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000
FXUS63 KDLH 041145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SEEN SOME FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOP WITH AS LOW AS IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE SUN RISES. TODAY WILL SEE VFR
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 041145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SEEN SOME FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOP WITH AS LOW AS IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE SUN RISES. TODAY WILL SEE VFR
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMPX 041140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
KEEPING COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY
CLOUDS IN SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 50S CWFA- WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A
FEW SPORADIC READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TDA AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN
MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING
RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A CAPABLE COMBINATION IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SW THRU
TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT. HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN
CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG
WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG BECOME WNW 5-10 KT BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TNGT. SOME MIDLVL FAIR WX CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
BEFORE SKIES GO SKC OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
KEEPING COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY
CLOUDS IN SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 50S CWFA- WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A
FEW SPORADIC READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TDA AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN
MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING
RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A CAPABLE COMBINATION IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SW THRU
TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT. HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN
CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG
WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG BECOME WNW 5-10 KT BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TNGT. SOME MIDLVL FAIR WX CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
BEFORE SKIES GO SKC OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
KEEPING COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY
CLOUDS IN SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 50S CWFA- WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A
FEW SPORADIC READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TDA AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN
MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING
RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A CAPABLE COMBINATION IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SW THRU
TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT. HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN
CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG
WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG BECOME WNW 5-10 KT BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TNGT. SOME MIDLVL FAIR WX CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
BEFORE SKIES GO SKC OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
KEEPING COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY
CLOUDS IN SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 50S CWFA- WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A
FEW SPORADIC READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TDA AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN
MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING
RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A CAPABLE COMBINATION IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SW THRU
TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT. HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN
CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG
WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG BECOME WNW 5-10 KT BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TNGT. SOME MIDLVL FAIR WX CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
BEFORE SKIES GO SKC OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
KEEPING COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY
CLOUDS IN SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 50S CWFA- WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A
FEW SPORADIC READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TDA AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN
MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING
RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A CAPABLE COMBINATION IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SW THRU
TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT. HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN
CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG
WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG BECOME WNW 5-10 KT BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TNGT. SOME MIDLVL FAIR WX CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
BEFORE SKIES GO SKC OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 041140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
KEEPING COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY
CLOUDS IN SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 50S CWFA- WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A
FEW SPORADIC READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TDA AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN
MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING
RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A CAPABLE COMBINATION IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SW THRU
TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT. HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN
CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG
WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ATOP THE AREA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG BECOME WNW 5-10 KT BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TNGT. SOME MIDLVL FAIR WX CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
BEFORE SKIES GO SKC OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 040912
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS KEEPING
COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY CLOUDS IN
SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S CWFA-
WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A FEW SPORADIC
READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TDA AS HIGH PRES
EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY FROM THE W
WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A
CAPABLE COMBINATION IN ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN
OFF TO THE SW THRU TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT.
HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT MEANS TEMPS WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS
EARLY TUE MRNG WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SC IN WISC WILL BE EXITING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. VERY WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MN...WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM. REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT W OR NW. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
MN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MN WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT NW WINDS
BUT WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE W AT AROUND 5 KTS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING BUT MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS...WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 10 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040912
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED HIGH PRES AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
THIS MRNG UNDERNEATH PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS KEEPING
COOL/DRY AIR OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS MRNG WITH BARELY ANY CLOUDS IN
SIGHT OR PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S CWFA-
WIDE /OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WITH EVEN A FEW SPORADIC
READINGS IN THE 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TDA AS HIGH PRES
EXITS TO THE SE. HOWEVER...H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY FROM THE W
WHICH MEANS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN MN. MOCLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING RIDGE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WMFNT AND A
CAPABLE COMBINATION IN ORDER TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...WILL REMAIN
OFF TO THE SW THRU TNGT SO HAVE KEPT THE CWFA DRY THRU TNGT.
HOWEVER...THE INCRS IN CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT MEANS TEMPS WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. LOWS
EARLY TUE MRNG WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TRANSITION...WE`LL BREAK OUT OF THE
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT COMPLEX STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS WAVE WAS TO SHIFT THE
FORCING/SATURATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR REACHING
SOUTHERN MN. SO...INCREASED POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AS THE
GFS/EC/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERLY
TRACK. DECREASED POPS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH IOWA...IMPLYING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST THROUGH MN.
