear are lagged behind the cold
front back to the west. The 850mb flow on Saturday looks like it
will good enough to generate 20-30kts of 0-1km shear - that is
more than respectable, but not as good June 17th. The lack of mid-
level winds could end up limiting the overall severe potential,
but we are still concerned given the winds below 15,000ft. Some
of our local convective allowing models are simulating really good
updraft helicity streaks in Minnesota (suggesting the potential
for rotating thunderstorms). This is especially true in northeast
ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low. The instability and
forcing shouldn`t be much of a limiting factor locally - even with
the threat for the aforementioned morning convection and clouds.
In fact, morning convection could lay out some boundaries and
lower the LCLs. We`ll be in the warm sector with dewpoints near 70
and an approaching trough - we`ll have good SBCAPE/MLCAPE.
Instability uncertainty is more a problem for northern MN. Now,
it`s only Thursday, and the subtleties of the incoming system will
ultimately determine the type/intensity of severe weather, but
this is a system that certainly needs to be taken seriously. There
is a tornado potential if a few things come together.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main issue this TAF period is timing improvement for MSP on east.
This area of clouds is at the nose of an inverted trough, which
will be slow to budge today. As a result, clouds will be slow to
budge as well and followed a blend of the LAMP and HRRR for
improvements. The hrrr and some of the HopWRF members have been
showing showers accompanying these clouds through much of the day,
though we think this is more just these models highlighting
moisture in the cloud bearing layers as opposed to something
reaching the ground as evidenced by the lack of ra reports we are
currently seeing in western WI. For tonight, high pressure is in
control, so no weather issues are anticipated.

KMSP...16z is a first guess for when mvfr cigs will leave MSP,
though improvements to VFR could happen as soon as 14z or be
delayed to as late as 19z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Winds SSE 5-10 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR TSRA in mrng. TSRA likely aftn/evening. Winds S-SW
      10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Winds W 10-20kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 230958
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
458 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Fairly quiet short term is expected as high pressure slides across
the upper MS Valley through tonight.

This morning, remnant h7 low will move from near Duluth down to
Madison.  This will keep scattered light showers going through at
least the morning in western WI, though the hrrr and some of the
HopWRF members show showers lingering into the afternoon as what`s
left of an inverted trough gets hung up and hangs around western WI
this afternoon. Right now, we have it dry out there this afternoon,
but if this trend continues, could see updates later this morning
needing hold on to PoPs for western WI later than we currently have.

For temperatures, we overachieved a bit yesterday, but that was with
925-850 temps that were between 16c and 20c, today we are more 12c
to 16c. Even mixing up to 825mb (unlikely to be that high), you only
get highs in the 70s, so going about 5 degrees below normal with
highs today looks plausible, especially out in WI where cloud cover
will hang on the longest.

Tonight, high pressure will be overhead, so did cool off lows some
from previous forecast, though by Friday morning, return flow and
moisture return will be in full force out in western MN.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main show in the long term remains on Saturday with the
likelihood of widespread thunderstorms across eastern MN and
western WI Saturday afternoon/evening - there is a severe weather
risk on Saturday with the potential for all severe hazards (hail,
wind, tornadoes).

Our Saturday weather-maker is currently off the coast of Washington
and British Columbia this morning spreading moisture into the
Pacific Northwest. By 12z Saturday, this upper low will be
approaching the MT/ND border with 500mb height falls across the
Dakotas and a shortwave in the Southern/Central Plains lifting
northeast. Stepping down to 850mb yields strong moisture transport
with the LLJ across the Plains Friday night and Saturday morning.
We are gaining confidence that there will be elevated
thunderstorms in Minnesota (possibly western Wisconsin) Saturday
morning that will be lifting northeast with the warm/moist
advection. We have chance of thunder in the forecast, but we will
probably trend toward likely POPs with time. Current thinking is
that a lot of this morning activity (rain/clouds) will clear the
forecast area by the afternoon when southern MN and western WI
finds itself firmly within the warm sector of the occluded system.
This sets the stage for deep moist convection in the afternoon and
evening out ahead of the cold front.

