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000
FXUS63 KMPX 312101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO NICELY
SHOW THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SIDES...ALONG WITH SOLID NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES. KMPX RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE CELLS
AGAIN DRIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MEANS EVEN LESSER STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT 20-30 POPS ARE
REQUIRED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT IS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA FOR FRIDAY. THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE BETTER FRIDAY DUE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MN/WI.
ADDING IN MODEST INSTABILITY AND THERE ARE MORE INGREDIENTS
AVAILABLE FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND/OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE
OF THE SAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY
FOR THE ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA...WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...OWING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...ALBEIT QUITE LIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A WETTER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WE
DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN WITH US ALL OF THIS WORK.
ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THIS
WEEK...THE ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH WILL BE OUR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN NOAM
TROUGH...MOVING SE OF THE MPX AREA FRIDAY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY SATURDAY THAT WILL
ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK.

ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
DIPPING INTO NRN MN...THAT WILL BE INTO CENTRAL MN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
MORE OR LESS STALL OUT BETWEEN CENTRAL MN AND NRN IA...WHICH MEANS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE ARE BASICALLY CHANCE POPS EVERY
DAY AS THIS FRONT LOITERS IN THE REGION. FORCING EACH DAY DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY CONSISTING OF WEAK WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE. EACH WAVE WILL LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SRLY LOW LEVELS WINDS AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE
FEATURES...HENCE THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SMEARING OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
LOOKS BEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WHERE POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL ORIGINATE IN THE SW MONSOON THIS WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN EMERGING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AS THIS HAPPENS...A LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM WRN SODAK DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY...WITH AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
RESULT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A GOOD SLOW MOVING MCS
SIGNAL ACROSS SRN MN TUESDAY NIGHT AS DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
BECOMES MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK THAT WILL COINCIDE WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ NOSING UP INTO SRN MN.
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...HENCE INCREASING POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NICE 2-4 INCH QPF SWATH WORKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE MPX CWA AND WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WI. WE
SHOULD MORE OR LESS GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKING TO BE DRY.

THOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING H5 WINDS
AROUND 30KTS...WHICH WILL KEEP BULK SHEAR UP AROUND 30 KTS AS
WELL...SO SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANY DAY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS...THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THE SEVERE
RISK. FORTUNATELY...WE HAVE BEEN DRY THE LAST 3 OR 4 WEEKS...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS WHAT WE WERE
DEALING WITH IN JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WILL LOOK FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THEN...INCLUDING THE WI TAF SITES. NOT
SEEING NEARLY THE INDICATORS THAT WERE PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR CREATING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MAY IMPACT NWRN WI THEN DRIFT
SEWD TO NEAR KRNH-KEAU. A STRAY SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AND WILL MONITOR/AMEND AS NEEDED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TMRW...MAINLY OVER
WI. THIS COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY EARLY-
TO-MID AFTERNOON TMRW...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN WI. TIMING IS STILL
AN ISSUE...LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE 18Z CUTOFF...SO THE THINKING
WAS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO UP TO 18Z TMRW THEN LATER TAFS CAN BETTER
REFINE THE THINKING OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS AOB 10 KT
THROUGHOUT THIS SET.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z TMRW. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WI TMRW AFTN AND SPREADS W...SOME DEGRADED CONDS
COULD IMPACT MSP LATER TMRW AFTN. ATTM...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR
BUT MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 312101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO NICELY
SHOW THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SIDES...ALONG WITH SOLID NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES. KMPX RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE CELLS
AGAIN DRIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MEANS EVEN LESSER STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT 20-30 POPS ARE
REQUIRED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT IS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA FOR FRIDAY. THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE BETTER FRIDAY DUE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MN/WI.
ADDING IN MODEST INSTABILITY AND THERE ARE MORE INGREDIENTS
AVAILABLE FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND/OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE
OF THE SAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY
FOR THE ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA...WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...OWING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...ALBEIT QUITE LIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A WETTER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WE
DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN WITH US ALL OF THIS WORK.
ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THIS
WEEK...THE ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH WILL BE OUR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN NOAM
TROUGH...MOVING SE OF THE MPX AREA FRIDAY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY SATURDAY THAT WILL
ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK.

ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
DIPPING INTO NRN MN...THAT WILL BE INTO CENTRAL MN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
MORE OR LESS STALL OUT BETWEEN CENTRAL MN AND NRN IA...WHICH MEANS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE ARE BASICALLY CHANCE POPS EVERY
DAY AS THIS FRONT LOITERS IN THE REGION. FORCING EACH DAY DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY CONSISTING OF WEAK WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE. EACH WAVE WILL LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SRLY LOW LEVELS WINDS AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE
FEATURES...HENCE THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SMEARING OF LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
LOOKS BEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WHERE POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL ORIGINATE IN THE SW MONSOON THIS WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN EMERGING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AS THIS HAPPENS...A LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM WRN SODAK DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY...WITH AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
RESULT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A GOOD SLOW MOVING MCS
SIGNAL ACROSS SRN MN TUESDAY NIGHT AS DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
BECOMES MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK THAT WILL COINCIDE WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ NOSING UP INTO SRN MN.
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...HENCE INCREASING POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NICE 2-4 INCH QPF SWATH WORKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE MPX CWA AND WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WI. WE
SHOULD MORE OR LESS GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKING TO BE DRY.

THOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING H5 WINDS
AROUND 30KTS...WHICH WILL KEEP BULK SHEAR UP AROUND 30 KTS AS
WELL...SO SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANY DAY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS...THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THE SEVERE
RISK. FORTUNATELY...WE HAVE BEEN DRY THE LAST 3 OR 4 WEEKS...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS WHAT WE WERE
DEALING WITH IN JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WILL LOOK FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THEN...INCLUDING THE WI TAF SITES. NOT
SEEING NEARLY THE INDICATORS THAT WERE PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR CREATING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MAY IMPACT NWRN WI THEN DRIFT
SEWD TO NEAR KRNH-KEAU. A STRAY SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AND WILL MONITOR/AMEND AS NEEDED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TMRW...MAINLY OVER
WI. THIS COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY EARLY-
TO-MID AFTERNOON TMRW...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN WI. TIMING IS STILL
AN ISSUE...LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE 18Z CUTOFF...SO THE THINKING
WAS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO UP TO 18Z TMRW THEN LATER TAFS CAN BETTER
REFINE THE THINKING OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS AOB 10 KT
THROUGHOUT THIS SET.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z TMRW. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WI TMRW AFTN AND SPREADS W...SOME DEGRADED CONDS
COULD IMPACT MSP LATER TMRW AFTN. ATTM...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR
BUT MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC






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000
FXUS63 KDLH 312026
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT WNW TO NW
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES IN THE MUCH DRIER FLOW...WHILE THE
SW AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORE
HUMID FLOW. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE WIND SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

TONIGHT...COOL AND RELATIVELY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE VERY
LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BRIEF ISOLATED FOG OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
NOT VERY SUGGESTIVE OF THE FOG...SO I LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD IT LATER. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS
THAT NW WISCONSIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY FOG...SUCH AS
AT KHYR...OUR USUAL SUSPECT.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND...BUT AREAS
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE ONSHORE WIND DUE TO A LAKE
BREEZE. THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK BOUNDARY MIGHT SET UP NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NW WISCONSIN. THIS COULD BE THE AREA
FOR SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT WITH VERY
WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. THE NAM12 AND SREF
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DUE TO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM THE LAKE BREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN AND THAT AREA IS IMPACTED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. WE
HAVE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT/LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
FORECAST TO FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND IT COULD SHIFT NORTH AND IMPACT MORE OF OUR REGION.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER
EIGHTIES...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  78  56  80 /  10  20  10  10
INL  49  80  52  81 /  10  10  10  30
BRD  56  82  58  83 /  20  20  10  10
HYR  53  80  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  52  75  52  78 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  56 /  10  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  52 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  54 /  20  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  52 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  56 /  10  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  52 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  54 /  20  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  52 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS
RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A
SOUTH WESTERLY COMPONENT.

LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS
AFTERNOON A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND
EVEN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW
SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES
GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
AND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WILL LOOK FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THEN...INCLUDING THE WI TAF SITES. NOT
SEEING NEARLY THE INDICATORS THAT WERE PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR CREATING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MAY IMPACT NWRN WI THEN DRIFT
SEWD TO NEAR KRNH-KEAU. A STRAY SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AND WILL MONITOR/AMEND AS NEEDED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TMRW...MAINLY OVER
WI. THIS COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY EARLY-
TO-MID AFTERNOON TMRW...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN WI. TIMING IS STILL
AN ISSUE...LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE 18Z CUTOFF...SO THE THINKING
WAS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO UP TO 18Z TMRW THEN LATER TAFS CAN BETTER
REFINE THE THINKING OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS AOB 10 KT
THROUGHOUT THIS SET.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z TMRW. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WI TMRW AFTN AND SPREADS W...SOME DEGRADED CONDS
COULD IMPACT MSP LATER TMRW AFTN. ATTM...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR
BUT MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 311742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS
RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A
SOUTH WESTERLY COMPONENT.

LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS
AFTERNOON A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND
EVEN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW
SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES
GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
AND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WILL LOOK FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THEN...INCLUDING THE WI TAF SITES. NOT
SEEING NEARLY THE INDICATORS THAT WERE PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR CREATING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MAY IMPACT NWRN WI THEN DRIFT
SEWD TO NEAR KRNH-KEAU. A STRAY SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AND WILL MONITOR/AMEND AS NEEDED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TMRW...MAINLY OVER
WI. THIS COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY EARLY-
TO-MID AFTERNOON TMRW...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN WI. TIMING IS STILL
AN ISSUE...LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE 18Z CUTOFF...SO THE THINKING
WAS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO UP TO 18Z TMRW THEN LATER TAFS CAN BETTER
REFINE THE THINKING OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS AOB 10 KT
THROUGHOUT THIS SET.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z TMRW. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WI TMRW AFTN AND SPREADS W...SOME DEGRADED CONDS
COULD IMPACT MSP LATER TMRW AFTN. ATTM...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR
BUT MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






000
FXUS63 KMPX 310848
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS RELAXED
PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A SOUTH
WESTERLY COMPONENT.

LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS AFTERNOON A
SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND EVEN THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT
POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET
NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

POCKETS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT...VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM 22
TO 01.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KMPX 310848
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS RELAXED
PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A SOUTH
WESTERLY COMPONENT.

LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS AFTERNOON A
SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND EVEN THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT
POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET
NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

POCKETS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT...VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM 22
TO 01.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310845
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310845
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310845
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 310845
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KMPX 310557
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH EAST...RIDGE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...
AROUND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING FURTHER WEST INTO
MINNESOTA...ASIDE FROM DIURNAL POP-UP MID-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN...
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE FOR TODAY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AM EXPECTING LESSER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECORDED EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THINGS STILL
LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
FLATTENS SOME WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER TIME. OF CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
IS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST/EAST INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE... WHICH HELPS TO BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL ALREADY BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN SITU FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOITERS IN THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY... RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES OR SO. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF PCPN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME... AND IT/S POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. BUT... THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING A BIT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SERIES OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRIOR TO THAT...
WE/LL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHTER PCPN AS
SHORTWAVES CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WE MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR SOME SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KEAU WHICH HAD A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AROUND SUNSET. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
LIFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 08Z. ON THURSDAY EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 4-5KFT.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...999
AVIATION...JRB






000
FXUS63 KMPX 310557
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH EAST...RIDGE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...
AROUND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING FURTHER WEST INTO
MINNESOTA...ASIDE FROM DIURNAL POP-UP MID-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN...
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE FOR TODAY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AM EXPECTING LESSER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECORDED EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THINGS STILL
LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
FLATTENS SOME WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER TIME. OF CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
IS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST/EAST INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE... WHICH HELPS TO BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL ALREADY BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN SITU FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOITERS IN THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY... RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES OR SO. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF PCPN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME... AND IT/S POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. BUT... THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING A BIT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SERIES OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRIOR TO THAT...
WE/LL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHTER PCPN AS
SHORTWAVES CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WE MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR SOME SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KEAU WHICH HAD A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AROUND SUNSET. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
LIFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 08Z. ON THURSDAY EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 4-5KFT.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...999
AVIATION...JRB







