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000
FXUS63 KDLH 021502
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DECREASING THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
(EXITING CLOUDS/PRECIP A BIT QUICKER)...BUT MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW
WITH TREND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE
TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THESE STORMS...BUT IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL (AREAL COVERAGE SMALL).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM INL/HIB/DLH WITH LINGERING FOG AND THUNDER IN THE
VICINITY AT DLH THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT BRD JUST SOME MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS...BUT THIS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
HYR RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THEN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY IMPACT DLH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. VFR AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DLH AND HIB TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  60  77  62 /  60   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  82  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  78  64  87  64 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  75  58  78  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 021502
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DECREASING THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
(EXITING CLOUDS/PRECIP A BIT QUICKER)...BUT MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW
WITH TREND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE
TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THESE STORMS...BUT IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL (AREAL COVERAGE SMALL).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM INL/HIB/DLH WITH LINGERING FOG AND THUNDER IN THE
VICINITY AT DLH THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT BRD JUST SOME MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS...BUT THIS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
HYR RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THEN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY IMPACT DLH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. VFR AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DLH AND HIB TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  60  77  62 /  60   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  82  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  78  64  87  64 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  75  58  78  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021502
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DECREASING THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
(EXITING CLOUDS/PRECIP A BIT QUICKER)...BUT MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW
WITH TREND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE
TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THESE STORMS...BUT IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL (AREAL COVERAGE SMALL).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM INL/HIB/DLH WITH LINGERING FOG AND THUNDER IN THE
VICINITY AT DLH THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT BRD JUST SOME MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS...BUT THIS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
HYR RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THEN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY IMPACT DLH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. VFR AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DLH AND HIB TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  60  77  62 /  60   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  82  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  78  64  87  64 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  75  58  78  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 021150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM INL/HIB/DLH WITH LINGERING FOG AND THUNDER IN THE
VICINITY AT DLH THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT BRD JUST SOME MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS...BUT THIS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
HYR RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THEN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY IMPACT DLH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. VFR AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DLH AND HIB TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  60  77  62 /  60   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  84  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  82  64  87  64 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  78  58  78  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 021150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM INL/HIB/DLH WITH LINGERING FOG AND THUNDER IN THE
VICINITY AT DLH THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT BRD JUST SOME MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS...BUT THIS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
HYR RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THEN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY IMPACT DLH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. VFR AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DLH AND HIB TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  60  77  62 /  60   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  84  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  82  64  87  64 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  78  58  78  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM INL/HIB/DLH WITH LINGERING FOG AND THUNDER IN THE
VICINITY AT DLH THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT BRD JUST SOME MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS...BUT THIS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
HYR RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THEN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
STORMS MAY IMPACT DLH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. VFR AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DLH AND HIB TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  60  77  62 /  60   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  84  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  82  64  87  64 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  78  58  78  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE MINNESOTA SITES...WITH SOME LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE WISCONSIN SITES. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KEAU. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KMSP...
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE DOOR BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT. NOT ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AT
KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020923
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  60  77  62 /  40   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  84  66  89  68 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  82  64  87  64 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  78  58  78  60 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020923
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NE
THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AT BETWEEN 13 AND 14 KFT. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY HUMID...SO ANY HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MELTING.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TRAINING OF ANY STORMS. LEANED ON THE RAP13 THROUGH THIS
MORNING SINCE IT WAS HANDLING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS MUCH BETTER
THAN OTHER MODELS.