Here`s what we know at this point. From a synoptic weather pattern
standpoint, Saturday is matching some notable, local severe
weather outbreaks that have happened in the past 10 years. Most
notably, the past 5 runs of the GFS have matched (via the CIPS
analogs) June 17, 2010 (Minnesota`s record tornado outbreak.) The
analogs this morning show that 3 of the top 4 matches to the GFS
on Saturday are all associated with significant severe weather
events: June 17, 2010, July 14, 2010, and July 11, 2008. This
morning, the SPC has added a Slight Risk to the forecast area for
the Day 3 outlook. Coincidentally, three days prior to June 17,
2010, SPC also added our area to a Slight Risk, which ended up as
a Moderate Risk the night before the event. Now, with all that
being said, there are some differences between the notorious June
17th event and what numerical guidance is showing for Saturday.
The 850-700mb troughs on June 17th were a bit cooler and therefore
yielded slightly stronger low level wind fields than what is
expected Saturday. In both the June 17th event and what`s expected
Saturday, the mid level jet and shear are lagged behind the cold
front back to the west. The 850mb flow on Saturday looks like it
will good enough to generate 20-30kts of 0-1km shear - that is
more than respectable, but not as good June 17th. The lack of mid-
level winds could end up limiting the overall severe potential,
but we are still concerned given the winds below 15,000ft. Some
of our local convective allowing models are simulating really good
updraft helicity streaks in Minnesota (suggesting the potential
for rotating thunderstorms). This is especially true in northeast
ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low. The instability and
forcing shouldn`t be much of a limiting factor locally - even with
the threat for the aforementioned morning convection and clouds.
In fact, morning convection could lay out some boundaries and
lower the LCLs. We`ll be in the warm sector with dewpoints near 70
and an approaching trough - we`ll have good SBCAPE/MLCAPE.
Instability uncertainty is more a problem for northern MN. Now,
it`s only Thursday, and the subtleties of the incoming system will
ultimately determine the type/intensity of severe weather, but
this is a system that certainly needs to be taken seriously. There
is a tornado potential if a few things come together.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Most of the thunderstorm activity is east of RNH and EAU, but a
few showers may track nearby for the next few hours. Otherwise,
MVFR cigs across central MN, northeast SD, southeast ND will
be working southeast overnight and slowly lift Thursday. There is
some uncertainty as to how widespread these cigs will be with
recent satellite trends showing a dissipating trend in places. Since
it rained at RNH and EAU during the evening, it`s possible IFR
cigs will develop there overnight. Winds should be elevated enough
to prevent widespread fog formation.

KMSP...A small patch of MVFR cigs at KANE and KMIC may work
through KMSP prior to 06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions until later
tonight when additional MVFR cigs should move in from the
northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Winds SSE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR TSRA in the aftn/eve. Winds S-SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Winds W 10-20kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 230922
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
422 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain continued to fall across northwest Wisconsin early this
morning due a shortwave and surface low. Water vapor showed the
wave over western Lake Superior and the surface low was centered
in west central Wisconsin. These features will continue to move
southeast today. We followed close to the short term high res
models and linger showers over northwest Wisconsin into early
afternoon. An additional weaker shortwave in the northwest flow
will impact that area as will weak low level convergence. We also
added isolated showers/storms along portions of the North Shore
area this afternoon as weak low level convergence will also be
present and some of the guidance was picking up on precip
developing there. Highs today will be in the seventies. Off lake
winds will be possible again today, especially along the North
Shore but they will not be as strong as yesterday at the head of
Lake Superior. There may be some patchy early morning fog, mainly
over northeast Minnesota where clouds have diminished.

An upper ridge will build over the region tonight into Friday and
we went with a dry forecast then. The 00Z NAM was showing a
shortwave cresting the upper ridge Friday afternoon bringing in
showers and storms late in the day. However, much of the other
guidance were not as aggressive with the with the wave and kept
the Northland dry. The 06Z run of the NAM has even backed off.
Highs Friday will be from 78 to 83 for most areas. It will be
cooler close to the lake, especially the North Shore.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot and humid this weekend with a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday, then temperatures
becoming more seasonable and mainly dry through the middle of next
week.

