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000
FXUS63 KDLH 061147
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO SPREAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH TODAY/THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
TO NORTHERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL QUITE MILD IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING WITH 08Z VALUES OF 66F AT KXVG/KPWC AND 70F AT KGPZ. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING AND A LARGE AREA OF 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
18C TO 20C. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT AND HAVE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. LAKESIDE AREAS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA WILL START OFF
COOLER...BUT THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST THERE AS WELL. WITH THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO...IT MAKES SENSE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE DRY TODAY...AND
THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...WE DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
FROM AROUND 40F ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE MID FORTIES
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE COOL NW
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
SATURDAY...AND A LOBE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY MIGHT HELP TO DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE
IN THE 60S.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIFT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
CHANCES ARE LOW THOUGH SINCE THE GFS HAS SHOWERS MUCH FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NW US INTO NORTH DAKOTA OR NW MINNESOTA...BRINGING COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS...TO THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND NE MINNESOTA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  44  64  39 /  30  40  10   0
INL  83  40  64  33 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  87  46  68  40 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  85  46  67  35 /  20  40   0   0
ASX  83  45  64  36 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 061147
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO SPREAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH TODAY/THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
TO NORTHERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL QUITE MILD IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING WITH 08Z VALUES OF 66F AT KXVG/KPWC AND 70F AT KGPZ. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING AND A LARGE AREA OF 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
18C TO 20C. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT AND HAVE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. LAKESIDE AREAS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA WILL START OFF
COOLER...BUT THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST THERE AS WELL. WITH THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO...IT MAKES SENSE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE DRY TODAY...AND
THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...WE DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
FROM AROUND 40F ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE MID FORTIES
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE COOL NW
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
SATURDAY...AND A LOBE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY MIGHT HELP TO DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE
IN THE 60S.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIFT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
CHANCES ARE LOW THOUGH SINCE THE GFS HAS SHOWERS MUCH FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NW US INTO NORTH DAKOTA OR NW MINNESOTA...BRINGING COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS...TO THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND NE MINNESOTA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  44  64  39 /  30  40  10   0
INL  83  40  64  33 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  87  46  68  40 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  85  46  67  35 /  20  40   0   0
ASX  83  45  64  36 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 060955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE WORKS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY
SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR CENTRAL MN AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATER INTO THE
NIGHT AND THE FARTHER SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...THE HIGHER THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HI-RES CAMS INDICATE SCATTERED PRECIP
BREAKING OUT AFTER 21Z IN WEST CENTRAL MN...AND AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE HI- RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE A SECONDARY MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...BUT THE NAM- NEST IS MUCH MORE TAME IN ITS EXPECTATIONS.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO TAME IN COMPARISON AND SHOVES ANY PRECIP
CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER BY 12Z TOMORROW. HENCE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT AND INITIATION IS LOW.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP ACTIVITY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH A CDFNT
HAVING DROPPED S THRU MN/WI...BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS
ALSO S OF BOTH STATES. SFC HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW INTO THE REGION
WHILE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE NW FLOW WILL BE ON THE ERN SIDE
OF A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
SERN GULF COAST THAT WILL SHIFT EWD THRU THE WEEKEND AND COLLAPSE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...THE SFC HIGH PRES
WILL ALSO DRIFT OFF TO THE SE AND ALLOW A DRY CDFNT TO SLIDE SWD
THRU THE AREA SUN...BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO
REINFORCING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 70 DEGREES SAT AND SUN WHILE LOWS REMAIN AROUND 50
DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES FROM
NW CANADA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL THEN MERGE AND GENERALLY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. ATTM...CHANCES LOOK BEST
FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES GOING THRU MIDWEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW BUT NON-ZERO...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND COVERAGE BASED ON DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE. SO..CONTINUED PROB30 MENTION AT A FEW SITES...WITH AREAS
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES LIKELY TO HAVE THE FRONT GO THROUGH
BEFORE ANY PRECIP CAN GET GOING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WANT TO
BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SOLD ON THIS RIGHT NOW SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF AND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO TRY AND
NAIL DOWN.