THERE WILL BE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...CUTTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SE FORECAST WILL GET RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SE FORECAST CLOUDIER TODAY...SO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. IT MAY TAKE LONGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE CLEARING DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FROM THE
THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND
BUILD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND THE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND NAM/GFS MOS...ARE
INDICATING A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM12 SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THE COOL AND HUMID
EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE RISK OF FOG IS GREATEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPANDED THE FOG IN THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...AND
VERY WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE NORTHLAND SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD GET AS HIGHS AS THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...BUT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT TO
BRING ABOUT MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STILL
LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS ARE
RESULTING IN ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL SUITES...AS
WELL AS A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION TREND WILL IMPACT
THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND COULD
RESULT IN A MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE TIME THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LOW
CLEARS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURS NIGHT...ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ALONG THE U.P. DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A PASSING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS INTRODUCING QPF
IN THIS AREA WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS /ECMWF ENSEMBLE/ REMAINS DRY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GROSS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE...70S...UGH. THIS WOULD BE PRETTY HUMID FOR MID-
SUMMER LET ALONE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FOR THE NORTHLAND. NOT AT
ALL OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS LATE-SEASON WARMTH...BUT THAT
DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY LESS STICKY-FEELING OUTSIDE. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF LEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT BEGINNING TO SHARPEN UP IN
THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE STORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT. STILL WARM AND HUMID WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AS FRIDAY. STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BY MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT INDICATE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND IT SHOULD
NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST DEFINITELY WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AROUND AN INCH OR MORE
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
TIMING OF THE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. REGARDLESS...WILL HAVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME POTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. STORM MOTIONS NORTHEAST AT 35-45 MPH DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVING IN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS
FALLING AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...WARMER BY THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  60  77  62 /  40   0   0  10
INL  86  63  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  84  66  89  68 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  82  64  87  64 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  78  58  78  60 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KMPX 020922
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOGETHER WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS
MORNING. 15 MINUTE RAINFALL RATES EQUATED OUT TO AROUND 4 INCHES
PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES...AND FLASH 3HR PRECIP RETURN
PERIODS WERE 50 TO 100YRS ACROSS WESTERN MN. FORTUNATELY THE
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A BIT OF SPEED SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

THE HIRES MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HRRR/DEVHRRR ARE DOING THE BEST IN TERMS OF
TIMING...SO TRENDED THIS MORNINGS POPS TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT LINE OF THINKING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WAS SPED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO SHIFT POPS NORTHEAST EVEN
QUICKER AND DRY THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. TODAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HOOVER AROUND 70 DEG...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG
INTO THE FORECAST IF THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THU-FRI...A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE
WX SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FOR THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCRG H5
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A PROLONGED DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX WILL SPELL WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS HIGHS INCRS TO THE UPR 80S TO ARND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S.

SAT-SUN...THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE
NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH ALL LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING
EWD...THIS PUTS A TRANSITIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...OPENING THE DOOR TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HOLD ITS FORM AND JUMP OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS SAT THRU
SUN...HELPING AID CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF ITS PATH. WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM...DEEP SWLY FLOW...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SUCH. HOWEVER...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITHIN AN ATMOS
CAPABLE OF PROMOTING HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY MAY WELL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S.

MON-TUE...A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES CENTER FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LOCATE
ITSELF OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE BY MIDDAY MON...WITH ITS
TRAILING CDFNT HAVING BEEN PUSHED THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MORE WNW-ESE FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE REGION WITH SFC HIGH PRES. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
NORTHEAST. A FEW WIND GUST 20 TO 25 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THEM...
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING. THESE STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KMSP...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 07/08Z AND LAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS. UNLESS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIP ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING PUSH.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS AFTERNOONS REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5G10 KT.
FRI...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10G20 KT.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10G20
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020615 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  63  75  64 /  30  20  10  10
INL  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  83  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  64  84  67 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  82  60  83  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020615 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  63  75  64 /  30  20  10  10
INL  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  83  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  64  84  67 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  82  60  83  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020615 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  63  75  64 /  30  20  10  10
INL  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  83  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  64  84  67 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  82  60  83  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020615 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  63  75  64 /  30  20  10  10
INL  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  83  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  64  84  67 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  82  60  83  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 020615 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  63  75  64 /  30  20  10  10
INL  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  83  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  64  84  67 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  82  60  83  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 012356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL SET OFF SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM KBRD INTO KDLH AND KHYR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT
SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOME LOCAL MVFR OR VERY LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  30  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 012356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL SET OFF SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM KBRD INTO KDLH AND KHYR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT
SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOME LOCAL MVFR OR VERY LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  30  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KMPX 012317
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... AND COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF ISSUES
AT KSTC OR KRWF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT AS A
BETTER UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND IS ABLE TO
WORK WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING... SO INCLUDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TEMPOS WITH THE
00Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS... BUT DIDN/T INCLUDE IT AT
THIS POINT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST... WITH MAIN
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 012317
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... AND COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF ISSUES
AT KSTC OR KRWF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT AS A
BETTER UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND IS ABLE TO
WORK WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHOWING A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING... SO INCLUDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TEMPOS WITH THE
00Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS... BUT DIDN/T INCLUDE IT AT
THIS POINT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST... WITH MAIN
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
AND INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 012126 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A COMPACT...POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN/ERN MN TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS SHROUDED
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO
SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS VORT
TONIGHT AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON
THIS POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SRN MN
TO EAST CENTRAL MN AS THIS VORT TRACKS THROUGH WITH GOOD
FORCING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ BY 06Z POINTING INTO
SWRN MN. THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL IF AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN ON THE HRRR
AND 15Z HOPWRF MEMBERS LATER THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
TODAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. A NOTED
EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MORRISON...DOUGLAS...AND TODD
COUNTIES WHERE A BOUNDARY EXISTS. NORTH OF THAT...DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY OR STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S FROM NEAR
WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WHAT EVER DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE VORT ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND ESPECIALLY WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER WI WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE VORT CAN FINALLY EXIT WELL TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM.
GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM
BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN...WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT
VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF. THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM THIS
REGION COULD SAVE THE AREA FROM EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES A FEW DAYS
IN A ROW...THOUGH IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID.
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID 90S DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS WHICH
COULD BE A BIT LOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING TODAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP FAR ENOUGH WEST NOT
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA MUCH UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES OF STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THERMAL RIDGING
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BRING US
OUR BEST SHOT AT 90 JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG IT THANKS
TO GOOD FORCING AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. 850 MB DEW POINTS OF
+16 TO +19C AND PWATS OF 2 INCHES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REMOVED ANY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...WFO DLH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 012023
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 012023
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER




000
FXUS63 KDLH 012023
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 012023
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  80  63  75 /  20  20  20  10
INL  56  85  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  65  83  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  62  82  60  83 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011746 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST REMNANTS OF MORNING SHOWERS WERE DEPARTING NW WI AS OF 1630Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THANKS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 011746 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST REMNANTS OF MORNING SHOWERS WERE DEPARTING NW WI AS OF 1630Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THANKS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO WI
TONIGHT AND TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM
AROUND THE HYR REGION IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH/SE WITH A E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IMPACTING DLH WED
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY LATE WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

***18Z TAFS AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1230 PM AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABLITY...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ALSO COULD BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDLH 011636
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST REMNANTS OF MORNING SHOWERS WERE DEPARTING NW WI AS OF 1630Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THANKS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011636
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST REMNANTS OF MORNING SHOWERS WERE DEPARTING NW WI AS OF 1630Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THANKS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 011636
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST REMNANTS OF MORNING SHOWERS WERE DEPARTING NW WI AS OF 1630Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THANKS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THESE TRENDS. MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011503
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011503
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS



000
FXUS63 KMPX 011503
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRANDS AND OBS.
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME RETURNS. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT HIT ANY OB SITES
YET. WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNONN AS CAPES APPROACH 1000 AND WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WITH FRONTAL SURFACE MOVING THROUGH REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART(DLH)
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 011145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND LIGHT TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AT BRD
WHERE A WEAK HIGH IN THE VICINITY WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TONIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BRD AND HYR...WITH
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT EITHER SITE TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR AT
OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS



000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS



000
FXUS63 KMPX 011058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A REPEAT OF FOG DEVELOMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH EAST OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK. SSE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND SE 10-15 KT BCMG
SW.
THU...VFR. WIND S 15-20 KT.
FRI...CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR PSBL. WIND S 10-20KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS




000
FXUS63 KMPX 010825
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY...STARTING OFF
WITH A BIT LESS STRATUS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAVE TRANSLATED TO MERELY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT
STICKY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LACK THE GUSTINESS THAT MONDAY
BROUGHT...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT NEARBY.

TONIGHT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AND A POCKET OF PV ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS
AFTER DARK WHEN THESE TRIGGERS ARE FORECAST TO KICK IN. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE THE CAUSE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALTER THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
NEAR 800MB THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...SO ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL SATURATION
JUST ABOVE THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO LOWERED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THAT SEEMS TO
ORIGINATE FROM CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND FRIDAY POPS. ON SATURDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14_3 WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND
TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE TRIED TO DELAY POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS TOO MAY BE PUSHED BACK IN TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
STILL IN PLACE...SO LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGE MUCH... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONT TO OUR
WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT FEATURE... BUT DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. SOME
FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THINKING IT SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SITES WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL NOT THICKEN AS MUCH... AND PERHAPS AT KAXN WHERE THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MAY MOVE OUT IN TIME. SOME PCPN GETTING GOING OVER COLORADO
AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW... BUT AT THIS POINT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE AREA... SO DEFINITELY DON/T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER WE SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO AVOID THAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...999



