Home > Products > State Listing > Minnesota Data
Latest:
 AFDDLH |  AFDMPX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 182354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING NIGHT AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARRIVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS REGION HAD EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND THESE WILL HEAD NNE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE LOW CEILING
FORECAST ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR KRWF...KAXN AND
KSTC. THIS AXIS OF LOW CEILINGS WILL PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT KRNH AND KEAU. THIS
MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WARM AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING AND EVEN THEN
KEAU AND THE SOUTH METRO ARE AT MOST RISK FOR TSRA. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS
AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN FROM THE WSW THEREAFTER. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN HEAD BACK DOWN INTO MVFR TERRITORY
DURING THE EVENING. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR TSRA AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING NIGHT AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARRIVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS REGION HAD EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND THESE WILL HEAD NNE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE LOW CEILING
FORECAST ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR KRWF...KAXN AND
KSTC. THIS AXIS OF LOW CEILINGS WILL PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT KRNH AND KEAU. THIS
MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WARM AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING AND EVEN THEN
KEAU AND THE SOUTH METRO ARE AT MOST RISK FOR TSRA. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS
AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN FROM THE WSW THEREAFTER. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN HEAD BACK DOWN INTO MVFR TERRITORY
DURING THE EVENING. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR TSRA AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDLH 182353 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182353 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 182351 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 182351 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182103
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE BATCH OF
CLOUDS COVER IN KS/NE/MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD TAKES THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND
THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST. RAIN IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS TIME HAS GONE ON...NONETHELESS...THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE EVENING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182103
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE BATCH OF
CLOUDS COVER IN KS/NE/MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD TAKES THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND
THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST. RAIN IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS TIME HAS GONE ON...NONETHELESS...THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE EVENING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182103
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE BATCH OF
CLOUDS COVER IN KS/NE/MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD TAKES THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND
THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST. RAIN IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS TIME HAS GONE ON...NONETHELESS...THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE EVENING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 182103
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE BATCH OF
CLOUDS COVER IN KS/NE/MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD TAKES THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND
THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST. RAIN IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS TIME HAS GONE ON...NONETHELESS...THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE EVENING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181839
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
139 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOLER AIR MASS MOVED SW ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS HAD SOME LOWER CLDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NE WINDS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY...SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MN/WI BEFORE NOON. NOT TOO MANY CHGS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF MPX CWA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS DUE
INCREASE TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SE/S WINDS. THE
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL MN...WITH THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MN BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. EVEN
SOME OF THE CAMS REFLECTIVITY PATTERN HOLDS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF MPX CWA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL RISING INTO THE 70S IN MN...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN THIS 36-HR PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPR
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN AS IT ENTERS THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS DISSIPATING
RIDGE IS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
LIFTING OF A SFC WMFNT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI...WHILE A PAIR
OF LOW PRES CENTERS /ONE OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ANOTHER
COMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/ SHIFT EWD IN TANDEM. A CDFNT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE NRN LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W
DURG THE DAY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MRNG. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL THRUST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE
REGION...HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT FOR FRI
AFTN AND EVE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURG THE DAY ON FRI WITH THE WMFNT...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. CAPPING ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVE HRS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME INVERSION AT/NEAR THE SFC WHICH MAY INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPES APPROACH THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACH 40-45 KT AND MIDLVL
LAPSE RATES BECOME DECENT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORM STRENGTH
/APPROXIMATELY 7.0-8.0 C/KM/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NOT ONLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF TSTMS...ESP IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ALSO FOR THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD STORMS GROW DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC SWODY2 MAINTAINS
A 5 PERCENT SEVERE TSTM RISK OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR FRI NIGHT WHICH IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE. AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E. ONLY SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH
THE LIFTING OF THE WMFNT ACRS THE AREA FRI AND AHEAD OF CAA THAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRULY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
REACHED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S BOTH DAYS
WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID 60S...PRODUCING
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WARMUP AND PRECIP ACTIVITY FEATURED
IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WILL NOT BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE CDFNT SAT
NIGHT. THIS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRES AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA
DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 70-DEGREE MARK...LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE BATCH OF
CLOUDS COVER IN KS/NE/MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD TAKES THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND
THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST. RAIN IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS TIME HAS GONE ON...NONETHELESS...THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE EVENING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 181839
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