KMSP...VERY TOUGH TO SAY IF MSP WILL GET PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HIT OR MISS AND COULD HAPPEN
AFTER THE FRONT IS THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN
TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.
TODAY IS A DECENT SETUP FOR TEMPS AND WINDS EXCEEDING OUR FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING
THAN THE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES CAN FORESEE. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE
FUELS FOR WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL MN AND TO THE NORTH REMAIN DORMANT
AND DRY AT THIS TIME. HENCE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THE FUELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
ALONG IN TERMS OF GREEN UP...MAKING THEM LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL EXIST IN THESE
AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND STRONG WINDS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>053-055>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE WORKS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY
SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR CENTRAL MN AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATER INTO THE
NIGHT AND THE FARTHER SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...THE HIGHER THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HI-RES CAMS INDICATE SCATTERED PRECIP
BREAKING OUT AFTER 21Z IN WEST CENTRAL MN...AND AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE HI- RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE A SECONDARY MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...BUT THE NAM- NEST IS MUCH MORE TAME IN ITS EXPECTATIONS.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO TAME IN COMPARISON AND SHOVES ANY PRECIP
CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER BY 12Z TOMORROW. HENCE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT AND INITIATION IS LOW.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP ACTIVITY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH A CDFNT
HAVING DROPPED S THRU MN/WI...BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS
ALSO S OF BOTH STATES. SFC HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW INTO THE REGION
WHILE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE NW FLOW WILL BE ON THE ERN SIDE
OF A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
SERN GULF COAST THAT WILL SHIFT EWD THRU THE WEEKEND AND COLLAPSE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...THE SFC HIGH PRES
WILL ALSO DRIFT OFF TO THE SE AND ALLOW A DRY CDFNT TO SLIDE SWD
THRU THE AREA SUN...BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO
REINFORCING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 70 DEGREES SAT AND SUN WHILE LOWS REMAIN AROUND 50
DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES FROM
NW CANADA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL THEN MERGE AND GENERALLY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. ATTM...CHANCES LOOK BEST
FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES GOING THRU MIDWEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW BUT NON-ZERO...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND COVERAGE BASED ON DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE. SO..CONTINUED PROB30 MENTION AT A FEW SITES...WITH AREAS
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES LIKELY TO HAVE THE FRONT GO THROUGH
BEFORE ANY PRECIP CAN GET GOING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WANT TO
BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SOLD ON THIS RIGHT NOW SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF AND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO TRY AND
NAIL DOWN.

KMSP...VERY TOUGH TO SAY IF MSP WILL GET PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HIT OR MISS AND COULD HAPPEN
AFTER THE FRONT IS THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN
TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.
TODAY IS A DECENT SETUP FOR TEMPS AND WINDS EXCEEDING OUR FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING
THAN THE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES CAN FORESEE. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE
FUELS FOR WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL MN AND TO THE NORTH REMAIN DORMANT
AND DRY AT THIS TIME. HENCE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THE FUELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
ALONG IN TERMS OF GREEN UP...MAKING THEM LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL EXIST IN THESE
AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND STRONG WINDS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>053-055>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060921
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE WORKS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY
SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM THROUGH 7 PM FOR CENTRAL MN AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATER INTO THE
NIGHT AND THE FARTHER SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...THE HIGHER THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HI-RES CAMS INDICATE SCATTERED PRECIP
BREAKING OUT AFTER 21Z IN WEST CENTRAL MN...AND AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE HI- RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE A SECONDARY MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...BUT THE NAM- NEST IS MUCH MORE TAME IN ITS EXPECTATIONS.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO TAME IN COMPARISON AND SHOVES ANY PRECIP
CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER BY 12Z TOMORROW. HENCE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT AND INITIATION IS LOW.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP ACTIVITY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH A CDFNT
HAVING DROPPED S THRU MN/WI...BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS
ALSO S OF BOTH STATES. SFC HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW INTO THE REGION
WHILE NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE NW FLOW WILL BE ON THE ERN SIDE
OF A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
SERN GULF COAST THAT WILL SHIFT EWD THRU THE WEEKEND AND COLLAPSE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...THE SFC HIGH PRES
WILL ALSO DRIFT OFF TO THE SE AND ALLOW A DRY CDFNT TO SLIDE SWD
THRU THE AREA SUN...BRINGING AN INCRS IN CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO
REINFORCING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 70 DEGREES SAT AND SUN WHILE LOWS REMAIN AROUND 50
DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES FROM
NW CANADA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL THEN MERGE AND GENERALLY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. ATTM...CHANCES LOOK BEST
FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES GOING THRU MIDWEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW BUT NON-ZERO...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE FROPA EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...BUT COULD BE RELATIVELY HIT OR MISS. INDICATED PROB30 AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN
TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.
TODAY IS A DECENT SETUP FOR TEMPS AND WINDS EXCEEDING OUR FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING
THAN THE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES CAN FORESEE. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE
FUELS FOR WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL MN AND TO THE NORTH REMAIN DORMANT
AND DRY AT THIS TIME. HENCE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THE FUELS ARE MUCH FARTHER
ALONG IN TERMS OF GREEN UP...MAKING THEM LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL EXIST IN THESE
AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND STRONG WINDS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>053-055>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...SPD