000
FXUS63 KDLH 010824
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  10  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 010824
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  10  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010824
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AREA RADARS HAVE
DEPICTED WEAK ECHOES THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
OBSERVATIONS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT FOR LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THIS MORNING DESPITE MUCAPE OF
500-1000J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE FORCING HAS BEEN JUST TOO
WEAK. FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD LIFT
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM FOR MOST AREAS. WE LEFT A MENTION OF A
SHOWER/STORM OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.
IT WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
REMAIN MUGGY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IF WE GET A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND...SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 80S
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY ROLLS THROUGH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN. STILL EXPECTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN THE TRACK OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEPICTING A WIDE
RANGE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE WEST EVOLVES...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ONLY
INCREASING INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

EVEN WITH THE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE BASICS OF THE LATE WEEK TO
WEEKEND PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...THOUGH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND VERY
HIGH LFC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE VERY WARM AIR MASS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...BUT STILL A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATURDAY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WARM AIR AT
UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 500MB/ MAY RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IT SEEMS
THE STRONGEST FORCING MAY BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BUT HARD TO PUT IT MORE DETAIL THIS DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN TIMING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AGAIN THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A TREND WITH
MODELS SHIFTING THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTHWEST. STILL...BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST...BUT ALL OF
THE NORTHLAND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR AT THIS POINT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRI/SAT/SUN
BUT AT THIS POINT THE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS SIMPLER AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  81  63 /  10  20  20  20
INL  82  55  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  83  65  84  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  81  64  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
ASX  83  62  83  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010557 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WAHPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
INL  54  87  64  85 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  62  84  62  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010557 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WAHPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
INL  54  87  64  85 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  62  84  62  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 010557 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WAHPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
INL  54  87  64  85 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  62  84  62  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 010557 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WAHPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
INL  54  87  64  85 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  62  84  62  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 010557 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WAHPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT HIB EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AT HYR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM LESS LIKELY AT
DLH DO NOT MENTION PRECIP THERE. SMOKE AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO VFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS HIB/HYR WITH LOWER END
MVFR CIGS AT BRD. VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AND NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER 02.06Z WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE BRD/HYR VICINITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  82  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
INL  54  87  64  85 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  65  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  62  84  62  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KMPX 010320
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1020 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGE MUCH... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONT TO OUR
WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT FEATURE... BUT DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. SOME
FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THINKING IT SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SITES WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL NOT THICKEN AS MUCH... AND PERHAPS AT KAXN WHERE THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MAY MOVE OUT IN TIME. SOME PCPN GETTING GOING OVER COLORADO
AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW... BUT AT THIS POINT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE AREA... SO DEFINITELY DON/T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER WE SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO AVOID THAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 010320
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1020 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGE MUCH... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONT TO OUR
WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT FEATURE... BUT DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. SOME
FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THINKING IT SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SITES WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL NOT THICKEN AS MUCH... AND PERHAPS AT KAXN WHERE THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MAY MOVE OUT IN TIME. SOME PCPN GETTING GOING OVER COLORADO
AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW... BUT AT THIS POINT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE AREA... SO DEFINITELY DON/T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER WE SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO AVOID THAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 312355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT... BUT
THAT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN SITES WHICH WON/T SEE AS MUCH
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FRONT TO THE WEST LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND
SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRIMARY ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT RIGHT NOW THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
OF A CONCERN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 312355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT... BUT
THAT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN SITES WHICH WON/T SEE AS MUCH
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FRONT TO THE WEST LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND
SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRIMARY ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT RIGHT NOW THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
OF A CONCERN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 312355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT... BUT
THAT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN SITES WHICH WON/T SEE AS MUCH
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FRONT TO THE WEST LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND
SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRIMARY ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT RIGHT NOW THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
OF A CONCERN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 312355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT... BUT
THAT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN SITES WHICH WON/T SEE AS MUCH
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FRONT TO THE WEST LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND
SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRIMARY ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT RIGHT NOW THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
OF A CONCERN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 312340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WHAPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL SHOWS
SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH SHORE FROM
NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY EARLY IN SPOTS...BUT QUICKLY LOSE THEIR GUSTS WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT GENERALLY NOT RESULTING
IN A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATER
IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI. SOME MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN KHYR AND PERHAPS A FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
CYCLE AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
INL  57  81  54  87 /  10  10  20  20
BRD  64  84  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  67  83  64  84 /  10  20  10  20
ASX  68  82  62  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 312340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WHAPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL SHOWS
SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH SHORE FROM
NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY EARLY IN SPOTS...BUT QUICKLY LOSE THEIR GUSTS WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT GENERALLY NOT RESULTING
IN A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATER
IN THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI. SOME MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN KHYR AND PERHAPS A FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
CYCLE AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
INL  57  81  54  87 /  10  10  20  20
BRD  64  84  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  67  83  64  84 /  10  20  10  20
ASX  68  82  62  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KMPX 312058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW...WE GOT TO START WITH IFR OR WORSE
STRATUS AND TODAY...ITS EAU THAT GETS STUCK WITH IT THE
LONGEST...THOUGH EVEN THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 20Z. ONCE THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES...ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH
BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIP
INTO WC MN THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT. NO ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN WITH IT. FOR STRATUS TONIGHT...NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FINALLY NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS...AT
MN TERMINALS ANYWAYS. IN ADDITION...SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K
FT ARE GREATEST IN NORTHERN WI. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR STRATUS
IS THAT IT WILL ORIGINATE OVER NRN WI AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHY IFR CIGS WERE BROUGHT BACK TO RNH/EAU FOR
NOW.