On the synoptic scale an upper low entering the northern High Plains
into southern Saskatchewan and an upper high over the Gulf Coast
will lead to very warm and moist air being advected north across the
Great Plains into the upper Midwest Friday and Saturday, setting the
stage for a hot and humid day. A warm front associated with the low
will lift northeast across northern Minnesota Friday night, with
elevated instability fed by a strong low level jet suggesting the
possibility for overnight convection. While the best placement for
this risk appears in northwest Minnesota (with SPC having pulled
their latest convective outlook slight risk area just a tad further
west), as the low level jet shifts eastward towards Saturday morning
there could be a risk for ongoing storms on the international
border...very similar to this past Sunday morning when large hail
fell across the MN/Canada border. The evolution of this convection
will be critical to determining the set-up for Saturday, but at this
point it seems the storms should exit ENE towards Thunder Bay mid-
morning Saturday.

On Saturday Minnesota and northern Wisconsin will be well within the
warm sector of the low. The upper low is expected to move east
across southern Manitoba Saturday with the resulting surface low
nearby as the low matures. A cold front will extend south from this
low across the Red River Valley/western Minnesota Saturday morning,
moving east through the day. In a very unstable environment strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected to fire in northern Minnesota
and move east across the Northland during the late afternoon and
evening hours, again somewhat similar to this past Sunday. While
there are some uncertainties with regards to the environment (see
below), most the conditions necessary for severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and damaging winds will be present. SPC has
had this area highlighted since it was 5 days out and this morning
has continued to highlight the area with a Day 3 Slight Risk.

In regards to the type of environment in place, 850mb temps will
approach +20C at INL, which per sounding climatology would be in the
near-record territory; the GEFS mean values are around 97-99th
percentile. While this kind of warmth at low levels could lead to
concerns about not being able to break the cap, the warmest
conditions are mainly overnight Friday night into Saturday morning
when a strong low level jet may end up feeding an MCS moving east
across the international border. Surface dew point values are
expected to be in the low 70s with precipitable water values over
1.75", which is above the 99th percentile compared to climatology.
Instability aloft will be plenty for strong to severe storms - 2000+
j/kg MUCAPE per most guidance. Deep layer shear could be limited in
the afternoon depending on the speed of the upper low and the
associated stronger mid/upper level winds coming east across the
northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF have
trended towards a more favorable wind field, but there still remains
concerns that the best shear could arrive after storms are expected
to fire across northern Minnesota. While it`s bit premature to
analyze such small-scale details, at this point the low level wind
field does not seem particularly favorable for tornadoes, but (1)
this can and will change and (2) the absence of an environment
favorable for strong tornadoes does not mean tornadoes are not
possible; any supercell can be capable of producing a tornado. Storm
motions along and ahead of the front would be northeasterly at 30-45
knots - again fast storm motions like last Sunday. While the wind
field seems fast enough both on the synoptic-scale features and
storm-scale-wise to preclude risk for training storms, the high
precipitable water values bring at least some concern for locally
heavy rainfall resulting in risk for flash flooding.

In summary, all modes of severe weather appear possible Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night across all of northeast/east-central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, including the potential for
flash flooding.

As the low lifts to the east-northeast across northern Ontario
through the weekend, cooler air aloft will be advected in behind the
cold front resulting in cooler conditions and a chance for light
rain showers Sunday. By Monday into Tuesday high pressure will build
across the northern plains and upper Midwest resulting in clearing
skis and a return to more seasonable conditions by mid-week. A weak
mid-level disturbance bringing a chance for clouds/light rain
remains possible mid to late week but otherwise mainly sunny and
seasonable conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Isolated Rain showers will linger over northwest Wisconsin
through the early morning. Meanwhile...clearing skies along the
borderland will allow light fog at KINL and KHIB during the pre-
dawn hours. VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area
Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  79  59 /  10   0   0  50
INL  78  51  82  65 /   0   0  10  60
BRD  74  54  82  65 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  72  50  83  62 /  40   0  10  30
ASX  71  51  81  60 /  30  10   0  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




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