THE EC SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT LIFTS THE FRONT AS
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...AS
THE CANADIAN AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM/GFS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
LOW AND FRONT TRACK DOES COME TO FRUITION...WE`LL HAVE A DECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" OR MORE...BROAD LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO SEE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE COMING TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES...BUT AT THIS POINT WE DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THAT SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC/GFS FOR BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ON THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED THE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...BUT
STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH A
FEATURE LIKE THIS...EMBEDDED IN A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BUILD
IN...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SC IN WISC WILL BE EXITING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. VERY WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MN...WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM. REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT W OR NW. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
MN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MN WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT NW WINDS
BUT WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE W AT AROUND 5 KTS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING BUT MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS...WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 10 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /   0   0   0  60
INL  70  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040547
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  53  72 /   0   0  20  30
INL  48  72  51  72 /   0   0  30  30
BRD  53  78  54  77 /   0  10  30  30
HYR  49  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  52  74  54  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...HUYCK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040547
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  53  72 /   0   0  20  30
INL  48  72  51  72 /   0   0  30  30
BRD  53  78  54  77 /   0  10  30  30
HYR  49  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  52  74  54  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040429
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 040429
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040429
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040429
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040429
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 040429
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040404
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SC IN WISC WILL BE EXITING EARLY INTHE
PERIOD...THEN JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. VERY WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MN...WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM. REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT W OR NW. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
MN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MN WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT NW WINDS
BUT WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE W AT AROUND 5 KTS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING BUT MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS...WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 10 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KMPX 040404
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SC IN WISC WILL BE EXITING EARLY INTHE
PERIOD...THEN JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. VERY WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MN...WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM. REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT W OR NW. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
MN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MN WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT NW WINDS
BUT WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE W AT AROUND 5 KTS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING BUT MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS...WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 10 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 040404
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SC IN WISC WILL BE EXITING EARLY INTHE
PERIOD...THEN JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. VERY WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MN...WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM. REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT W OR NW. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS
MN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MN WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT NW WINDS
BUT WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE W AT AROUND 5 KTS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING BUT MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS...WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 10 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032355
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032355
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032325
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CU WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING... AND
NW WINDS WILL TAPER OFF. SOME SECTIONS IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN MAY SEE VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY WHEN RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS MN.
WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 10 KTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE NW. SPEEDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032325
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CU WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING... AND
NW WINDS WILL TAPER OFF. SOME SECTIONS IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN MAY SEE VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY WHEN RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS MN.
WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 10 KTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE NW. SPEEDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KMPX 032325
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CU WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING... AND
NW WINDS WILL TAPER OFF. SOME SECTIONS IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN MAY SEE VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY WHEN RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS MN.
WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 10 KTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE NW. SPEEDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032325
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...
BUT THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING
OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
GFS/S 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...
BUT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST...
AND IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A
PEACEMAKER AND COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST
POSSIBILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA... BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING... LOCATION... AND AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE
AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CU WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING... AND
NW WINDS WILL TAPER OFF. SOME SECTIONS IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN MAY SEE VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY WHEN RIDGE AXIS BEGINS MOVING ACROSS MN.
WEST CENTRAL WISC MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KT GUSTS FROM THE NW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING BELOW 10 KTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE NW. SPEEDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 032322
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 032322
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032322
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 032322
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  52  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  45  71 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  50  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  52  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  45  71 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  50  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  52  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  45  71 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  50  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  52  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  45  71 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  50  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KDLH 032032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  52  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  45  71 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  50  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD... BUT
THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON
SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN... WITH ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS/S 12Z RUN
WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE... BUT MAINTAINS A
SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER. THE NAM IS
SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT WITH ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA BORDER AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST... AND IS ALSO SLOWER
THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A PEACEMAKER AND
COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES LITTLE MORE
THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST POSSIBILITIES ARE
PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...
BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING... LOCATION... AND
AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON
DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN
SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES
TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE
POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT050-070 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW
WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 18-24 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN WI.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 032013
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER
MN AND WI. THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CU/SC FROM MILLE LACS TO RED WING
ON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU/SC
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PRETTY
MUCH ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
REACHED THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT THIS SAME RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND EXTEND MORE INTO WESTERN WI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE AROUND 60 IS INDICATED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD... BUT
THAT WOULD STILL BE AN INACCURATE STATEMENT. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON
SOME ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN... WITH ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
QUEBEC. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS/S 12Z RUN
WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE... BUT MAINTAINS A
SIMILAR TRACK AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA... ALBEIT 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER. THE NAM IS
SIMILAR BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS... AND MORE COMPACT WITH ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION... AND HOLDS PCPN CLOSER TO THE IOWA BORDER AS A RESULT.
THE ECMWF FOCUSES THINGS FARTHER NORTH/WEST... AND IS ALSO SLOWER
THAN THE GFS... WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A PEACEMAKER AND
COMPRISES WITH ALL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES LITTLE MORE
THAN INDICATE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST POSSIBILITIES ARE
PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM... ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN... THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...
BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING... LOCATION... AND
AMPLITUDE. THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ON
DETAILS IS FRIDAY... WITH MOST GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN
SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. SO... FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
HAVE THE LOWEST POPS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE... DISAGREEMENTS ON LOW CONFIDENCE STILL LEND THEMSELVES
TOWARD BRACKETING A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW/MID CHANCE
POPS. AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD... IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS COULD WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT050-070 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW
WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 18-24 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN WI.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031759
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW
WINDS IN MIXING LAYER APPROACHING AND EVEN SURPASSING 30KTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
IN NWRN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031759
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW
WINDS IN MIXING LAYER APPROACHING AND EVEN SURPASSING 30KTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
IN NWRN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031759
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW
WINDS IN MIXING LAYER APPROACHING AND EVEN SURPASSING 30KTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
IN NWRN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031759
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW
WINDS IN MIXING LAYER APPROACHING AND EVEN SURPASSING 30KTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
IN NWRN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT050-070 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW
WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 18-24 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN WI.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT050-070 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW
WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 18-24 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN WI.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT050-070 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW
WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 18-24 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN WI.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT050-070 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW
WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 18-24 KNOTS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN WI.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031621 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPCIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED
NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW WINDS IN
MOXING LAYER APPRACHING AND EVEN SUPRASSING 30KTS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE IN NWRN
WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT INL AND MAYBE
HIB/DLH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHICH COULD IMPACT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR...BUT
INTENSITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND DURATION BRIEF FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO...DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE
SINCE THESE CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031621 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPCIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED
NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW WINDS IN
MOXING LAYER APPRACHING AND EVEN SUPRASSING 30KTS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE IN NWRN
WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT INL AND MAYBE
HIB/DLH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHICH COULD IMPACT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR...BUT
INTENSITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND DURATION BRIEF FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO...DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE
SINCE THESE CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031621 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...BUT
ESPCIALLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED
NEARING 30 MPH. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW WINDS IN
MOXING LAYER APPRACHING AND EVEN SUPRASSING 30KTS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR MORE UPDATES AS MAY NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE IN NWRN
WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT INL AND MAYBE
HIB/DLH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHICH COULD IMPACT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR...BUT
INTENSITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND DURATION BRIEF FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO...DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE
SINCE THESE CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



000
FXUS63 KDLH 031129
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT INL AND MAYBE
HIB/DLH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHICH COULD IMPACT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR...BUT
INTENSITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND DURATION BRIEF FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO...DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
DLH/HIB/HYR...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE
SINCE THESE CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS SET AS WRN CANADIAN HIGH PRES MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. FEW/SCT MIDLVL STRATOCU POSSIBLE OVER WRN WI AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LARGE UPR LVL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
CANADA. NW WINDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY LATE MRNG THRU THIS AFTN
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN THIS EVE AND TNGT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS SET AS WRN CANADIAN HIGH PRES MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. FEW/SCT MIDLVL STRATOCU POSSIBLE OVER WRN WI AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LARGE UPR LVL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
CANADA. NW WINDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY LATE MRNG THRU THIS AFTN
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN THIS EVE AND TNGT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 031100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS SET AS WRN CANADIAN HIGH PRES MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. FEW/SCT MIDLVL STRATOCU POSSIBLE OVER WRN WI AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LARGE UPR LVL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
CANADA. NW WINDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY LATE MRNG THRU THIS AFTN
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN THIS EVE AND TNGT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



000
FXUS63 KMPX 031100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE
E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR
LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR
LOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
E. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT
INTO TUE MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS
TDA WILL HIT THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR
50S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS SET AS WRN CANADIAN HIGH PRES MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. FEW/SCT MIDLVL STRATOCU POSSIBLE OVER WRN WI AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LARGE UPR LVL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
CANADA. NW WINDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY LATE MRNG THRU THIS AFTN
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN THIS EVE AND TNGT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030853
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE E
OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR LOW
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR LOW
MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE E. THE
UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT WEST
EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT INTO TUE
MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS TDA WILL HIT
THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR 50S...AND THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMEPRATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS
FOR HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGRESSING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER
IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW
SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS
UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE GUIDANCE IN FUTURE RUNS.


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 030849
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE E
OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR LOW
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR LOW
MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE E. THE
UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT WEST
EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT INTO TUE
MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS TDA WILL HIT
THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR 50S...AND THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMEPRATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE.


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KMPX 030849
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CDFNT FROM THE ERN GRT
LKS WSWWD OVER SRN MI TO NRN IL AND SRN IA. IT IS THIS FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY UPR LVL LOW TO THE E
OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THAT SAID...SOME WOBBLING OF THE LARGE UPR LOW
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING ARND THE UPR LOW
MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTN BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE E. THE
UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT WEST
EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD...MAKING FOR CLR SKIES UPCOMING TNGT INTO TUE
MRNG. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE START...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. HIGHS TDA WILL HIT
THE MID-UPR 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS CAP OUT IN THE LWR 50S...AND THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS EARLY TUE MRNG IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND PLEASANT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FED DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WITH US THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMEPRATURES
APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS CU RULE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MURKY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WAS
PRONOUNCED. WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THETA-E ADVECTION AND PV
ADVECTION CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
MN...THE EC HOLDS THAT ACTIVITY OFF COMPLETELY...AND THE NAM IS A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM...MEANING
BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLOWER...BUT WITH ALL THE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...KEPT SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO EXTREME WESTERN MN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE EC AND CANADIAN INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN WORKING A
MID LEVEL WAVE FROM ND ACROSS MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS WANTS THE PRECIP CONFINED TO SW MN WITH
THE VORTICITY MAX FROM THE POTENTIAL PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE EC AND GFS FINALLY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING BROAD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IN REALITY...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
LOT OF 20-40 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT ONCE THE GUIDANCE CAN START TO OFFER A BETTER
SENSE OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO ACTUALLY OCCUR...POPS WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CONSOLIDATED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AND HOW THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
HANDLING THE WAVES WE FIRST MUST DEAL WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
NORTHERN MN...BUT DIFFER IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE GENERIC
ALLBLEND OF THE MODELS NOW SMOTHERS THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20-30 POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. WE`LL HAVE TO CARRY THESE LOW
END/LOW CONFIDENCE POPS UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE GAINED FROM THE
GUIDANCE.