139 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOLER AIR MASS MOVED SW ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS HAD SOME LOWER CLDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NE WINDS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY...SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MN/WI BEFORE NOON. NOT TOO MANY CHGS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF MPX CWA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS DUE
INCREASE TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SE/S WINDS. THE
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL MN...WITH THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MN BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. EVEN
SOME OF THE CAMS REFLECTIVITY PATTERN HOLDS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF MPX CWA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL RISING INTO THE 70S IN MN...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN THIS 36-HR PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPR
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN AS IT ENTERS THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS DISSIPATING
RIDGE IS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
LIFTING OF A SFC WMFNT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI...WHILE A PAIR
OF LOW PRES CENTERS /ONE OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ANOTHER
COMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/ SHIFT EWD IN TANDEM. A CDFNT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE NRN LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W
DURG THE DAY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MRNG. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL THRUST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE
REGION...HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT FOR FRI
AFTN AND EVE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURG THE DAY ON FRI WITH THE WMFNT...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. CAPPING ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVE HRS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME INVERSION AT/NEAR THE SFC WHICH MAY INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPES APPROACH THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACH 40-45 KT AND MIDLVL
LAPSE RATES BECOME DECENT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORM STRENGTH
/APPROXIMATELY 7.0-8.0 C/KM/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NOT ONLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF TSTMS...ESP IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ALSO FOR THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD STORMS GROW DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC SWODY2 MAINTAINS
A 5 PERCENT SEVERE TSTM RISK OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR FRI NIGHT WHICH IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE. AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E. ONLY SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH
THE LIFTING OF THE WMFNT ACRS THE AREA FRI AND AHEAD OF CAA THAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRULY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
REACHED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S BOTH DAYS
WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID 60S...PRODUCING
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WARMUP AND PRECIP ACTIVITY FEATURED
IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WILL NOT BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE CDFNT SAT
NIGHT. THIS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRES AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA
DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 70-DEGREE MARK...LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE BATCH OF
CLOUDS COVER IN KS/NE/MO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD TAKES THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND
THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST. RAIN IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS TIME HAS GONE ON...NONETHELESS...THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE EVENING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 181732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 180955 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KMPX 180928
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOLER AIR MASS MOVED SW ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS HAD SOME LOWER CLDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NE WINDS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY...SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MN/WI BEFORE NOON. NOT TOO MANY CHGS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF MPX CWA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS DUE
INCREASE TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SE/S WINDS. THE
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL MN...WITH THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MN BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. EVEN
SOME OF THE CAMS REFLECTIVITY PATTERN HOLDS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF MPX CWA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL RISING INTO THE 70S IN MN...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN THIS 36-HR PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPR
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN AS IT ENTERS THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS DISSIPATING
RIDGE IS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
LIFTING OF A SFC WMFNT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI...WHILE A PAIR
OF LOW PRES CENTERS /ONE OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ANOTHER
COMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/ SHIFT EWD IN TANDEM. A CDFNT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE NRN LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W
DURG THE DAY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MRNG. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL THRUST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE
REGION...HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT FOR FRI
AFTN AND EVE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURG THE DAY ON FRI WITH THE WMFNT...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. CAPPING ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVE HRS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME INVERSION AT/NEAR THE SFC WHICH MAY INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPES APPROACH THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACH 40-45 KT AND MIDLVL
LAPSE RATES BECOME DECENT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORM STRENGTH
/APPROXIMATELY 7.0-8.0 C/KM/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NOT ONLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF TSTMS...ESP IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ALSO FOR THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD STORMS GROW DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC SWODY2 MAINTAINS
A 5 PERCENT SEVERE TSTM RISK OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR FRI NIGHT WHICH IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE. AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E. ONLY SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH
THE LIFTING OF THE WMFNT ACRS THE AREA FRI AND AHEAD OF CAA THAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRULY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
REACHED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S BOTH DAYS
WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID 60S...PRODUCING
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WARMUP AND PRECIP ACTIVITY FEATURED
IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WILL NOT BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE CDFNT SAT
NIGHT. THIS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRES AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA
DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 70-DEGREE MARK...LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KAXN WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW HRS
DURING THE MORNING. TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT
14-16Z...LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT. KRWF MAY SEE AN
HR OR TWO OF LIFR CIGS...BUT AGAIN THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. KSTC/KRHN/KEAU WILL REMAIN THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AVIATION
SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO DEEPER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS WI
MOVING W/NW ACROSS THIS REGION. KEPT CONDS IFR/MVFR THRU
15-17Z...BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO
VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL START FROM THE E/NE ARND
5-10 KTS...VEER TO THE SE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT WINDS IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE...EVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KTS ARE LIKELY.