KMSP...KEPT STRATUS MENTION OUT FOR TONIGHT. ONE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO US TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THE STRATUS REGION FARTHER EAST AS WELL...SO EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO LOW STRATUS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS NOT BEING AS MOIST
TONIGHT. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRATUS POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL NOT BE DEALING
WITH IT AT MSP TUESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU-FRI...CHC MRNG IFR CIGS. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 312058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW...WE GOT TO START WITH IFR OR WORSE
STRATUS AND TODAY...ITS EAU THAT GETS STUCK WITH IT THE
LONGEST...THOUGH EVEN THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 20Z. ONCE THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES...ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH
BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIP
INTO WC MN THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT. NO ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN WITH IT. FOR STRATUS TONIGHT...NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FINALLY NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS...AT
MN TERMINALS ANYWAYS. IN ADDITION...SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K
FT ARE GREATEST IN NORTHERN WI. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR STRATUS
IS THAT IT WILL ORIGINATE OVER NRN WI AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHY IFR CIGS WERE BROUGHT BACK TO RNH/EAU FOR
NOW.

KMSP...KEPT STRATUS MENTION OUT FOR TONIGHT. ONE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO US TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THE STRATUS REGION FARTHER EAST AS WELL...SO EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO LOW STRATUS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS NOT BEING AS MOIST
TONIGHT. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRATUS POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL NOT BE DEALING
WITH IT AT MSP TUESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU-FRI...CHC MRNG IFR CIGS. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KMPX 312058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW EDGE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT STRONG
CAPPING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND WEAK FORCING ARE ALL CONSPIRING
MAKE THIS A DRY FRONT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT NOW
HEADING NE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...DO NOT SEE THE STATUS
OF THE FRONT BEING A DRY ONE CHANGING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO REMOVED
WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD FOR TONIGHT. BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A
5 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF WRN WI...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL NOW.

OF COURSE THE THEME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT HAS
BEEN THE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. WELL...THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT. ONE...THE
PREFRONTAL REGION WE ARE IN HAS BEEN STRATUS FREE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE NOT AS
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT LOOKING AS FOGGY/STRATUSY AS THEY
HAVE SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON 950 MB RH AND SREF PROBS FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3K FT...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WRN WI. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL
BE WAKING UP TO BLUE SKIES. INSTEAD...WE WILL BE REPLACING THE SUB
1K FOOT CLOUDS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MN NOW.