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KDLH 030840
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THRU MONDAY. 5-10 KT WNW WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY 13-16Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-
22KT RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW..ESPECIALLY AT KDLH/KBRD.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER..CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE VFR..BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINL AND
PERHAPS KHIB/KDLH IS POSSIBLE. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS..EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE
HEATING..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM APPEAR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY PRECIP ON MONDAY ARE
KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KDLH 030840
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THRU MONDAY. 5-10 KT WNW WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY 13-16Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-
22KT RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW..ESPECIALLY AT KDLH/KBRD.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER..CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE VFR..BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINL AND
PERHAPS KHIB/KDLH IS POSSIBLE. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS..EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE
HEATING..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM APPEAR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY PRECIP ON MONDAY ARE
KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030526
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DULUTH CWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP NW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY..WITH TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE RATHER EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM US AND ITS POTENTIAL
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND MIXING DEPTH ON MONDAY..WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON WINDS/GUSTS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN..WE DID INCREASE SKY COVER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE UPDATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA..AS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLEARLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NE MN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH..BUT GIVEN
SUSTAINED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BELOW 700 MB..WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..INCLUDING MOST OF NW WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IT
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND IN PARTICULAR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND BOUNDARY WATER
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THRU MONDAY. 5-10 KT WNW WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY 13-16Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-
22KT RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW..ESPECIALLY AT KDLH/KBRD.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER..CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE VFR..BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINL AND
PERHAPS KHIB/KDLH IS POSSIBLE. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS..EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE
HEATING..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM APPEAR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY PRECIP ON MONDAY ARE
KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  70  51  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  67  44  71 /   0  10   0   0
BRD  50  75  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  70  46  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  52  68  50  73 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030526
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DULUTH CWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP NW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY..WITH TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE RATHER EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM US AND ITS POTENTIAL
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND MIXING DEPTH ON MONDAY..WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON WINDS/GUSTS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN..WE DID INCREASE SKY COVER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE UPDATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA..AS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLEARLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NE MN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH..BUT GIVEN
SUSTAINED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BELOW 700 MB..WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..INCLUDING MOST OF NW WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IT
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND IN PARTICULAR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND BOUNDARY WATER
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THRU MONDAY. 5-10 KT WNW WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY 13-16Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-
22KT RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW..ESPECIALLY AT KDLH/KBRD.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER..CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE VFR..BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINL AND
PERHAPS KHIB/KDLH IS POSSIBLE. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS..EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE
HEATING..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM APPEAR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY PRECIP ON MONDAY ARE
KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  70  51  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  67  44  71 /   0  10   0   0
BRD  50  75  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  70  46  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  52  68  50  73 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KMPX 030400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO
ON MONDAY. A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH)
WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND... WITH RUN TO RUN
CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND QUITE A BIG OF SPREAD IN
THE GEFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVES AND
POSITION/TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL RIDING KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE DETAILS START TO DIVERGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS A
CUTOFF RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN FLUX THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD... WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON IF/HOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. ALLOWING SOME CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON A SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN COMPARISON TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM... AND RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SHOWING... WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS
SHOWED. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WE ULTIMATELY SHOULD ONLY NEED TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF DISCRETE
CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DIAL IN ON THINGS AND ALLOW FOR
REMOVAL OF POPS DURING SOME OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSENSUS ON BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ACTION SHIFTING
NORTH/EAST OF US. BY SUNDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
AGREED-UPON UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS... HELPING TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THIS IDEA... WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030209 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DULUTH CWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP NW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY..WITH TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE RATHER EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM US AND ITS POTENTIAL
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND MIXING DEPTH ON MONDAY..WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON WINDS/GUSTS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN..WE DID INCREASE SKY COVER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE UPDATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA..AS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLEARLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NE MN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH..BUT GIVEN
SUSTAINED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BELOW 700 MB..WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..INCLUDING MOST OF NW WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IT
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND IN PARTICULAR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND BOUNDARY WATER
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  30   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030209 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DULUTH CWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP NW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY..WITH TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE RATHER EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM US AND ITS POTENTIAL
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND MIXING DEPTH ON MONDAY..WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON WINDS/GUSTS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN..WE DID INCREASE SKY COVER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE UPDATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA..AS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLEARLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NE MN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH..BUT GIVEN
SUSTAINED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BELOW 700 MB..WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..INCLUDING MOST OF NW WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IT
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND IN PARTICULAR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND BOUNDARY WATER
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  30   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030209 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DULUTH CWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP NW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY..WITH TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE RATHER EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM US AND ITS POTENTIAL
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND MIXING DEPTH ON MONDAY..WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON WINDS/GUSTS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN..WE DID INCREASE SKY COVER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE UPDATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA..AS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLEARLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NE MN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH..BUT GIVEN
SUSTAINED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BELOW 700 MB..WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..INCLUDING MOST OF NW WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IT
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND IN PARTICULAR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND BOUNDARY WATER