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310520
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  79  56  77 /  20  20  10  20
INL  53  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  56  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  53  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  53  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 302344
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH EAST...RIDGE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...
AROUND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING FURTHER WEST INTO
MINNESOTA...ASIDE FROM DIURNAL POP-UP MID-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN...
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE FOR TODAY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AM EXPECTING LESSER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECORDED EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THINGS STILL
LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
FLATTENS SOME WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER TIME. OF CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
IS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST/EAST INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE... WHICH HELPS TO BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL ALREADY BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN SITU FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOITERS IN THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY... RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES OR SO. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF PCPN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME... AND IT/S POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. BUT... THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING A BIT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SERIES OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRIOR TO THAT...
WE/LL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHTER PCPN AS
SHORTWAVES CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WE MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR SOME SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE
CHANCE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AROUND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUGGEST SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN WISC...ESPECIALLY
IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

THURSDAY WEATHER WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON
OR EVENING SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC ARE POSSIBLE
AS UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER JAMES BAY. THUS OCCASIONAL SHORT
WAVES ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE. MAYBE SOME
THUNDER IN A COUPLE SPOTS AS WELL TOMORROW. WESTERN MN SHOULD JUST HAVE
SOME AFTERNOON CU.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WNW WIND TONIGHT IS
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG AT KMSP. MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN NW WINDS TO 8-10 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDER. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 302344
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH EAST...RIDGE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...
AROUND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING FURTHER WEST INTO
MINNESOTA...ASIDE FROM DIURNAL POP-UP MID-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN...
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE FOR TODAY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AM EXPECTING LESSER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECORDED EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THINGS STILL
LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
FLATTENS SOME WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER TIME. OF CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
IS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST/EAST INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE... WHICH HELPS TO BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL ALREADY BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN SITU FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOITERS IN THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY... RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES OR SO. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF PCPN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME... AND IT/S POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. BUT... THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING A BIT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SERIES OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRIOR TO THAT...
WE/LL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHTER PCPN AS
SHORTWAVES CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WE MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR SOME SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE
CHANCE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AROUND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUGGEST SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN WISC...ESPECIALLY
IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

THURSDAY WEATHER WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON
OR EVENING SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC ARE POSSIBLE
AS UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER JAMES BAY. THUS OCCASIONAL SHORT
WAVES ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE. MAYBE SOME
THUNDER IN A COUPLE SPOTS AS WELL TOMORROW. WESTERN MN SHOULD JUST HAVE
SOME AFTERNOON CU.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WNW WIND TONIGHT IS
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG AT KMSP. MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN NW WINDS TO 8-10 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDER. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT NOT AT KHYR UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING...THEN ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KHYR AND KHIB...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  10  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT NOT AT KHYR UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING...THEN ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KHYR AND KHIB...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  10  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT NOT AT KHYR UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING...THEN ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KHYR AND KHIB...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  10  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT NOT AT KHYR UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING...THEN ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KHYR AND KHIB...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  10  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 301944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  30  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  40  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  30  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  40  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  30  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  40  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  30  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  40  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KMPX 301942
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH EAST...RIDGE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...
AROUND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING FURTHER WEST INTO
MINNESOTA...ASIDE FROM DIURNAL POP-UP MID-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN...
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE FOR TODAY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AM EXPECTING LESSER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECORDED EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THINGS STILL
LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
FLATTENS SOME WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER TIME. OF CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
IS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST/EAST INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE... WHICH HELPS TO BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL ALREADY BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN SITU FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOITERS IN THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY... RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES OR SO. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF PCPN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME... AND IT/S POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. BUT... THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING A BIT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SERIES OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRIOR TO THAT...
WE/LL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHTER PCPN AS
SHORTWAVES CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WE MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR SOME SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CONCERNS AT MN TAF SITES...BOTH FROM A FOG AND PRECIP
STANDPOINT. MIDLVL CU CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THE SKIES THE REST OF
THE AFTN HOURS...THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED AGAIN
BY LATE MRNG MIDLVL CU CLOUDS ON THU. NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN
DROP TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NW IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE TMRW.