AS FOR THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING IT GETTING FARTHER
AND FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
COME TO A HALT OVERNIGHT...WITH IT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE MPX AREA
ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TOMORROW...SO
HAVE REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD IN WRN WI FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WITH ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SOME
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO
BETTER CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS HANGING AROUND THAT 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IS LIKELY.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE INDICATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SOME CHANCE POPS
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN. THESE POPS ARE THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. OTHER THAN VORTICITY ADVECTION...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIP...SO STILL
THINKING MOST PEOPLE WILL MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN...BUT MUST REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PULLED NORTHEAST
WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE THIS WAVE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT /AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY/. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE EC IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
SUDDENLY INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM COLORADO TO
MINNESOTA. I`M NOT BUYING INTO THIS QUITE YET...BUT IT HAS SHOWN
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SOME SORT OF UPPER WAVE TAKING THIS
COURSE. STUCK WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE ARE ALL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
LABOR DAY...WE GAINED NO ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON EXPECTATIONS FOR
IT. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...THE
GFS AND EC DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF IT...QUITE A BIT. THE EC
WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PUSHING THE STRONG UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST...TOWARD HUDSON BAY...AND SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A
BIT. THE GFS STILL TAKES IT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS MUCH
FASTER. THE BOTTOM LINE REMAINS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO...STUCK
WITH CHANCE POPS THAT ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY SPREAD ACROSS TO BROAD
OF AN AREA...SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THIS WILL CHANGE ONCE THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS DEMONSTRATING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW...WE GOT TO START WITH IFR OR WORSE
STRATUS AND TODAY...ITS EAU THAT GETS STUCK WITH IT THE
LONGEST...THOUGH EVEN THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 20Z. ONCE THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES...ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH
BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIP
INTO WC MN THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT. NO ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN WITH IT. FOR STRATUS TONIGHT...NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FINALLY NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS...AT
MN TERMINALS ANYWAYS. IN ADDITION...SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K
FT ARE GREATEST IN NORTHERN WI. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR STRATUS
IS THAT IT WILL ORIGINATE OVER NRN WI AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHY IFR CIGS WERE BROUGHT BACK TO RNH/EAU FOR
NOW.

KMSP...KEPT STRATUS MENTION OUT FOR TONIGHT. ONE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO US TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THE STRATUS REGION FARTHER EAST AS WELL...SO EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO LOW STRATUS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS NOT BEING AS MOIST
TONIGHT. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRATUS POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL NOT BE DEALING
WITH IT AT MSP TUESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU-FRI...CHC MRNG IFR CIGS. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG



000
FXUS63 KDLH 312002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WHAPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL SHOWS
SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH SHORE FROM
NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
INL  57  81  54  87 /  10  10  20  20
BRD  64  84  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  67  83  64  84 /  10  20  10  20
ASX  68  82  62  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 312002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WHAPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL SHOWS
SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH SHORE FROM
NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
INL  57  81  54  87 /  10  10  20  20
BRD  64  84  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  67  83  64  84 /  10  20  10  20
ASX  68  82  62  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER




000
FXUS63 KMPX 311823
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEEING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
THE DECK IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...LIKELY GIVEN
THE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RESULTING FROM THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AROUND
15Z...WITH SUN BREAKING WAY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL MIGHT BE
A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT DETECTABLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MN
AND WI...BUT NO IMPACT AT THE SURFACE IS FORESEEN.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SAG
INTO WEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH 15G25 KT SPEEDS
COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY HIGHS...GIVEN SIMILAR 925-850 MB TEMPS...BUT
MORE EFFICIENT MIXING WITH THE STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE H7-H85 WARM NOSE...DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MPX CWA. AFTER DARK
HOWEVER...DO SEE HEIGHT FALLS INTO CENTRAL MN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MN. COULD ENVISION A FEW SHOWERS/TS SNEAKING
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE LOW TEMPERATURES AT MSP. ONLY
TWICE HAS THERE BEEN A 4-DAY STREAK IN SEPTEMBER OF LOW TEMPS 70DEG
OR WARMER...AND CURRENTLY THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THE 2ND THROUGH
THE 5TH. THE PREVIOUS SEPTEMBER WARM SPELLS WERE IN 1931 (6 DAYS)
AND 1960 (5 DAYS).

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PROLONGED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES BECAUSE THERE
IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PLUS
DID NOT WANT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM A DRY TO WET FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO STILL ONLY HAVE A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE REASON FOR THE VARIABILITY STEMS
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH ORIGINS TIED TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE BAJA. THIS WAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM...NOT TO MENTION HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE WEST
COAST TROUGH...CANT LATCH ON TO ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST OF I-
35...SPREADING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THE PWATS CLIMB NEAR 2
INCHES...AND MEAN LAYER WIND (STORM MOTION) BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW...WE GOT TO START WITH IFR OR WORSE
STRATUS AND TODAY...ITS EAU THAT GETS STUCK WITH IT THE
LONGEST...THOUGH EVEN THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 20Z. ONCE THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES...ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH
BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIP
INTO WC MN THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT. NO ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN WITH IT. FOR STRATUS TONIGHT...NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FINALLY NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS...AT
MN TERMINALS ANYWAYS. IN ADDITION...SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K
FT ARE GREATEST IN NORTHERN WI. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR STRATUS
IS THAT IT WILL ORIGINATE OVER NRN WI AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHY IFR CIGS WERE BROUGHT BACK TO RNH/EAU FOR
NOW.