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  30   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KDLH 030209 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

DULUTH CWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP NW FLOW UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY..WITH TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE RATHER EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM US AND ITS POTENTIAL
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND MIXING DEPTH ON MONDAY..WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON WINDS/GUSTS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN..WE DID INCREASE SKY COVER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE UPDATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA..AS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL CLEARLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NE MN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH..BUT GIVEN
SUSTAINED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BELOW 700 MB..WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..INCLUDING MOST OF NW WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IT
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND IN PARTICULAR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND BOUNDARY WATER
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  30   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KMPX 022358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO
ON MONDAY. A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH)
WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND... WITH RUN TO RUN
CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND QUITE A BIG OF SPREAD IN
THE GEFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVES AND
POSITION/TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL RIDING KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE DETAILS START TO DIVERGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS A
CUTOFF RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN FLUX THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD... WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON IF/HOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. ALLOWING SOME CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON A SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN COMPARISON TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM... AND RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SHOWING... WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS
SHOWED. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WE ULTIMATELY SHOULD ONLY NEED TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF DISCRETE
CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DIAL IN ON THINGS AND ALLOW FOR
REMOVAL OF POPS DURING SOME OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSENSUS ON BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ACTION SHIFTING
NORTH/EAST OF US. BY SUNDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
AGREED-UPON UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS... HELPING TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THIS IDEA... WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB




000
FXUS63 KMPX 022358
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO
ON MONDAY. A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH)
WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND... WITH RUN TO RUN
CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND QUITE A BIG OF SPREAD IN
THE GEFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVES AND
POSITION/TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL RIDING KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE DETAILS START TO DIVERGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS A
CUTOFF RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN FLUX THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD... WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON IF/HOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. ALLOWING SOME CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON A SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN COMPARISON TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM... AND RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SHOWING... WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS
SHOWED. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WE ULTIMATELY SHOULD ONLY NEED TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF DISCRETE
CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DIAL IN ON THINGS AND ALLOW FOR
REMOVAL OF POPS DURING SOME OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSENSUS ON BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ACTION SHIFTING
NORTH/EAST OF US. BY SUNDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
AGREED-UPON UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS... HELPING TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THIS IDEA... WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT..WITH A TEMPORARY CESSATION OF GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER..WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK BY 10-20 DEGREES DURING
THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING..WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-22KT
RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF NW
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY..AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO KINL AND PERHAPS
KHIB/KDLH. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY..THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE HEATING..LIKELY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /   0  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDLH 022004
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE KDLH/KBRD/KHYR AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR GRADUALLY POURS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS EVEN COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE KINL FORECAST...AND MIGHT NEED TO ALSO
INCLUDE MVFR FOR KHIB. THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN
CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /  10  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022004
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE KDLH/KBRD/KHYR AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR GRADUALLY POURS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS EVEN COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE KINL FORECAST...AND MIGHT NEED TO ALSO
INCLUDE MVFR FOR KHIB. THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN
CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /  10  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



000
FXUS63 KMPX 021937
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO
ON MONDAY. A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH)
WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND... WITH RUN TO RUN
CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND QUITE A BIG OF SPREAD IN
THE GEFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVES AND
POSITION/TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL RIDING KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE DETAILS START TO DIVERGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS A
CUTOFF RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN FLUX THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD... WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON IF/HOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. ALLOWING SOME CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON A SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN COMPARISON TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM... AND RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SHOWING... WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS
SHOWED. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WE ULTIMATELY SHOULD ONLY NEED TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF DISCRETE
CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DIAL IN ON THINGS AND ALLOW FOR
REMOVAL OF POPS DURING SOME OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSENSUS ON BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ACTION SHIFTING
NORTH/EAST OF US. BY SUNDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
AGREED-UPON UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS... HELPING TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THIS IDEA... WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AT TAF ISSUANCE AND
WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
THIS MORNING HAS YIELDED A SMALL BKN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL MOVE PAST KRNH AND KMSP BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH KEAU
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. USED A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 20Z-22Z TO
CAPTURE THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET
ACROSS MN AND WI. NAM/RAP PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS 15-18 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL AROUND 28 KNOTS.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS PUSHED UP A BIT IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...BKN OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035) WILL SKIM THE AIRFIELD
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 045-050 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS63 KMPX 021937
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO
ON MONDAY. A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH)
WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND... WITH RUN TO RUN
CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND QUITE A BIG OF SPREAD IN
THE GEFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVES AND
POSITION/TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL RIDING KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE DETAILS START TO DIVERGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS A
CUTOFF RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN FLUX THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD... WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON IF/HOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. ALLOWING SOME CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON A SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN COMPARISON TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM... AND RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SHOWING... WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS
SHOWED. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WE ULTIMATELY SHOULD ONLY NEED TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF DISCRETE
CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DIAL IN ON THINGS AND ALLOW FOR
REMOVAL OF POPS DURING SOME OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSENSUS ON BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ACTION SHIFTING
NORTH/EAST OF US. BY SUNDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
AGREED-UPON UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS... HELPING TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THIS IDEA... WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AT TAF ISSUANCE AND
WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
THIS MORNING HAS YIELDED A SMALL BKN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL MOVE PAST KRNH AND KMSP BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH KEAU
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. USED A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 20Z-22Z TO
CAPTURE THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET
ACROSS MN AND WI. NAM/RAP PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS 15-18 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL AROUND 28 KNOTS.
