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000
FXUS63 KMPX 090945
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER... WITH CEILINGS MVFR
OR VFR STICKING AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS CYCLONIC
FLOW WANES AND THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... AND IT
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK SSE OVER TIME. IN ADDITION... CEILINGS ARE VFR
OVER A GOOD PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS WORK INTO THAT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT IF THAT
TREND PERSISTS. AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS... DID ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT FASTER IMPROVEMENT AND BETTER
OVERALL CEILING CATEGORIES. FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED IN MOST
AREAS... AND WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST LONGEST... ALTHOUGH
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING IT IS GENERALLY NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

KMSP...MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK... AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
TREND TO VFR EVEN WHILE STILL BKN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BEST
ESTIMATES... BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE TIMING ERRORS OF A FEW
HOURS SO UPDATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...



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000
FXUS63 KDLH 090540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1140 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW OUT OF NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY NEAR HURLEY...OF 4 INCHES FROM 6 TO 8 PM. ON RADAR...WE ARE
CATCHING THE TOP EDGE OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STREAMING
STRAIGHT DOWN INTO NORTHERN IRON COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
THE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
ALOFT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL RH BOUNDARY VALUES...AND
CONTINUED NORTH 1000-850MB WINDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...FOR THE SAME TIME

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 05Z. MOST SITES VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN -SN IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KHYR EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
12Z...WITH KHYR LINGERING LONGER DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21Z. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT G20KT TO ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW 10KTS FOR ALL SITES BY 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  20   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 090540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1140 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW OUT OF NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY NEAR HURLEY...OF 4 INCHES FROM 6 TO 8 PM. ON RADAR...WE ARE
CATCHING THE TOP EDGE OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STREAMING
STRAIGHT DOWN INTO NORTHERN IRON COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
THE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
ALOFT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL RH BOUNDARY VALUES...AND
CONTINUED NORTH 1000-850MB WINDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...FOR THE SAME TIME

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 05Z. MOST SITES VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN -SN IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KHYR EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
12Z...WITH KHYR LINGERING LONGER DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21Z. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT G20KT TO ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW 10KTS FOR ALL SITES BY 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  20   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 090540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1140 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW OUT OF NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY NEAR HURLEY...OF 4 INCHES FROM 6 TO 8 PM. ON RADAR...WE ARE
CATCHING THE TOP EDGE OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STREAMING
STRAIGHT DOWN INTO NORTHERN IRON COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
THE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
ALOFT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL RH BOUNDARY VALUES...AND
CONTINUED NORTH 1000-850MB WINDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...FOR THE SAME TIME

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 05Z. MOST SITES VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN -SN IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KHYR EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
12Z...WITH KHYR LINGERING LONGER DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21Z. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT G20KT TO ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW 10KTS FOR ALL SITES BY 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  20   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 090347
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
947 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN
SINCE NOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAD OCCURRED
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES AND FAIRMONT. SEVERAL
HIGHWAYS IN SW MN AND I-90 WERE CLOSED THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS. WEB
CAMS IN THESE AREA DOES SHOW IMPROVEMENT...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY THE EVENING...THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH "BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE REALIZED...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR EC MN/WC WI DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY TEMPS WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED DURING
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE DAYS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE WEATHER FRONT...THERE ARE THREE SNOW EVENTS DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE THIRD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE ENDED UP ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF CAME FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE
OF MN AND WAS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ONE INCH FROM
MADISON TO FAIRMONT.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS ON ABOUT THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE WEDNESDAY
ONE. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS. PARTS
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD SWITCH RATHER QUICKLY TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKER INCOMING WAVE THAT KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER ON
BACKING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST AS IT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS MN AND IA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WITH THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...WE
OPTED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 25-30
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WI CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER... WITH CEILINGS MVFR
OR VFR STICKING AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS CYCLONIC
FLOW WANES AND THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... AND IT
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK SSE OVER TIME. IN ADDITION... CEILINGS ARE VFR
OVER A GOOD PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS WORK INTO THAT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT IF THAT
TREND PERSISTS. AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS... DID ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT FASTER IMPROVEMENT AND BETTER
OVERALL CEILING CATEGORIES. FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED IN MOST
AREAS... AND WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST LONGEST... ALTHOUGH
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING IT IS GENERALLY NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.

KMSP...MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK... AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
TREND TO VFR EVEN WHILE STILL BKN. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BEST
ESTIMATES... BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE TIMING ERRORS OF A FEW
HOURS SO UPDATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 090305
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
905 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW OUT OF NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY NEAR HURLEY...OF 4 INCHES FROM 6 TO 8 PM. ON RADAR...WE ARE
CATCHING THE TOP EDGE OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STREAMING
STRAIGHT DOWN INTO NORTHERN IRON COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
THE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
ALOFT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL RH BOUNDARY VALUES...AND
CONTINUED NORTH 1000-850MB WINDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...FOR THE SAME TIME
RANGE AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS TO BRING TEMPORARY IFR 1-2SM IN -SN
AND/OR BLSN. CURRENTLY HAVE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 10Z AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT ALL THIS
MAY DO IS SHUT OFF THE -SN AND IMPROVE VISIBILITIES TO VFR. CURRENTLY
HAVE CEILINGS IMPROVING AS WELL AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED.
DO NOT HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  20   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 090026
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN
SINCE NOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAD OCCURRED
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES AND FAIRMONT. SEVERAL
HIGHWAYS IN SW MN AND I-90 WERE CLOSED THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS. WEB
CAMS IN THESE AREA DOES SHOW IMPROVEMENT...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY THE EVENING...THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH "BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE REALIZED...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR EC MN/WC WI DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY TEMPS WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED DURING
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE DAYS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE WEATHER FRONT...THERE ARE THREE SNOW EVENTS DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE THIRD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE ENDED UP ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF CAME FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE
OF MN AND WAS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ONE INCH FROM
MADISON TO FAIRMONT.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS ON ABOUT THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE WEDNESDAY
ONE. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS. PARTS
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD SWITCH RATHER QUICKLY TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKER INCOMING WAVE THAT KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER ON
BACKING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST AS IT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS MN AND IA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WITH THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...WE
OPTED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 25-30
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WI CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WANING VISIBLE AND ARRIVING FOG IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CYCLONIC
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PERSISTING... AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINING... CEILING SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE YET.
THINGS LOOK TO SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST... BUT THE
TIMING OF THAT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CHOSE TO GO THE
SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE... WHICH IS ACTUALLY IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LAMP. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS... AND MAINLY IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WITH BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE DECREASE... BUT DID
INCLUDE SOME FOR A WHILE YET... AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THINGS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GO.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH HOW LONG CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST... AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABOVE OR BELOW 3K FT AGL. WITH
THE INVERSION LOWERING AND THE GENERALLY EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
TRENDS... DID BRING THINGS BACK INTO MVFR... AND DIDN/T ALLOW
THINGS TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM TRENDS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT CEILINGS STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE YET... SO
FEEL REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN THAT EXPECTATION THROUGH AT LEAST
06-09Z. WE COULD SEE SOME FALLING SNOW WORK BACK IN LATER THIS
EVENING... IN WHICH CASE SOME AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 082356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
556 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS TO BRING TEMPORARY IFR 1-2SM IN -SN
AND/OR BLSN. CURRENTLY HAVE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 10Z AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT ALL THIS
MAY DO IS SHUT OFF THE -SN AND IMPROVE VISIBILITIES TO VFR. CURRENTLY
HAVE CEILINGS IMPROVING AS WELL AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED.
DO NOT HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 082356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
556 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS TO BRING TEMPORARY IFR 1-2SM IN -SN
AND/OR BLSN. CURRENTLY HAVE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 10Z AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT ALL THIS
MAY DO IS SHUT OFF THE -SN AND IMPROVE VISIBILITIES TO VFR. CURRENTLY
HAVE CEILINGS IMPROVING AS WELL AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED.
DO NOT HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE



000
FXUS63 KDLH 082356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
556 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS TO BRING TEMPORARY IFR 1-2SM IN -SN
AND/OR BLSN. CURRENTLY HAVE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 10Z AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT ALL THIS
MAY DO IS SHUT OFF THE -SN AND IMPROVE VISIBILITIES TO VFR. CURRENTLY
HAVE CEILINGS IMPROVING AS WELL AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED.
DO NOT HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 082120
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING FROM AROUND -15C THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND -20C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SEEN BY THE THINNING CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE TEMP/AIR
TEMP DIFFERENCE IS IDEAL FOR LES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE....LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
BELOW ZERO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE IRON
RANGE NORTH...WIND CHILL VALUES HIT -25 TO -30 OR SO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GO TO NEAR CALM WITH THE HIGH
MOVING IN DECIDED TO ISSUE ANYWAY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO SINCE JAN 20 AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /-25/. DECIDED TO BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER GIVEN THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG IRON/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY SHOULD THE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO
ALBERTA...MOVING LITTLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING
MOST AREAS DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY.
STABILITY AND FETCH ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
INVERSION LEVELS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. WE HAVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES TO MAYBE 5
INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE DRIER AIR MAY REDUCE
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHLAND...PRODUCING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LOW VFR. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONTINUE LONGER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND EVEN LONGER IN THE SNOWBELT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH A COLD AIRMASS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF
MVFR CEILINGS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   6 -12   5 /  40  10  10   0
INL -11   1 -19   2 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  -3   8 -12   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR   1   7  -8   7 /  70  10  10  10
ASX   5   8  -2   8 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-026.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 082058
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED ACROSS SC/SW/WC MN
SINCE NOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAD OCCURRED
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES AND FAIRMONT. SEVERAL
HIGHWAYS IN SW MN AND I-90 WERE CLOSED THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS. WEB
CAMS IN THESE AREA DOES SHOW IMPROVEMENT...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY THE EVENING...THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH "BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE REALIZED...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS REPLACED WITH
THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAR EC MN/WC WI DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL MN BY DAYBREAK...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY TEMPS WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED DURING
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE DAYS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE WEATHER FRONT...THERE ARE THREE SNOW EVENTS DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE THIRD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE ENDED UP ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF CAME FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE
OF MN AND WAS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ONE INCH FROM
MADISON TO FAIRMONT.

THE SECOND WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS ON ABOUT THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE WEDNESDAY
ONE. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS. PARTS
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ALOFT. THE GFS WOULD SWITCH RATHER QUICKLY TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAKER INCOMING WAVE THAT KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER ON
BACKING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST AS IT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS MN AND IA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WITH THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...WE
OPTED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 25-30
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WI CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTED ONGOING -SHSN ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IN
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE BLSN REGION WIDE...CAUSING VSBYS IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGE...WITH SOME VLIFR CONDS WHERE WIND SPEEDS GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...THE ACCOMPANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0K. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HRS...BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

KMSP...

ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THRU THE
AFTN...WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 2-4SM. THESE MVFR CIGS
/AOA 2.0K/ WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE STRONGEST 24-28 KTS...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND N...BCMG W 5KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>058-064>069-075>077-083>085-092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ073-074-082-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 081741
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING TO THE WEST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR MY WESTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OUT
WEST...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS IN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY UPWARD A BIT. THINK THE AREAS ON THE NORTH
SLOPE OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL OF
5 TO 7 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS THE FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
RATHER THAN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHLAND...PRODUCING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LOW VFR. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONTINUE LONGER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND EVEN LONGER IN THE SNOWBELT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH A COLD AIRMASS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF
MVFR CEILINGS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 / 100  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  19   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1132 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTED ONGOING -SHSN ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IN
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE BLSN REGION WIDE...CAUSING VSBYS IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGE...WITH SOME VLIFR CONDS WHERE WIND SPEEDS GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...THE ACCOMPANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0K. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HRS...BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

KMSP...

ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THRU THE
AFTN...WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 2-4SM. THESE MVFR CIGS
/AOA 2.0K/ WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE STRONGEST 24-28 KTS...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND N...BCMG W 5KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>058-064>069-075>077-084-085.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     049>053-059>063-070-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ083-
     092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ083-092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ073-074-082-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 081231 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING TO THE WEST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR MY WESTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OUT
WEST...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS IN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY UPWARD A BIT. THINK THE AREAS ON THE NORTH
SLOPE OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL OF
5 TO 7 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS THE FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
RATHER THAN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KHYR TODAY. LOW CEILINGS WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
CLEARING FROM THE WEST GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE TERRAIN...THE KDLH AREA
MAY SEE CLEARING EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 / 100  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  17   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 080953
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 /  70  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  18   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KMPX 080356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
956 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMING OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS OR
SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW BECOMES MORE
OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY. KEPT CEILING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE... IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK AROUND LONGER
THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT WILL
BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KMPX 080356
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
956 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMING OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS OR
SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW BECOMES MORE
OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY. KEPT CEILING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE... IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK AROUND LONGER
THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT WILL
BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP



000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 072335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMIMG OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER... WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE DEGREE OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WE/LL SEE. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MOST
OF THE AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING... WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT BLSN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HOWEVER... TODAY/S
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MELTING COMBINED WITH THE QUICK-FREEZE THIS
EVENING COULD WORK TO PUT A CRUST ON THINGS AND LOCK THAT SNOW IN
PLACE... MEANING WE/LL BE DEPENDENT ON NEW SNOWFALL TO BLOW
AROUND. IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A WAITING GAME AT THIS POINT... AND
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CEILINGS LOOK FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH QUITE A BIT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. KEPT CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN FUTURE UPDATES.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. KEPT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR NOW... BUT MAY NEED TO BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE
INCREASED WIND AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-
     050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
     059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KMPX 072335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMIMG OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER... WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE DEGREE OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WE/LL SEE. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MOST
OF THE AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING... WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT BLSN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HOWEVER... TODAY/S
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MELTING COMBINED WITH THE QUICK-FREEZE THIS
EVENING COULD WORK TO PUT A CRUST ON THINGS AND LOCK THAT SNOW IN
PLACE... MEANING WE/LL BE DEPENDENT ON NEW SNOWFALL TO BLOW
AROUND. IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A WAITING GAME AT THIS POINT... AND
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CEILINGS LOOK FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH QUITE A BIT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. KEPT CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN FUTURE UPDATES.

KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. KEPT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR NOW... BUT MAY NEED TO BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE
INCREASED WIND AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ065>067-073>076-
     082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-
     050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
     059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KDLH 072108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 072108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KMPX 072029
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BLIZZARD & WINTER
STORM WARNING TAKES EFFECT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

FIRST...

UPDATED EARLIER ON THE DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PARTS OF SW
MN DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND SNOWFALL HADN/T
MATERIALIZE. PLUS WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT YET BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW WHERE A CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK HAD OCCURRED.
OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING AND/OR ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TONIGHT REMAIN FINE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW STILL
EXPECTED...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTN. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF GENERATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
PLUS...THE DENDRITIC ZONE DEEPENS QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS OF 2
PM...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...IT IS MORE OF A DELAY OF THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN SW/SC MN TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS ENOUGH THAT WITH ANY MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHWARD ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. A GOOD
AREA OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
SW/WC/SC MN.

AS PER WIND SPEEDS... AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE BETWEEN THE SFC...UP TO 90/85H. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOUNDING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM WINDS ON TOP OF
THE THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE. THEREFORE...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THRU AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN...MUCH STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDS.

EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU NOON ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN BY MONDAY AFTN...DECREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERN IS TIMIMG OF ANY SNOW MOVING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGE
TO THE WEST.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOMING SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO COOL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL MN.

THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. H85 TEMEPRATURES REMAIN GENERALLY
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE CFS HAS BEEN
SHWOOING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH ANY POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT IS GENERATED WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE THAT WORKS
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
WARMING TRNED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA
ABOUT SUNDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. TIMING MAYBE OFF AN HR OR
TWO...BUT WINDS PLUS -SN/-SHSN WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS WESTERN MN
AND INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z. MVFR VSBYS WILL DROP TO OCCASIONAL
IFR/LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR BY THE LATE AFTN THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS...AND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
35-45 KTS IN WESTERN MN. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR IN
EASTERN MN...WITH 20-25 KTS IN WC WI. LOW VSBYS IN -SN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THRU MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CONDS
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTN
WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR BY 00Z. SCATTERED -SN/-SHSN/BLSN WILL
DEVELOP AFT 21Z...WITH -SN LIKELY BY 00Z. KEPT ONLY A SHORT TEMPO
PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH TRAFFIC CONCERNS...BUT IFR VSBYS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN -SN/BLSN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22-25
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. WOULD NOT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS
UNTIL AFT 18Z MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-
     050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ054-056>058-
     064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 071800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  34   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  35   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



000
FXUS63 KDLH 071800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  34   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  35   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071735
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. TIMING MAYBE OFF AN HR OR
TWO...BUT WINDS PLUS -SN/-SHSN WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS WESTERN MN
AND INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z. MVFR VSBYS WILL DROP TO OCCASIONAL
IFR/LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR BY THE LATE AFTN THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS...AND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
35-45 KTS IN WESTERN MN. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR IN
EASTERN MN...WITH 20-25 KTS IN WC WI. LOW VSBYS IN -SN/BLSN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THRU MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CONDS
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTN
WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR BY 00Z. SCATTERED -SN/-SHSN/BLSN WILL
DEVELOP AFT 21Z...WITH -SN LIKELY BY 00Z. KEPT ONLY A SHORT TEMPO
PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH TRAFFIC CONCERNS...BUT IFR VSBYS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN -SN/BLSN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22-25
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. WOULD NOT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS
UNTIL AFT 18Z MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT




000
FXUS63 KDLH 071510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KDLH 071510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 071225 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  32   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  33   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071218
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS SN/BLSN MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SETTLE ON WNW BY LATE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO VEER TO NW
TONIGHT THRU TMRW WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCRS TO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE FOR THE MN TAF SITES...15-20 KT FOR THE WI TAF SITES...WITH
GUSTS INCRG TO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WITH AREAS OF -SN MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATER TDA...VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO THE 1-2SM RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND
SRN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ARND 21Z WHEN -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER WHEN MORE SOLID BANDS OF -SN MOVE THRU...
AND THESE BANDS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR PROLONGED
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDS FOR KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 071218
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS SN/BLSN MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SETTLE ON WNW BY LATE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO VEER TO NW
TONIGHT THRU TMRW WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCRS TO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE FOR THE MN TAF SITES...15-20 KT FOR THE WI TAF SITES...WITH
GUSTS INCRG TO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WITH AREAS OF -SN MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATER TDA...VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO THE 1-2SM RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND
SRN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ARND 21Z WHEN -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER WHEN MORE SOLID BANDS OF -SN MOVE THRU...
AND THESE BANDS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR PROLONGED
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDS FOR KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KDLH 071212
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36   9  14  -2 /  80  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  70  80  50  10
HYR  36  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  38  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 071212
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36   9  14  -2 /  80  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  70  80  50  10
HYR  36  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  38  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



000
FXUS63 KMPX 071009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH
THAT TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




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