KMSP...KEPT STRATUS MENTION OUT FOR TONIGHT. ONE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO US TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THE STRATUS REGION FARTHER EAST AS WELL...SO EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO LOW STRATUS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS NOT BEING AS MOIST
TONIGHT. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRATUS POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL NOT BE DEALING
WITH IT AT MSP TUESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
THU-FRI...CHC MRNG IFR CIGS. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG




000
FXUS63 KDLH 311720 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. THE STRATUS IS HANGING ON IN NW WI...BUT
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING. HAZY SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE DUE TO
SMOKE FROM WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES. COLD FRONT IN NW MN HAS MADE
LITTLE PROGRESS EWD...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER EASTERN ND AND THE EXTREME CORNER OF NW
MN AT 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN NE ND
AND LIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK OVER NW WI AND ADJACENT MN AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME FOG THAT WAS
SLOWLY LIFTING. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND. WITH THE STORMS
MOVING INTO CANADA AND LATEST HRRR INDICATING NO STORMS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF STORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
TUESDAY.

STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS DECENTLY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST LATE TODAY...THEN PROGRESS THE CHANCE
EAST TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. WE EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID
LOWER A BIT IN SPOTS DUE TO THE STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY. WE HAVE
HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 FOR MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE WE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVER FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE SOME STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORM TONIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM 80 TO 85 FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WED/THURS/FRI...FEELING LIKE MID-SUMMER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...A PATTERN WHICH GENERALLY PERSISTS
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WINDY THURSDAY...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS WED AND THURS...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY
WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
IN GENERAL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

SAT/SUN...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS IS A VERY WET OUTLIER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE QUICKER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING POSSIBILITIES.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO IF THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /12-14 KFT/ MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND FAIRLY SATURATED MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GFS DEPICTS A SWATH
OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF 3-
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. GEFS NARR-REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIP
PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL/PSD...A METHOD OF TRYING TO CALIBRATE THE
GEFS FORECASTS TO PAST EVENTS TO PRODUCE A MORE RELIABLE FORECAST
THAN THE RAW GEFS PROBABILITIES...INDICATE ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1"+ PRECIP OVER ANY 12-HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...SO
THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GFS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
AND THEREFORE AM TREATING IT MORE AS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER THAN A
LIKELY SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF SLOWER TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  65  84  63 /   0  30  20  10
INL  85  54  82  56 /  10  30  10  30
BRD  83  63  85  66 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  81  66  84  63 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  83  65  82  61 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 311720 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. THE STRATUS IS HANGING ON IN NW WI...BUT
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING. HAZY SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE DUE TO
SMOKE FROM WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES. COLD FRONT IN NW MN HAS MADE
LITTLE PROGRESS EWD...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER EASTERN ND AND THE EXTREME CORNER OF NW
MN AT 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN NE ND
AND LIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK OVER NW WI AND ADJACENT MN AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME FOG THAT WAS
SLOWLY LIFTING. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND. WITH THE STORMS
MOVING INTO CANADA AND LATEST HRRR INDICATING NO STORMS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF STORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
TUESDAY.

STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS DECENTLY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST LATE TODAY...THEN PROGRESS THE CHANCE
EAST TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. WE EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID
LOWER A BIT IN SPOTS DUE TO THE STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY. WE HAVE
HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 FOR MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE WE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVER FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE SOME STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORM TONIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM 80 TO 85 FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WED/THURS/FRI...FEELING LIKE MID-SUMMER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...A PATTERN WHICH GENERALLY PERSISTS
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WINDY THURSDAY...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS WED AND THURS...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY
WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
IN GENERAL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