HENCE...WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS PUSHED UP A BIT IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...BKN OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035) WILL SKIM THE AIRFIELD
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 045-050 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STORM INTENSITY HAS WANED LATE THIS MORNING BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING...EXPANDING THEM INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AT 350 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE SEEN SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF
INCH...AT LITTLEFORK AND CRANE LAKE. THE STRONGEST STORM AT 340 AM
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...HEADING TOWARD THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW STORMS HAD JUST
STARTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BRAINERD. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S THIS MORNING.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MN. SPC MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS INDICATE THE AREA
MOST RIPE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THAT AREA. THE GUST FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE IRON RANGE WILL BE ONE FEATURE TO WATCH. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 FROM THE IRON RANGE SOUTHWARD AND
MOST UNSTABLE LI WERE -9 ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. THERE IS SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE AS WELL.

TODAY...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THE BEST
FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF
NW WI TODAY...WITH A MARGINAL FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD BRAINERD AND
DULUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTH TO 80 OR A
BIT HIGHER SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVER STORMS WILL BE IN NW WI
DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S TO 50S. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A TIME...BEFORE A STRATOCU DECK
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65
IN THE ARROWHEAD TO 70 TO 75 FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERALL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MUCH COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA GRADUALLY BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND A CLOUDS UPPER LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN ALOFT MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPS UP ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ASSESSMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO JUST INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE WX
FORECAST. CHANCES WILL BE BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...MORE
DETAILS IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HELD BACK FROM GOING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR LOWS
BECAUSE OF A CONCERN WITH CLOUD COVER...BUT IF SKIES ARE CLEAR COULD
SEE A FEW COLD SPOTS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FALL TO THE LOW 40S OR
PERHAPS AN UPPER 30 OBSERVATION OR TWO.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A WASHOUT AT ALL. AT
UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO MOVES NORTHEAST
WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVINGS EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BUT EACH HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TAKE. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THURSDAY MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST PER
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION WHILE SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO
FRONT POSITION DEPICTS DIFFERENT TIMING AND QPF...BUT IN GENERAL
GUIDANCE TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIP HIGHEST THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCES ABOUND GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MILDER LOWS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE KDLH/KBRD/KHYR AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR GRADUALLY POURS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS EVEN COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE KINL FORECAST...AND MIGHT NEED TO ALSO
INCLUDE MVFR FOR KHIB. THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN
CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  52  70  52 /  50  10  20  10
INL  73  48  66  47 /  20  10  20  10
BRD  79  51  76  49 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  79  49  72  49 /  50  10  20  10
ASX  78  52  72  51 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



000
FXUS63 KMPX 021736
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER ERN SD THIS
MRNG WITH A WMFNT EXTENDING SEWD AND A CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
THIS CENTER. ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
WMFNT AND A LOCALIZED MIDLVL JET EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE E AND WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY START TO THE
DAY. KMPX RADAR SHOWS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITHIN MOSTLY WEAK
ECHOES DRIVING SEWD FROM NERN ND AND NRN MN. ASIDE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN
THE WFO MPX CWFA. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING
WILL STILL PROMOTE 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR HIGHLIGHTED OVER FAR ERN
MN INTO WRN WI THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE CWFA...BUT STILL BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR SOME ISOLD- SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TDA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT-LOW CHC POPS IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS THE CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD ACRS THE REGION
TDA...THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY AND ALL PRECIP BY THIS EVE.
COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION TNGT...STARTING A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE REGION GOING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TDA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE 80-90 DEGREES NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACRS THE CWFA TDA.
WITH LATE AFTN TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...THIS WILL START CAA THAT
WILL BE FELT FOR TNGT. LOWS TNGT INTO EARLY MON MRNG WILL FALL TO
THE 50S ACRS THE CWFA...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
LOWS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MEANING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE WILL
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
OWING TO THE DRY AIR MASS COMING IN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALL WEEK...SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ONE DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THAT COMES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OVER
THE ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A DECENT
RAINFALL MAKER. AS THE TROUGH PUSHED INTO MN...A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STREAK AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL PLACE THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...AND WE MAKE A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS
WELL. BEST LI VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
WELL. BEING 4 DAYS AWAY HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT
THAT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW COULD WREAK HAVOC ON THE ENTIRE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. SO...DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH FOR NOW SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LITTER THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN SEEING ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
BE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS YIELDED A SMALL BKN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH WILL
MOVE PAST KRNH AND KMSP BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY EAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH KEAU HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. USED A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 20Z-22Z TO CAPTURE THE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET ACROSS MN
AND WI. NAM/RAP PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS 15-18 KNOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL AROUND 28 KNOTS. HENCE...WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS PUSHED UP A BIT IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...BKN OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035) WILL SKIM THE AIRFIELD
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 045-050 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021736
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER ERN SD THIS
MRNG WITH A WMFNT EXTENDING SEWD AND A CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
THIS CENTER. ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
WMFNT AND A LOCALIZED MIDLVL JET EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE E AND WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY START TO THE
DAY. KMPX RADAR SHOWS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITHIN MOSTLY WEAK
ECHOES DRIVING SEWD FROM NERN ND AND NRN MN. ASIDE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN
THE WFO MPX CWFA. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING
WILL STILL PROMOTE 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR HIGHLIGHTED OVER FAR ERN
MN INTO WRN WI THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE CWFA...BUT STILL BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR SOME ISOLD- SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TDA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT-LOW CHC POPS IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS THE CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD ACRS THE REGION
TDA...THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY AND ALL PRECIP BY THIS EVE.
COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION TNGT...STARTING A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE REGION GOING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TDA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE 80-90 DEGREES NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACRS THE CWFA TDA.
