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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEARING
IS MARCHING EASTWARD. ALL BUT EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN WAS CLEAR
AND EXPECT ALL OF MN TO BE CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR LOWER 70S THERE
TODAY...PERHAPS MID 70S LOCALLY. LIMITED MIXING AND COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S IN EASTERN
MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING MOVING WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS
WEST OF A STC TO MSP TO MKT LINE ARE CLEAR. EXPECT ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL MN TO BE CLEAR BY 20Z. THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA IS IN NOW IN WESTERN WI...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. SOME IMPACT TO WESTERN WI TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z EXCEPT EAU WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 22Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH FOG BECOMING A
CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...SO
ADDED FOG FOR THE WESTERN WI TAF SITES. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AT
AXN/STC. MSP/RWF SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS LIFT FRIDAY MORNING OVER WRN WI WE
WILL SEE VFR THROUGH AT LAST SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS. WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT T PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME A FEW CLOUDS AT THE 12-15K LEVEL.

KMSP...CIGS ARE DONE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKC WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE FIELD IN TERMS OF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE SKC FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DRL/JPC






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000
FXUS63 KDLH 231717
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED FOR FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND BACKING OFF OF THE PRECIP
ENDING IN NW WI. THE CLEARING IN THE WEST IS ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WI DUE TO PRESENT TRENDS. ALSO...DELAYED CLEARING BY AN HOUR BASED
ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR CIGS/VSBY AT HYR UNTIL 22Z THEN VFR. BRING THE BR AND
MVFR/ISOLD IFR VSBYS TO HYR FROM 03Z TO 15Z. IFR CIG AT DLH UNTIL
20Z THEN VFR. BROUGHT SOME BR TO DLH WITH MVFR VSBY FROM 06Z TO
14Z. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231555
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1055 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED FOR FOG ALONG THE NORTHSHORE AND BACKING OFF OF THE PRECIP
ENDING IN NW WI. THE CLEARING IN THE WEST IS ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WI DUE TO PRESENT TRENDS. ALSO...DELAYED CLEARING BY AN HOUR BASED
ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MINNESOTA ZONES THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231415
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WI DUE TO PRESENT TRENDS. ALSO...DELAYED CLEARING BY AN HOUR BASED
ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MINNESOTA ZONES THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231159
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
659 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MINNESOTA ZONES THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 231106
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WELL ADVERTISED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY 3AM HAD REACHED
EASTERN MN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING IN TO WESTERN MN. SKIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING
ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE CLEARING LINE REACHING THE TWIN
CITIES AROUND SUN RISE. AS FAR AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS
CONCERNED...FORECAST HAS BEEN GOOD SO JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
COVERAGE...TIMING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WILL DEAL WITH THIS EASTBOUND BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND STILL EXPECT IT TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE...THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS THERE. IN OUR
FA...THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...THANKS TO THE 7-10 MPH
WIND SUSTAINING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THE VISIBILITY FROM
CRASHING...WHICH IT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD WITH THIS SETUP IF NOT
FOR THE WIND. UPDATED FORECAST HAS THE WIND DROPPING A LITTLE JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE BE PREPARED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL MN IN CASE THE WIND TEMPORARILY FALLS BELOW 5 MPH OR SO.

THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGING AND HENCE...ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH IN AND MIX DOWN. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR 70S THERE TODAY. LIMITED
MIXING AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE 60S IN EASTERN MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA NOW...WITH
MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT STILL TO IMPACT WESTERN WI. TO
THE WEST...FOG HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE AT
LEAST SOME WIND. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT WHEN SKIES CLEAR GIVEN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AFTER THE
RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE THE FOG MIX OUT BY
14-15Z...AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. FOG BECOMES A CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE
LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS...SO OFFERED AN INDICATION THERE MAY BE FOG
FOR MOST TAF SITES. LATER SHIFTS WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON FOG
POTENTIAL AND WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE NEXT
ISSUANCE TO COME OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

KMSP...EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 17Z WITH SOME
BREAK UP BEGINNING AT 15Z AS AREA FOG BEGINS TO MIX OUT. DID NOT
INTRODUCE FOG AT MSP FOR TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY
LATER SHIFTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...FOG PSBL AM. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD







000
FXUS63 KMPX 230902
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WELL ADVERTISED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY 3AM HAD REACHED
EASTERN MN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING IN TO WESTERN MN. SKIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING
ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE CLEARING LINE REACHING THE TWIN
CITIES AROUND SUN RISE. AS FAR AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS
CONCERNED...FORECAST HAS BEEN GOOD SO JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
COVERAGE...TIMING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WILL DEAL WITH THIS EASTBOUND BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND STILL EXPECT IT TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE...THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS THERE. IN OUR
FA...THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...THANKS TO THE 7-10 MPH
WIND SUSTAINING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THE VISIBILITY FROM
CRASHING...WHICH IT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD WITH THIS SETUP IF NOT
FOR THE WIND. UPDATED FORECAST HAS THE WIND DROPPING A LITTLE JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE BE PREPARED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL MN IN CASE THE WIND TEMPORARILY FALLS BELOW 5 MPH OR SO.

THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGING AND HENCE...ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH IN AND MIX DOWN. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR 70S THERE TODAY. LIMITED
MIXING AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE 60S IN EASTERN MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL SPREAD INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST
SCATTER OUT. ONE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER
CEILINGS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES.
THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ACROSS ABOUT THE CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC.
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 230837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF IFR CONDITIONS AND
FOG WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  20   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD
INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST SCATTER OUT. ONE
CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER CEILINGS FOR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES. THERE ALSO REMAINS A
THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS ABOUT THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC. CEILINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KMPX 230353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD
INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST SCATTER OUT. ONE
CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER CEILINGS FOR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES. THERE ALSO REMAINS A
THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS ABOUT THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC. CEILINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS63 KDLH 230259
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES/GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THIS EVENING...ENDED UP ADDING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES AREA...AS A SMALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED FROM FAR EC MN INTO THE SW AREA OF THE
TWIN PORTS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. ONCE THE SHOWERS END IN THE WEST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA
OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  80  40  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  80  60  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 230009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF KEAU BY
14Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
THE SHOWERS. THE LONGEST DURATION FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOP AS WELL LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDINESS. THIS COULD IMPACT KSTC MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF
CURRENTLY INDICATES. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY CLEARING OCCURS. GUSTY SE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING WSW ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 230009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU THU MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST
LI/S ARE PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER
RAINFALL RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF KEAU BY
14Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
THE SHOWERS. THE LONGEST DURATION FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOP AS WELL LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDINESS. THIS COULD IMPACT KSTC MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF
CURRENTLY INDICATES. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY CLEARING OCCURS. GUSTY SE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING WSW ON THURSDAY.

KMSP...SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KDLH 222348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 222348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 222045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDEL ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THU
MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST LI/S ARE
PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER RAINFALL
RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.

KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221953
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KMPX 221902
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
202 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.

HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.

KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221537 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221537 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221158
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
658 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  47  58  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  45  60  39 /  50  60  10   0
BRD  58  46  63  40 /  50  80  10   0
HYR  55  42  56  41 /  10  80  40  10
ASX  56  43  56  42 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KMPX 221128
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.

HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TODAY AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE...BUT NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
TAFS LOOKED GOOD...MAINLY SOME EDITS WERE MADE TO THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP WHICH WAS HEAVILY BASED ON AVAILABLE HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST THROUGH THE MORING. SPED
UP THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE FOG IF THE WIND REMAINS LIGHT
ENOUGH...MAINLY OUR WEST.

KMSP...LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REMAIN WEST OF MSP THIS MORING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 220929
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.

HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 220905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  47  58  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  45  60  39 /  50  60  10   0
BRD  58  46  63  40 /  50  80  10   0
HYR  55  42  56  41 /  10  80  40  10
ASX  56  43  56  42 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 220653
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
153 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  56  44 /  10  70  40  10
INL  58  46  58  39 /  20  70  20  10
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  20  70  10  10
HYR  56  44  54  41 /  10  70  70  10
ASX  58  43  54  42 /   0  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KMPX 220353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE HOPWRF...OUR MPXWRF AND THE LATEST RUC ALL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY 09Z WITH
THE ACTIVITY WORKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES BY NOON. EVEN THE
SREF HAS SOME CHANCE PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND NOSE
OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL MN FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.

OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.

PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KMPX 220135
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE HOPWRF...OUR MPXWRF AND THE LATEST RUC ALL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY 09Z WITH
THE ACTIVITY WORKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES BY NOON. EVEN THE
SREF HAS SOME CHANCE PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND NOSE
OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL MN FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.

OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.

PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST AHEAD. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN
NEAR DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITIES POINT MORE TO THE WEST OF
KAXN AND KRWF. HENCE...ONLY CARRIED SCT015-020 FOR THESE SITES IN
THE MORNING. AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE TWO SITES MAY SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. A SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BETWEEN
KRWF AND KAXN AND SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH KSTC AND THE NORTH
TWIN CITIES METRO BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THIS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE
WITH QUITE A FEW CAMS SHOWING THIS. THEREFORE...VCSH WAS INCLUDED
FOR THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS FOR WESTERN MN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY...SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF MN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD IMPEDE THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA WITH THE SHOWERS FOR
THE MN/WI TAF SITES BEING MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE.

KMSP...VFR EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. SMALL THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH








000
FXUS63 KMPX 220001
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.

OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.

PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST AHEAD. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN
NEAR DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITIES POINT MORE TO THE WEST OF
KAXN AND KRWF. HENCE...ONLY CARRIED SCT015-020 FOR THESE SITES IN
THE MORNING. AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE TWO SITES MAY SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. A SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BETWEEN
KRWF AND KAXN AND SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH KSTC AND THE NORTH
TWIN CITIES METRO BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THIS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE
WITH QUITE A FEW CAMS SHOWING THIS. THEREFORE...VCSH WAS INCLUDED
FOR THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS FOR WESTERN MN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY...SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF MN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD IMPEDE THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA WITH THE SHOWERS FOR
THE MN/WI TAF SITES BEING MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE.

KMSP...VFR EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. SMALL THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH







000
FXUS63 KDLH 212349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  46  56 /   0  10  70  40
INL  36  58  46  58 /   0  20  70  20
BRD  38  58  47  65 /   0  20  70  10
HYR  33  56  44  54 /   0  10  70  70
ASX  33  58  43  54 /   0   0  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KMPX 212036
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.

OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.

PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MN. MOISTURE PROFILES FROM SEVERAL MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS AT KAXN...KSTC...AND KRWF. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT
AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PUT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS. LOOKING AHEAD...RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB





000
FXUS63 KDLH 212027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LARGE STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS 015 TO 020 AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS AT ALL SITES IN NEXT FEW
HRS. OTHERWISE...A VFR FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WRN TERMINALS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  46  56 /   0  10  70  40
INL  36  58  46  58 /   0  20  70  20
BRD  38  58  47  65 /   0  20  70  10
HYR  33  56  44  54 /   0  10  70  70
ASX  33  58  43  54 /   0   0  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








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