WI TAF SITES WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO PASSING -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLD TSTMS...LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. COVERAGE IS
NOT XPCTD TO BE AS MUCH AS YDA...BUT HAVING A STRAY SHWR/TSTM
DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH
AT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS MENTION...BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN AN AMD. IN ADDITION...KEAU LOOKS TO AGAIN
POTENTIALLY HAVE PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DROP CONDS DOWN TO IFR-OR-WORSE ATTM BUT DID INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL BY DROPPING VSBY INTO LOW-END MVFR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGHOUT THIS SET WITH NO PRECIP XPCTD.
MIDLVL CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP...LASTING THRU MID-EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING FOR OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MIDLVL CU LAT TMRW MRNG.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC OF MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS SW 5-10
KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 301942
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH EAST...RIDGE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...
AROUND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING FURTHER WEST INTO
MINNESOTA...ASIDE FROM DIURNAL POP-UP MID-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN...
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE FOR TODAY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AM EXPECTING LESSER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECORDED EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THINGS STILL
LOOKING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
FLATTENS SOME WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER TIME. OF CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...
IS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST/EAST INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE... WHICH HELPS TO BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL ALREADY BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN SITU FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOITERS IN THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PCPN/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND PRODUCE COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY... RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES OR SO. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF PCPN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME... AND IT/S POSSIBLE THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. BUT... THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING A BIT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SERIES OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRIOR TO THAT...
WE/LL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHTER PCPN AS
SHORTWAVES CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WE MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR SOME SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CONCERNS AT MN TAF SITES...BOTH FROM A FOG AND PRECIP
STANDPOINT. MIDLVL CU CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THE SKIES THE REST OF
THE AFTN HOURS...THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED AGAIN
BY LATE MRNG MIDLVL CU CLOUDS ON THU. NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN
DROP TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NW IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE TMRW.

WI TAF SITES WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO PASSING -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLD TSTMS...LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. COVERAGE IS
NOT XPCTD TO BE AS MUCH AS YDA...BUT HAVING A STRAY SHWR/TSTM
DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH
AT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS MENTION...BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN AN AMD. IN ADDITION...KEAU LOOKS TO AGAIN
POTENTIALLY HAVE PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DROP CONDS DOWN TO IFR-OR-WORSE ATTM BUT DID INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL BY DROPPING VSBY INTO LOW-END MVFR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGHOUT THIS SET WITH NO PRECIP XPCTD.
MIDLVL CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP...LASTING THRU MID-EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING FOR OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MIDLVL CU LAT TMRW MRNG.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC OF MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS SW 5-10
KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 301745
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING LOCALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING
BELOW 5 MPH...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PERSISTENCE FORECASTING FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY ACCURATE RESULTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY
SKIES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE JAMES BAY LOW
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PROVIDE REPEATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY
THE WEEKEND IN THE SENSE THAT THE FLOW WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED
MAINLY DUE TO THE POLEWARD REGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME EAST/WEST ORIENTED AS IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE 30.00 GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CONSIDERABLY
WELL FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ECMWF DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTH...AND HAS HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A STRONGER
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD FOCUS THE
CONVECTION MORE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI AND HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AT THIS TIME DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WETTER WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY HOOVER AROUND 1.5IN...AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL SITS AT AROUND 11KFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/FLOODING AND KEEP MAX
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3IN RANGE VS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS H700-500 LAPSE
RATES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. HODOGRAPHS TO SHOW GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...SO WONT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CONCERNS AT MN TAF SITES...BOTH FROM A FOG AND PRECIP
STANDPOINT. MIDLVL CU CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THE SKIES THE REST OF
THE AFTN HOURS...THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED AGAIN
BY LATE MRNG MIDLVL CU CLOUDS ON THU. NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN
DROP TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NW IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE TMRW.