WITH LATE AFTN TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...THIS WILL START CAA THAT
WILL BE FELT FOR TNGT. LOWS TNGT INTO EARLY MON MRNG WILL FALL TO
THE 50S ACRS THE CWFA...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
LOWS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MEANING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE WILL
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
OWING TO THE DRY AIR MASS COMING IN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALL WEEK...SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ONE DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THAT COMES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OVER
THE ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A DECENT
RAINFALL MAKER. AS THE TROUGH PUSHED INTO MN...A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STREAK AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL PLACE THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...AND WE MAKE A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS
WELL. BEST LI VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
WELL. BEING 4 DAYS AWAY HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT
THAT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW COULD WREAK HAVOC ON THE ENTIRE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. SO...DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH FOR NOW SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LITTER THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN SEEING ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
BE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS YIELDED A SMALL BKN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH WILL
MOVE PAST KRNH AND KMSP BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY EAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH KEAU HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. USED A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 20Z-22Z TO CAPTURE THE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET ACROSS MN
AND WI. NAM/RAP PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS 15-18 KNOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL AROUND 28 KNOTS. HENCE...WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS PUSHED UP A BIT IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...BKN OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035) WILL SKIM THE AIRFIELD
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 045-050 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021736
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER ERN SD THIS
MRNG WITH A WMFNT EXTENDING SEWD AND A CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
THIS CENTER. ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
WMFNT AND A LOCALIZED MIDLVL JET EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE E AND WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY START TO THE
DAY. KMPX RADAR SHOWS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITHIN MOSTLY WEAK
ECHOES DRIVING SEWD FROM NERN ND AND NRN MN. ASIDE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN
THE WFO MPX CWFA. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING
WILL STILL PROMOTE 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR HIGHLIGHTED OVER FAR ERN
MN INTO WRN WI THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE CWFA...BUT STILL BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR SOME ISOLD- SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TDA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT-LOW CHC POPS IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS THE CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD ACRS THE REGION
TDA...THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY AND ALL PRECIP BY THIS EVE.
COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION TNGT...STARTING A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE REGION GOING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TDA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE 80-90 DEGREES NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACRS THE CWFA TDA.
WITH LATE AFTN TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...THIS WILL START CAA THAT
WILL BE FELT FOR TNGT. LOWS TNGT INTO EARLY MON MRNG WILL FALL TO
THE 50S ACRS THE CWFA...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
LOWS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MEANING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE WILL
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
OWING TO THE DRY AIR MASS COMING IN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALL WEEK...SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ONE DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THAT COMES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OVER
THE ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A DECENT
RAINFALL MAKER. AS THE TROUGH PUSHED INTO MN...A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STREAK AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL PLACE THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...AND WE MAKE A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS
WELL. BEST LI VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
WELL. BEING 4 DAYS AWAY HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT
THAT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW COULD WREAK HAVOC ON THE ENTIRE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. SO...DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH FOR NOW SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LITTER THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN SEEING ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
BE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS YIELDED A SMALL BKN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH WILL
MOVE PAST KRNH AND KMSP BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY EAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH KEAU HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. USED A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 20Z-22Z TO CAPTURE THE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET ACROSS MN
AND WI. NAM/RAP PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS 15-18 KNOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL AROUND 28 KNOTS. HENCE...WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS PUSHED UP A BIT IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...BKN OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035) WILL SKIM THE AIRFIELD
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 045-050 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KMPX 021736
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER ERN SD THIS
MRNG WITH A WMFNT EXTENDING SEWD AND A CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
THIS CENTER. ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
WMFNT AND A LOCALIZED MIDLVL JET EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE E AND WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY START TO THE
DAY. KMPX RADAR SHOWS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITHIN MOSTLY WEAK
ECHOES DRIVING SEWD FROM NERN ND AND NRN MN. ASIDE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN
THE WFO MPX CWFA. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING
WILL STILL PROMOTE 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR HIGHLIGHTED OVER FAR ERN
MN INTO WRN WI THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE CWFA...BUT STILL BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR SOME ISOLD- SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TDA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT-LOW CHC POPS IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS THE CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD ACRS THE REGION
TDA...THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY AND ALL PRECIP BY THIS EVE.
COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION TNGT...STARTING A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE REGION GOING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TDA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE 80-90 DEGREES NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACRS THE CWFA TDA.
WITH LATE AFTN TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...THIS WILL START CAA THAT
WILL BE FELT FOR TNGT. LOWS TNGT INTO EARLY MON MRNG WILL FALL TO
THE 50S ACRS THE CWFA...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
LOWS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MEANING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE WILL
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
OWING TO THE DRY AIR MASS COMING IN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALL WEEK...SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ONE DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THAT COMES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OVER
THE ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A DECENT
RAINFALL MAKER. AS THE TROUGH PUSHED INTO MN...A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STREAK AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL PLACE THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...AND WE MAKE A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS AS
WELL. BEST LI VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
WELL. BEING 4 DAYS AWAY HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT
THAT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW COULD WREAK HAVOC ON THE ENTIRE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. SO...DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH FOR NOW SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LITTER THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN SEEING ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
BE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS YIELDED A SMALL BKN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH WILL
MOVE PAST KRNH AND KMSP BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY EAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH KEAU HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. USED A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 20Z-22Z TO CAPTURE THE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET ACROSS MN
AND WI. NAM/RAP PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS 15-18 KNOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL AROUND 28 KNOTS. HENCE...WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS PUSHED UP A BIT IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...BKN OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035) WILL SKIM THE AIRFIELD
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 045-050 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STORM INTENSITY HAS WANED LATE THIS MORNING BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING...EXPANDING THEM INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AT 350 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE SEEN SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF
INCH...AT LITTLEFORK AND CRANE LAKE. THE STRONGEST STORM AT 340 AM
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...HEADING TOWARD THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW STORMS HAD JUST
STARTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BRAINERD. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S THIS MORNING.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MN. SPC MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS INDICATE THE AREA
MOST RIPE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THAT AREA. THE GUST FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE IRON RANGE WILL BE ONE FEATURE TO WATCH. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 FROM THE IRON RANGE SOUTHWARD AND
MOST UNSTABLE LI WERE -9 ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. THERE IS SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE AS WELL.

TODAY...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THE BEST
FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF
NW WI TODAY...WITH A MARGINAL FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD BRAINERD AND
DULUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTH TO 80 OR A
BIT HIGHER SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVER STORMS WILL BE IN NW WI
DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S TO 50S. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A TIME...BEFORE A STRATOCU DECK
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65
IN THE ARROWHEAD TO 70 TO 75 FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERALL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MUCH COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA GRADUALLY BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND A CLOUDS UPPER LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN ALOFT MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPS UP ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ASSESSMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO JUST INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE WX
FORECAST. CHANCES WILL BE BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...MORE
DETAILS IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HELD BACK FROM GOING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR LOWS
BECAUSE OF A CONCERN WITH CLOUD COVER...BUT IF SKIES ARE CLEAR COULD
SEE A FEW COLD SPOTS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FALL TO THE LOW 40S OR
PERHAPS AN UPPER 30 OBSERVATION OR TWO.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A WASHOUT AT ALL. AT
UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO MOVES NORTHEAST
WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVINGS EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BUT EACH HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TAKE. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THURSDAY MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST PER
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION WHILE SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO
FRONT POSITION DEPICTS DIFFERENT TIMING AND QPF...BUT IN GENERAL
GUIDANCE TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIP HIGHEST THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCES ABOUND GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MILDER LOWS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS HIB
AND EVENTUALLY DLH...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT BRD BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER. AS HAS ALREADY REACHED INL...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT
INL...SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT HYR OFF
AND ON THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT MID-
LEVELS...CHANCE FOR AN MVFR CEILING AT INL BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS BROKEN DECK AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  52  70  52 /  50  10  20  10
INL  73  48  66  47 /  20  10  20  10
BRD  83  51  76  49 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  84  49  72  49 /  50  10  20  10
ASX  81  52  72  51 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STORM INTENSITY HAS WANED LATE THIS MORNING BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE HAVE UPDATED POPS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING...EXPANDING THEM INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AT 350 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE SEEN SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF
INCH...AT LITTLEFORK AND CRANE LAKE. THE STRONGEST STORM AT 340 AM
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...HEADING TOWARD THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW STORMS HAD JUST
STARTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BRAINERD. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S THIS MORNING.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MN. SPC MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS INDICATE THE AREA
MOST RIPE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FURTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THAT AREA. THE GUST FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE IRON RANGE WILL BE ONE FEATURE TO WATCH. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 FROM THE IRON RANGE SOUTHWARD AND
MOST UNSTABLE LI WERE -9 ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. THERE IS SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE AS WELL.

TODAY...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THE BEST
FORCING PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF
NW WI TODAY...WITH A MARGINAL FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD BRAINERD AND
DULUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTH TO 80 OR A
BIT HIGHER SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVER STORMS WILL BE IN NW WI
DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S TO 50S. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A TIME...BEFORE A STRATOCU DECK
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65
IN THE ARROWHEAD TO 70 TO 75 FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERALL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MUCH COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA GRADUALLY BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND A CLOUDS UPPER LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN ALOFT MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPS UP ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ASSESSMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO JUST INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE WX
FORECAST. CHANCES WILL BE BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...MORE
DETAILS IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HELD BACK FROM GOING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR LOWS
BECAUSE OF A CONCERN WITH CLOUD COVER...BUT IF SKIES ARE CLEAR COULD
SEE A FEW COLD SPOTS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FALL TO THE LOW 40S OR
PERHAPS AN UPPER 30 OBSERVATION OR TWO.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A WASHOUT AT ALL. AT
UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO MOVES NORTHEAST
WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVINGS EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BUT EACH HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TAKE. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THURSDAY MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST PER
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION WHILE SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO
FRONT POSITION DEPICTS DIFFERENT TIMING AND QPF...BUT IN GENERAL
GUIDANCE TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIP HIGHEST THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCES ABOUND GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MILDER LOWS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS HIB
AND EVENTUALLY DLH...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT BRD BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER. AS HAS ALREADY REACHED INL...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT
INL...SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT HYR OFF
AND ON THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT MID-
LEVELS...CHANCE FOR AN MVFR CEILING AT INL BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS BROKEN DECK AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  52  70  52 /  50  10  20  10
INL  73  48  66  47 /  20  10  20  10
BRD  83  51  76  49 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  84  49  72  49 /  50  10  20  10
ASX  81  52  72  51 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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