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060838
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO SPREAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH TODAY/THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
TO NORTHERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL QUITE MILD IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING WITH 08Z VALUES OF 66F AT KXVG/KPWC AND 70F AT KGPZ. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING AND A LARGE AREA OF 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
18C TO 20C. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT AND HAVE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. LAKESIDE AREAS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA WILL START OFF
COOLER...BUT THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST THERE AS WELL. WITH THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO...IT MAKES SENSE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE DRY TODAY...AND
THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...WE DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
FROM AROUND 40F ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE MID FORTIES
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE COOL NW
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
SATURDAY...AND A LOBE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY MIGHT HELP TO DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE
IN THE 60S.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIFT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
CHANCES ARE LOW THOUGH SINCE THE GFS HAS SHOWERS MUCH FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NW US INTO NORTH DAKOTA OR NW MINNESOTA...BRINGING COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS...TO THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A MENTION OF VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17Z TO NEAR SUNSET AND THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LLWS IS EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE MID MORNING WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS
DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  44  64  39 /  30  40  10   0
INL  83  40  64  33 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  87  46  68  40 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  85  46  67  35 /  20  40   0   0
ASX  83  45  64  36 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF/GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060619
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE FROPA EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...BUT COULD BE RELATIVELY HIT OR MISS. INDICATED PROB30 AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KMPX 060619
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE FROPA EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...BUT COULD BE RELATIVELY HIT OR MISS. INDICATED PROB30 AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060530
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COUPLE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN ST. LOUIS COUNTY NEAR ORB
TO COOK AND ARE DRIFTING OVER THE VIRGINIA AREA AT 1010PM. THIS IS
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AN EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAX. UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NW WI ARE DISSIPATING AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
NW WI. REMOVED THE POPS FROM TONIGHT FOR NE MN WITH NO FORCING
MECHANISM NEARBY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLING AND INVERSION IS SETTING UP WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES ANY
MENTION OF RAIN. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A MENTION OF VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17Z TO NEAR SUNSET AND THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LLWS IS EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE MID MORNING WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  10  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /  10  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  10  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /  10  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF/GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COUPLE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN ST. LOUIS COUNTY NEAR ORB
TO COOK AND ARE DRIFTING OVER THE VIRGINIA AREA AT 1010PM. THIS IS
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AN EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAX. UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NW WI ARE DISSIPATING AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
NW WI. REMOVED THE POPS FROM TONIGHT FOR NE MN WITH NO FORCING
MECHANISM NEARBY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLING AND INVERSION IS SETTING UP WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES ANY
MENTION OF RAIN. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOME LLWS AFTER SUNSET AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  10  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /  10  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  10  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /  10  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060029
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NW WI ARE DISSIPATING AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
NW WI. REMOVED THE POPS FROM TONIGHT FOR NE MN WITH NO FORCING
MECHANISM NEARBY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLING AND INVERSION IS SETTING UP WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES ANY
MENTION OF RAIN. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOME LLWS AFTER SUNSET AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
THE MID MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  10  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  10  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /  10  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060029
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NW WI ARE DISSIPATING AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
NW WI. REMOVED THE POPS FROM TONIGHT FOR NE MN WITH NO FORCING
MECHANISM NEARBY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLING AND INVERSION IS SETTING UP WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES ANY
MENTION OF RAIN. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOME LLWS AFTER SUNSET AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
THE MID MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  10  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  10  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /  10  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052330
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...A COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL THE RUSH TOMORROW EVENING. A
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AND SWITCH THE WINDS FROM
SOUTHWEST...TO WEST...TO NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052330
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...A COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL THE RUSH TOMORROW EVENING. A
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AND SWITCH THE WINDS FROM
SOUTHWEST...TO WEST...TO NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 052326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOME LLWS AFTER SUNSET AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  20  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  20  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /   0  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 052326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOME LLWS AFTER SUNSET AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  20  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  20  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /   0  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 052201
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
501 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS WEAKENING TOWARDS
THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  20  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  20  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /   0  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 052201
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
501 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS WEAKENING TOWARDS
THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  20  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  20  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /   0  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A FEW VFR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG I-35 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KMSP SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL 19Z.
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM KRNH AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 015-020 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 052045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A FEW VFR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG I-35 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KMSP SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL 19Z.
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM KRNH AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 015-020 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 051735
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...

CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS WEAKENING TOWARDS
THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  51  81  45 /  20   0  20  30
INL  83  52  80  39 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  81  53  85  47 /  20   0  20  20
HYR  71  50  81  47 /  20   0  10  40
ASX  70  49  82  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051725
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT
LINGERS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ATOP MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT
SE WHILE THE FRONT TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE.
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE
RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN THE FLOW WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL
THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS MRNG
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING PRECIP
ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX CWFA LATE
THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A SENSIBLE WX
POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIP
SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN
FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE FROST
ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF
THE WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE
CASE BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO
THE NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS
THROUGH DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A FEW VFR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG I-35 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KMSP SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL 19Z.
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM KRNH AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 015-020 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051725
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT
LINGERS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ATOP MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT
SE WHILE THE FRONT TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE.
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE
RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN THE FLOW WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL
THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS MRNG
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING PRECIP
ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX CWFA LATE
THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A SENSIBLE WX
POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIP
SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN
FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE FROST
ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF
THE WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE
CASE BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO
THE NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS
THROUGH DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A FEW VFR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG I-35 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KMSP SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL 19Z.
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM KRNH AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 015-020 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051239
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT
LINGERS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ATOP MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT
SE WHILE THE FRONT TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE.
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE
RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN THE FLOW WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL
THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS MRNG
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING PRECIP
ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX CWFA LATE
THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A SENSIBLE WX
POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIP
SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN
FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE FROST
ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF
THE WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE
CASE BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO
THE NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS
THROUGH DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT ISOLD -SHRA WILL
DRIFT SWD ACRS WRN WI THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING KRNH AND
POSSIBLY KEAU. THE MN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. SCT-BKN UPR LVL
DECKS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN...THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GO SKC
TONIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS INCRG TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TNGT. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT BUFKIT PROFILES ON SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
STRONG WSW WINDS IN AROUND 35 KT WITHIN 1-2 KFT OFF THE SFC CLOSE
TO DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION
ATTM...PLUS DIRECTIONAL DIFFERENCE IS 30 DEGREES OR LESS...SO IT
MAY BE MORE A CASE OF LLVL TURBULENCE RATHER THAN ACTUAL SHEAR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ASIDE FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF LLWS TMRW MORNING...NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 051239
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT
LINGERS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ATOP MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT
SE WHILE THE FRONT TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE.
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE
RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN THE FLOW WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL
THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS MRNG
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING PRECIP
ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX CWFA LATE
THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A SENSIBLE WX
POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIP
SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN
FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE FROST
ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF
THE WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE
CASE BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO
THE NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS
THROUGH DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT ISOLD -SHRA WILL
DRIFT SWD ACRS WRN WI THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING KRNH AND
POSSIBLY KEAU. THE MN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. SCT-BKN UPR LVL
DECKS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN...THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GO SKC
TONIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS INCRG TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TNGT. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT BUFKIT PROFILES ON SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
STRONG WSW WINDS IN AROUND 35 KT WITHIN 1-2 KFT OFF THE SFC CLOSE
TO DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION
ATTM...PLUS DIRECTIONAL DIFFERENCE IS 30 DEGREES OR LESS...SO IT
MAY BE MORE A CASE OF LLVL TURBULENCE RATHER THAN ACTUAL SHEAR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ASIDE FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF LLWS TMRW MORNING...NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 051101
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...

CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF -SHRA AND CEILINGS AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING...BUT
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVLOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  51  81  45 /  20   0  20  30
INL  83  52  80  39 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  81  53  85  47 /  10   0  20  20
HYR  71  50  81  47 /  20   0  10  40
ASX  70  49  82  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 051101
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...

CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF -SHRA AND CEILINGS AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING...BUT
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVLOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  51  81  45 /  20   0  20  30
INL  83  52  80  39 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  81  53  85  47 /  10   0  20  20
HYR  71  50  81  47 /  20   0  10  40
ASX  70  49  82  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 050854
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...

CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS OF 850HPA FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX HAS DROPPED ACROSS MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE TO PRODUCE
THUNDER. LIGHTNING HAS ACCOMPANIED THE FAST MOVING VORT MAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDER TO THE MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NOON HOUR...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING RH
VALUES. THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE TEENS...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH
LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
25MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ARE INDICATING MUCAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OR
MORE. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW
FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY
AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A STACKED LOW MIGHT LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK...STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
DAYS OF COOL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KBRD. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INDEED POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  51  81  45 /  20   0  20  30
INL  82  52  80  39 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  81  53  85  47 /  10   0  20  20
HYR  71  50  81  47 /  20   0  10  40
ASX  70  49  82  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP/GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050833
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT LINGERS N OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW PREVAILS ATOP
MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THRU THE
REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SE WHILE THE FRONT
TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE. HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN
RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN
THE FLOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS.
THIS WAVE WILL THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING PRECIP ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA LATE THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A
SENSIBLE WX POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE
MEASURABLE PRECIP SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL
AID IN FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE
FROST ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO UPPER
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE CASE
BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS THROUGH
DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE
AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050833
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT LINGERS N OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW PREVAILS ATOP
MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THRU THE
REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SE WHILE THE FRONT
TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE. HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN
RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN
THE FLOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS.
THIS WAVE WILL THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING PRECIP ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA LATE THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A
SENSIBLE WX POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE
MEASURABLE PRECIP SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL
AID IN FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE
FROST ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO UPPER
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE CASE
BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS THROUGH
DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE
AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 050520
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI
OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO NE MN LATE TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND FROM CRANE LAKE TO THE TWIN PORTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY SUNRISE AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILKY LOOKING SKY THURSDAY AND
MAY ALSO LIMIT THE SPRINKLES.

THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL WILL
ENTER THE NWRN PART OF MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE AND ENTER NRN WI EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A LITTLE PUNCH TO IT...WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN...THEN ONGOING
INTO WI. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. 0-3 KN MUCAPE IS FORECAST FROM 1200-2400 J/KG. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 40 KTS.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FROM
FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH 8H TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FALLING TO ABOUT 5C ON SATURDAY...THEN EVEN COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH
0 TO -1C IN NORTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WI.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY THE NORTHLAND WILL BE EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KBRD. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INDEED POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  73  51  81 /  10  20   0  20
INL  34  82  52  80 /  20  20   0  30
BRD  39  81  55  85 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  28  71  50  82 /  10  20   0  10
ASX  30  70  48  80 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP/GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.

THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.

COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE
AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 050339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.

THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.

COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE
AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 042345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI
OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO NE MN LATE TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND FROM CRANE LAKE TO THE TWIN PORTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY SUNRISE AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILKY LOOKING SKY THURSDAY AND
MAY ALSO LIMIT THE SPRINKLES.

THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL WILL
ENTER THE NWRN PART OF MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE AND ENTER NRN WI EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A LITTLE PUNCH TO IT...WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN...THEN ONGOING
INTO WI. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. 0-3 KN MUCAPE IS FORECAST FROM 1200-2400 J/KG. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 40 KTS.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FROM
FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH 8H TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FALLING TO ABOUT 5C ON SATURDAY...THEN EVEN COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH
0 TO -1C IN NORTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WI.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY THE NORTHLAND WILL BE EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL
BRING SOME 5000 FOOT CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...BUT THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION CONSIDERABLY. AS A RESULT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  73  51  81 /  10  10   0  20
INL  34  82  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  39  81  55  85 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  28  71  50  82 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  30  70  48  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042343
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.

THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.

COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND COULD EVEN GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MN/WI
BORDER AND IN WESTERN WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN
MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN
THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 042049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI
OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO NE MN LATE TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND FROM CRANE LAKE TO THE TWIN PORTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY SUNRISE AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILKY LOOKING SKY THURSDAY AND
MAY ALSO LIMIT THE SPRINKLES.

THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL WILL
ENTER THE NWRN PART OF MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE AND ENTER NRN WI EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A LITTLE PUNCH TO IT...WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN...THEN ONGOING
INTO WI. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. 0-3 KN MUCAPE IS FORECAST FROM 1200-2400 J/KG. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 40 KTS.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FROM
FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH 8H TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FALLING TO ABOUT 5C ON SATURDAY...THEN EVEN COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH
0 TO -1C IN NORTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WI.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY THE NORTHLAND WILL BE EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  73  51  81 /  10  10   0  20
INL  34  82  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  39  81  55  85 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  28  71  50  82 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  30  70  48  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 042049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI
OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO NE MN LATE TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND FROM CRANE LAKE TO THE TWIN PORTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY SUNRISE AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILKY LOOKING SKY THURSDAY AND
MAY ALSO LIMIT THE SPRINKLES.

THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL WILL
ENTER THE NWRN PART OF MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE AND ENTER NRN WI EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A LITTLE PUNCH TO IT...WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN...THEN ONGOING
INTO WI. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. 0-3 KN MUCAPE IS FORECAST FROM 1200-2400 J/KG. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 40 KTS.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FROM
FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH 8H TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FALLING TO ABOUT 5C ON SATURDAY...THEN EVEN COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH
0 TO -1C IN NORTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WI.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY THE NORTHLAND WILL BE EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  73  51  81 /  10  10   0  20
INL  34  82  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  39  81  55  85 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  28  71  50  82 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  30  70  48  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 042022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.

THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.

COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 22Z ALONG
WITH A FEW-SCT050-060. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT SSW ON THURSDAY. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME IS AT KEAU WHERE A
PROB30 GROUPS WAS USED. INDICATED VCSH AT KRNH AND KMSP.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 23Z-24Z PERIOD. SMALL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041736 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD HAVE DISSIPATED AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS IN NW WI. HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SOME LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 2K FEET...ARE MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AT 822 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY ON THE MN/WI BORDER. HAVE ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MN. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  74  51 /   0  20  20   0
INL  62  36  80  52 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  64  38  80  55 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  58  33  71  50 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  53  32  72  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041736 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD HAVE DISSIPATED AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS IN NW WI. HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SOME LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 2K FEET...ARE MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AT 822 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY ON THE MN/WI BORDER. HAVE ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MN. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  74  51 /   0  20  20   0
INL  62  36  80  52 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  64  38  80  55 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  58  33  71  50 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  53  32  72  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041734
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG SHOWS A CDFNT NOW
S OF MN AND MOVING THRU SRN WI...ESSENTIALLY S OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY AND ALL LATE EVENING PRECIP IN ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SHIFT WELL SE OF THE AREA AND FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT AROUND A SHARP TROF OVER
ERN NOAM WILL MAKE FOR POIGNANT CAA TDA THRU TNGT ACRS THE
AREA...AND ALSO AID IN BRINGING IN CANADIAN HIGH PRES ATOP THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. EVEN WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER...THE NOTICEABLE CAA WILL DROP MAX TEMPS TDA ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YDA...WITH HIGHS TDA ONLY HITTING THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S. ONLY A MILD BREEZE EARLY THIS MRNG WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM BOTTOMING OUT FURTHER...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
LGT/VRBL TMRW NIGHT WITH EFFICIENT DECOUPLING AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE COOL...CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG...SINCE TEMPERATURES THERE
LOOK TO DROP TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
RUN WITH A FROST ADVY FOR RUSK...CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIR COUNTIES.
GOING WWD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH NO FROST EXPECTED.
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE N DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS THU
MRNG BUT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO FAR N TO BE OF
ANY CONSEQUENCE TO THE MPX CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A
HOT ONE...AND KEPT THE 90S GOING OUT IN WESTERN MN FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT IMPRESS. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHEN IT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO
PREDICT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOUCH 90 IN WESTERN MN...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMPARE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE MAY 06 2000 WHICH BROUGHT UPPER 80S TO ST CLOUD MN. HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINT SHOULD BE LOWER IN THIS CASE...WHICH FAVORS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE...SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHICH DOES WILL IN THESE
RUN-AWAY TEMPERATURE SETUPS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL TRY TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT PASSES...
BUT THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS CLOSER TO
LAKE SUPERIOR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT THIS
DECREASES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...AND DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT TO GET
THROUGH THE CAP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW SHOULD EMERGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT IS AIDED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFT
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF 04.00 IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TIMING OF THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GETS PUSHED BACK WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 22Z ALONG
WITH A FEW-SCT050-060. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT SSW ON THURSDAY. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME IS AT KEAU WHERE A
PROB30 GROUPS WAS USED. INDICATED VCSH AT KRNH AND KMSP.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 23Z-24Z PERIOD. SMALL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041734
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG SHOWS A CDFNT NOW
S OF MN AND MOVING THRU SRN WI...ESSENTIALLY S OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY AND ALL LATE EVENING PRECIP IN ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SHIFT WELL SE OF THE AREA AND FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT AROUND A SHARP TROF OVER
ERN NOAM WILL MAKE FOR POIGNANT CAA TDA THRU TNGT ACRS THE
AREA...AND ALSO AID IN BRINGING IN CANADIAN HIGH PRES ATOP THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. EVEN WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER...THE NOTICEABLE CAA WILL DROP MAX TEMPS TDA ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YDA...WITH HIGHS TDA ONLY HITTING THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S. ONLY A MILD BREEZE EARLY THIS MRNG WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM BOTTOMING OUT FURTHER...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
LGT/VRBL TMRW NIGHT WITH EFFICIENT DECOUPLING AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE COOL...CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG...SINCE TEMPERATURES THERE
LOOK TO DROP TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
RUN WITH A FROST ADVY FOR RUSK...CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIR COUNTIES.
GOING WWD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH NO FROST EXPECTED.
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE N DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS THU
MRNG BUT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO FAR N TO BE OF
ANY CONSEQUENCE TO THE MPX CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A
HOT ONE...AND KEPT THE 90S GOING OUT IN WESTERN MN FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT IMPRESS. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHEN IT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO
PREDICT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOUCH 90 IN WESTERN MN...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMPARE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE MAY 06 2000 WHICH BROUGHT UPPER 80S TO ST CLOUD MN. HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINT SHOULD BE LOWER IN THIS CASE...WHICH FAVORS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE...SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHICH DOES WILL IN THESE
RUN-AWAY TEMPERATURE SETUPS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL TRY TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT PASSES...
BUT THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS CLOSER TO
LAKE SUPERIOR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT THIS
DECREASES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...AND DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT TO GET
THROUGH THE CAP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW SHOULD EMERGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT IS AIDED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFT
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF 04.00 IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TIMING OF THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GETS PUSHED BACK WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 22Z ALONG
WITH A FEW-SCT050-060. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT SSW ON THURSDAY. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME IS AT KEAU WHERE A
PROB30 GROUPS WAS USED. INDICATED VCSH AT KRNH AND KMSP.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 23Z-24Z PERIOD. SMALL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD HAVE DISSIPATED AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS IN NW WI. HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SOME LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 2K FEET...ARE MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AT 822 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY ON THE MN/WI BORDER. HAVE ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MN. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  74  51 /   0  20  20   0
INL  62  36  80  52 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  64  38  80  55 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  58  33  71  50 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  53  32  72  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD HAVE DISSIPATED AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS IN NW WI. HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SOME LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 2K FEET...ARE MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AT 822 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY ON THE MN/WI BORDER. HAVE ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MN. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  74  51 /   0  20  20   0
INL  62  36  80  52 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  64  38  80  55 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  58  33  71  50 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  53  32  72  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SOME LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 2K FEET...ARE MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AT 822 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY ON THE MN/WI BORDER. HAVE ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MN. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  74  51 /   0  20  20   0
INL  62  36  80  52 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  64  38  80  55 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  58  33  71  50 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  53  32  72  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




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