KMSP...

IFR CIGS ACROSS WI MAY AFFECT THE AIR TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IFR CIGS...BUT HIGHER FOR MVFR CIGS AFT
13-14Z. IF THESE CIGS DEVELOP...IT SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR BY
THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL START FROM THE NE ARND 8 KTS...VEER
TO THE E THIS MORNING...THEN MORE SE AND INCREASE ABV 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SOME GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER
WIND SPDS TONIGHT. ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON VCSH/VCTS AFT 12Z/19.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI AFTN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 180910
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOLER AIR MASS MOVED SW ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS HAD SOME LOWER CLDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NE WINDS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY...SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MN/WI BEFORE NOON. NOT TOO MANY CHGS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF MPX CWA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS DUE
INCREASE TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SE/S WINDS. THE
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL MN...WITH THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MN BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. EVEN
SOME OF THE CAMS REFLECTIVITY PATTERN HOLDS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF MPX CWA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL RISING INTO THE 70S IN MN...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN THIS 36-HR PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPR
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN AS IT ENTERS THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS DISSIPATING
RIDGE IS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
LIFTING OF A SFC WMFNT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI...WHILE A PAIR
OF LOW PRES CENTERS /ONE OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ANOTHER
COMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/ SHIFT EWD IN TANDEM. A CDFNT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE NRN LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W
DURG THE DAY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MRNG. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL THRUST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE
REGION...HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT FOR FRI
AFTN AND EVE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURG THE DAY ON FRI WITH THE WMFNT...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. CAPPING ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVE HRS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME INVERSION AT/NEAR THE SFC WHICH MAY INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPES APPROACH THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACH 40-45 KT AND MIDLVL
LAPSE RATES BECOME DECENT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORM STRENGTH
/APPROXIMATELY 7.0-8.0 C/KM/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NOT ONLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF TSTMS...ESP IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ALSO FOR THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD STORMS GROW DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC SWODY2 MAINTAINS
A 5 PERCENT SEVERE TSTM RISK OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR FRI NIGHT WHICH IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE. AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E. ONLY SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH
THE LIFTING OF THE WMFNT ACRS THE AREA FRI AND AHEAD OF CAA THAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRULY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
REACHED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S BOTH DAYS
WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID 60S...PRODUCING
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WARMUP AND PRECIP ACTIVITY FEATURED
IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WILL NOT BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE CDFNT SAT
NIGHT. THIS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRES AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA
DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 70-DEGREE MARK...LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KSTC AND KAXN BEING IMPACTED BEFORE THE 06Z TAFS.
BOTH OF THESE SITES MAY NOT STAY IFR ALL NIGHT LONG DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SE. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS TO
THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. KEAU AND KRNH WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER BR/FG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. THESE SITES ARE MORE PRONE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE NIGHT AND ADVECT
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. KMSP IS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCT LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND 5-6SM BR. KRWF IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP A LOW MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMING SE LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FIRST SURGE OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF BKN008-010 COMING AT THE AIRPORT
FROM THE SE. THE BULK OF THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE AIRFIELD IN CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 180910
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOLER AIR MASS MOVED SW ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COOLER AIR MASS HAD SOME LOWER CLDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NE WINDS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY...SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MN/WI BEFORE NOON. NOT TOO MANY CHGS OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF MPX CWA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS DUE
INCREASE TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SE/S WINDS. THE
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL MN...WITH THE BULK OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MN BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. EVEN
SOME OF THE CAMS REFLECTIVITY PATTERN HOLDS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF MPX CWA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL RISING INTO THE 70S IN MN...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S IN WC WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN THIS 36-HR PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPR
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN AS IT ENTERS THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS DISSIPATING
RIDGE IS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
LIFTING OF A SFC WMFNT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI...WHILE A PAIR
OF LOW PRES CENTERS /ONE OVER SRN MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ANOTHER
COMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/ SHIFT EWD IN TANDEM. A CDFNT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE NRN LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W
DURG THE DAY ON FRI AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MRNG. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL THRUST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE
REGION...HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT FOR FRI
AFTN AND EVE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURG THE DAY ON FRI WITH THE WMFNT...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. CAPPING ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVE HRS BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME INVERSION AT/NEAR THE SFC WHICH MAY INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPES APPROACH THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACH 40-45 KT AND MIDLVL
LAPSE RATES BECOME DECENT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORM STRENGTH
/APPROXIMATELY 7.0-8.0 C/KM/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NOT ONLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF TSTMS...ESP IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...BUT ALSO FOR THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD STORMS GROW DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC SWODY2 MAINTAINS
A 5 PERCENT SEVERE TSTM RISK OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR FRI NIGHT WHICH IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE. AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E. ONLY SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH
THE LIFTING OF THE WMFNT ACRS THE AREA FRI AND AHEAD OF CAA THAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRULY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
REACHED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S BOTH DAYS
WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE CLIMB TO THE LOW-MID 60S...PRODUCING
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WARMUP AND PRECIP ACTIVITY FEATURED
IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WILL NOT BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE CDFNT SAT
NIGHT. THIS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRES AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA
DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 70-DEGREE MARK...LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KSTC AND KAXN BEING IMPACTED BEFORE THE 06Z TAFS.
BOTH OF THESE SITES MAY NOT STAY IFR ALL NIGHT LONG DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SE. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS TO
THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. KEAU AND KRNH WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER BR/FG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. THESE SITES ARE MORE PRONE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE NIGHT AND ADVECT
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. KMSP IS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCT LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND 5-6SM BR. KRWF IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP A LOW MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMING SE LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FIRST SURGE OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF BKN008-010 COMING AT THE AIRPORT
FROM THE SE. THE BULK OF THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE AIRFIELD IN CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180606
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  56 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  55  70  54 /   0  60  60  40
BRD  65  58  71  59 /   0  20  50  30
HYR  60  53  69  63 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  68  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-019-
     020.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-008-
     009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-142>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 180606
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  56 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  55  70  54 /   0  60  60  40
BRD  65  58  71  59 /   0  20  50  30
HYR  60  53  69  63 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  68  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-019-
     020.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-008-
     009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-142>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 180354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KSTC AND KAXN BEING IMPACTED BEFORE THE 06Z TAFS.
BOTH OF THESE SITES MAY NOT STAY IFR ALL NIGHT LONG DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SE. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS TO
THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. KEAU AND KRNH WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER BR/FG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. THESE SITES ARE MORE PRONE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL CEILINGS
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE NIGHT AND ADVECT NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. KMSP IS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT LOW
MVFR CLOUDS AND 5-6SM BR. KRWF IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LOW
MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING SE LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FIRST SURGE OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF BKN008-010 COMING AT THE AIRPORT FROM
THE SE. THE BULK OF THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
THE AIRFIELD IN CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH









000
FXUS63 KMPX 180354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KSTC AND KAXN BEING IMPACTED BEFORE THE 06Z TAFS.
BOTH OF THESE SITES MAY NOT STAY IFR ALL NIGHT LONG DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SE. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS TO
THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. KEAU AND KRNH WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER BR/FG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. THESE SITES ARE MORE PRONE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL CEILINGS
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE NIGHT AND ADVECT NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. KMSP IS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT LOW
MVFR CLOUDS AND 5-6SM BR. KRWF IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LOW
MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING SE LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FIRST SURGE OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF BKN008-010 COMING AT THE AIRPORT FROM
THE SE. THE BULK OF THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
THE AIRFIELD IN CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH










000
FXUS63 KMPX 172357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS IF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL FORM AND WHERE
IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CEILINGS POINT
TO KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC WHILE THE NAM/RAP SUGGEST KRNH AND KEAU.
THE LATTER IS MORE OF AN ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CURRENT LOW CEILINGS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE FORMER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. AT THIS POINT PUT
MORE STOCK IN THE SREF PROBABILITIES WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THE
THREE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR VSBYS FOR 2
TO 3 HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS COMMON WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS AT KAXN.

KMSP...KEPT A VFR FORECAST IN PLACE WITH SCT008 AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. INDICATED 6SM BR AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY
AT THE SATELLITE AIRPORTS AROUND THE TWIN CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW VFR CEILING MAY FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS (030-035) BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SCT030 INDICATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 172357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS IF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL FORM AND WHERE
IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CEILINGS POINT
TO KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC WHILE THE NAM/RAP SUGGEST KRNH AND KEAU.
THE LATTER IS MORE OF AN ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CURRENT LOW CEILINGS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE FORMER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. AT THIS POINT PUT
MORE STOCK IN THE SREF PROBABILITIES WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THE
THREE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR VSBYS FOR 2
TO 3 HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS COMMON WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS AT KAXN.