SAT/SUN...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS IS A VERY WET OUTLIER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE QUICKER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING POSSIBILITIES.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO IF THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /12-14 KFT/ MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND FAIRLY SATURATED MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GFS DEPICTS A SWATH
OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF 3-
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. GEFS NARR-REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIP
PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL/PSD...A METHOD OF TRYING TO CALIBRATE THE
GEFS FORECASTS TO PAST EVENTS TO PRODUCE A MORE RELIABLE FORECAST
THAN THE RAW GEFS PROBABILITIES...INDICATE ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1"+ PRECIP OVER ANY 12-HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...SO
THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GFS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
AND THEREFORE AM TREATING IT MORE AS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER THAN A
LIKELY SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF SLOWER TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  65  84  63 /   0  30  20  10
INL  85  54  82  56 /  10  30  10  30
BRD  83  63  85  66 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  81  66  84  63 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  83  65  82  61 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 311720 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. THE STRATUS IS HANGING ON IN NW WI...BUT
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING. HAZY SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE DUE TO
SMOKE FROM WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES. COLD FRONT IN NW MN HAS MADE
LITTLE PROGRESS EWD...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER EASTERN ND AND THE EXTREME CORNER OF NW
MN AT 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN NE ND
AND LIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK OVER NW WI AND ADJACENT MN AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME FOG THAT WAS
SLOWLY LIFTING. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND. WITH THE STORMS
MOVING INTO CANADA AND LATEST HRRR INDICATING NO STORMS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF STORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
TUESDAY.

STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS DECENTLY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST LATE TODAY...THEN PROGRESS THE CHANCE
EAST TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. WE EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID
LOWER A BIT IN SPOTS DUE TO THE STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY. WE HAVE
HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 FOR MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE WE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVER FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE SOME STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORM TONIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM 80 TO 85 FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WED/THURS/FRI...FEELING LIKE MID-SUMMER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...A PATTERN WHICH GENERALLY PERSISTS
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WINDY THURSDAY...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS WED AND THURS...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY
WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
IN GENERAL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

SAT/SUN...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS IS A VERY WET OUTLIER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE QUICKER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING POSSIBILITIES.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO IF THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /12-14 KFT/ MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND FAIRLY SATURATED MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GFS DEPICTS A SWATH
OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF 3-
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. GEFS NARR-REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIP
PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL/PSD...A METHOD OF TRYING TO CALIBRATE THE
GEFS FORECASTS TO PAST EVENTS TO PRODUCE A MORE RELIABLE FORECAST
THAN THE RAW GEFS PROBABILITIES...INDICATE ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1"+ PRECIP OVER ANY 12-HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...SO
THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GFS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
AND THEREFORE AM TREATING IT MORE AS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER THAN A
LIKELY SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF SLOWER TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  65  84  63 /   0  30  20  10
INL  85  54  82  56 /  10  30  10  30
BRD  83  63  85  66 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  81  66  84  63 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  83  65  82  61 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER




000
FXUS63 KDLH 311720 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. THE STRATUS IS HANGING ON IN NW WI...BUT
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING. HAZY SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE DUE TO
SMOKE FROM WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES. COLD FRONT IN NW MN HAS MADE
LITTLE PROGRESS EWD...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER EASTERN ND AND THE EXTREME CORNER OF NW
MN AT 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN NE ND
AND LIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK OVER NW WI AND ADJACENT MN AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME FOG THAT WAS
SLOWLY LIFTING. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND. WITH THE STORMS
MOVING INTO CANADA AND LATEST HRRR INDICATING NO STORMS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF STORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
TUESDAY.

STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS DECENTLY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST LATE TODAY...THEN PROGRESS THE CHANCE
EAST TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. WE EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID
LOWER A BIT IN SPOTS DUE TO THE STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY. WE HAVE
HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 FOR MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE WE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVER FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE SOME STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORM TONIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM 80 TO 85 FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WED/THURS/FRI...FEELING LIKE MID-SUMMER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...A PATTERN WHICH GENERALLY PERSISTS
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WINDY THURSDAY...GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS WED AND THURS...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY
WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
IN GENERAL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

SAT/SUN...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS IS A VERY WET OUTLIER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE QUICKER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING POSSIBILITIES.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO IF THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /12-14 KFT/ MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND FAIRLY SATURATED MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GFS DEPICTS A SWATH
OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF 3-
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. GEFS NARR-REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIP
PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL/PSD...A METHOD OF TRYING TO CALIBRATE THE
GEFS FORECASTS TO PAST EVENTS TO PRODUCE A MORE RELIABLE FORECAST
THAN THE RAW GEFS PROBABILITIES...INDICATE ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1"+ PRECIP OVER ANY 12-HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...SO
THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GFS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
AND THEREFORE AM TREATING IT MORE AS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER THAN A
LIKELY SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF SLOWER TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  65  84  63 /   0  30  20  10
INL  85  54  82  56 /  10  30  10  30
BRD  83  63  85  66 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  81  66  84  63 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  83  65  82  61 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER




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