WI TAF SITES WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO PASSING -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLD TSTMS...LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. COVERAGE IS
NOT XPCTD TO BE AS MUCH AS YDA...BUT HAVING A STRAY SHWR/TSTM
DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH
AT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS MENTION...BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN AN AMD. IN ADDITION...KEAU LOOKS TO AGAIN
POTENTIALLY HAVE PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DROP CONDS DOWN TO IFR-OR-WORSE ATTM BUT DID INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL BY DROPPING VSBY INTO LOW-END MVFR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGHOUT THIS SET WITH NO PRECIP XPCTD.
MIDLVL CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP...LASTING THRU MID-EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING FOR OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MIDLVL CU LAT TMRW MRNG.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC OF MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS SW 5-10
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC







000
FXUS63 KMPX 301745
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING LOCALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING
BELOW 5 MPH...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PERSISTENCE FORECASTING FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY ACCURATE RESULTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY
SKIES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE JAMES BAY LOW
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PROVIDE REPEATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY
THE WEEKEND IN THE SENSE THAT THE FLOW WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED
MAINLY DUE TO THE POLEWARD REGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME EAST/WEST ORIENTED AS IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE 30.00 GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CONSIDERABLY
WELL FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ECMWF DRIVES THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTH...AND HAS HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A STRONGER
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL
MCS DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD FOCUS THE
CONVECTION MORE ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI AND HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AT THIS TIME DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WETTER WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY HOOVER AROUND 1.5IN...AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL SITS AT AROUND 11KFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/FLOODING AND KEEP MAX
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3IN RANGE VS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS H700-500 LAPSE
RATES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. HODOGRAPHS TO SHOW GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...SO WONT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CONCERNS AT MN TAF SITES...BOTH FROM A FOG AND PRECIP
STANDPOINT. MIDLVL CU CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THE SKIES THE REST OF
THE AFTN HOURS...THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED AGAIN
BY LATE MRNG MIDLVL CU CLOUDS ON THU. NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN
DROP TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NW IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE TMRW.

WI TAF SITES WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO PASSING -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLD TSTMS...LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. COVERAGE IS
NOT XPCTD TO BE AS MUCH AS YDA...BUT HAVING A STRAY SHWR/TSTM
DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH
AT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE OMITTED CB/TS MENTION...BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN AN AMD. IN ADDITION...KEAU LOOKS TO AGAIN
POTENTIALLY HAVE PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DROP CONDS DOWN TO IFR-OR-WORSE ATTM BUT DID INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL BY DROPPING VSBY INTO LOW-END MVFR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGHOUT THIS SET WITH NO PRECIP XPCTD.
MIDLVL CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP...LASTING THRU MID-EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING FOR OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MIDLVL CU LAT TMRW MRNG.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC OF MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS SW 5-10
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301738
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  20  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301414
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  20  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301414
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  20  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301414
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  20  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301414
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  20  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KDLH 301141 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POPUP ACORSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301141 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POPUP ACORSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






000
FXUS63 KMPX 301131
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING
LOCALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH.

THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW
5 MPH...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PERSISTENCE FORECASTING FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY ACCURATE RESULTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE JAMES BAY LOW AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PROVIDE REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND IN THE SENSE THAT THE FLOW WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED MAINLY DUE
TO THE POLEWARD REGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EAST/WEST ORIENTED AS IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS. THE 30.00 GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CONSIDERABLY WELL FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ECMWF DRIVES THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH...AND HAS HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A STRONGER NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD FOCUS THE CONVECTION MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI AND HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AT THIS TIME DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER
THE OTHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WETTER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL
GENERALLY HOOVER AROUND 1.5IN...AND THE FREEZING LEVEL SITS AT
AROUND 11KFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/FLOODING AND KEEP MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3IN RANGE
VS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND
FIELDS H700-500 LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. HODOGRAPHS TO SHOW
GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WONT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE ONLY CONCERNS TODAY ARE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS OVER WEST
CENTRAL WI...BUT THAT WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TODAY WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER DAY WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TS POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
MENTION AT KEAU. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR AGAIN THIS EVE AND WINDS
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIP TODAY.

KMSP...
FOG JUST EAST OF MSP BURNS OFF BY 14Z...THEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS. COULD SEE
THE DECK GO BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT AT SCATTERED SINCE
THAT SHOULD PREVAIL AND THE LEVEL WILL BE VFR. SKIES CLEAR AFTER
00Z AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS






000
FXUS63 KMPX 301131
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING
LOCALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH.

THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW
5 MPH...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PERSISTENCE FORECASTING FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY ACCURATE RESULTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE JAMES BAY LOW AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PROVIDE REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND IN THE SENSE THAT THE FLOW WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED MAINLY DUE
TO THE POLEWARD REGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EAST/WEST ORIENTED AS IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS. THE 30.00 GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CONSIDERABLY WELL FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ECMWF DRIVES THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH...AND HAS HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A STRONGER NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD FOCUS THE CONVECTION MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI AND HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AT THIS TIME DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER
THE OTHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WETTER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL
GENERALLY HOOVER AROUND 1.5IN...AND THE FREEZING LEVEL SITS AT
AROUND 11KFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/FLOODING AND KEEP MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3IN RANGE
VS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND
FIELDS H700-500 LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. HODOGRAPHS TO SHOW
GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WONT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE ONLY CONCERNS TODAY ARE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS OVER WEST
CENTRAL WI...BUT THAT WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TODAY WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER DAY WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TS POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
MENTION AT KEAU. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR AGAIN THIS EVE AND WINDS
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIP TODAY.

KMSP...
FOG JUST EAST OF MSP BURNS OFF BY 14Z...THEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS. COULD SEE
THE DECK GO BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT AT SCATTERED SINCE
THAT SHOULD PREVAIL AND THE LEVEL WILL BE VFR. SKIES CLEAR AFTER
00Z AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS







000
FXUS63 KMPX 300930
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING
LOCALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH.

THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW
5 MPH...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PERSISTENCE FORECASTING FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY ACCURATE RESULTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE JAMES BAY LOW AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PROVIDE REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND IN THE SENSE THAT THE FLOW WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED MAINLY DUE
TO THE POLEWARD REGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EAST/WEST ORIENTED AS IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS. THE 30.00 GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CONSIDERABLY WELL FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ECMWF DRIVES THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH...AND HAS HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A STRONGER NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD FOCUS THE CONVECTION MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI AND HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AT THIS TIME DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER
THE OTHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WETTER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL
GENERALLY HOOVER AROUND 1.5IN...AND THE FREEZING LEVEL SITS AT
AROUND 11KFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/FLOODING AND KEEP MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3IN RANGE
VS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND
FIELDS H700-500 LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. HODOGRAPHS TO SHOW
GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WONT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PESKY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO
THAT BY 09Z OR SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KEAU.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE SWINGING AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. MORE SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TUESDAY.

KMSP...TAIL END OF NARROW LOBE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...
NORTH OF KMSP... SHOULD SLIDE BY THE EAST OF KMSP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO BROKEN AT KMSP BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WIND AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KMPX 300930
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING
LOCALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH.

THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW
5 MPH...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PERSISTENCE FORECASTING FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY ACCURATE RESULTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE JAMES BAY LOW AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PROVIDE REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND IN THE SENSE THAT THE FLOW WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED MAINLY DUE
TO THE POLEWARD REGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EAST/WEST ORIENTED AS IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS. THE 30.00 GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CONSIDERABLY WELL FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ECMWF DRIVES THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH...AND HAS HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A STRONGER NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD FOCUS THE CONVECTION MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI AND HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

AT THIS TIME DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER
THE OTHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WETTER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL
GENERALLY HOOVER AROUND 1.5IN...AND THE FREEZING LEVEL SITS AT
AROUND 11KFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/FLOODING AND KEEP MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3IN RANGE
VS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND
FIELDS H700-500 LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. HODOGRAPHS TO SHOW
GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WONT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PESKY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO
THAT BY 09Z OR SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KEAU.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE SWINGING AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. MORE SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TUESDAY.

KMSP...TAIL END OF NARROW LOBE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...
NORTH OF KMSP... SHOULD SLIDE BY THE EAST OF KMSP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO BROKEN AT KMSP BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WIND AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 300837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 300837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300458
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  60  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  60  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300458
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  60  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  60  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KMPX 300417
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PESKY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO
THAT BY 09Z OR SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KEAU.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE SWINGING AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. MORE SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TUESDAY.

KMSP...TAIL END OF NARROW LOBE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...
NORTH OF KMSP... SHOULD SLIDE BY THE EAST OF KMSP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO BROKEN AT KMSP BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WIND AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 300417
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PESKY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO
THAT BY 09Z OR SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KEAU.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE SWINGING AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. MORE SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TUESDAY.

KMSP...TAIL END OF NARROW LOBE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...
NORTH OF KMSP... SHOULD SLIDE BY THE EAST OF KMSP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO BROKEN AT KMSP BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WIND AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 300417
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PESKY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO
THAT BY 09Z OR SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KEAU.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE SWINGING AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. MORE SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TUESDAY.

KMSP...TAIL END OF NARROW LOBE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...
NORTH OF KMSP... SHOULD SLIDE BY THE EAST OF KMSP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO BROKEN AT KMSP BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WIND AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 300417
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PESKY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO
THAT BY 09Z OR SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KEAU.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE SWINGING AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. MORE SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TUESDAY.

KMSP...TAIL END OF NARROW LOBE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...
NORTH OF KMSP... SHOULD SLIDE BY THE EAST OF KMSP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO BROKEN AT KMSP BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WIND AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 292359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THERE
WILL BE THE TYPICAL CONDITIONS POST SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN MORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TODAY.

KMSP...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS HAVE GRAZED KMSP AND CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH NW WIND DROPPING TO 3-5 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 292359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THERE
WILL BE THE TYPICAL CONDITIONS POST SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN MORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TODAY.

KMSP...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS HAVE GRAZED KMSP AND CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH NW WIND DROPPING TO 3-5 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 292359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THERE
WILL BE THE TYPICAL CONDITIONS POST SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN MORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TODAY.

KMSP...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS HAVE GRAZED KMSP AND CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH NW WIND DROPPING TO 3-5 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KMPX 292359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SFC
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MI WESTWARD TO NEAR KORD AND THE QUAD CITIES IA.
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SPECIFICALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN SOLID
NW FLOW. THROUGH THIS IS A DRIER FLOW...AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEG F...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN WI AND THESE ARE DRIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE LINGERING SFC
FRONT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE AXES ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE AXES WILL SWING
THRU WI INTO NORTHERN IL THRU THIS EVE...AND THEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...BUT THE
POINT IS THAT WITH ACTIVITY JUST NOW DEVELOPING...IT CANNOT BE
IGNORED SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. STABLE HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GUIDE THE WEATHER TONIGHT ON THRU TOMORROW...WITH
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIP AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
AXES RIDING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THERE WILL
BE SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER TIME WITH
EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING AND WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING INTO OUR AREA
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR AREA... WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY EAST FOR THINGS TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WE/LL THEN SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND HELP
INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE/LL THEN SEE HEIGHT START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WORK IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER PCPN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FROM WNW-
ESE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL SETUP... AND THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISC SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THERE
WILL BE THE TYPICAL CONDITIONS POST SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN MORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING TOMORROW
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 15 KTS WEDNESDAY BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
THAN THE GUSTS OF TODAY.

KMSP...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS HAVE GRAZED KMSP AND CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH NW WIND DROPPING TO 3-5 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KDLH 292337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KINL...KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY
SHOUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE JUST SHOWERS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST.
WHERE THERE ARE STORMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR FOR
VISBY...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTER 10Z TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISBY MAY AFFECT
THE SAME TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO REFINE FOG POTENTIAL WITH 06Z
ISSUANCE. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT
VCTS INTO TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 292337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KINL...KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY
SHOUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE JUST SHOWERS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST.
WHERE THERE ARE STORMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR FOR
VISBY...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTER 10Z TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISBY MAY AFFECT
THE SAME TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO REFINE FOG POTENTIAL WITH 06Z
ISSUANCE. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT
VCTS INTO TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 292337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KINL...KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY
SHOUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE JUST SHOWERS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST.
WHERE THERE ARE STORMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR FOR
VISBY...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTER 10Z TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISBY MAY AFFECT
THE SAME TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO REFINE FOG POTENTIAL WITH 06Z
ISSUANCE. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT
VCTS INTO TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 292337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KINL...KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY
SHOUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE JUST SHOWERS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST.
WHERE THERE ARE STORMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR FOR
VISBY...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTER 10Z TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISBY MAY AFFECT
THE SAME TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO REFINE FOG POTENTIAL WITH 06Z
ISSUANCE. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT
VCTS INTO TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









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