KMSP...KEPT A VFR FORECAST IN PLACE WITH SCT008 AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. INDICATED 6SM BR AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY
AT THE SATELLITE AIRPORTS AROUND THE TWIN CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW VFR CEILING MAY FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS (030-035) BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SCT030 INDICATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 172357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS IF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL FORM AND WHERE
IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CEILINGS POINT
TO KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC WHILE THE NAM/RAP SUGGEST KRNH AND KEAU.
THE LATTER IS MORE OF AN ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CURRENT LOW CEILINGS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE FORMER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. AT THIS POINT PUT
MORE STOCK IN THE SREF PROBABILITIES WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THE
THREE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR VSBYS FOR 2
TO 3 HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS COMMON WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS AT KAXN.

KMSP...KEPT A VFR FORECAST IN PLACE WITH SCT008 AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. INDICATED 6SM BR AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY
AT THE SATELLITE AIRPORTS AROUND THE TWIN CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW VFR CEILING MAY FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS (030-035) BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SCT030 INDICATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KMPX 172357
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS IF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL FORM AND WHERE
IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CEILINGS POINT
TO KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC WHILE THE NAM/RAP SUGGEST KRNH AND KEAU.
THE LATTER IS MORE OF AN ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CURRENT LOW CEILINGS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE FORMER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. AT THIS POINT PUT
MORE STOCK IN THE SREF PROBABILITIES WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THE
THREE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR VSBYS FOR 2
TO 3 HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS COMMON WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS AT KAXN.

KMSP...KEPT A VFR FORECAST IN PLACE WITH SCT008 AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. INDICATED 6SM BR AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY
AT THE SATELLITE AIRPORTS AROUND THE TWIN CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW VFR CEILING MAY FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS (030-035) BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SCT030 INDICATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH






000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 172054
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF 1000-1500FT STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHER MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...SO
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD GET PUSHED TOWARD CENTRAL MN/WI
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO
WATCH WITH WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MVFR
CEILING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
MN. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...THE CEILINGS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
BELOW 1700FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE
NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 172054
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF 1000-1500FT STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHER MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...SO
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD GET PUSHED TOWARD CENTRAL MN/WI
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO
WATCH WITH WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MVFR
CEILING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
MN. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...THE CEILINGS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
BELOW 1700FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE
NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KMPX 171803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF 1000-1500FT STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHER MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...SO
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD GET PUSHED TOWARD CENTRAL MN/WI
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO
WATCH WITH WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

KMSP...

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MVFR
CEILING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN
MN. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...THE CEILINGS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
BELOW 1700FT.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE
NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171737 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 171737 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 171737 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 171737 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






000
FXUS63 KDLH 171359
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
859 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT KINL AND KHIB THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  55  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  70  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 171222 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT KINL AND KHIB THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 171222 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT KINL AND KHIB THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 171215
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 171215
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 170955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE 24 HR PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY S/SW UNDER 5 KTS
THIS MORNING...THEN MORE N/NNE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE E/ESE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE 24 HR PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY S/SW UNDER 5 KTS
THIS MORNING...THEN MORE N/NNE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE E/ESE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE 24 HR PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY S/SW UNDER 5 KTS
THIS MORNING...THEN MORE N/NNE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE E/ESE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KMPX 170955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE 24 HR PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY S/SW UNDER 5 KTS
THIS MORNING...THEN MORE N/NNE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE E/ESE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT





000
FXUS63 KDLH 170854
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


...ABRUPT CHANGE IN WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARMUP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A MARKED
CHANGE IN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS AS WELL.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  50
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KMPX 170854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND MID MORNING. ALL BASES
WILL REMAIN VFR.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 170854
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHGS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY THIS AFTN...AND THRU MOST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST/SW...TO A MORE E/NE
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE UNLESS YOU LIVE IN
WC WI WHICH HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THIS TEMPORARY CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES WHILE SFC
HIGH PRES DRIVES ESE FROM WRN CANADA TO JUST N OF THE DAKOTAS WED
NIGHT INTO THU. ALOFT...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES E...IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE
COMBINATION OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE
MOIST RETURN FROM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH... WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PRECIP ALONG WITH EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT THE SCENARIO SETTING UP
LOOKS TO HAVE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL EARLY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER THE TRAILING COLD
POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...BUT ISOLATED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW
SINCE PEAK HEATING DOES NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH BEST CAPE POTENTIAL
AND DEEP SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OF
DEEP BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WBZ DOWN TO 11-12 KFT
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL TSTM. TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT BUT IS DOES BEAR
WATCHING. THE CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN ON
SAT...BEING NUDGED ALONG BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND AWAY FROM THE WFO MPX CWFA. CONDS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM
THE W. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EASILY ECLIPSING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS FOR FRI AND SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE PORTION
OF THE FCST AS HIGH PRES EXPANDING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE SCENARIO COME SUN. IN ADDITION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECIDEDLY NW...ALLOWING STABLE CAA TO PREVAIL
WHILE HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE AREA IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
EXPANDS WWD OVER WI AND MN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND MID MORNING. ALL BASES
WILL REMAIN VFR.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 170529
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A MARKED
CHANGE IN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS AS WELL.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  48  65 /   0   0  20  60
INL  37  62  51  69 /   0   0  40  60
BRD  43  65  55  71 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  39  62  51  67 /   0   0  20  60
ASX  37  59  49  66 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KDLH 170529
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A MARKED
CHANGE IN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS AS WELL.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  48  65 /   0   0  20  60
INL  37  62  51  69 /   0   0  40  60
BRD  43  65  55  71 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  39  62  51  67 /   0   0  20  60
ASX  37  59  49  66 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 170401 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND MID MORNING. ALL BASES
WILL REMAIN VFR.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 170401 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND MID MORNING. ALL BASES
WILL REMAIN VFR.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 170401 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND MID MORNING. ALL BASES
WILL REMAIN VFR.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 170008 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN MN. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO EXPAND EARLY
THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. ALL BASES WILL REMAIN VFR.
THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...SO REMOVED THE
MENTION NEAR DAWN AT EAU.

KMSP...LOOKING AT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING THAT
SHOULD LAST THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 170008 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN MN. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO EXPAND EARLY
THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. ALL BASES WILL REMAIN VFR.
THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...SO REMOVED THE
MENTION NEAR DAWN AT EAU.

KMSP...LOOKING AT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING THAT
SHOULD LAST THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 170008 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN MN. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO EXPAND EARLY
THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. ALL BASES WILL REMAIN VFR.
THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...SO REMOVED THE
MENTION NEAR DAWN AT EAU.

KMSP...LOOKING AT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING THAT
SHOULD LAST THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF






000
FXUS63 KMPX 170008 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ONCE AGAIN A QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY MINOR
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF FROST IN WESTERN WI. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A PRETTY GOOD MID DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH. I KEPT THE PATCHY FOG PREVIOUSLY ISSUED - LIKE
KEEPING THE FOG TO THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES OR THIN CLOUDS. PLEASANT
WEATHER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONTINENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT... THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS... BUT EVERYTHING
STILL FAVORS A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN RESUMING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THINGS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE QUITE
WELL ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION... WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY
DURING THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE ONCE AGAIN... AND IS
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT STILL WINDS UP
WITH A SIMILAR LONG WAVE PATTERN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
AND MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE GFS AND GEFS. THE GEFS AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... AND GEFS 500MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY ERROR IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE WITH IT BEING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
RIDGE/TROUGH AXES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS... THE
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY DUE TO INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT CLOSER TO US WHILE KEEPING THE
RIDGE FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE... AND CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS... A FAIRLY
EVENLY SPLIT CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED COURSE
OF ACTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB. WE SHOULD SEE THAT WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE CAP BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SOMETHING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY IT
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR THINGS
TO START TO CLEAR OUT... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VARIED QUITE A
BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SHRA THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
AT THIS POINT... COLD FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB... SO IT/S
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER WE/LL SEE MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOP TOO LONG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. DURING PEAK HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING... MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET... AND THE LATEST RUNS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AOA 45KT AND 0-3K SRH WELL ABOVE 400 M2/S2. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO MAINLY FAVOR WIND VS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AT
THIS POINT... SO ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY HAIL/WIND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WINDOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS FAIRLY
HIGH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE FRIDAY... AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COOL OFF SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN MN. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO EXPAND EARLY
THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. ALL BASES WILL REMAIN VFR.
THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...SO REMOVED THE
MENTION NEAR DAWN AT EAU.

KMSP...LOOKING AT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING THAT
SHOULD LAST THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BORGHOFF






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities